SoMnFan
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Insider Predictions.
With spring practices wrapping up across the country, we are putting the final pieces of data together for our annual Football Outsiders projection model for the 2014 season. Factors including five-year program ratings, returning starters, recruiting success and quarterback reliance -- statistical indicators of teams that may take a step forward or a step back next season -- all figure prominently into the projection model.
For this series, we ran projections for team, offensive and defensive efficiency through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings. We then calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected overall regular-season record and the likelihood that each team would claim a conference crown. We also included the likelihood that each team would finish the regular season with one loss or fewer, a likely benchmark for teams to position themselves for a berth in the inaugural national championship playoff.
On Monday, we're looking at projections for the Big Ten. Two new conference members and a new division structure will make for an interesting league title chase in 2014.
Big Ten East
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected finish: 10-2 (6-2)
Chance to win Big Ten: 30 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 31 percent
The Buckeyes were in line for a Bowl Championship Series title game berth last season before stumbling in the Big Ten title game, and they'll get a chance to avenge that loss to Michigan State on Nov. 8 in a showdown that may determine the East division race. Urban Meyer's team has a few key pieces back for the fall, including quarterback Braxton Miller, who could be a Heisman Trophy contender if he can stay healthy and productive. No team was more productive with its back pressed against a wall last season; led by Miller, Ohio State scored 3.9 points per drive on possessions started inside its own 20-yard line, almost three times better than the national average.
2. Michigan State Spartans
Projected finish: 9-3 (6-2)
Chance to win Big Ten: 26 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 17 percent
The reigning Big Ten champs draw the biggest threats to a repeat conference championship berth at home, as Nebraska, Michigan and Ohio State all travel to East Lansing this fall. The toughest challenge the rebuilt defense will face is in nonconference play, with a visit to Autzen Stadium against Oregon on Sept. 6. MSU allowed opposing offenses to earn only 29 percent of available yards last season (measured from starting field position to end zone), and Oregon's offense is projected to be one of the most efficient this fall. The Spartans return only four starters on defense, but coach Mark Dantonio's teams have ranked among the top 10 in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency for three straight seasons, and the projection model likes their chances again this fall.
3. Michigan Wolverines
Projected finish: 8-4 (5-3)
Chance to win Big Ten: 8 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 4 percent
Michigan gave rival Ohio State all it could handle in the Buckeyes' Big Ten regular-season finale, but the Wolverines were a few steps back of their traditional place atop the college football world in 2013. Our projections give them a chance to recover some of that mojo, but they probably won't win a division title this fall. New offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier's primary mission is to get the offense out of its rut. Michigan went three-and-out on 38 percent of its possessions last season (92nd nationally) and produced an explosive drive on only 12 percent of its possessions (73rd nationally).
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent*
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 1 percent
*Ineligible for postseason play
The Nittany Lions won't be able to play in the conference championship game or a bowl game because of ongoing NCAA sanctions stemming from the Jerry Sandusky scandal, but this year is about laying the groundwork for the long-term future, rather than 2014 accolades. New coach James Franklin has made an immediate impact on the recruiting trail, and the energy around the program is building momentum. The biggest impact Franklin can have this fall is getting Penn State's special teams on track. The Nittany Lions ranked 112th in special-teams efficiency, costing themselves more than two points per game, according to our data. Franklin's previous team, Vanderbilt, had a top-30 special-teams unit in each of the past two seasons.
5. Indiana Hoosiers
Projected finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
The Hoosiers have more returning starters than any other Big Ten team, and our projections give Indiana a great shot at making its first bowl appearance since 2007. The season hinges on two swing games: consecutive weeks against Penn State at home and against Rutgers on the road. Both games are toss-ups, according to our model: Win both and they're in great shape; lose both, and they can kiss a bowl bid goodbye. The defense needs the most attention, having allowed 56 percent of opponent drives in 2013 to cross the Indiana 30-yard line (fourth-most nationally). Those value drives will prove to be the difference if Indiana wants to take a step forward.
6. Maryland Terrapins
Projected finish: 5-7 (3-5)
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
Maryland brings back 17 starters, including quarterback C.J. Brown, who accounted for 2,818 yards of total offense in 2013. Brown has seven career games in which he has run for at least 100 yards, and each of the four times he achieved that feat in 2013, the Terrapins won. However, overall efficiency and consistency were elusive. Maryland ranked 93rd in avoiding three-and-outs last season and 123rd in grinding out methodical drives. The Terrapins draw the Big Ten East favorites Ohio State and Michigan State at home, which gives them a 40 percent chance of knocking one of those teams off its championship path, according to our projection model.
