kwheats
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Zimmer can't beat playoff teams in the regular season when they score 20 or more points without Cousins
By Big Stupid Face on Dec 30, 2019, 10:20pm CST 13
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Zimmer currently sits at 11-25 record against playoff teams in the regular season. Zimmer was at 9-15, and those numbers plummeted with the arrival of Kirk Cousins. Cousins is 2-10 against future playoff teams in the regular season. Is this all on Cousins or a continuation of a long standing trend in the Zimmer era?
Scroll to the bottom of this article if you want to see all 36 games with scores. Below is a quick summary of the quarterbacks and their records against playoff teams in the regular season under Zimmer.
Cassel 0-1.
Ponder 0-1
Keenum 2-2
Bradford 4-4
Teddy 3-7
Cousins 2-10
Why is Cousins not winning?
An interesting pattern emerges when filtering out the wins: Cousins is the only QB in the Zimmer era to beat a playoff bound team when they score 20 or more points (Table 2 below).
Keenum’s opponents only scored 7 and 9 points in his 2 wins.
Bridgewater’s wins all came against opponents that scored 14 points or less.
Bradford’s opponents scored 13, 14, and 19 points.
The average opponents score before Cousins arrived in these games is 12.
All of Cousins games have come against opponents that have score 20 or more points. Keenum, Bridgewater, and Bradford never beat a playoff bound team when they scored more than 20 points. Cousins has done it twice.
Table 2: All Vikings victories against playoff bound teams in regular season.
Year
Team
Vikings points
Opp. points
QB
2017
Rams
24
7
Keenum
2017
Falcons
14
9
Keenum
2015
Chiefs
16
10
Teddy
2016
Giants
24
10
Bradford
2014
Panthers
31
13
Teddy
2015
Packers
20
13
Teddy
2016
Texans
31
13
Bradford
2016
Packers
17
14
Bradford
2017
Saints
29
19
Bradford
2019
Eagles
38
20
Cousins
2018
Eagles
23
21
Cousins
Number of games playoff bound opponents were held to under 20 points went from 55% to zero once Cousins arrived.
See Table 3 below and let that sink in. Quarterbacks not named Cousins had the opponents scoring less than 20 points over half the time (55%). Those same quarterbacks won 9 of 13 games.
None of the games since Cousins arrived are on this list. Why can't the defense hold playoff bound teams to under 20 points since Cousins arrived? Going from over half to zero is a HUGE change!
It's worth noting that Cook had a fumble-6 in Chicago (2018) and Cousins had a fumble-6 in Seattle (2018) that would have put the scores under 20 in those games. So this is not all on the defense. But this can only account for 2 of the 12 games Cousins played, and Cousins should have had 6-7 games if teams were held to pre-Cousins levels of scoring.
Table 3: Teams held to under 20 points. None since Cousins arrived
Year
Team
Vikings points
Opp. points
W/L
QB
2014
Panthers
31
13
W
Teddy
2014
Lions
14
16
L
Teddy
2014
Lions
3
17
L
Teddy
2015
Chiefs
16
10
W
Teddy
2015
Packers
20
13
W
Teddy
2016
Giants
24
10
W
Bradford
2016
Texans
31
13
W
Bradford
2016
Packers
17
14
W
Bradford
2016
Lions
13
16
L
Bradford
2016
Cowboys
15
17
L
Bradford
2017
Rams
24
7
W
Keenum
2017
Falcons
14
9
W
Keenum
2017
Saints
29
19
W
Bradford
What happened to the Defense since Cousins arrived?
Filtering out wins and losses in the years prior to Cousins an interesting trend appears: The Vikings defense has allowed more 3rd down conversions and this directly correlates to their record against playoff bound teams.
From 2015-2018, the defense held their opponents average 3rd down conversion rate during wins to under 25%. The losses of those years vary, but as the average rate creeps up the record drops. It is interesting that in 2016 (Bradford's year) and 2017 ( 1 game Bradford, rest Keenum) even the losses had an average opponent's 3rd down conversion rate under 30%. It is also interesting that in 2014 and 2018 as the average crept up to about 40% the win record dropped to 1-5 and 1-6.
