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Bill Johanesen -> RE: General Vikes Talk (3/14/2023 5:08:27 PM)
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ORIGINAL: The Happy Norseman
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ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen
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ORIGINAL: The Happy Norseman
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ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen
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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson
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ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott
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ORIGINAL: The Happy Norseman
Kwesi appears to be building a foundation now that allows the team to make a serious run in 2024. If his approach to FA continues, a version of the following seems very likely (thanks Spotrac):
2023
- In addition to existing cuts, get rid of Harrison Smith, Dalvin Cook, and Zadarius Smith.
- Extend Hunter ($19m year), Hockenson ($14m year), Jefferson ($32m year)
2024
- The team will be $106m under the cap.
Cousins will affect that number if he's around in 2024, and the team will sign a couple of FA's this year that will affect that number, but that's still a lot of money to spend on free agents in 2024 with little to no dead money on the books.
Cleaning up the books was going to take a couple years.
Me likey.
The hell we are in this year will not be our hell in the future.
It's 106M with only 26 guys signed. Have to count 51.
Still in good shape though.
A serious run in 2024?
106 minus dead cap, minus a QB, minus this year's acquisitions (like Bradbury), minus half a team not signed, and Darrisaw's contract looming.
WHY ARE PEOPLE MAKING CONCLUSIONS OF THE 2024 CAP STATUS WHEN WE JUST STARTED FREE AGENCY AND NEED TO GET UNDER THE CAP?
The $106 includes dead cap money. You can assume the team will keep Z Smith this year, and keep Dalvin into 2024, and keep Hunter on his existing deal, but the way Kwesi has approached FA so far doesn't indicate that those things will happen. The number changes with Cousins reworked contract, but that's likely the only substantial dead money on the books in 2024. Kwesi is cutting dead-weight bad contracts and signing guys to cheap contracts or one year prove it deals. Darrisaw's contract doesn't need to be addressed until 2025. Depending on how they structure JJ's, Hunter's, and Hockenson's deals, the team could have well over $106mil to work with in 2024.
Per bolded, he has no other choice!
You built your $106 million premise on assumptions, and things like "depending" on how they structure huge contracts. Well sure. But none of those contracts have been done.
And you ignore that's for only (currently) 27 players so we need to sign 26 more for our "serious run" in 2024.
Were you using Overthecap? Note 2024 cap surplus is currently at $97 million (down $9 million in a few hours... was that Cousins dead cap or Bradbury or ???). Spottrac has the 2024 surplus at $46 million.
So how can you say For 2024 The team will be $106m under the cap when 2023 free agency hasn't even concluded? As for a 2024 serious run, I can't imagine what you are dreaming.
Using Spotrac:
As of now, after Kirk's new contract, but before Bradbury's contract has been entered, in 2024 the Vikings can be $90mil under the cap if:
- they cut Z Smith, H Smith, D Cook this year.
- they sign Hunter to a deal at ($19mil per), Hockensen ($14mil per), JJ ($32mil per) - All realistic numbers.
In 2023 the bottom 26 guys on the roster accounted approx $24mil against the cap.
Add it all up and that's approximately $66mil to use in free agency on impact free agents. And depending on the structures of TJ, JJ, and DH's contracts the number could be much higher.
Like I said originally, Kwesi appears to be building a foundation to make a run in 2024 - and beyond. Right now, the Vikings have a top 10 offense. They lost Thielen, who was pretty much a non factor last year anyway, and should replace Cook with Mattison. There's no reason to believe they can't have a top 10 offense again in 2023. On the flip side, the Vikings had one of the worst defenses in the league last year. $66-$70mil can go a long way to improving the defense in 2024 with impact free agents.
And I'm not "dreaming" about a run in 2024, I'm simply pointing out that this appears to be Kwesi's strategy. Keep a good offense in tact and tear down a horrible defense and use cap savings in 2024 to build the d back up.
No idea what the plan is at QB though....
Re: the bolded, that's a huge mistake in your thought that costs tens of millions. It's not the bottom 26 players, it's the free agents from now until after the 2023 season. Players like Osborn, Cleveland, Wonnum. Then there are others who are not the bottom rung guys, AND you'll have to find talented replacements for the players you expect to be cut.
So your (now) $66 million will easily be reduced by tens of millions just to tread water.
You can pay them more after 2024, but Darrisaw's agent may be cautioning them about doing that.
And yeah, "no idea" at QB is understandable... but quite pivotal.
Basically your $106 million just vanished. "Impact" free agents? Not so much.
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