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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond)

 
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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/23/2008 10:26:10 PM   
marty


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Giants by 1

My guess is the bettors will STILL bet Minnesota at home, expecting them to end the choking, and the Giants don't need the game.  It would NOT be stupid to bet Minnesota in a game the Giants don't need, especially looking at what Minnesota (minus Allen and Berrian) did at the Giants last year.  Maybe the Vikes match up well against NY ?

I wish the oddsmakers would have made Minnesota an 8 point favorite, which could have led to the officials helping Minnesota cover a spread that might have looked high to many bettors.  I remember the Packers were 8 point favorites over Denver the last game of a season where Denver was going to rest their starters by halftime.  The line moved up to 11, the Packers still covered (getting a little help from the officials). 

A low line means to me the POSSIBILITY that the refs help the GIANTS at crunchtime (or well before that).  The Vikes might need to beat the GIANTS AND the refs on Sunday.  I think a lopsided win for the Vikes is VERY unlikely.

I think IF the refs might be involved:

Vikes blowout WIN 5% chance
Vikes win close game 15% chance
Giants win close game 50% chance
Giants blowout WIN 30% chance

IF the refs appear unbiased:

Vikes blowout WIN 25% chance
Vikes win close game 50% chance
Giants win close game 15% chance
Giants blowout WIN 10% chance 

< Message edited by marty -- 12/23/2008 10:28:48 PM >
Post #: 76
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 11:47:44 AM   
Don T in CO


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If the sway is in this weekend, here are some games that could be influenced-

CHI @ HOU & NYG @ MIN - both games are kept close for drama purposes; however, the Bears & Bucs might both be influenced to lose to setup the 4PM DAL/PHL game as a winner gets in / loser goes home game.

STL @ ATL & CAR @ NO - ATL gets ahead of STL and CAR @ NO stays close to build drama for the NFC South title.

DEN @ SD - SD wins easily to make-up for Hoculi's blown call in the SD @ DEN game.
Post #: 77
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 11:53:04 AM   
Guest
I tell ya' if I really believed that the league fixes games, by directing the officials to help certain teams, in order to set up favorable viewing matchups and better ratings, I would never, ever watch NFL football.

And now, according to some, the officials are concerned about point spreads.  Boy, what does an official do?  Cheat according to the league mandate, or cheat for the gamblers? 
  Post #: 78
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 12:09:24 PM   
Don T in CO


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pete C

I tell ya' if I really believed that the league fixes games, by directing the officials to help certain teams, in order to set up favorable viewing matchups and better ratings, I would never, ever watch NFL football.

And now, according to some, the officials are concerned about point spreads.  Boy, what does an official do?  Cheat according to the league mandate, or cheat for the gamblers? 


That's what we are trying to figure out.  Personally, I don't give a lot of credence to the sway theory, but I thought it might be fun to play along.  Also, if Marty is right, and if we can figure out when the sways are in play, then we could make Billlllllllllllllllllllllllllllions!!!
Post #: 79
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 12:14:12 PM   
Guest
Or you could just always bet against the Vikings when we are favored by 3 or more.  Over the last five years we haven't fared too well ATS as favorites.
  Post #: 80
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 12:26:50 PM   
jim


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Prediction:

1. Vikings lose
2. Chicago wins
3. We're out, they're in, and the draft thread gets busy
Post #: 81
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 12:32:11 PM   
Don T in CO


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pete C

Or you could just always bet against the Vikings when we are favored by 3 or more.  Over the last five years we haven't fared too well ATS as favorites.


And you're just telling me this now?  I thought we were friends. 
Post #: 82
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 12:46:54 PM   
Guest
quote:

ORIGINAL: Don T in CO

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pete C

Or you could just always bet against the Vikings when we are favored by 3 or more.  Over the last five years we haven't fared too well ATS as favorites.


And you're just telling me this now?  I thought we were friends. 

**************************
Well, after that "second favorite team" remark..........
  Post #: 83
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 12:55:16 PM   
Don T in CO


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pete C

quote:

ORIGINAL: Don T in CO

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pete C

Or you could just always bet against the Vikings when we are favored by 3 or more.  Over the last five years we haven't fared too well ATS as favorites.


And you're just telling me this now?  I thought we were friends. 