7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Projected finish: 4-8 (2-6)
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
No Football Bowl Subdivision team has been playing college football longer than Rutgers, but longevity hasn't produced much success in the past 145 years. Since 1869, the Scarlet Knights have just two victories against programs ranked in the top 10 in winning percentage. Four top-10 programs are Big Ten conference mates for Rutgers, and each is on the schedule this fall (Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State). Rutgers will be an underdog in these games and in every Big Ten game, according to our model. There is an 8 percent chance they'll go winless in conference play.
Big Ten West
1. Wisconsin Badgers
Projected finish: 9-3 (6-2)
Chance to win Big Ten: 17 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 15 percent
No Big Ten team is returning fewer starters this fall than Wisconsin (nine), but the biggest impact on the Badgers' fortunes has little to do with the roster. The new division structure in the Big Ten shifted Wisconsin out of Ohio State's division (the Badgers finished second in the Big Ten Leaders division behind the Buckeyes last season) and paved the way for what may be a clear path to the conference title game. Wisconsin has at least a 70 percent win likelihood in six conference games, and has a great chance to carry an undefeated league record deep into November. Quarterback Joel Stave and running back Melvin Gordon are two of the few experienced players back to lead the offense, a unit that ranked sixth nationally last season in points per methodical drive (5.3).
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected finish: 9-3 (6-2)
Chance to win Big Ten: 13 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 16 percent
Like Wisconsin, Iowa benefited from the division shift by getting away from Michigan State and Ohio State, two of the three conference foes that beat the Hawkeyes last season. Unlike the Badgers, Iowa won't face a potentially elite nonconference opponent; so despite having a smaller chance of topping Wisconsin in the Big Ten race, the Hawkeyes have a slightly better chance to run the table. Eight starters are back on offense, including each of the top five weapons in terms of total offense production. Experience helps, but what the unit really needs to break through is explosiveness. Only 9 percent of Iowa's possessions last season averaged at least 10 yards per play, which ranked just 103rd nationally.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected finish: 8-4 (5-3)
Chance to win Big Ten: 4 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 2 percent
We're not going too far out on a limb to project an 8-4 record for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have lost precisely four games in each of Bo Pelini's six seasons at the helm. That mark ought to be well within their grasp again, but the schedule is projected to keep them out of the conference title chase. Nebraska makes road trips to Michigan State and Wisconsin, and our model gives the Huskers a 57 percent chance of losing both of those games. Nebraska can have a big impact on its 2014 outlook by fixing its field position woes. It allowed a whopping 17 percent of opponent drives to start in Nebraska territory, one of the 10 worst rankings in that stat last season.
4. Northwestern Wildcats
Projected finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Chance to win Big Ten: 1 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
To say the Wildcats' 2013 season went off the rails would be an understatement. Northwestern was undefeated and ranked in the top 20 heading into October, then proceeded to lose seven straight, including several in excruciating fashion. In total, 17 starters will be back this fall to hit the reset button. Like Nebraska, Northwestern struggled at times with field-position management, starting 28 percent of its drives from inside its 20-yard line (114th nationally). Quarterback Trevor Siemian is another key to keeping the Wildcats on track; he had only three touchdown passes and seven interceptions during the losing streak.
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected finish: 5-7 (3-5)
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
Minnesota is projected to slip from last season's eight-win campaign not due to any one particular factor, but the combination of elements in the projection formula. The Gophers rank 71st in our program ratings, with losing records against FBS opponents in four of the past five years. Their recruiting rankings haven't dramatically improved, and among the starters they are looking to replace is the quarterback. Mitch Leidner is the only QB on the roster who saw action on the field last fall and his production was a bit of a mixed bag: He topped the 50 percent completion mark just twice. If he finds consistency, Leidner can lead the Gophers back to a bowl game.
6. Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected finish: 5-7 (2-6)
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
One of the biggest question marks Illinois needs to answer is at the quarterback position. The Illini had a ball-control identity under Nathan Scheelhaase (21 percent of offensive possessions lasted at least 10 plays), but their options at the position this fall include Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt and they may be much more pass-happy to take advantage of his skill set. Their road schedule is brutal, including trips to Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State and a nonconference visit to Washington. If Illinois wants to go bowling, it will need to find six wins among its other eight games.
7. Purdue Boilermakers
Projected finish: 3-9 (1-7)
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Chance to finish 11-1 or 12-0: 0 percent
The Boilermakers were a miserable 0-8 in the Big Ten last season, and a major turnaround this fall is very unlikely. Purdue has at least a 20 percent win likelihood in only two of its conference games, according to our projection model (at Illinois and at home versus Northwestern). The Boilermakers need to improve in every phase of the game if they are going to scratch out any success at all in 2014. Purdue ranked 110th or worse in every one of our offensive and defensive efficiency measures last fall. Punting efficiency was a bright spot on special teams in 2013, but their Ray Guy Award finalist (Cody Webster) at that position has graduated.
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