quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson
But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

I'm not saying he will lead us to the Promised Land and he might not be a good fit for KOC's offense.

But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

I'm not saying he will lead us to the Promised Land and he might not be a good fit for KOC's offense.

But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

Well, for one the list of facts does not cover his "career". In fact, it specifically mentions the last 4 years (earlier I had said last 5 years).

Secondly, the category covering the shortest throws is 15+ yards.

So yeah, I stand corrected by saying he is bad in all phases. Because based on your 67% it sounds like he is really, really good at completing checkdowns.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

I'm not saying he will lead us to the Promised Land and he might not be a good fit for KOC's offense.

But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

Well, for one the list of facts does not cover his "career". In fact, it specifically mentions the last 4 years (earlier I had said last 5 years).

Secondly, the category covering the shortest throws is 15+ yards.

So yeah, I stand corrected by saying he is bad in all phases. Because based on your 67% it sounds like he is really, really good at completing checkdowns.

As a Viking fan I guess I will hope that his mediocre WRs in AZ were the reason that lead to the bad stats.

He had a prime Deandre Hopkins early on in his career and then had a past his prime AJ Green for awhile. Zach Ertz was there too.

Like I said before, who knows what he will bring to the table. It's possible JJM wins the job.

It should be interesting.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

I'm not saying he will lead us to the Promised Land and he might not be a good fit for KOC's offense.

But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

I'm not saying he will lead us to the Promised Land and he might not be a good fit for KOC's offense.

But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

Well, for one the list of facts does not cover his "career". In fact, it specifically mentions the last 4 years (earlier I had said last 5 years).

Secondly, the category covering the shortest throws is 15+ yards.

So yeah, I stand corrected by saying he is bad in all phases. Because based on your 67% it sounds like he is really, really good at completing checkdowns.

As a Viking fan I guess I will hope that his mediocre WRs in AZ were the reason that lead to the bad stats.

He had a prime Deandre Hopkins early on in his career and then had a past his prime AJ Green for awhile. Zach Ertz was there too.

Like I said before, who knows what he will bring to the table. It's possible JJM wins the job.

It should be interesting.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was there too but Murray was out for 2024 and most of 2025 due to injuries. Kind of like McCarthy.

quote:

ORIGINAL: nfrosty

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

I'm not saying he will lead us to the Promised Land and he might not be a good fit for KOC's offense.

But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

There does seem to be some conflict in how Murrays ability is being calculated. Here's another online sports writers analysis of Murray.

"The Vikings are not onboarding an honest-to-goodness reclamation story in Murray; he’s different than the aforementioned Darnold, who had accomplished virtually nothing until he arrived in Minnesota for the 2024 season.

Murray has started 74% of all eligible games in his career, a percentage that would be closer to 80% had the Cardinals not “softly benched” him in 2025. He has the above-listed two Pro Bowls to his name, 4.38 speed coming out of the draft in 2019, can throw the football 65-70 yards, and is the fifth-most accurate quarterback in NFL history.

The 28-year-old also has a 0.090 career EPA+CPOE, ranking better than Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and C.J. Stroud, to name a few. His career EPA+CPOE closely mirrors Justin Herbert’s from the 2025 campaign."

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

This is...not ideal...

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/kyler-murray-deep-ball-stats-trade-analysis-2026/#

Bump.

The facts show Murray sucks at pretty much all levels of passing but especially the deep and medium throws.

As it stands he's probably the worse fit possible.

Prediction: Murray-Mania grows over the summer. KOC will not change his system. Once the games begin Murray will find some early success by going off script like Dobbs did. Defenses will adapt and bottle that up, especially because injuries and age have slowed Murray's running/scrambling ability. Murray will tease and some fans will want to resign him for a fairly large contract based on the age old yet nebulous and fanciful 'just imagine what he could do in his second season here.'

I'm not saying he will lead us to the Promised Land and he might not be a good fit for KOC's offense.

But, how do you complete 67% of your passes during your career and suck at all levels of passing?

Well, for one the list of facts does not cover his "career". In fact, it specifically mentions the last 4 years (earlier I had said last 5 years).

Secondly, the category covering the shortest throws is 15+ yards.

So yeah, I stand corrected by saying he is bad in all phases. Because based on your 67% it sounds like he is really, really good at completing checkdowns.

As a Viking fan I guess I will hope that his mediocre WRs in AZ were the reason that lead to the bad stats.

He had a prime Deandre Hopkins early on in his career and then had a past his prime AJ Green for awhile. Zach Ertz was there too.

Like I said before, who knows what he will bring to the table. It's possible JJM wins the job.

It should be interesting.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was there too but Murray was out for 2024 and most of 2025 due to injuries. Kind of like McCarthy.

Harrison has been a disappointment for the most part. Maybe it is the QB situation in AZ but I read he struggled with the speed of the NFL his rookie year.

Stat I looked up.

Yards per attempt

Murray 7.1 career

Tom Brady 7.4 career

Caleb Williams 6.9 2025

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

Bo Nix has averaged 6.5 for his career and there people who complain how bad the Vikings blew it by not drafting him.

quote:

ORIGINAL: nfrosty

I can see where Murray would have a strong short passing stats. Dual threat QB's often draw a spy. That has to leave someone open in the short game most likely a tight end or running back. Nothing wrong with the short game. Tarkenton made a living out the short game not to mention the 49's west coast offense.

quote:

ORIGINAL: nfrosty

I can see where Murray would have a strong short passing stats. Dual threat QB's often draw a spy. That has to leave someone open in the short game most likely a tight end or running back. Nothing wrong with the short game. Tarkenton made a living out the short game not to mention the 49's west coast offense.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Usually when I see a stat about a player that is compared with 2-3 specific players and eras, I suspect it's cherry-picked. A quick look at NFL stats for the position, the players season/career, etc. puts things in perspective.