**************************
Well, after that "second favorite team" remark..........


I knew I'd never hear the end of that, and rightfully so I guess.
    
Post #: 84
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 1:04:32 PM   
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pete C

I tell ya' if I really believed that the league fixes games, by directing the officials to help certain teams, in order to set up favorable viewing matchups and better ratings, I would never, ever watch NFL football.



I'm with you.
Post #: 85
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 8:02:14 PM   
marty


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I don't REALLY believe the refs are messing with games, but I think it is POSSIBLE !  Just having a little fun with it.   

Don T

I just wanted SOMEONE play along with the IF they are messing with games, and YOU ARE THE MAN !  Thanks for making this more fun (I wish a few others would play along and have some fun).

DEN @ SD - SD wins easily to make-up for Hoculi's blown call in the SD @ DEN game 
 
I disagree with that one.  I think it is TOO EASY of a bet to assume a SD blowout, this one is more complicated, just like the MNF game where I explained why Chicago would win by a FG.

I'm thinking that more bettors will assume a blowout, and therefore EASY money on SD.  IF the refs are messing with it, they will HELP Denver make it close (but will NOT let Denver get too far ahead, like they did NOT with the Packers, letting the Bears get away with an obvious PI on Driver), but I agree that they WILL let SD win at the end, influence it a tad if they need to, for the reasons you listed.

Why do I think the refs might be messing with games? 

Because I think if they did NOT, you would see more NFL blowouts.  And sometimes the officiating seems to have a bias for a reason I can't figure out, they are missing obvious things where it almost looks intentional, and then making calls at the same time against the team getting screwed, to where a pattern can ALMOST be detected.

I don't think the obvious PI on Charles Woodson in game 1 with the Vikings/Packers should have been missed, and it was at a crucial time in the 4th quarter.  It was well past 5 yards, Woodson was NOT looking at the ball, and he eliminated any chance Bobby Wade had of making a catch.  The almost identical thing happened to Wade at the end of the Viking/Packer game LAST year.

I really do NOT understand why a Falcon player was allowed to grab Sydney Rice's arm and hold it down without a flag being thrown on the Vikings final 4th down play.  He was forcing Rice to make a one handed catch.  THIS IS ALLOWED ????

It is true that Rice put his arm out towards the defender to shield him from the ball before the defender grabbed the hand and pulled it down.  Is THIS legal, are WRs allowed to shield a defender from the ball ?  I didn't think there was a rule against that.  IF there is I stand corrected.  But if there is, then RICE should have been flagged.  No call WAS NOT AN OPTION, don't give me any of the b.s. of letting the guys play (break the rules flagrantly), or any of the other CRAP the announcers were spewing that day.   

< Message edited by marty -- 12/24/2008 8:09:02 PM >
Post #: 86
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/24/2008 8:49:29 PM   
Caesar


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I "predict" that everyone is going to have a wonderful Christmas and/or Holiday Season (depending on your beliefs, of course. )

_____________________________

If all mankind minus one were of one opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind. -John Stuart Mill
Post #: 87
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/26/2008 11:38:48 PM   
marty


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I LIKE that the Vikes are favored by 6 1/2, somebody had incorrectly reported a spread of 1 earlier in the week (unless the spread jumped THAT much).  The Vikes MIGHT get unbiased officiating, or even officiating IN THEIR FAVOR.

I now hope the media plays up the Viking choking thing and we get more, or even A LOT more bet on the Giants.  This SEEMS like a favorable matchup for the Vikes should they CAUSE turnovers, instead of ALLOWING them.   
Post #: 88
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 3:42:25 PM   
Don T in CO


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Don T in CO

If the sway is in this weekend, here are some games that could be influenced-

CHI @ HOU & NYG @ MIN - both games are kept close for drama purposes; however, the Bears & Bucs might both be influenced to lose to setup the 4PM DAL/PHL game as a winner gets in / loser goes home game.

STL @ ATL & CAR @ NO - ATL gets ahead of STL and CAR @ NO stays close to build drama for the NFC South title.

DEN @ SD - SD wins easily to make-up for Hoculi's blown call in the SD @ DEN game.


