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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond)

 
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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/30/2008 9:03:54 PM   
John Childress


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Don T is one of the sharpest minds you will come across anywhere.

He is very analytical and not emotional.

You are right, he would make a great bettor.

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/30/2008 9:11:58 PM   
marty


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You're right about Don, I'm VERY impressed with his predictions in here, it's NOT easy.  I wish MORE posters would make predictions to show that others can do it as well, or to highlight how good Don really is.

Betting, I'm too emotional.

But I DID hit a super teaser in Vegas a few years back, $100 bet that paid 20-1 odds ($2000 payoff, plus the $100 back).  It was a 14 team teaser where the spreads are around 8-10 points off the normal spread.  AND I had to take 2 teams off of my original because of injuries to 2 starting QB, John Elway and Brad Johnson.  Not bad.  I wish I had had MORE opportunities to do some of those super teasers.   
Post #: 102
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/30/2008 9:28:22 PM   
John Childress


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super teasers.

Sounds like a bad date!

Last year my son did a much better job than me picking games.

This year we both stunk.  Then again, I didn't follow as many other teams as I usually do because I was too busy working.

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Post #: 103
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/30/2008 9:59:32 PM   
marty


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What is odd is the week after I hit my super teaser, I hear on ESPN radio late at night the radio announcer saying that he used to live in Vegas and ALL that he bet on was SUPER TEASERS !!!

They are 8 to 10 points off the spread, and sometimes it just seems EASY.  IF a team is a 7 point dog, your probably getting 17 on the super teaser.  OR you can take the favorite and get 3, instead of giving up 7.  Just ALWAYS be on the right side of a blowout and you can do well on super teasers.     
Post #: 104
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/31/2008 10:03:46 AM   
Don T in CO


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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

You're right about Don, I'm VERY impressed with his predictions in here, it's NOT easy.  I wish MORE posters would make predictions to show that others can do it as well, or to highlight how good Don really is.


Thanks JC and marty, but I really can't take credit for my predictions.  I wasn't picking the teams I thought would win, I was just saying "if the 'sway' is in, this is what will happen" and got lucky (or was I? ). 

There are several other regular posters here (Fargo, Steve L, Chris O, and Justin S to name a few) who usually do as well as or better than me in our pick'em pools.
Post #: 105
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 12/31/2008 11:25:44 AM   
Tim Cady

 

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Alright I am not as stable as Don T., but I will get a couple of these right. Best bets against the curve this weekend: San Diego and Arizona.

I posted this on the Gameday thread, but I should also put it here for abuse and accountability purposes. Let me first say the I usually good at picks outside of the Vikings(for obvious emotional reasons), this year would be the exception to the rule. So if you lose your retirement money in Vegas don't come crying to me although, you might have better odds then Wallstreet of late.

Cardinals over Falcons
Chargers over Colts
Dolphins over Ravens
Vikings over Eagles.

Chargers over Tennessee
Dolphins over Pittsburgh
Giants over Cardinals
Vikings over Carolina

Chargers over Dolphins
Vikings over Giants

Vikings over Chargers -

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Post #: 106
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 1:43:49 AM   
marty


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Looking at the spreads:

Ari @ Atl (+1.5)
Bal @ Mia (+2.5)
Phi @ Min (+2.5)
Ind @ SD (+1.0)

I expect at least ONE 'sway', will it be for Arizona, Miami, or Minnesota ?

Is that a misprint or is Atlanta really a 1.5 dog at home against Arizona ?  Shouldn't Atlanta be about a 7 point favorite ?  Wouldn't you be afraid to bet Miami unless you knew the refs would 'sway' the game in Dolphins' favor ? 

Wouldn't you be afraid to bet Minnesota, considering their choking past, their choke 2 weeks ago at home, the game is not sold out, the fact that TJACK is starting, and what Philly did last week ?

Wouldn't you feel REALLY confident betting Atlanta, Baltimore and Philly, or will one or more of the other teams get help from the officials ?

Post #: 107
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 5:50:23 AM   
Tim Cady

 

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The game is in Arizona, marty.

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Post #: 108
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 12:11:58 PM   
John Childress


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Atlanta 33, Arizona 17. Obviously, it's hard to not sing the praises of Matt Ryan, the Offensive Player of the Year. Let's look at how Ryan performed on the road in the most hostile of environments, in games at 2008 playoffs teams: lost at Carolina and Philly, won at San Diego and Minnesota. Total interceptions: two. Total time sacked: six. Ben Roethlisberger on the road against playoff teams this year: 1-2, two picks, 11 sacks. My point is, I don't think Ryan flew cross-country Thursday night thinking to himself: "Gee, this game's going to be too big for me.''


