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marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (4/30/2009 10:58:46 AM)
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Tim
I correctly predicted the SCORE of the Vikings' playoff loss to Atlanta in '98, even predicting Anderson missing the FG in regulation (except I had the VIKINGS winning in OT).
Here is why I predicted the Peterson injury (it's similar logic that made the Anderson miss in the clutch after a perfect regular season somewhat predictable):
Besides the fact that he was a little injury prone in college, Peterson is concerned about injury and has put on weight to absorb more pounding. It is logical that he will continue to take a pounding because he gets a lot of carries, his style of play. IF he is just a LITTLE bit slower, that could lead to more unexpected hits, more hits, and increases the possibility of injury. That's the logic part.
I also have a little bit of a far out theory, (more right brain, not the logical left brain) that some players "allow" themselves to be hurt for various reasons. I'm not sure 'why?', just like I'm not sure 'why' refs might 'sway' a game, but I think the possibility exists for both.
My theory is that either the player either "allows" themselves to get hurt because they have: 1) given up on their teams' season, 2) want to be recognized, want to be missed, 3) would rather be taking it easy 4) want others to realize their importance to the team 5) maybe they feel like they have to do too much, that others on the team aren't trying as hard as they could.
Could it be that Tom Brady didn't feel he got enough credit for 16-0 in 2007, but people were just remembering the SB loss ? Could it be that EJ thought the season was done with the poor QB play, and that the team was going nowhere ? Could it be that Pat Williams wanted #2 and #4 ? Maybe Brett Favre wanted those same things, or an excuse for poor play down the road ? Maybe Aaron Rodgers wanted some of those things when he had his midseason injury, and wanted to show his toughness playing through injury ? Did you notice all the injuries to Packers once it appeared their season was done last year ? Javon Walker hurt in his 1st game back after a contract holdout with the Packers ?
I could go on and on, and list players from every team the last few years (I list Packers only because I'm sort of forced to follow them closer, I did NOT watch them that closely when I lived in Minnesota). I think Peterson MIGHT sense #2 and #4 next year, should the offense be clicking but people are forgetting that AD is still the biggest reason behind the success, some thinking that it might be just as good with Taylor. Well, let's see if that is true.
HOW does it happen ? The players' subconscious mind usually (NOT always!) has split seconds to decide how to react to being hit, whether to allow it to happen or not. I think Brett Favre REALLY craved the attention and adoration for being an iron man, and when he sensed a hit coming, would usually allow the hit to take place, not offering resistence, and usually came out unscathed like many drunk drivers in auto accidents, he would just let it flow, let his body sort of relax. Favre is probably the best EVER at that.
WHY did I persue this theory ? I'm trying to get good at correctly predicting players' injuries to pick fantasy players that will be injury free for that season. My team was pretty healthy last year, I might have won the championship had I not dropped Big Ben and picked up Tyler Thigpen, but then ultimately starting Favre against a soft defense, coming up short.
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