bohumm
Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
Status: offline
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So I know that anytime virus is present in exhaled droplets (in the case of COVID-19), contagion is possible. I also know that asymptomatic transmission happens, though at what level is unknown/in dispute. The likelihood of contagion in all situations, including these, increases tremendously with time, proximity, less dispersal, low/no barriers, and---importantly---viral load. So with less sick people outdoors with distance/barriers/limited time of exposure, there is a small chance of contagion, and as the situation worsens with sicker people with greater viral load indoors without sufficient distance or barriers and more time of exposure, etc, the chances increase dramatically. I looked up what Mark asked about and found discussion about people who still test positive after their illness and symptoms have abated. They are deemed to be non-contagious if enough time has passed beyond initial symptoms, but there is dispute about why they are still testing positive---often amongst negative tests---and whether they are truly past their illness. So Mark's initial premise---that people can test positive but not be contagious---may be correct in this kind of scenario, and maybe others. This virus is hard to fight for reasons specific to the virus itself as well as societal issues from resources/lack thereof to how we view our obligations to each other, the economics of varying degrees of shutdown, etc. Often arguments are justified by reasons amounting to "deaths are mostly limited to old/sick/fat people, so that's OK" all the way to essentially saying levels of morbidity and mortality well south of seasonal flu would still be unacceptable. The discussion/debate has to be more nuanced and specific to this pathogen/pandemic if we are to arrive at pathways out of our situation that actually preserve health as well as they least level of disruption to society and the economy consistent with meeting those health objectives. This isn't an episode of "House" or "Grey's Anatomy," this is real life, and it's real hard.
< Message edited by bohumm -- 9/9/2020 1:38:52 PM >
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