Same as oh such and such played great whenever 43% of people in Thailand ate spaghetti with a fork left-handed during a monsoon.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: nfrosty

I can see where Murray would have a strong short passing stats. Dual threat QB's often draw a spy. That has to leave someone open in the short game most likely a tight end or running back. Nothing wrong with the short game. Tarkenton made a living out the short game not to mention the 49's west coast offense.

We do need a receiving RB....Jones is above average when healthy but it is time. I know that Murray hasn't played with a top end RB either.....so say we draft Love?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

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ORIGINAL: nfrosty

I can see where Murray would have a strong short passing stats. Dual threat QB's often draw a spy. That has to leave someone open in the short game most likely a tight end or running back. Nothing wrong with the short game. Tarkenton made a living out the short game not to mention the 49's west coast offense.

We do need a receiving RB....Jones is above average when healthy but it is time. I know that Murray hasn't played with a top end RB either.....so say we draft Love?

How do we get into the Top 8 to get him?

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ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

The focus needs to be on putting in a good run offense. Things are so much easier with a good running attack.....we haven't had that since AP.

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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Usually when I see a stat about a player that is compared with 2-3 specific players and eras, I suspect it's cherry-picked. A quick look at NFL stats for the position, the players season/career, etc. puts things in perspective.

Same as oh such and such played great whenever 43% of people in Thailand ate spaghetti with a fork left-handed during a monsoon.

I was just responding to your critiques. First he couldn't complete passes at any level and then he turned into a check down artist.

Would it really be cherry picking if I picked the GOAT and a guy(Williams) who won the NFCN and a playoff game this year?

quote:

ORIGINAL: nfrosty

I can see where Murray would have a strong short passing stats. Dual threat QB's often draw a spy. That has to leave someone open in the short game most likely a tight end or running back. Nothing wrong with the short game. Tarkenton made a living out the short game not to mention the 49's west coast offense.

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ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Usually when I see a stat about a player that is compared with 2-3 specific players and eras, I suspect it's cherry-picked. A quick look at NFL stats for the position, the players season/career, etc. puts things in perspective.

Same as oh such and such played great whenever 43% of people in Thailand ate spaghetti with a fork left-handed during a monsoon.

I was just responding to your critiques. First he couldn't complete passes at any level and then he turned into a check down artist.

Would it really be cherry picking if I picked the GOAT and a guy(Williams) who won the NFCN and a playoff game this year?

I mentioned being wrong about the any-level remark, but not that he turned into a check down artist... just that the numbers suggest that. That is, if he had lousy completion percentages with the long and medium throws then he had to be doing something right in the short game.

Re cherry picking, it starts with whether you (i.e. anyone) picked them randomly or selected them from a list after seeing the numbers. But I would have used QBs who have been in the league a comparable time vs for for example two years. And Caleb's 58% (!) completion percentage in 2025 adversely affected his yards per attempt big time Also, precisely because Brady is the GOAT often the comparos don't mean anything. From his being drafted in the 6th round "so there is a chance" to going to Tampa Bay and winning a SB as a senior citizen for those who don't mind signing age 43 year old QBs to everything in between, his career is a unicorn.

Why not instead see where a stat/ranking is among all QBs for the past say three years? Wouldn't that present a broader, more unbiased picture?

Basically, any comparison with two other players doesn't tell the story. It's just a factoid.

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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Usually when I see a stat about a player that is compared with 2-3 specific players and eras, I suspect it's cherry-picked. A quick look at NFL stats for the position, the players season/career, etc. puts things in perspective.

Same as oh such and such played great whenever 43% of people in Thailand ate spaghetti with a fork left-handed during a monsoon.

I was just responding to your critiques. First he couldn't complete passes at any level and then he turned into a check down artist.

Would it really be cherry picking if I picked the GOAT and a guy(Williams) who won the NFCN and a playoff game this year?

I mentioned being wrong about the any-level remark, but not that he turned into a check down artist... just that the numbers suggest that. That is, if he had lousy completion percentages with the long and medium throws then he had to be doing something right in the short game.

Re cherry picking, it starts with whether you (i.e. anyone) picked them randomly or selected them from a list after seeing the numbers. But I would have used QBs who have been in the league a comparable time vs for for example two years. And Caleb's 58% (!) completion percentage in 2025 adversely affected his yards per attempt big time Also, precisely because Brady is the GOAT often the comparos don't mean anything. From his being drafted in the 6th round "so there is a chance" to going to Tampa Bay and winning a SB as a senior citizen for those who don't mind signing age 43 year old QBs to everything in between, his career is a unicorn.

Why not instead see where a stat/ranking is among all QBs for the past say three years? Wouldn't that present a broader, more unbiased picture?

Basically, any comparison with two other players doesn't tell the story. It's just a factoid.

Fair enough.

There are so many variables(positives and negatives) from his career in general that we really won't know what we get until the games are played. To claim that he will rip it up or suck at this point is just a total guess.