Table 4: Opponents 3rd down conversion rate
Year
W
L
average
Record
2014
43.8
39.5
40.0
1-5
2015
19
44
35.6
2-4
2016
17.5
37.5
28.6
3-4
2017
24.4
28
25.8
3-2
2018
22
41.8
41.8
1-6
2019
33
36
35.4
1-4
Vikings won 3 of 21 games when their opponent’s 3rd down conversion rate is over 30%.
For some reason 30% 3rd down conversation rate is the kiss of death for the Vikings.
Pre-Cousins the Vikings won 2 of 12 (16%) of games where their opponent’s 3rd down conversion rate is above 30%.
9 of Cousins 12 games are in this range where all other quarterback's in the Zimmer era won 16% of the time.
It is interesting to note that the 3 games above 30% that they have won were some of the highest scoring games they had against playoff bound opponents.
Did the Vikings score so much that it overcame the 30% kiss of death?
The 2014 Carolina game had 2 blocked punts for TDs. I have not investigated the other games further.
Table 5: Games over 30% 3rd down conversion rate and W/L record.
Year
Team
Vikings points
Opp. points
W/L
QB
Opp. 3rd Conversion %
2019
Chiefs
23
26
L
Cousins
30
2019
Packers
16
21
L
Cousins
33
2017
Panthers
24
31
L
Keenum
33
2019
Packers
10
23
L
Cousins
35
2014
Packers
10
42
L
Ponder
36
2015
Packers
13
30
L
Teddy
38
2016
Lions
13
16
L
Bradford
43
2016
Packers
25
38
L
Bradford
46
2019
Seattle
30
37
L
Cousins
46
2015
Cardinals
20
23
L
Teddy
46
2016
Lions
16
22
L
Bradford
50
2018
Patriots
10
24
L
Cousins
50
2018
Saints
20
30
L
Cousins
50
Summary
The above evidence shows that Cousins is currently not getting the support quarterbacks have typically gotten from Zimmer era defenses. Everyone has seen Cousins play. It is undeniable that he is responsible for some of the losses, but clearly there are some really obvious trends that are difficult to ignore.
Questions I would love answered:
1. Is the correlation of opponent's 3rd down conversion rate a cause or a symptom of a different issue?
2. Why are playoff bound teams scoring above 20 points in all 12 games Cousins has played, when it used to be less than half?
3. Is Cousins somehow pushing the defense into zones where the Vikings historically fail?
4. Is this a product of Zimmer's style of play without an elite defense?
Let me know what you think!
Table 6: All Zimmer era games against playoff bound teams.
Year
Team
Vikes points
Other points
W/L
QB
2014
Panthers
31
13
W
Teddy
2014
Patriots
7
30
L
Cassel
2014
Packers
10
42
L
Ponder
2014
Lions
3
17
L
Teddy
2014
Packers
21
24
L
Teddy
2014
Lions
14
16
L
Teddy
2015
Chiefs
16
10
W
Teddy
2015
Packers
20
13
W
Teddy
2015
Broncos
20
23
L
Teddy
2015
Seahawk
7
38
L
Teddy
2015
Packers
13
30
L
Teddy
2015
Cardinals
20
23
L
Teddy
2016
Packers
17
14
W
Bradford
2016
Giants
24
10
W
Bradford
2016
Texans
31
13
W
Bradford
2016
Lions
16
22
L
Bradford
2016
Lions
13
16
L
Bradford
2016
Cowboys
15
17
L
Bradford
2016
Packers
25
38
L
Bradford
2017
Saints
29
19
W
Bradford
2017
Rams
24
7
W
Keenum
2017
Falcons
14
9
W
Keenum
2017
Panthers
24
31
L
Keenum
2017
Steelers
9
26
L
Keenum
2018
Eagles
23
21
W
Cousins
2018
Seattle
7
21
L
Cousins
2018
Patriots
10
24
L
Cousins
2018
Saints
20
30
L
Cousins
2018
Rams
31
38
L
Cousins
2018
Bears
20
25
L
Cousins
2018
Bears
10
24
L
Cousins
2019
Eagles
38
20
W
Cousins
2019
Seattle
30
37
L
Cousins
2019
Chiefs
23
26
L
Cousins
2019
Packers
10
23
L
Cousins
2019
Packers
16
21
L
Cousins
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