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RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 12:30:23 PM

unome

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

260 cases out of 365,979 people attending? Take those numbers and you get 711 cases per million people

How many new COVID cases in the US were confirmed in that same 10 day period? Roughly 377,000. Take that out of 331 million and we get 1,140 cases per million people.

So, using your numbers, the people who attended the Rally were safer than the average American.

Post #: 676

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 12:51:35 PM

TJSweens

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Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline

The thing to remember is those are early numbers and likely to grow. You also have to consider that this bunch is not exactly cooperative when it comes to contact tracing, so the numbers are likely very under reported.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."

Post #: 677

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:03:53 PM

GopherFan34

Posts: 537
Joined: 4/25/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

Being called a snowflake puts a person in a tricky situation. If they get really offended that they were called a snowflake, then they start looking just like, well, a snowflake.

It is like the one personal insult that really cannot be refuted by anything but ignoring the personal insult.

So if someone calls you a snowflake, rub some dirt on it, and get back on the field.

Another way to handle it is to embrace it. When anyone asks me what my political stance is I always answer 'snowflake, libtard, liberal'. It takes the power away and removes those labels from the argument. Then they get to spend time wondering why I'd identify myself like that and also as a business owner, gun owner, NFL season ticket owner, GWB voter (twice!), and still proud to be an American. Short answer - it's because I have the ability to think and reason.

If you have the ability to think and reason, you surly can't be a liberal!

Post #: 678

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:05:16 PM

bohumm

Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

Good thing the Protestors/Rioters are immune.

I am against rioting and looting, though I think that positive things can come about along with the clear negatives of destruction of property and disruption of public safety. I am much closer to Big O on this than I am to Brad H. However, I don't think it's productive to equate a civil unrest reaction to a horrific instance of murder by police to an annual event people choose to go to and further choose to ignore public health guidelines. The protests were outdoors and most seemed to wear masks, while much of the Sturgis Rally culminates in bars and restaurants with few/no masks and no social distancing. It would suck for the town and its businesses to not have the income that accompanies the rally, but it would suck more to get sick or die because your neighbor chose to expose you to COVID so he or she could go to Sturgis, unmasked and without distancing. We'll see where the numbers end up, even though we'll never know for certain. All disease/death associated with this or any event that defies public health guidance are totally unnecessary and expose others, including healthcare workers, needlessly. There is also an economic impact to the healthcare required as well as the drag on the economy as we continue to "flatten" the curve at a high level as opposed to quashing it.

Post #: 679

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:08:11 PM 3 votes

Brad H

Posts: 22956
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

260 cases out of 365,979 people attending? Take those numbers and you get 711 cases per million people

How many new COVID cases in the US were confirmed in that same 10 day period? Roughly 377,000. Take that out of 331 million and we get 1,140 cases per million people.

So, using your numbers, the people who attended the Rally were safer than the average American.

Right, and how many people will those people spread it to?

What you guys fail to take into consideration, is that at one point we had one person in the country with the virus. Some 6.2-million people later, one would think you would have figured out the mathematics of it all.

Some learn quicker than others.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 9/1/2020 1:16:33 PM >

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 680

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:10:41 PM

unome

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

The thing to remember is those are early numbers and likely to grow. You also have to consider that this bunch is not exactly cooperative when it comes to contact tracing, so the numbers are likely very under reported.

We are never going to really know.

Can we say for certain that the 260 cases all got it at Sturgis? No. They could have gotten it at a stop on the way there or the way home. Or they could have gotten it from their friend they went to Sturgis with who would have given it to them if they had stayed home.

Realistically, the accurate number is highly likely more than 260 confirmed cases truly came from Sturgis. My point is that we would have to get to roughly 417 cases to reach the break-even point with the average American during that period.

So Brad's *Biker Rally of Death* does not seem to match the data of what actually appears to have happened.

Post #: 681

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:11:33 PM 2 votes

GopherFan34

Posts: 537
Joined: 4/25/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Snowflake

Snowflake
A very sensitive person. Someone who is easily hurt or offended by the statements or actions of others.

This has nothing to do with politics. Snowflakes can be liberal or conservative. Whether it is a compliment or an insult is a matter of opinion and depends on the context.

Provided your description is accurate.

When someone calls on the Russian government to help win an election and then is put in office despite getting 3-million less votes, he should not whine about the potential for a rigged election. If there ever was a snowflake, it's the guy in the White House. His sensitivity to issues is unparalleled in American political history.

