RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (Full Version)

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David Jerde -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/24/2010 2:45:57 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Jerde

and yet, there he sits with a HC job in the NFL whilst others deride from outside. i'm all for patience to see where this team can go.


... Being in a position does not automatically prove competence


as the old saying goes, people tend to rise to their level of incompetence. you have arrived, i would say...



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/24/2010 3:18:36 PM)

Is that a personal attack?

Why don't you just stick to debating the point?

Clearly, Matt Millen, Rich Kotite, and countless others demonstrate that just because someone is in a position doesn't mean they know what they are doing.

As for me, you don't know me. You don't know what I do for a living. You couldn't be further from the truth.



David Jerde -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/24/2010 3:45:28 PM)

I didn't write that as a personal attack; rereading, it was poorly conceived and executed. I regret what I wrote and apologize for the character attack.



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/24/2010 4:30:42 PM)

John , I would think he was talkling about BRAD Childress as "having arrived" at his level of imcompetence...
not you..

But I can see how, given they way it was worded, that you might be offended.

relax... I am the target now, not you...(except for certian posters who vehemently DID not want you back)

Pm me some time and we can laugh at them.

[&:]



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/24/2010 4:43:40 PM)

David

Please accept my apologies!

JC



thebigo -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/24/2010 8:55:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pete C

quote:

ORIGINAL: RBIrving

I know it's popular to deride the Vikings for using a "zone blocking" scheme, but it's my understanding that it isn't a choice made for the KA offense, but to accommodate for AD's running style.  The same is true about how far back he lines up in the formation.

******************************************************
Childress employed the zone blocking schemes prior to AD's arrival.


Yep...One of the first things he installed.  then he proceeded to add Anthony Herrera and Phil Loadholt to the scheme.  When replacing guys on the line he should have opted toward mor mobile smaller guys better suited to the system. 


And what seemed like a great free agent signing of Steve Hutchinson has been significantly marginalized.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/28/2010 10:48:13 PM)

Going into the Lions game, I was fearing it was really a game the Vikes could lose.

I meant to post on here my thoughts before the game, on the large spread, I think it was 11 1/2, before the game. I was liking that, as the bettors would either be split, or there might be a large amount of bettors betting on the Lions (a large number of bettors betting on the Vikes to cover 11 1/2, seemed unlikely). IF there had been a large amount of bettors going with the Lions, then the Vikes might BENEFIT from a 'sway'.

It would make sense that people would bet the Lions as they were very close in their first 2 games, and it didn't seem like the Vikes would have the offense to blow another team out. It turns out there were plenty of holding calls on the Lions' OL, and a few PI calls that helped the Vikes extend drives on 3rd down. Although this game was a possible 'sway' in favor of the Vikes covering the spread, it seems unlikely as there were also plenty of calls that went against the Vikings.

It seems advantageous that the Vikes got the Lions before the bye, as teams that win before their bye are a little more likely to win the game AFTER the bye. I think it is also an advantage to a have difficult team right after a bye (as getting a weak opponents seems like kind of a waste to prepare 2 weeks on them), but it is MUCH better if that game is AT HOME.



thebigo -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/29/2010 7:29:10 AM)

quote:

as teams that win before their bye are a little more likely to win the game AFTER the bye


I would think that it is statistically a little more likely that a team would win the game after ANY win.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/5/2010 11:36:44 PM)

That is true, but I remember reading something awhile back, that it is stronger statistically when a bye is involved. Teams sit on the win or loss longer, and intensity of either is felt more. I remember also reading, a little bit contradictory, but yet NOT, that a rested team after a bye doesn't win a great deal more than expected, but when they win, it tends to be by wider margins then the average of the teams' other wins throughout the season.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/5/2010 11:36:45 PM)

I did NOT anticipate a Moss trade to Minnesota when I did my predictions before the season.

IF it happens, I hope you'll allow me to amend my SB prediction to Ravens over VIKINGS, instead of Ravens over Saints, although I'm still not sure if that increase in talent is still enough to overcome Chili's coaching enough for the Vikes to beat the Saints in the playoffs.

You can have all the talent in the world, but if the coach leaves the team feeling unprepared or uneasy as the game approaches, you're probably going to have mistakes at critical times during the game.

