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SoMnFan -> RE: MLB General Information PT 4 (4/29/2014 5:48:52 PM)
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Karabells "hitters to be concerned about" on INSIDER
We still don't have even a full month of statistical data with which to evaluate hitters, but in a general sense, if someone is showing so little willingness to take the occasional free pass while striking out at an alarming rate, then my interest level in their prognosis will wane. Go ahead, swing and miss a lot, as Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Upton are doing, but if you earn a walk from time to time it can work. If you don’t, it’s a harbinger of doom.
So, even before April ends, here are hitters with some truly ugly walk-to-strikeout rates and how playing time and fantasy relevance can and will clearly become an issue.
• Khris Davis, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: He enters Tuesday with three home runs, six doubles and a triple that helped win Monday’s long game, which is fine, but why would a pitcher throw him anything near the strike zone when he has drawn one walk to go with 31 strikeouts (with four coming Monday)? A year ago in a small sample, he walked 11 times versus 34 whiffs. The Brewers have little outfield depth to replace Davis and don’t seem inclined to change anything with their awesome start, but Davis is borderline unplayable in an OBP format.
• Junior Lake, OF, Chicago Cubs: So you thought Lake was worth a shot after his decent 2013 performance. Still think so? Lake is hitting .206 thanks to strikeouts in nearly half his at-bats, and he isn’t walking even once a week. It’s a brutal combination. The Cubs will keep using him, but unless he’s running a lot, you shouldn’t.
• Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves: He was among the top 10 in walks a year ago, but that patience hasn’t continued, as pitchers are challenging him more and he isn’t able to catch up to fastballs. Uggla had a multihomer night in Philly a few weeks ago, and nothing since. Tommy La Stella really could be the second baseman by June.
• Will Venable, OF, San Diego Padres: I’m always willing to be more patient with one of last year’s few 20-homer, 20-steal guys, but it’s quickly getting crowded in this outfield and Venable, never a walker to start with, isn’t getting on base. That needs to change soon or he won’t play.
• Jonathan Schoop, 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles: The pending return of third baseman Manny Machado could accelerate a decision on the enticing Schoop, a 22-year-old with pop. However, one walk versus 26 strikeouts tells a larger story, one which should result in more time in the minors.
• Brad Miller, SS, Seattle Mariners: As a rookie Miller certainly didn’t embarrass himself, striking out 15.5 percent of the time. Now that rate is doubled, and combined with a 2.2 percent walk rate, it’s a wonder Nick Franklin hasn’t already usurped playing time.
• Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: It’s so obvious from watching him play, both at the plate and in the field, that’s he’s regressing fast. Phillips is overwhelmed at the plate and no longer a major contributor on the bases. Sell now if you still can.
• Nate Schierholtz, OF, Cubs: He did much of his damage last year against right-handed pitching, but those same fellows are toying with him now. He has walked one time this season.
• Chris Colabello, 1B/OF, Minnesota Twins: One of the feel-good stories of the early going, but you can lop off at least another 50 points of batting average with his lack of plate discipline. Pitchers are already figuring this out.
NL report: Updating the Bryce Harper news, he’ll need surgery on his balky thumb and could miss more than two months. Not good news. Still, with immense upside, find a DL or bench spot for him. … The St. Louis Cardinals demoted second baseman Kolten Wong late Sunday, meaning we’ll see much more of Mark Ellis. At least that’s good for Cardinals pitchers. … Cardinals outfielder Allen Craig homered Monday, his second of the season, and his batting average is approaching .200. Continue to buy low on an accomplished hitter. … Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo had his worst outing of the season, allowing three runs over six innings. Yep, that doesn’t seem so bad. Gallardo fanned only two, and his decreased K rate could become an issue. … Things are so bad with the Arizona Diamondbacks that even lefty Wade Miley, who entered Monday 7-0 with a 2.52 ERA lifetime against the Colorado Rockies, was no match. Miley allowed seven runs in six innings. Closer Addison Reed is the lone Arizona pitcher worth using while the team struggles. … Rockies first baseman Justin Morneau slugged his sixth home run Monday, his second off a lefty already and half have been in road games. The rejuvenated Morneau should be owned in all leagues by now.
AL report: Oakland Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray tossed a three-hit shutout at Texas Monday, outdueling Yu Darvish. Gray lowered his ERA to 1.76 and has that top-20 look. … Meanwhile, Darvish suffered one of the worst outings of his career, and continues to struggle against Oakland (1-7, 4.72 ERA). If you want to sit Darvish next time he faces the Athletics, go for it. … Chicago White Sox outfielder Alejandro De Aza slugged his fourth home run Monday, but the first three came in the first three games. He’s capable of a 20-homer, 20-steal season, so consider buying low. … Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi was hit hard by the White Sox and hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his past four outings. He’s in danger of returning to the minors. … Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Ryan Goins was demoted, paving the way for Chris Getz to see regular playing time. Getz isn’t much of a hitter, but he can steal bases, for those needing such things. … Minnesota Twins right-hander Alex Meyer could be moving closer to a promotion, after he fanned 11 for the second consecutive outing for Triple-A Rochester.
Closer report: Joe Smith registered his first save for the Los Angeles Angels, as expected, and there should be more to come. When will Ernesto Frieri, the most-dropped pitcher in ESPN leagues, get the job back? That’s expected as well, though not this week. Add Smith where you can. … Which team has the fewest save opportunities? It’s the Rays, with five. … One might not be surprised to learn Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Francisco Rodriguez tops all relievers on the Player Rater (12 saves), but quietly San Diego Padres right-hander Huston Street is second.
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