Have we ever had such a baby in office? The media is out to get him. The Democrats are out to get him. His followers incessantly whine. If you listen to him or his followers, you'd think they got ripped off at some point.

I guess you're bitter about the electoral college. Apparently you missed the Mueller report to. Why don't you see if you can give us the numbers on Covid case's from the rioters.

Post #: 682

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:13:14 PM

Brad H

Posts: 22956
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

Good thing the Protestors/Rioters are immune.

First off, I agree. The riots and protests were a potential super spreader. I was concerned about that from the outset.

However, upon further review, they came with a completely different purpose. The riots and protests came with a purpose of reversing 200+ years of oppression. The Sturgis Rally served the purpose of getting drunk and partying.

We can argue until we are blue in the face as to whether or not the riots and protests will have any effect. But lets not begin to pretend that a Sturgis Rally had any potential positive purpose whatsoever, outside of getting drunk and saying hello to old friends. It was reckless, at-best.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 9/1/2020 1:30:21 PM >

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Post #: 683

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:15:38 PM 1 votes

TJSweens

Posts: 44974
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

Good thing the Protestors/Rioters are immune.

I am against rioting and looting, though I think that positive things can come about along with the clear negatives of destruction of property and disruption of public safety. I am much closer to Big O on this than I am to Brad H. However, I don't think it's productive to equate a civil unrest reaction to a horrific instance of murder by police to an annual event people choose to go to and further choose to ignore public health guidelines. The protests were outdoors and most seemed to wear masks, while much of the Sturgis Rally culminates in bars and restaurants with few/no masks and no social distancing. It would suck for the town and its businesses to not have the income that accompanies the rally, but it would suck more to get sick or die because your neighbor chose to expose you to COVID so he or she could go to Sturgis, unmasked and without distancing. We'll see where the numbers end up, even though we'll never know for certain. All disease/death associated with this or any event that defies public health guidance are totally unnecessary and expose others, including healthcare workers, needlessly. There is also an economic impact to the healthcare required as well as the drag on the economy as we continue to "flatten" the curve at a high level as opposed to quashing it.

It's basically their go to stupid argument. All reckless, idiotic and stupid behavior is absolved because people are protesting.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."

Post #: 684

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:16:12 PM 3 votes

bohumm

Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

260 cases out of 365,979 people attending? Take those numbers and you get 711 cases per million people

How many new COVID cases in the US were confirmed in that same 10 day period? Roughly 377,000. Take that out of 331 million and we get 1,140 cases per million people.

So, using your numbers, the people who attended the Rally were safer than the average American.

Which are we supposed to feel good about: the clearly underreported cases traced to this (or any) event, or the fact that 37,700 people (also clearly an undercount) are being diagnosed every day with a potentially lethal virus? We have totally failed on counting and tracing infections, which are pillars of containing outbreak. And the Trump administration and their adherents want to do even less of each.....

Post #: 685

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:17:02 PM

unome

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

260 cases out of 365,979 people attending? Take those numbers and you get 711 cases per million people

How many new COVID cases in the US were confirmed in that same 10 day period? Roughly 377,000. Take that out of 331 million and we get 1,140 cases per million people.

So, using your numbers, the people who attended the Rally were safer than the average American.

Right, and how many people will those people spread it to?

What you guys fail to take into consideration, is that at one point we had one person in the country with the virus.

Yes, but the same would be true of EVERY case in the US, correct?

So if, using your numbers, people experienced less infections than the average American if they attended Sturgis, the overall infection rates would have had to go down and not up.

Post #: 686

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:17:36 PM

Brad H

Posts: 22956
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

The thing to remember is those are early numbers and likely to grow. You also have to consider that this bunch is not exactly cooperative when it comes to contact tracing, so the numbers are likely very under reported.

We are never going to really know.

Can we say for certain that the 260 cases all got it at Sturgis? No. They could have gotten it at a stop on the way there or the way home. Or they could have gotten it from their friend they went to Sturgis with who would have given it to them if they had stayed home.

Realistically, the accurate number is highly likely more than 260 confirmed cases truly came from Sturgis. My point is that we would have to get to roughly 417 cases to reach the break-even point with the average American during that period.

So Brad's *Biker Rally of Death* does not seem to match the data of what actually appears to have happened.

