Bill Johanesen
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Unless they add some lower tiers or JJM has photos of the Wilfs with sheep, there is no way his 5th year option is picked up next May. For Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy—the #10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft—the 5th-year option for the 2028 NFL season will cost a projected $26 million to $30 million. Because McCarthy was named the backup to Kyler Murray for the 2026 season after playing just 10 games in 2025, his valuation is uniquely tied to his sudden playing time deficit. His specific tier-by-tier option breakdown is structured as follows: McCarthy's 5th-Year Option Tiers (2028 Season) Tier 4 (Basic): ~$26 Million Likelihood: High. The Situation: If McCarthy remains a backup or fails to meet the NFL's strict 75% lifetime snap counts over his first three seasons, he defaults to this base tier. For quarterbacks, this is calculated using the average of the 3rd through 25th highest salaries at the position, placing it right around the $26 million mark. Tier 3 (Playtime Benchmark): ~$30 Million Likelihood: Moderate. The Situation: To trigger this tier, he must reclaim the starting job and play 75% or more of the team's offensive snaps in two of his first three seasons, or average 75% across all three. If achieved, the option climbs to an average of the 3rd through 20th highest QB salaries. Tiers 1 & 2 (Pro Bowl Levels): $45 Million+ Likelihood: Very Low. The Situation: If McCarthy achieves a late-career surge and earns one or two Pro Bowl nods on the original ballot before 2027, the price tag skyrockets. This would automatically match the Transition or Franchise Tag amount for QBs, which is expected to easily clear $45 million by 2028. The Decision Timeline The Minnesota Vikings (or any team that trades for him) must officially make a decision on whether to exercise or decline this option in May 2027. If they choose to pick it up, the amount becomes 100% fully guaranteed the moment it is triggered. Given the ongoing quarterback competition and heavy trade rumors surrounding him, his playing time over the next year will completely dictate if a team is willing to lock in that fully guaranteed total.
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