RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond)

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 6:19:00 PM

marty

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It wasn't foolish to write off KC, they didn't win the SB. They had a fast start, and faded fast. It also wasn't foolish to write off Carolina, they also didn't win the SB, and didn't win a playoff game. But I think getting to the playoffs was a good first step for them, and they could be a contender this year (they ARE 1 of my 9), if losing the Captain doesn't hurt them too much

.

I don't think a good FA move or 2, or a couple of draft picks is going to make one of the 23 teams I put out of contention, into contention. They MIGHT make the playoffs, but I don't think they'll have enough to win a SB.

Here are a few teams that I might have included as having chance, and why I do NOT think they belong on the list (the list of 9 contenders) :

KC - The honeymoon is over with Ried, they're likely to take a step back. SD and Denver are better, even Oakland might give them some trouble. I don't think Ried will ever win a SB.

Cincy - They lost a good DC, Michael Johnson, and really got mopped up at home against SD in the playoffs. I don't think Lewis will ever win a SB as HC. I suspect the Steelers and Ravens will probably both be a little better, so it will be hard for Cincy to even repeat as division champ.

Dallas - Romo. OC is clueless, and HC is probably a waste of time. They also lost Ware, and will likely be not as good as they were last year, and they won 8 games last year. They COULD win more games next year, but I don't think they'll go anywhere in the playoffs.

Arizona - I have no faith in Carson Palmer ever winning a SB, I don't think he has the 'it' factor. They might sneak into the playoffs, but will probably be one and done if they get in.

Detroit - Could be a team that surprises if they've gotten a good HC, but I can't really see them winning more than the division. Bush and Tate can be good leaders, but I just can't picture Stafford winning the SB this coming season. Suh will continue to keep the refs against this team, and they have a history of losing.

Baltimore, Pittsburgh - While they could both bounce back with good seasons, I don't think they've done enough to make themselves once again a SB team.

NY Giants - seemed pretty far removed from a SB team last year, and now they've lost Nicks, Tuck, Joseph, etc ....

Chicago - Too many holes on their defense, and losing Peppers and signing as safety like MD Jennings tells me they might be a ways from figuring out how to have a strong defense.

St. Louis - I think Fisher is a good HC, there are just too many holes. I can't picture Bradford winning a SB, at least not next year.

Philly - One of the harder teams to keep off my list of contenders. Their HC got their offense moving the ball, but I wonder if JC is correct and Foles just got lucky, or do the WRs play hard for him. If it was luck, they'll probably take a step back, if not, their defense did play better down the stretch last year, so they can once again win the division. They might win a playoff game, but still don't see them as a SB team.

A little more analysis than I really wanted to do. But if any of you think one of these teams will win the SB (or any of the other 23 teams I list as NOT in contention), please explain why I should have picked them as a contender.

< Message edited by marty -- 3/15/2014 6:27:28 PM >

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 6:25:22 PM

Ian Joseph

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Well, guess you've got it all figured out. I'll let the NFL know we don't need to have the draft and we can just skip the regular season.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 6:31:34 PM

marty

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Tell me where I'm wrong. Tell me a team that you think should be included as a contender, and why.

I think it's going to be 1 of these 9 teams:

New England, Indianapolis, Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco

They all have the same HC, most of them have probably stayed about the same or gotten better in FA.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 6:33:56 PM

69in09

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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Tell me where I'm wrong. Tell me a team that you think should be included as a contender, and why.

I think it's going to be 1 of these 9 teams:

New England, Indianapolis, Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco

They all have the same HC, most of them have probably stayed about the same or gotten better in FA.

Football games aren't won "on paper".

< Message edited by 69in09 -- 3/15/2014 7:07:56 PM >

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 6:35:49 PM

marty

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Criticize my picks all you want, but until I hear a convincing argument for one of the other 23 teams, I'm going to assume 1 of those 9 teams will win the SB next year.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 7:09:44 PM

69in09

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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Criticize my picks all you want, but until I hear a convincing argument for one of the other 23 teams, I'm going to assume 1 of those 9 teams will win the SB next year.

Marty I don't think anyone is questioning your picks, as much as why you would try to make them in March.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 7:24:01 PM

Ian Joseph

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quote:

ORIGINAL: 69in09

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Criticize my picks all you want, but until I hear a convincing argument for one of the other 23 teams, I'm going to assume 1 of those 9 teams will win the SB next year.

Marty I don't think anyone is questioning your picks, as much as why you would try to make them in March.

This.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 7:24:52 PM

Ian Joseph

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quote:

ORIGINAL: 69in09

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Tell me where I'm wrong. Tell me a team that you think should be included as a contender, and why.

I think it's going to be 1 of these 9 teams:

New England, Indianapolis, Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco

They all have the same HC, most of them have probably stayed about the same or gotten better in FA.

Football games aren't won "on paper".

Actually, Seattle has lost players. They haven't gotten better. Ditto for Carolina and Denver.

