SoMnFan
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One thing most serious baseball fans share is a fascination of the future. We pour over lists of prospects in large part because we like to sneak a peek into the crystal ball. When was the last time you eagerly opened up a list of Top 100 35-year-olds?
Every team seeks to develop that young ace starter to form the backbone of their rotation for the next decade or so. While you can shell out $200 million and bring in a Max Scherzer or a David Price, only a handful of teams make bets that expensive. Developing a young pitcher is something all 30 teams can do.
Here are my picks for the 25 best starting pitchers under 25 years old. This isn't a strict statistical ranking, though projections are going to be a part of how I consider a player. After all, projections are derived primarily from how a pitcher performs and how a pitcher performs is quite relevant. But not everything. To qualify for this list, a pitcher had to be 24 years old or younger as of July 1st, 2015 (ages are listed in parenthesis below).
25. LHP Andrew Heaney (24), Los Angeles Angels
In a year in which it looked like most of the impact rookies that would be up all season were in the National League, Heaney was my sleeper pick to win the AL Rookie of the Year back in March. I expected Heaney to be a solid No. 4 starter for the Angels, lead AL rookie pitchers in wins, and possibly edge out a fairly weak crop. Instead, he bombed in spring training and has yet to pitch in the majors this year. While Heaney doesn't have high upside, I expect him to be a mid-rotation starter for a long time, which does have tremendous value.
24. RHP Braden Shipley (23), Arizona Diamondbacks
A young pitcher that can hit the mid-90s yet is MLB-ready at changing speeds? Sign me up. If Shipley's curveball was as consistent, he would've passed Archie Bradley on my list. But it remains a work in progress and his Double-A stint has been extremely disappointing so far. He still makes my top 25 though.
23. RHP Archie Bradley (22), Arizona Diamondbacks
One of the most talented pitching prospects in the game, we keep waiting him to have better command and shed that extra walk or two a game. That still hasn't happened and with his results becoming middling in the upper minors, he's going to need to start turning out some improvement to move up my list.
22. RHP Aaron Sanchez (22), Toronto Blue Jays
Five years out from high school now, Sanchez still remains a work in progress. All of Sanchez's pitches share the same filthy, late movement, and he's already a favorite of those making baseball GIFs. But his command over his pitches remains sporadic and unless you're facing a lineup of full of Jeff Francoeurs due to a mad scientific experiment in human cloning, that's an issue of real concern. Still, Sanchez's upside is crazy.
21. RHP Jonathan Gray (23), Colorado Rockies
While I'm a fan of Gray, he's taken some lumps this season in Triple-A. While one shouldn't panic at inflated ERAs in the Pacific Coast League (the land that the offensive decline forgot), the continued decline of his strikeout rate is extremely concerning.
20. RHP Tyler Glasnow (21), Pittsburgh Pirates
Glasnow's change is still developing, but his fastball-curve combo is dynamite. He also had one of the best ZiPS translations for a minor league pitching prospect in 2014, behind only Julio Urias among pitchers in the low minors. The Pirates aren't going to just throw him in the rotation this year, but I think he'll be in the rotation fairly quickly in 2016.
19. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (22), Boston Red Sox
Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA in four starts with the Red Sox. AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
The Toronto Blue Jays ruined the party a bit, bringing Rodriguez down to earth in his fourth MLB start. But he's not a fluke and that Blue Jay lineup has a tendency to spoil parties, so he should bounce back nicely. Rodriguez has upped his velocity in the last year-plus and now looks like one of baseball's most interesting young power lefties.
18. LHP Steven Matz (24), New York Mets
One of the ZiPS' favorites -- and one of mine -- the less-heralded Matz is starting to get a lot more attention, even upping his strikeout rate in his first go-around in AAA from his breakout (and healthy) 2014 season. While Dillon Gee's pitching ultimately made him expendable, the opportunity to possibly give Matz a shot in the majors certainly hastened that process. Yes, I'm placing Matz above Bradley.
17. LHP Alex Wood (24), Atlanta Braves
Completely unheralded in the minors despite his second-round draft status, Wood forced his way into the Braves' plans with eye-popping results in the minors, compiling a 1.68 ERA in 26 starts. While he's looked sharper lately after an up-and-down start to the season, a soft tosser like Wood does have a smaller margin for error and the 30 percent drop in his strikeout rate is a concern. Wood also seems to always be a bad month from the Braves deciding he'll be more durable in the bullpen.
16. LHP Daniel Norris (22), Toronto Blue Jays
Norris had mixed results in his brief stint in the majors to start the season, but he just turned 22 and only has a couple dozen starts above high A-ball. It's hard to ignore a guy who strikeouts 82 batters in his first 12 Triple-A starts. Plus, as has been well documented, he enjoys living a van, which is kinda cool. (http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12420393/top-blue-jays-prospect-daniel-norris-lives-own-code)
15. RHP Lance McCullers (21), Houston Astros
That fact that he's the son of Lance McCullers, who most notably pitched for the Padres in the mid-1980s, really makes me feel a bit old. The questions surrounding McCullers coming into the season involved his control and his durability, and he's mostly answered both of those this year. He's gone from walking more than five batters a game in high-A last season to 2.5 so far this year in the majors. After only throwing six innings in a game once last year, he's done it in half his major league starts, including a complete game against the Orioles. Like Dellin Betances last year, ignore the computer projections.