Indianapolis 29, San Diego 23. The Chargers have the best shot of any home 'dog to win this weekend. Peyton Manning is on a ridiculous late-season run, but Philip Rivers might be individually hotter (11 touchdowns, one interception in San Diego's 4-0 December). While I don't think the Colts will go into this game thinking it might be the swan song for Tony Dungy, who is expected to ride off into the real-world sunset after the season, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the trusted defensive vets like Dwight Freeney goes around to his guys when things get hot late in the game and says we're not letting our guy go down like this again, in the first game of the playoffs.


Baltimore 16, Miami 6. They played in Week 7, at Miami, and Baltimore won 27-13. Lesson from that game: Chad Pennington was an efficient 68-percent passer, and the Wildcat gave the Fish nothing. They ran it five times, for minus-one, five, zero, minus-three and three yards. Pennington will try to test Baltimore's corners a few times downfield, and his success or failure will determine the outcome. My view, obviously, is that the Comeback Player of the Year will not have one final comeback in him Sunday. Too much front-seven pressure from the unpredictable Ravens.


Philadelphia 20, Minnesota 13. You put Brad Childress on sodium pentathol, and he'll tell you he wishes he didn't have to run Adrian Peterson so much this year (363 times), helping him to a bad ankle entering the second season. He'll admit it was about right to have Peterson and Chester Taylor combine for 464 carries, but Peterson running it 78 percent of those carries was just too much. Well, forget that now. The Vikes have to get on Peterson's back one more time to have a good chance here, and I say the Eagles -- better than you think against the run, 3.5 yards per opposing carry -- will hold the gimpy Peterson under 80.


PETER KING


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/01/02/wild-card-picks/index.html?bcnn=yes

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Post #: 109
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 12:13:47 PM   
John Childress


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Having 4 divisions leads to Wild Card teams that are better than division winners.

In the old days Atlanta would have been in the West and won that division.

Arizona would have been a last place team in the East

But nothing would have helped the Old AFC West this year!

< Message edited by John Childress -- 1/2/2009 12:15:56 PM >


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Post #: 110
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 12:16:25 PM   
Guest
Now I know I'm in trouble, I agree with Peter King.  I think all wild card teams will not only win, but cover.
  Post #: 111
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 12:24:26 PM   
kurt bilben


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I actually feel better for the Vikes that Peter King picked Philly.
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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 12:30:33 PM   
Tim Cady

 

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I love when all my picks are opposite Peter "I only know women's softball" King.

Feeling better already. I really think Warner will light up Atlanta's secondary. I think Peterson is better than anyone that Philly held to 3.5 yards, I think the Colts luck will run out and I am buying Phillip Rivers this playoff season. Dolphins will have something up their sleeves simliar to week 3 against New England....I just think 4 home dogs have the makings for Sucker bets....I think any team, outside of the Cardinals can make the SB.,this playoff season...I hope I am wrong on the outcome of the Cards game, cause I would like to host Atlanta in the NFC championship game. I do think we would have an easier time with the Panthers than the Eagles....I really hope the inconsistent Eagles show up Sunday....Getting the lead would really help...We have had some 4th quarter comebacks this year though.

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Post #: 113
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 1:12:40 PM   
John Childress


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San Diego is a gutless team.  Tomlinson is the king wuss himself.

Already he is whining about being hurt - this is becoming an annual postseason occurrence.

Man up already LaDanian

I think King is pretty accurate this week

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Post #: 114
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/2/2009 3:55:13 PM   
marty


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John, I thought those were YOUR predictions and comments until I got to the name Peter King.  I think there is a very LOW % chance that ALL FOUR road teams win this week.  I'll go with:

Atlanta 45 Arizona 34
 
Indianapolis 35 San Diego 28
 
Baltimore 16 Miami 19

Philly 23 Minnesota 26 Longwell misses a 38 yarder in regulation, but hits the game winner for 48 yards in OT. TJACK gets HURT, but Guts makes just enough big plays to win the game.  TJACK will also recover and start the following week.  

I think ONE of, or BOTH the Dolphins and Vikings will be helped by a 'sway'.  I might make some alterations before gametime, these are my original gut feelings (which are many times wildly innaccurate).   