< Message edited by Ian Joseph -- 3/15/2014 7:25:59 PM >

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 7:26:38 PM

Ricky J

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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Criticize my picks all you want, but until I hear a convincing argument for one of the other 23 teams, I'm going to assume 1 of those 9 teams will win the SB next year.

I'll bet you $20. And it has to be paid with a check.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 7:28:42 PM

Ian Joseph

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Criticize my picks all you want, but until I hear a convincing argument for one of the other 23 teams, I'm going to assume 1 of those 9 teams will win the SB next year.

I'll bet you $20. And it has to be paid with a check.

Be careful.. he wont take it until he sees the playoff teams and at least half of his 9 have qualified.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 7:32:51 PM

Ricky J

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Criticize my picks all you want, but until I hear a convincing argument for one of the other 23 teams, I'm going to assume 1 of those 9 teams will win the SB next year.

I'll bet you $20. And it has to be paid with a check.

Be careful.. he wont take it until he sees the playoff teams and at least half of his 9 have qualified.

He won't even respond. marty is as good anyone when it comes to ignoring things he doesn't want to deal with

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 7:49:17 PM

marty

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Marty I don't think anyone is questioning your picks, as much as why you would try to make them in March.

Normally I would wait until it got closer to the season, and I do make predictions the week before the season starts how I think it will go. What I'm saying is, right now, I think there are really only 9 teams that have a realistic shot of winning the SB, and there is likely very little that will happen between now and the start of the season to change my mind on that.

New England, Indianapolis, Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco

They all have the same HC, most of them have probably stayed about the same or gotten better in FA.

Actually, Seattle has lost players. They haven't gotten better. Ditto for Carolina and Denver.

I think Denver is almost a wash with Talib/Bailey. I think Ware is a HUGE pickup, and Decker a little bit of a loss. I think their either about the same or better.

I'd agree that Seattle and Carolina have lost a little, but the other 7 are about the same or better. 7 of 9 (which is most) have stayed about the same or gotten better. I think Tate is a bit of a loss for Seattle, but I suspect they'll sign somebody, and if Harvin stays healthy, he can pickup the slack or even improve the WR corps. Steve Smith was a great WR for Carolina, but he really was getting up there in age and he, like Tate, lacks size. Both of these teams can gain in size at WR.

I'm really not sure what you want to bet Ricky. You're saying you get the other 23 teams, and I get the 9 listed ? So, if 1 of the 9 listed wins the SB, I win, and if 1 of the other 23 wins the SB, then YOU win ?

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 8:13:25 PM

Ian Joseph

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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Marty I don't think anyone is questioning your picks, as much as why you would try to make them in March.

Normally I would wait until it got closer to the season, and I do make predictions the week before the season starts how I think it will go. What I'm saying is, right now, I think there are really only 9 teams that have a realistic shot of winning the SB, and there is likely very little that will happen between now and the start of the season to change my mind on that.

New England, Indianapolis, Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco

They all have the same HC, most of them have probably stayed about the same or gotten better in FA.

Actually, Seattle has lost players. They haven't gotten better. Ditto for Carolina and Denver.

I think Denver is almost a wash with Talib/Bailey. I think Ware is a HUGE pickup, and Decker a little bit of a loss. I think their either about the same or better.

I'd agree that Seattle and Carolina have lost a little, but the other 7 are about the same or better. 7 of 9 (which is most) have stayed about the same or gotten better. I think Tate is a bit of a loss for Seattle, but I suspect they'll sign somebody, and if Harvin stays healthy, he can pickup the slack or even improve the WR corps. Steve Smith was a great WR for Carolina, but he really was getting up there in age and he, like Tate, lacks size. Both of these teams can gain in size at WR.

I'm really not sure what you want to bet Ricky. You're saying you get the other 23 teams, and I get the 9 listed ? So, if 1 of the 9 listed wins the SB, I win, and if 1 of the other 23 wins the SB, then YOU win ?

Denver also lost DRC, who wont re-sign. Last I checked, Talib is one guy, not two. If Chris Harris isn't ready to go in the opener or early in the season, they have a real problem at cornerback. Decker leaving is kinda big. Andre Caldwell is not going to pick up that slack. I'm not sure they win their division.

And Seattle and Carolina haven't lost a little. Both teams are getting poached. Don't spin it just to make your "prediction" look good.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 10:21:11 PM

Ian Joseph

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And an hour later, the Panthers lost ANOTHER WR. They aint winning shit.

That's why you don't make predictions in March.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 10:29:41 PM

Ricky J

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Correct, marty

< Message edited by Ricky J -- 3/16/2014 9:29:21 AM >

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 10:38:44 PM

marty

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So which of the 23 teams I listed as non-contenders do you think I should have included as a contender ? And why do you think they should be included ?

