TheGonz -> RE: The Packers (2/15/2010 6:10:26 PM)
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Green Bay Packers: Is the Green Bay pass defense good enough to get to the Super Bowl? Under first-year coordinator Dom Capers, the Packers' defense spent most of the season as one of the surprise units in the league. A solid pass rush and great play from Charles Woodson helped turn the Green Bay defense into a real strength. In the playoffs, however, Green Bay got shredded by the Cardinals. Was that a one-game aberration, or did the Cardinals expose holes that can be exploited by opponents in 2010? For the season, the Packers ranked second in our DVOA rankings, so they certainly appear to be in good shape for next season. However, a closer look at how the high ranking was built up leads to possible concerns. The Packers feasted on a plethora of poor pass offenses. They played only six games against offenses in the top half of the DVOA rankings (not counting the meaningless Week 17 contest against Arizona). In four of those games -- both losses against Minnesota, the Pittsburgh loss and the Arizona playoff loss -- the Packers' defense got blasted by their opposition. Our DVOA ratings adjust for opponent, but maybe not enough in Green Bay's case. The Packers were particularly good against their worst opponents and particularly bad against very good quarterbacks. The Packers are understandably a chic pick to win the NFC next season, and the offense should remain potent as Aaron Rodgers The Packers have little internal hope for improvement. They lost cornerbacks Al Harris and Will Blackmon to injury, and both could return next season. Still, Harris is basically ancient at age 35, and his return to an elite level is highly doubtful. Even more troubling, it seems hard to imagine that Woodson, who turns 34 next season, will continue to maintain the same high level of performance. Safety Atari Bigby has improved in coverage but remains a liability. Good opponents were able to successfully attack down the middle of the field, and Bigby gets lost sometimes as he gets farther from the line of scrimmage. Absent of some major moves in the defensive secondary, it is hard to imagine the Packers will have solved these problems next year. continues to develop. The defense, as constituted, will likely be good enough to return to the playoffs; it can continue to dominate the Bears and Lions of the world. If the Packers really want to compete for a Super Bowl, however, they will have to be able to slow down top opposing pass offenses.
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