14. RHP Lucas Giolito (20), Washington Nationals
Lucas Giolito was picked No. 16 overall by the Nationals in the 2012 draft. Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
Is it crazy to put a pitcher in Class A this high? Perhaps, but do you know what else is crazy? A pitcher with a mid-90s fastball, a wicked curve and a walk rate under two batters a game at age 20. I think he'd fare decently in the major leagues right now, though Washington is smartly not going to chance that. If it wasn't that last bit of uncertainty given his Class A status, he'd vault even higher on this list.
13. LHP Carlos Rodon (22), Chicago White Sox
OK, he's walking too many batters in the majors so far, but for a pitcher with only 34 1/3 innings of minor league play, he's holding his own. U.S. Cellular Field is a tough environment for a young pitcher, yet he still hasn't allowed a home run there yet. If he can get his changeup working, he'll be a special pitcher, but even what he is right now isn't all that bad.
12. RHP Kevin Gausman (24), Baltimore Orioles
Not a lot of starting pitchers can hit triple digits with their fastball, even in an age in which big heat is everywhere. Gausman also had a 3.41 FIP and a 3.57 ERA for the O's in 20 starts last season, though from the way the Orioles have treated him, you'd think that they were unaware of any of these facts. I'm from Baltimore, but hopefully this isn't just from me bleeding black-and-orange. Especially as that would indicate some kind of very dangerous hematological disorder.
11. RHP Julio Teheran (24), Atlanta Braves
If this list was written before the start of the season, he would have been in the top 5. I'm not going to throw in the towel for a pitcher who was as good as Tehran was in 2013-2014, but even his good starts this season have looked curiously mediocre.
10. RHP Noah Syndergaard (22), New York Mets
Strangely late in the season, the Mets have finally fully realized that "Thor" is one of their five best starting pitchers. In seven MLB starts, Syndergaard has struck out almost 10 batters a game and put up a 2.91 FIP. And most importantly, he doesn't need Tommy John surgery, which seems to be a popular thing for young Mets pitchers.
9. RHP Trevor Bauer (24), Cleveland Indians
Can we officially call this reclamation projection successful now? Most raw pitching prospects that need to shed a walk or two a game never actually accomplish this. As recently as 2013, Bauer looked like he was destined to be one of those pitchers, backtracking for the Indians in Triple-A Columbus. But he's turned it around since then, and while he'll likely always walk four batters a game or so, as long as he keeps striking out a batter an inning and keeps the ball in the park, that's not fatal. It's not as if Bauer's 3.22 ERA this year is the product of the Indians giving him defensive support.
8. RHP Marcus Stroman (24), Toronto Blue Jays
Given that Stroman's out with a torn ACL rather than some nasty arm-related reason, I'm not inclined to push him any lower than this in the rankings. His 2014 wasn't a mirage -- his already respectable 3.65 ERA was bested handily by his 2.84 FIP.
7. RHP Yordano Ventura (24), Kansas City Royals
Maybe it's the sunny optimism I'm known for, but despite his bumps and bruises this season, I'm still on Team Yordano. I swear, I once saw Ventura throw a fastball that landed in the catcher's mitt before he threw it. He's got the stuff, but he's just not putting away batters -- and at times is doing a better job losing his temper than getting strike three.
6. LHP Julio Urias (18), Los Angeles Dodgers
I'm tempted to place Urias even higher, as the last pitcher to dominate the low minors as thoroughly as Urias has was Dwight Gooden more than 30 years ago. He's continued his domination this season, striking out more than 11 batters a game for Double-A Tulsa. At E-I-G-H-T-E-E-N. Unreal. He could still be pitching in the majors in 2040!
5. RHP Carlos Martinez (23), St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Martinez is 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA this season. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
A pitcher without a set role, injuries finally put Martinez in the Cardinals' rotation full-time. His performance is keeping him there now. Kicking up his strikeout rate by 10 percent despite moving from the bullpen, Martinez's change is finally clicking at the major-league level and it gives him a high spot on my Top 25.
4. RHP Shelby Miller (24), Atlanta Braves
While the trade that sent Jason Heyward to St. Louis and Miller to Atlanta made sense for both sides at the time, only the Braves have really seen a benefit from it this season. Without a deep repertoire of pitches, Miller's finally learned to make up for it by dialing the heat back and making his two-seamer/sinker an important part of his game. He's not going to put up lofty strikeout totals or maintain a 2.02 ERA, but there's no reason he can't be a 125-130 ERA+ pitcher for the next decade.
3. RHP Michael Wacha (23), St. Louis Cardinals
Wacha's strikeout rate hasn't recovered to his rookie level, but his shoulder appears fully healthy and there are no concerns about his velocity. His strikeout rate should increase a bit, to the 7.5 per nine innings range, but the Wacha of 2015 is a more well-rounded pitcher than the 2013 rookie phenom. He knows how to work in his cutter effectively and gets results.
2. RHP Jose Fernandez (22), Miami Marlins
Yes, he's still recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his recovery has gone smoothly and he's scheduled to return to the majors very soon. Placing a pitcher coming off elbow surgery at No. 2? Go back and watch him humiliate National League hitters at age 20. Even Fernandez at 85 percent of his previous level is crazy-good.
1. RHP Gerrit Cole (24), Pittsburgh Pirates
Cole finally has made that transition from a heralded young pitcher to a serious Cy Young candidate. He leads the National League in wins and ERA, and has bumped up his strikeout rate up to 10 batters a game. He was one of the reasons the Pirates stayed in the race when their offense forgot how to hit baseballs in April. Cole's not Roger Clemens, but as the best big, young, power pitcher in baseball, he's putting up a pretty good impersonation.
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