I still don't believe in Chili, and feel that the Vikes could go farther on less talent next year, with a better HC, and Frazier would be my FIRST choice to replace Chili.



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 7:12:56 AM)

If the Vikings make the SB, they are NOT losing



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 8:15:36 AM)

- The Vikings showed in '98, it doesn't matter how many Pro Bowlers you have on the team, you can't win the SB with a weak HC.

The Vikings are better at RB on offense this year compared to '98, but '98 had a better OC, better OL, better WR corps, better QB. I guess Percy in the slot is better than Reed. The Vikes are better on defense this year compared to '98, but they're still not getting the turnovers.

Here is what I would LIKE to see Monday night (since I think it's likely Revis wins the Revis/Moss matchup round 2 - due to Favre not being able to hit Moss quickly, and not yet having the chemistry with Randy, and the game is in NY):

1) Use Moss as a decoy and pound them with AP. Let AP win the game like he almost did against Pittsburgh last year, it's a similar tough matchup. Percy back in the slot, can also make some huge plays.

Here is what I think WILL happen on Monday night:

The Vikes will target Moss plenty and Revis will get a pick that is the difference in the game, AP will have a marginal night, Vikes lose.

I would like for Monday night to be a coming out party for RYAN COOK, couple of picks. I think if you rearrange the letters in CHRIS COOK, you get NFC ROOKIE OF THE YEAR ! [:D]



Lynn G. -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 8:19:59 AM)

Sorry to do this Marty. Do you mean CHRIS Cook?



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 8:35:14 AM)

Revis is not at 100% and will not be able to shut down Moss!



Ian Joseph -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 9:38:11 AM)

Fearless prediction, part seven.

The Vikings are still going to the Super Bowl. It will just be more enjoyable for all of us now.



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 9:54:34 AM)

THIS TIME THEY ARE GOING TO WIN!



Trekgeekscott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 10:11:50 AM)

In a weak NFC, this move is HUGE.  I am not shining the Lombardi trophy yet though...there is a lot of season left to play and we have to get through a tough part of our schedule.  Jets, Cowpukes, Packers at Lambblow, At NE...

No cakewalk...even though we do have Moss now...there isn't an easy game the rest of the year except for Buffalo and MAYBE Arizona.  The rest will be a test...and I think we will pass most of them.



jim -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 10:31:37 AM)

Prediction vs Jets

1) We line up 4 wide, pitch right to AD who then throws a bomb to Moss for a TD. After the play, Darrelle Revis is carted off the field only to find out he has shredded his hammy
trying to change direction and catch up to Randy after the run fake by AD.

2) Mark Sanchez becomes Jay Cutler II as the defense sets a new single game sack record on back to back weeks.

3) Brett Favre reaches 500 career TD passes and 50,000 total pass yards-- on the same play to Randy Moss

4) AD overtakes the NFL rushing leader while leaving broken Jets strewn across the turf as a result of improbable cuts and bone jarring stiff arms



Corleone -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/6/2010 12:13:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jim

Prediction vs Jets

1) We line up 4 wide, pitch right to AD who then throws a bomb to Moss for a TD. After the play, Darrelle Revis is carted off the field only to find out he has shredded his hammy
trying to change direction and catch up to Randy after the run fake by AD.

2) Mark Sanchez becomes Jay Cutler II as the defense sets a new single game sack record on back to back weeks.

3) Brett Favre reaches 500 career TD passes and 50,000 total pass yards-- on the same play to Randy Moss

4) AD overtakes the NFL rushing leader while leaving broken Jets strewn across the turf as a result of improbable cuts and bone jarring stiff arms


[&:]  Beautiful.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/7/2010 12:03:50 AM)

No problem Lynn, I think my head was spinning over getting Moss, it's just unbelievable. An error like that is embarrassing, but I think what I was getting it as an important point.

I think it is a mistake to think the Vikes will dominate many teams this year. To dominate, you probably need defensive TDs, and the Vikes are NOT getting many picks since Sharper left -- MAYBE Chris Cook cures that, and starts a bid for ROY on Monday night ? Dominant teams usually have really good returners that can take it to the house, and the Vikes don't have that at punt returns after letting Reynaud go.