Provided that time stops today, you would have a point.

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 687

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:32:21 PM

unome

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Over 260 new cases in about 10 states traced back to the Sturgis Rally. Six days ago it was about 100 people. Over 100 in South Dakota alone.

Cases rising in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Hope they had fun on their bikes. For some, it will be the last ride they ever have.

260 cases out of 365,979 people attending? Take those numbers and you get 711 cases per million people

How many new COVID cases in the US were confirmed in that same 10 day period? Roughly 377,000. Take that out of 331 million and we get 1,140 cases per million people.

So, using your numbers, the people who attended the Rally were safer than the average American.

Which are we supposed to feel good about: the clearly underreported cases traced to this (or any) event, or the fact that 37,700 people (also clearly an undercount) are being diagnosed every day with a potentially lethal virus? We have totally failed on counting and tracing infections, which are pillars of containing outbreak. And the Trump administration and their adherents want to do even less of each.....

Apparently, you chose to read into my post in a number of ways that had nothing to do with any actual words I chose to use. For example, I do not remember saying we should "feel good" about anything at all. And I never went into a political area you chose to that had nothing at all to do with the Rally.

I just pointed out that Brad has no idea how to read numbers as it relates to COVID. The fact that this is plainly true is perhaps why you ignored the entire point of my post.

In this little, and fairly minor, exchange, I think we can see what is wrong with how we view the political realm. Any facts, facts mind you, that do not fit *the narrative* are ignored or made light of. We certainly see this from all sides.

It is just sad that you cannot really be on the 'side' of facts anymore. You have to be 'MAGAt' or a 'LIBtard'. Sad.

< Message edited by unome -- 9/1/2020 1:38:41 PM >

Post #: 688

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:37:30 PM

unome

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Provided that time stops today, you would have a point.

You pretty much have to catch COVID in the first 2 weeks after the Rally, don't you?

There could be more numbers that are added, to be sure, but if you got COVID at the Rally, you will have to have a positive test pretty soon.

Post #: 689

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:39:58 PM

TJSweens

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Joined: 7/16/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Provided that time stops today, you would have a point.

You pretty much have to catch COVID in the first 2 weeks after the Rally, don't you?

There could be more numbers that are added, to be sure, but if you got COVID at the Rally, you will have to have a positive test pretty soon.

You start becoming symptomatic in that time. Then it is a matter of when or if you get tested. None of that takes into consideration, how many are infected and asymptomatic, spreading the disease without knowing they have it.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."

Post #: 690

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:40:04 PM

Brad H

Posts: 22956
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: offline

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it's riveting conversation in Sturgis talking about the new naked lady tattoo you got in the last 12 months year.

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 691

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:47:56 PM

unome

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Joined: 5/7/2013
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Of course, if I had attended the Rally. (I did not, but I have.) I could have a positive test for COVID today and have no real idea where I go it. Did I get it at Sturgis or at the local Walmart? Or maybe at that Poker Run I went on last weekend. Or maybe that small gathering at my friend's back yard.

I am really glad the COVID fallout seems to be pretty minor at the Rally. The South Dakota rising numbers are largely fueled by returning students in college towns partying like it is 1999, and not 2020.

The city of Sturgis gets a mind-numbing 95% of its annual revenue from the bike rally so cancelling it would have been a disaster. And most businesses in town completely count on it to make their year.

Post #: 692

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:50:58 PM

unome

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Joined: 5/7/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

You start becoming symptomatic in that time. Then it is a matter of when or if you get tested. None of that takes into consideration, how many are infected and asymptomatic, spreading the disease without knowing they have it.

Right, but my whole point is that these same things would be happening with people had they stayed at home. Brad assumed that 260 new cases came from the Rally, but 417 cases would have came from those people if they had picked up the disease at the same rate of the average American.

Post #: 693

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:51:12 PM

Phil Riewer

Posts: 27231
Joined: 8/24/2007
From: MN
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it's riveting conversation in Sturgis talking about the new naked lady tattoo you got in the last 12 months year.

How is your health? Are you eating, exercising, and keeping your weight down as you should? I wear a mask in public but I am probably above average health wise but I am not going to comment on the Sturgis rally....for some that is all they have. If they don't have it they figure they may as well be dead.

Been to a Sturgis rally before? I haven't myself but I know there are concerts and other things going on than just what you mention.