I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'!
Post #: 89
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 4:02:27 PM   
So.Mn.Fan


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Prediction for next week?
(in my best Mr T) ......
PAIN!!!!!!
(to either the Iggles or 'Boys)
Post #: 90
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 4:05:24 PM   
So.Mn.Fan


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Pressure on Romo = Cowboy Mess
The secret to beating them.
Post #: 91
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 4:53:24 PM   
John Childress


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We won't be seeing Romo unless he is transformed into Joe Montana in the 2nd half.

ATL playing at Arizona

THe line has to be ATL by 10!

I would be shocked to see AZ win that game

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No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 92
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 7:04:12 PM   
marty


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I would NOT be shocked to see Arizona pull the upset there.  Arizona can put up points and many QBs have bad games their 1st time out in playoff games.  I would lean towards Atnalta winning because of homefield, but would NOT be suprised to see Arizona give them a game.     
Post #: 93
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 8:13:59 PM   
John Childress


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Zona has the homefield but they really suck

If we win we probably go to Carolina and that will be a VERY tough game for us unless Pat Williams is up to speed

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No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 94
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 9:14:47 PM   
So.Mn.Fan


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I think it will be tough for Philly to get another great performance against us this week.
EVERYTHING went their way today.
That rarely happens back-to-back weeks.
We obviously can't turn the ball over, and we have to try to pound their D-Line.
Keep our D and their O off the field as much as possible.
I see it happening. We're kind of playing with house money at this point, after our poor start.
Every guy keeps talking about the positive chemistry in the "room" and you can kind of see that on the field.
Those are the teams that can get on a roll now.
Philly will be flying high all week, that was a HUGE statement by them today.
They won't be looking to top it next weekend. I think they'll assume they will kick our ass.
We have nothing to lose and we have to play like it.

I'm actually leaning towards Arizona in the other game.
Bad match-up for Atlanta if you ask me.
Cards will be emotional.  
Post #: 95
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 9:22:29 PM   
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: So.Mn.Fan

I think it will be tough for Philly to get another great performance against us this week.
EVERYTHING went their way today.
That rarely happens back-to-back weeks.
We obviously can't turn the ball over, and we have to try to pound their D-Line.
Keep our D and their O off the field as much as possible.
I see it happening. We're kind of playing with house money at this point, after our poor start.
Every guy keeps talking about the positive chemistry in the "room" and you can kind of see that on the field.
Those are the teams that can get on a roll now.
Philly will be flying high all week, that was a HUGE statement by them today.
They won't be looking to top it next weekend. I think they'll assume they will kick our ass.
We have nothing to lose and we have to play like it.

I'm actually leaning towards Arizona in the other game.
Bad match-up for Atlanta if you ask me.
Cards will be emotional.  


Hopefully Vikings fans will hold onto their tickets. If I remember correctly Philadelphia fans travel pretty well. I don't want to hear any more of that "I can't really afford season tickets without selling some premium games" crap!
Post #: 96
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 10:36:31 PM   
Don T in CO


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If the Cards get up early, if that place gets loud, and if they can take ATL out of their running game, then AZ has a chance.  And, if AZ gets down early, they still have the passing game that can come back.  Should be an entertaining game.
Post #: 97
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/28/2008 11:33:03 PM   
John Childress


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I think Arizona stinks and is the worst team to make the playoffs in many years.  When they faced good teams the last month they got smoked.  They didn't just lose, they didn't even show up.

If the Vikings go anywhere in the playoffs this year they will have earned it.

If we beat the Eagles, we will find a much better team in Carolina than we faced in the Dome.

Count on that

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 98
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/29/2008 8:42:42 PM   
Todd M

 

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Out of nowhere Otis Grigsby with 2 sacks a FF and recovery.

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I say Nay Nay!
Post #: 99
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/30/2008 8:35:17 PM   
marty


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Don T, that is 2 weeks in a row where you're just SMOKIN' with your predictions.  Are you always this good ? Perhaps you should be making money betting on games. 

I hope the Vikings' spread stays low so there could be a 'sway' that favors the
Vikes WINNING.  IF the spread starts to get be Philly by 6 or 7, then any ref helping a 'sway' MIGHT just be satisfied if Minnesota covers the spread but LOSES by a FG (like GB covering against Chi week 16, but Chi still winning to be in it the last week).  
Post #: 100
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