The Vikes have a VERY tough schedule coming up. The next four games are brutal, and I'll be happy if they'll win two of them, with 3 of them being on the road. If pressed to make a prediction, I think the Vikes will beat the 2 teams with lesser coaches, the Cowboys and the Packers, but lose to the Jets and the Patriots. I realize this contradicts my before season prediction that the Vikes winning at Lambau would be dependent the game the week before with the Cowboys, saying they would do the opposite the following week.

Getting Moss changes this a tad. Maybe the Vikes win ALL FOUR games ? Favre will be motivated to beat his ex team the Jets, Moss usually really lights up the Cowboys, they BOTH hate the Pack, and Moss will want revenge against NE.

The Jets game is interesting because I think we'll see SO MUCH blitzing, I just wonder if the Vikes will have enough screens and dumpoffs to Peterson ready. I don't think Favre will have much time to burn them deep, but it could get interesting if they can keep that fine Jets' defense off balance, mixing it up, Percy in there, and the offense playing energized.

NE will be a real challenge. NE dominated the Vikes last time, it will be interesting to see if Frazier can do better than Tomlin in stopping the Patriot offense. Winning at Foxboro could end up being a defining moment in the season.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/13/2010 9:55:07 PM)

IF the idea of a 'sway' upsets you, do NOT read this:

Almost all the experts were picking the Vikes against the Jets, maybe the bettors were also ? Maybe several of the penalties were to push a little more towards the likelihood of a Jets' victory ? Maybe the Vikes weren't supposed to convert all those 3rd and longs ? I think it's also possible that the Titans may have benefitted from a little push, as I suspect the betting was more on Dallas at home.

Maybe the Vikes benefitted from a little push against the Lions because the spread was so big ? The holding penalties WERE killing the Lions offense at certain parts of the game. I don't think the NFL does it to every game, probably just one game a week. They just don't want things becoming too predictable, they prefer parity, and it seems to keep the bettors off balance. If I can correctly guess which way the officials are likely to go, there COULD be something up. But if they only mess with games on occasion, then you don't know WHICH game they might alter a little, it's becomes hard to detect, that's what they want; randomness.

Keeping this in mind, I was VERY disturbed on Tuesday to see the Vikes were just a 1 1/2 point favorite. I was expecting an 8-10 spread because the Vikes beat them so badly last year, the Vikes now have Moss, the fanbase should really be pumped up. I was hoping for an 11 or 12 point spread where it would tempt enough bettors on Dallas to where the betting might lean towards Dallas, the bettors thinking it's easy money.

Anything 7 or less points, had me worry the refs might need to get involved to keep the game close, or help along the likelihood that Dallas covers the spread. A 1 1/2 point spread could mean LOTS of biased involvement (or UNinvolvemnet) of the officials in favor of Dallas. That COULD get ugly if the Vikes outplay them by a wide margin. The good part is, I don't think any officials involved in a pushing the game a certain way want to get caught or noticed, so (like in '98) if it looks like it's going to take too much effort to the point where people might notice they're messing with the game, the refs might back off and just let things play out.

The Favre injury changes that, and maybe that played a role in the spread, although I doubt that. I just hope the spread stays at 1 1/2 and that there are plenty of bettors betting on Dallas. I think if the officials don't mess with the game, the Vikes have a VERY strong chance of winning the game, even with TJACK at the helm. The Vikes match up well with Dallas, and the Dome should really be rockin'



Rob Viking -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/14/2010 12:46:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

IF the idea of a 'sway' upsets you, do NOT read this:

Almost all the experts were picking the Vikes against the Jets, maybe the bettors were also ? Maybe several of the penalties were to push a little more towards the likelihood of a Jets' victory ? Maybe the Vikes weren't supposed to convert all those 3rd and longs ? I think it's also possible that the Titans may have benefitted from a little push, as I suspect the betting was more on Dallas at home.

Maybe the Vikes benefitted from a little push against the Lions because the spread was so big ? The holding penalties WERE killing the Lions offense at certain parts of the game. I don't think the NFL does it to every game, probably just one game a week. They just don't want things becoming too predictable, they prefer parity, and it seems to keep the bettors off balance. If I can correctly guess which way the officials are likely to go, there COULD be something up. But if they only mess with games on occasion, then you don't know WHICH game they might alter a little, it's becomes hard to detect, that's what they want; randomness.

