djskillz
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Joined: 7/17/2007
From: Nashville, TN
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Law's take. Some good stuff in here, especially about the system issues in general towards the end. And I think the bolded is hilarious:
Boston's deal with Cuban shortstop Yoan Moncada destroys the previous record for an international amateur free agent, the $8.25 million Arizona gave to right-hander Yoan Lopez earlier this winter. It's a reflection of Moncada's potential upside as an All-Star bat at second or third base and the hope that his current size means he's not that far from the majors.
Yoan Moncada
Twitter@yoanmoncada
Yoan Moncada goes to Boston -- for a price. That price could shift the future of the draft at least as it relates to Cuba.
Moncada is a very physically developed 19-year-old who projects to hit for power from both sides of the plate, a bat that will profile wherever he lands on the diamond. It won't be at shortstop, his “natural” position, as he's already too big for the spot and, if he continues to grow at all, could bulk himself right off the dirt and into an outfield corner, possibly right field. For now, he's a fit at second or third base, but I'd prefer to see him at third as he has the arm strength and won't take as much of a beating as he would at second base. He's an above-average runner despite his size, more like plus when he's fully underway (similar to Puig), quick enough that he might be able to handle center if the infield doesn't work out, and potentially plus all-around on defense in right. His left-handed swing is ahead of his right-handed swing for now. He's very short to the ball with plus bat speed, with excellent body control and strong hands; his right-handed swing is a bit more rigid and he's not likely to have the same plate coverage, struggling to adjust to offspeed stuff when facing live pitching this winter. He's a potential 20 homer/20 steal guy in the near term, although he may peak with more power than that but is a good bet to lose speed as he gets into his mid- to late 20s given his size.
If Moncada were in the 2015 MLB draft, he'd be the first or second pick, both a testament to his current skill set and to the weakness of the draft class, with no position player close to his potential ability and the top college pitcher, Duke's Michael Matuella, missing his last start with forearm tightness. He'd be a top-10 pick in any draft class, given his potential to play somewhere in the infield and hit for average and power; even if you want to cap his ceiling as that of an average regular at second or third, that's at least a $15-million-a-year player, and the Red Sox would recoup most of their investment before Moncada hits his second year of arbitration.
The Red Sox would appear to have a surfeit of position players at positions where Moncada might play, with Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rusney Castillo all under contract for at least the next four years, but signing Moncada gives them both depth (in case, say, Castillo doesn't pan out as expected) and extra flexibility to use one of those players to make a trade (e.g., using Betts or Bogaerts to get Cole Hamels). Hanley and/or Pablo could age poorly, or become more injury-prone as they age; perhaps Moncada handles third base in a year or two and pushes Sandoval over to first base – although he might need a crane to do it. The deal also keeps Moncada away from Boston's direct rivals in the Bronx, where Moncada would have been the likely second baseman of the future, perhaps pushing the Yankees to make a deal with 29-year-old Hector Olivera or 21-year-old Andy Ibanez to fill that spot for the next five years. The Yankees don't have a long-term second-base solution in the minors, and their third-base prospects all appear to be over a year away with the risk associated with players who have that much development ahead of them, so Moncada would have been a perfect fit based on organizational need as well as the obvious benefit to signing a player of this caliber.
The Moncada contract and the expected deals for Ibanez and right-handed pitcher Yadier Alvarez will result in significant changes to how the next CBA addresses international free agents, as teams have chosen to ignore the limits placed on their spending by the bonus pools system in the current CBA (designed to deal with 16-year-old players from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, not 18-21 year old Cuban professionals). The Red Sox won't be able to sign any international amateur free agent until the 2017-18 cycle, and had to pay a 100% tax on the bonus they gave Moncada, all penalties for exceeding their bonus allotment, to which Boston appears to have responded, “Feh, it's only money.”
If you thought MLB might ease up on its push for an international draft, this contract should dispel those delusions. Any system that allows the free flow of money from owners to players is a target for MLB in labor negotiations, and you can bet they'll try to stanch this particular torrent by rolling Cuban amateurs into either a new international draft that covers all so-called “July 2nd” players or into a single worldwide draft that includes all amateur players regardless of their nations of origin.
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"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
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