< Message edited by marty -- 1/2/2009 8:29:54 PM >
Post #: 115
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 10:05:49 AM   
So.Mn.Fan


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I've got

Arizona 28 Atlanta 20       Difference-makers .... Warner and his Receivers
Indianapolis 28 San Diego 10         Difference maker .... Peyton Manning
Baltimore 24 Miami 21              Difference-makers ..... Baltimore Defense
Minnesota 27 Philadelphia 24         Difference-maker ...... Chester Taylor

< Message edited by So.Mn.Fan -- 1/3/2009 10:09:15 AM >
Post #: 116
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 10:14:33 AM   
Jim Frenette


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quote:

ORIGINAL: So.Mn.Fan

I've got

Arizona 28 Atlanta 20       Difference-makers .... Warner and his Receivers
Indianapolis 28 San Diego 10         Difference maker .... Peyton Manning
Baltimore 24 Miami 21              Difference-makers ..... Baltimore Defense
Minnesota 27 Philadelphia 24         Difference-maker ...... Chester Taylor


Only difference for me is that I think SD beats the Colts

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Post #: 117
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 10:17:15 AM   
drviking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Looking at the spreads:

Ari @ Atl (+1.5)
Bal @ Mia (+2.5)
Phi @ Min (+2.5)
Ind @ SD (+1.0)

I expect at least ONE 'sway', will it be for Arizona, Miami, or Minnesota ?

Is that a misprint or is Atlanta really a 1.5 dog at home against Arizona ?  Shouldn't Atlanta be about a 7 point favorite ?  Wouldn't you be afraid to bet Miami unless you knew the refs would 'sway' the game in Dolphins' favor ? 

Wouldn't you be afraid to bet Minnesota, considering their choking past, their choke 2 weeks ago at home, the game is not sold out, the fact that TJACK is starting, and what Philly did last week ?

Wouldn't you feel REALLY confident betting Atlanta, Baltimore and Philly, or will one or more of the other teams get help from the officials ?




why would the nfl want a 'sway' for minnesota, when they cant sell out their tickets for a home playoff game?

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Post #: 118
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 11:57:32 AM   
Todd M

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jim Frenette

quote:

ORIGINAL: So.Mn.Fan

I've got

Arizona 28 Atlanta 20       Difference-makers .... Warner and his Receivers
Indianapolis 28 San Diego 10         Difference maker .... Peyton Manning
Baltimore 24 Miami 21              Difference-makers ..... Baltimore Defense
Minnesota 27 Philadelphia 24         Difference-maker ...... Chester Taylor


Only difference for me is that I think SD beats the Colts



LT from questionable/probable (toe)  to doubtful (groin).

Detached tendon in his groin.

I thought he was always playing with a couple of things detached from that area anyway...

< Message edited by Todd Mallett -- 1/3/2009 12:06:20 PM >


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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 12:07:56 PM   
Duane Sampson


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Bullshit that we are underdogs at home. We'll see....

Vikes 31-7 and not even a doubt from the start!

AD's big game. And watch the defense come big. Post game interviews for JA, KW and Greenway.

It's the freakin' Eagles!!!!

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 1:21:56 PM   
Jim Frenette


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd Mallett

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jim Frenette

quote:

ORIGINAL: So.Mn.Fan

I've got

Arizona 28 Atlanta 20       Difference-makers .... Warner and his Receivers
Indianapolis 28 San Diego 10         Difference maker .... Peyton Manning
Baltimore 24 Miami 21              Difference-makers ..... Baltimore Defense
Minnesota 27 Philadelphia 24         Difference-maker ...... Chester Taylor


Only difference for me is that I think SD beats the Colts



LT from questionable/probable (toe)  to doubtful (groin).

Detached tendon in his groin.

I thought he was always playing with a couple of things detached from that area anyway...


During the game Sunday they were talking about LT rubbing the area and said he was trying to get the stiffness out. I wonder how long after they said that did they realize how that sounded?

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 5:24:52 PM   
Todd M

 

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Now they say LT is going to play.


I bet it's not for long and not effectively.

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Post #: 122
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 6:04:49 PM   
John Childress


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LT is breaking down

2 years in a row and he can't answer the bell cleanly for the postseason

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Post #: 123
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 7:02:43 PM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

LT is breaking down

2 years in a row and he can't answer the bell cleanly for the postseason



332 carries and 65 receptions on average over his 8 year career.  No surprise.

Peterson is well on his way to his own early demise.
Post #: 124
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 1/3/2009 9:36:32 PM   
John Childress


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

LT is breaking down

2 years in a row and he can't answer the bell cleanly for the postseason



332 carries and 65 receptions on average over his 8 year career.  No surprise.

Peterson is well on his way to his own early demise.


Agreed

I don't want a NFL rushing leader unless he does it by getting close to 6 yards per carry

It is a serious concern that by the time we get our passing game up to snuff Peterson will look more like Edge James does the last few years.

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No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 125
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