_____________________________

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KIA 23 March 2007 Habbaniyah Iraq

Post #: 694

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:51:46 PM

Brad H

Posts: 22956
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

The city of Sturgis gets a mind-numbing 95% of its annual revenue from the bike rally so cancelling it would have been a disaster. And most businesses in town completely count on it to make their year.

Heaven for bid the 6,900-person town of Sturgis would risk few businesses remaining solvent over a handful of deaths.

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 695

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:54:48 PM

Phil Riewer

Posts: 27231
Joined: 8/24/2007
From: MN
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

The city of Sturgis gets a mind-numbing 95% of its annual revenue from the bike rally so cancelling it would have been a disaster. And most businesses in town completely count on it to make their year.

Heaven for bid the 6,900-person town of Sturgis would risk few businesses remaining solvent over a handful of deaths.

So have you complained more about the Stugis rally or the Subway being opened in NY?

_____________________________

SSG Riewer, Greg A Co 2/136 CAB
KIA 23 March 2007 Habbaniyah Iraq

Post #: 696

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:56:37 PM

David Levine

Posts: 77792
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

You start becoming symptomatic in that time. Then it is a matter of when or if you get tested. None of that takes into consideration, how many are infected and asymptomatic, spreading the disease without knowing they have it.

Right, but my whole point is that these same things would be happening with people had they stayed at home. Brad assumed that 260 new cases came from the Rally, but 417 cases would have came from those people if they had picked up the disease at the same rate of the average American.

Are you comparing staying at home with attending a very crowded event with literally no precautions taken?

Other the people that got really sick, how many Sturgis attendees do you think have had a COVID test since?

Look, I agree that we'll probably never know just how many people will be affected by Sturgis. But we do have enough data that its probably safe to assume the number is WAY more than reported. And magnitudes higher than for people who "stay at home".

Post #: 697

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 1:59:59 PM

David Levine

Posts: 77792
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

The city of Sturgis gets a mind-numbing 95% of its annual revenue from the bike rally so cancelling it would have been a disaster. And most businesses in town completely count on it to make their year.

Heaven for bid the 6,900-person town of Sturgis would risk few businesses remaining solvent over a handful of deaths.

So have you complained more about the Stugis rally or the Subway being opened in NY?

Apples and Oranges.

The NY subway ridership is at 20% of of pre-pandemic levels and people are wearing masks and social distancing as they can. None of that applies to Sturgis

In countries where the pandemic has ebbed, ridership has rebounded in far greater numbers than in New York City — yet there have been no notable superspreader events linked to mass transit, according to a survey of transportation agencies conducted by The New York Times.

Those findings could be evidence that subways, commuter railways and buses may not be a significant source of transmission, as long as riders wear masks and train cars or buses never become as intensely crowded as they did in pre-pandemic rush hours.

The low infection rates on some public transportation systems can be attributed, in part, to measures transit agencies have adopted, including mandating face masks; disinfecting trains and buses; and ramping up service and asking businesses to stagger work hours to reduce rush-hour crowding.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/02/nyregion/nyc-subway-coronavirus-safety.html

Post #: 698

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 2:00:29 PM 1 votes

unome

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it's riveting conversation in Sturgis talking about the new naked lady tattoo you got in the last 12 months year.

The Rally is awesome. So many people from all over the country, and even the World, coming together to have a great time.

I am not a biker, but bikers do not fall into easy stereotypes. A ton of doctors and dentists and other professionals come to Sturgis. I suppose you have to have some serious coin to buy a new Harley, especially if you live in a state where you cannot ride it all year.

There are super kind bikers from small rural towns with their Christian Motorcycle Association patch on their vest and then there are guys with '1%er' patches and they are often pretty nice too, but you do NOT want to get on their bad side.

And, yes, there are more than a few tattoos on display.

Post #: 699

RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 9/1/2020 2:00:48 PM

Brad H

Posts: 22956
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

The city of Sturgis gets a mind-numbing 95% of its annual revenue from the bike rally so cancelling it would have been a disaster. And most businesses in town completely count on it to make their year.

Heaven for bid the 6,900-person town of Sturgis would risk few businesses remaining solvent over a handful of deaths.

So have you complained more about the Stugis rally or the Subway being opened in NY?

Again, lets not conflate the two as if they are equal. One serves the purpose of transportation for a major city. The other serves the purpose of getting drunk and showing off the latest Bald Eagle tattoo.

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 700