Keeping this in mind, I was VERY disturbed on Tuesday to see the Vikes were just a 1 1/2 point favorite. I was expecting an 8-10 spread because the Vikes beat them so badly last year, the Vikes now have Moss, the fanbase should really be pumped up. I was hoping for an 11 or 12 point spread where it would tempt enough bettors on Dallas to where the betting might lean towards Dallas, the bettors thinking it's easy money.

Anything 7 or less points, had me worry the refs might need to get involved to keep the game close, or help along the likelihood that Dallas covers the spread. A 1 1/2 point spread could mean LOTS of biased involvement (or UNinvolvemnet) of the officials in favor of Dallas. That COULD get ugly if the Vikes outplay them by a wide margin. The good part is, I don't think any officials involved in a pushing the game a certain way want to get caught or noticed, so (like in '98) if it looks like it's going to take too much effort to the point where people might notice they're messing with the game, the refs might back off and just let things play out.

The Favre injury changes that, and maybe that played a role in the spread, although I doubt that. I just hope the spread stays at 1 1/2 and that there are plenty of bettors betting on Dallas. I think if the officials don't mess with the game, the Vikes have a VERY strong chance of winning the game, even with TJACK at the helm. The Vikes match up well with Dallas, and the Dome should really be rockin'


There's no way this spread was going to be more than 3. 8+ points seriously, even if this were Vikes -6 there would be plenty of action on Dallas at 8-10 pts it would be >85% for the Cowboys.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/14/2010 7:55:55 AM)

Before learning more about the Favre injury, I thought any spread 6 points or less would be easy money betting on the Vikings, another lopsided win for the Vikes seems likely.

Dallas has done nothing to improve themselves, and the Vikes beat them by 30 points in Minnesota last year. The Vikes are BETTER with Moss, with the crowd rockin' the place, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game, unless either Chili has the team unprepared or the officials get involved in Dallas' favor -- BOTH of which I CAN see.

But I STILL see, even with a poorly prepared, Childress, jittery team that coughs up the ball, a Vikings' team that overcomes that AND strongly biased officiating and wins the game by 3 or more. 1 1/2 seems like the easiest money one could EVER make, but the biased officiating and poorly prepared team WILL make you sweat it for awhile.



Steve Lentz -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/14/2010 9:48:46 PM)

I had the Jets beating the Vikes by a TD as they are the better team and were home on a Monday Night game.
This week I see the Vikes winning by 10. Moss will have a couple TD's.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (10/16/2010 2:09:01 AM)

This is a game where under just about ANY scenario I see the Vikes winning, so they will probably LOSE. IF the officials get involved, I see nothing but them being biased with calls and non-calls in favor of Dallas in the 4th quarter.

Dallas 48
Minnesota 38

I'm starting to think along JCs lines in that it is time to go with TJACK. Favre is a big distraction to the team, and it is likely this situation has them all thinking he is a big phony. He has lost the team, and the team has lost focus because of it.

I think TJACK would REALLY surprise if given a chance to start, it would be a fresh start for the team. While I don't think TJACK is likely to pull out a game in the clutch, I think he can lead the team to early leads and lopsided WINS. His athleticism can trump Chili's playcalling, with runs on 3rd down. I think, unlike Favre, TJACK WOULD connect with Berrian on deep routes because they have chemistry.

Besides connecting with Berrian, TJACK would also find the talents of Moss and Harvin to be quite something. And, IF TJACK played it close to the vest and went with Chili's playcalling, we might just see AD breaking more long TDs, as long as some deep pass connections are made on occasion.

Favre showed that it wouldn't take exceptional QBing to make this offense explode, just average QBing could do the trick. And TJACK is just that, average, and unlike Favre, TJACK is unlikely to turn the ball over at a high rate. A system QB that doesn't commit a lot of turnovers, and can make great plays once in a while, is EXACTLY what the team needs right now, and TJACK is exactly that. The criticisms of TJACK could well be invalid because they are based on too small of sample, at least I'm HOPING that is the case. [:)]

The answer at QB is obvious and staring us in the face right now. [:-]



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