Mr. Ed
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https://247sports.com/college/minnesota/LongFormArticle/Minnesota-Gophers-Football-2020-prediction-preview-schedule-PJ-Fleck-win-projection-152973092/
With the Gopher Football season now in the single-digit days until they kickoff against Michigan, I suppose it's about that time to give my annual Minnesota 2020 win prediction. Last year in this article, I predicted that the Gophers would be 9-3 (they went 10-2 in the regular season) and two years ago in this piece, I had Minnesota at 7-6 (hint: they went 7-6), so it's only downhill from here, right? Expectations for Minnesota's 2020 season are pretty damn high and understandably so coming off a historic season just a year ago.
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ESPN came out with two sets of analytical metrics in the "FPI" aka their Football Power Index, plus we've got the tried and true SP+ from the great Bill Connelly. It's an interesting tale that these two metrics try to tell.
- FPI ranks Minnesota #29 in their ranks, but that only ranks eighth in the Big Ten and fourth in the West. Wisconsin and Iowa plus Northwestern (???) are all rated above Minnesota coming into the season. FPI projects the Gophers with a 4.8 and 4.2 record, with a 26.9% chance to win six games, only a 5.0% chance to win the West and 0.6% chance to win the Big Ten. I'd love to know what Northwestern projects like to justify that, but here we are.
- The SP+ ranks Minnesota #15 in their overall rankings right now, which in that case is good enough for fourth overall in the Big Ten and second in the West behind only Wisconsin. In that scenario as well, the only opponent ranked above the Gophers heading into the season would be Wisconsin. You could argue that the SP+ would favor the Gophers in seven of their eight regular season games then (I have no idea what to call the crossover week to end the season).
But on paper, this is a season where a Minnesota run to a West title may not be as outlandish as you think, with the Gophers schedule being very conducive to a Big Ten West run, but I believe the most important thing that'll determine wins and losses in this COVID year is something that's a little tougher to quantify and that's continuity. With every Big Ten team having the spring football season wiped away, I'm going to be putting a lot of stock into teams that have experienced talent coming back as all these B1G teams get this five weeks leading up to the season.
Here's a brief overview of why Minnesota has a shot in the West this fall.
- Wisconsin will be breaking in a new quarterback (QB1 from last year in Jack Coan is out indefinitely with a foot injury), RB1 Jonathan Taylor is gone to the NFL and Wisconsin doesn't have a bonafide stud ready to replace him (thoughts from Evan Flood), WR1 Quintez Cephus is gone (he torched Minnesota last year) and so are three offensive line starters. What will Wisconsin's offense look like in 2020?
- Iowa will be breaking in a brand new quarterback in Spencer Petras, loses first round linemen Tristan Wirfs and AJ Epenesa, plus back-seven defenders Kristian Welch, Dillon Doyle, Djimon Colbert, Geno Stone and Michael Ojemudia.
- Northwestern has a new quarterback in Indiana transfer Peyton Ramsey who should provide a boost to the offense, but Northwestern lost their best offensive lineman to an opt-out and their best wide receiver to Notre Dame as a transfer. They'll have a stout defense, but how do they move the ball?
- Nebraska has a hellacious schedule with Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State in their first four games, with two road games against Iowa and Purdue before they take on Minnesota to end the season. Question marks all around with Adrian Martinez, how this offense flows without JD Spielman and can Nebraska stop anyone on defense?
- Purdue gets a boost with Rondale Moore coming back to pair with David Bell to form probably the best wide receiver duo in the Big Ten, but how does Brohm's team play in the cold, plus can they stop anyone defensively?
- Illinois has their best team under Lovie Smith, but can they put it together in a pivotal year for the Fighting Illini?
Then that leaves Minnesota. They avoid the top two teams in the East with Penn State and Ohio State. Return a lot of starters on offense, and get Iowa and Michigan at home. It's not all #TeamSmellTheRoses with road games at Wisconsin and Nebraska, but all things considered, getting Maryland and Michigan for cross-over games isn't a bad draw.
I struggled immensely writing this article this year because as much as I love believing what my sources are telling me, I've only seen the 2020 version of the Gopher Football team once in nearly 11 months. That was for a March spring practice, so I haven't seen this team with my own two eyes in almost seven months. I don't like that one bit, but welcome to COVID-19 Big Ten 3.0 edition.
- The two big football questions that need answering from my perspective are:
1) Can new offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. keep this offense humming with a majority of his starters back in Tanner Morgan, Mo Ibrahim, Rashod Bateman and essentially the entire 2019 offensive line?
2) Can defensive coordinator Joe Rossi get this inexperienced defense that loses seven starters from 2019 playing as well as they did for Minnesota last season?
So this guy was spot on about the 2 big questions
Fail and Fail
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