quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

Just to complete my thought process

Murray IMO looks like a perfect candidate for the KOC model: find an under-performing veteran, get him to his ceiling in the regular season only to have him crap out playoff time by doing the same exact things he was doing in-season (ie, not playoff things) ... and still get a huge contract elsewhere.

That is the pattern so far. Not in stone but certainly in graphite or Darwin's Bark Spider Silk (thank you google).

Developing a young player (JJ, Hall, Brosmer), not so much.

We'll see. I haven't a clue about how this will turn out.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Murray certainly has talent but I'm not seeing a system fit here.

We're going to see truly how good or bad O'Connell is at coaching this year. While I don't expect O'Connell to install the "Air Raid" offense this off season he will still need to do something entirely different than what he has for Murray and this offense to be successful.

I'm not holding my breath. If I were to make a prediction it would be he will continue the same offense and we'll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and O'Connell will be fired.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Murray certainly has talent but I'm not seeing a system fit here.

We're going to see truly how good or bad O'Connell is at coaching this year. While I don't expect O'Connell to install the "Air Raid" offense this off season he will still need to do something entirely different than what he has for Murray and this offense to be successful.

I'm not holding my breath. If I were to make a prediction it would be he will continue the same offense and we'll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and O'Connell will be fired.

quote:

ORIGINAL: stfrank

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Murray certainly has talent but I'm not seeing a system fit here.

We're going to see truly how good or bad O'Connell is at coaching this year. While I don't expect O'Connell to install the "Air Raid" offense this off season he will still need to do something entirely different than what he has for Murray and this offense to be successful.

I'm not holding my breath. If I were to make a prediction it would be he will continue the same offense and we'll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and O'Connell will be fired.

To me KOC is becoming more like Childress where his system is the only way to do things and you will do it or be gone.....
I hope I'm wrong and he can make his system adapt to his players strengths instead just trying to plug a round peg into a square hole.

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

quote:

ORIGINAL: Richard Neussendorfer

quote:

ORIGINAL: stfrank

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Murray certainly has talent but I'm not seeing a system fit here.

We're going to see truly how good or bad O'Connell is at coaching this year. While I don't expect O'Connell to install the "Air Raid" offense this off season he will still need to do something entirely different than what he has for Murray and this offense to be successful.

I'm not holding my breath. If I were to make a prediction it would be he will continue the same offense and we'll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and O'Connell will be fired.

To me KOC is becoming more like Childress where his system is the only way to do things and you will do it or be gone.....
I hope I'm wrong and he can make his system adapt to his players strengths instead just trying to plug a round peg into a square hole.

Better hope the defense can be as good as it was for the last month this past season. Our best option to score is gone at wideout and these qbs are marginal at best.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Richard Neussendorfer

quote:

ORIGINAL: stfrank

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Murray certainly has talent but I'm not seeing a system fit here.

We're going to see truly how good or bad O'Connell is at coaching this year. While I don't expect O'Connell to install the "Air Raid" offense this off season he will still need to do something entirely different than what he has for Murray and this offense to be successful.

I'm not holding my breath. If I were to make a prediction it would be he will continue the same offense and we'll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and O'Connell will be fired.

To me KOC is becoming more like Childress where his system is the only way to do things and you will do it or be gone.....
I hope I'm wrong and he can make his system adapt to his players strengths instead just trying to plug a round peg into a square hole.

Better hope the defense can be as good as it was for the last month this past season. Our best option to score is gone at wideout and these qbs are marginal at best.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Richard Neussendorfer

quote:

ORIGINAL: stfrank

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Murray certainly has talent but I'm not seeing a system fit here.

We're going to see truly how good or bad O'Connell is at coaching this year. While I don't expect O'Connell to install the "Air Raid" offense this off season he will still need to do something entirely different than what he has for Murray and this offense to be successful.

I'm not holding my breath. If I were to make a prediction it would be he will continue the same offense and we'll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and O'Connell will be fired.

To me KOC is becoming more like Childress where his system is the only way to do things and you will do it or be gone.....
I hope I'm wrong and he can make his system adapt to his players strengths instead just trying to plug a round peg into a square hole.