Denver is all in: With the signings of three Pro Bowlers in pass rusher DeMarcus Ware, cornerback Aqib Talib and hard-hitting safety T.J. Ward, the Broncos made an emphatic statement in free agency that the time is now. These moves will give John Elway and John Fox plenty of wiggle room on draft day and could set them up for selecting No. 32 overall a year from now.

So now you don't think Denver is a contender ? As long as they have Manning, I think they are in contention. I think Ware could make a strong impact. I think their failure will lie more in a HC that took a knee. There is also another team I listed as a contender in their division: San Diego.

I agreed that Seattle and Carolina have lost a little, but as I said, 7 of the other 9 teams are about the same or better. I also think, even with the losses, Seattle and Carolina are still contenders. They both still have the same HCs, and Wilson and Newton are still their QBs. They are still contenders.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 10:55:21 PM

Ian Joseph

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Any team with Manning is a contender. But, it takes 11 guys to win, not one. And with the AFC West playing the NFC West and AFC East this year, the plus the 1st place teams in the AFC North and South, he doesn't have many cakewalks.

I'm not sold just becuz they have Manning. Not in March.

Let me see Von Miller come back healthy. Let me see Chris Harris come back healthy. Let me see a consistent running game with Monte Ball. And heaven forbid somebody else important gets hurt. Once I see all of that, then we will talk. Until then, the only sure thing in Denver is it will be cold in December.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 10:57:43 PM

Ian Joseph

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And here is a bet for you (that I'm actually not giving you, since I've already seen your integrity as a gambler). The Broncos will start 0-1.

I fully expect the NFL to match them against the Seahawks (in Seattle) in the NFL Thursday Night opener.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 11:35:02 PM

marty

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Very valid points Ian, I just wouldn't count the Broncos out.

Although I feel very strongly 1 of the 9 teams listed will win the SB next year, I would rank Denver and Carolina as having the lowest chance.

Right now, if I had to rank them, I would approximately rank them:

1) Seattle 2) New England 3) Green Bay 4) San Diego 5) Indianapolis 6) New Orleans 7) San Francisco 8) Denver 9) Carolina

I was hoping someone would make an argument for another team being on the list. It MIGHT be too early to write off the Steelers, Giants, and Ravens, they could all be right there, almost interchangeable with Denver and Carolina for those last 2 spots. They all 3 have QBs that have been to, or have won the SB in the last 5 years. I didn't really want the list to be as high as 12 teams, and it really seems like those 3 teams probably don't have enough on defense, but they probably DO have enough offense to win the SB.

So for now, I think it's safe to cross off 20 teams as having no chance of winning the SB next season. I have a list of 12 contenders, of which, I think 3 more can be dropped before the season starts, and those 3 are likely to be the Steelers, Giants and Ravens, returning the list back to the original 9.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/15/2014 11:58:14 PM

Ian Joseph

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Its too soon to write off anybody that's not the Raiders or Jaguars. And if either of those teams didn't play in divisions with at least one strong team, I wouldn't write them off either.

But, I'm done with all of this. We have used two pages for all this and its still March. Cant possibly have this convo be realistic before June and that's probably still too early.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/16/2014 8:16:22 AM

Prescott

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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Criticize my picks all you want, but until I hear a convincing argument for one of the other 23 teams, I'm going to assume 1 of those 9 teams will win the SB next year.

Really? You're going to go with 9 out of 32 teams? If only... iiiiiiifff only there were people in this world that would pick TWO out of 32 teams. Could you imagine someone actually doing that? If only people would pick TWO TEAMS that will make it to the Super Bowl, it's such a novel idea. Very difficult to do, which is why no one ever does it. Like you're shown, just getting it to nine is impressive.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/16/2014 10:01:25 AM

marty

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I think there are 20 teams that have virtually NO shot of winning the SB next year, and the Vikes are one of them. Of course they all have chance, I just don't think those 20 have a realistic chance. It's an assessment of about where teams are at. Next off season, I might feel VERY differently, and might only have about 5 teams that I would think had no chance, this year the number is quite high at 20.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/16/2014 10:08:21 AM

Ian Joseph

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Here is a prediction. Christian Ponder is absolutely done in Minnesota.

Why am I actually making this prediction as an absolute? Simple.

ALL of the Christian Ponder jerseys are on clearance at NFLSHOP.com.. ALL OF THEM.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/16/2014 10:15:33 AM

Todd M

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

Here is a prediction. Christian Ponder is absolutely done in Minnesota.

Why am I actually making this prediction as an absolute? Simple.

ALL of the Christian Ponder jerseys are on clearance at NFLSHOP.com.. ALL OF THEM.

Done prior to this year or after?

My guess is he ends up starting a few games this year.

His jersey's are on sale because he stinks and nobody wants them! Shaun, Gonz, and thebigo can only buy so many jerseys.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 3/16/2014 10:17:34 AM

Ian Joseph

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Prior.

NFLShop only blows out player jerseys when they're done with their current teams. They don't just do that becuz they suck.

The most interesting thing is there are about seven different styles of his jersey available.

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