Better hope the defense can be as good as it was for the last month this past season. Our best option to score is gone at wideout and these qbs are marginal at best.

In the last month we played
Wash
Dal
NYG
Det
GB (3rd team and street urchins)

Det was the only quality win. Dal somewhat but they put up 26 points.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Richard Neussendorfer

quote:

ORIGINAL: stfrank

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Murray certainly has talent but I'm not seeing a system fit here.

We're going to see truly how good or bad O'Connell is at coaching this year. While I don't expect O'Connell to install the "Air Raid" offense this off season he will still need to do something entirely different than what he has for Murray and this offense to be successful.

I'm not holding my breath. If I were to make a prediction it would be he will continue the same offense and we'll be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and O'Connell will be fired.

To me KOC is becoming more like Childress where his system is the only way to do things and you will do it or be gone.....
I hope I'm wrong and he can make his system adapt to his players strengths instead just trying to plug a round peg into a square hole.

Better hope the defense can be as good as it was for the last month this past season. Our best option to score is gone at wideout and these qbs are marginal at best.

Nailor had 400 some yards and 4 tds last year. Yeah we will need to replace him but you still have Addison and JJ.

QBs are marginal? You must have watched the Brosmer and Wentz games were we couldn't move the ball with Brosmer and couldn't score a TD with Wentz.

JJ and Kyler have the ceiling you want.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Our best option to score is gone at wideout...

LOL Richard, you are correct.

Nailor (4) had almost as many TDs as Jefferson (2) and Addision (3) combined.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Jason Harmon

@JasonHarmonNFL
·
1h
The Vikings signed Kyler Murray for $4 million less than the Cardinals paid Gardner Minshew and people are somehow mad about this.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Literally nobody is mad about the financials. $1.3 million is beyond cheap. It's a steal.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

QBs are marginal? You must have watched the Brosmer and Wentz games were we couldn't move the ball with Brosmer and couldn't score a TD with Wentz.

JJ and Kyler have the ceiling you want.


So by your 'logic' JJM was NOT marginal because he played better than Wentz (even though Wentz had a higher QBR) and Brosmer? That doesn't even make sense and if it did is an incredibly low bar.

JJM has the ceiling you want? LOL, what ceiling? He can't even find his floor because it caved in!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Why repost a retort in search of a gripe? Must be a reflection of how you feell/think.

Literally nobody is mad about the financials. $1.3 million is beyond cheap. It's a steal!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

QBs are marginal? You must have watched the Brosmer and Wentz games were we couldn't move the ball with Brosmer and couldn't score a TD with Wentz.

JJ and Kyler have the ceiling you want.


So by your 'logic' JJM was NOT marginal because he played better than Wentz (even though Wentz had a higher QBR) and Brosmer? That doesn't even make sense and if it did is an incredibly low bar.

JJM has the ceiling you want? LOL, what ceiling? He can't even find his floor because it caved in!

Road wins at Detroit and Chicago on Prime Time and other handful of games. 5-4 record in 9 games.

JJ had 11 TDs passing, 4 rushing TDs in 9 games. Wentz had 6 TDs in 5 games.....and we couldn't score points with Wentz.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Why repost a retort in search of a gripe? Must be a reflection of how you feell/think.

Literally nobody is mad about the financials. $1.3 million is beyond cheap. It's a steal!

You just posted his stats from 2025....you mean you posted those and are happy?

So you and Richard just enjoy bitching then?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

QBs are marginal? You must have watched the Brosmer and Wentz games were we couldn't move the ball with Brosmer and couldn't score a TD with Wentz.

JJ and Kyler have the ceiling you want.


So by your 'logic' JJM was NOT marginal because he played better than Wentz (even though Wentz had a higher QBR) and Brosmer? That doesn't even make sense and if it did is an incredibly low bar.

JJM has the ceiling you want? LOL, what ceiling? He can't even find his floor because it caved in!

Road wins at Detroit and Chicago on Prime Time and other handful of games. 5-4 record in 9 games.

JJ had 11 TDs passing, 4 rushing TDs in 9 games. Wentz had 6 TDs in 5 games.....and we couldn't score points with Wentz.