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Some Olney Insider stuff on Scherzer.
LOS ANGELES -- A longtime general manager once challenged some of the numbers presented to him by a statistical analyst in his front office. “Don’t tell me what happened, because I can figure that part out,” he told him. “Tell me what’s going to happen, because if you can do that, then we’re really onto something.”
But the GM said this knowing that he was asking for the impossible, because despite all of the formulas that have helped to improve baseball analysis since the days Bill James started publishing his handbooks, none of them can account for change -- the adjustments that players make mentally and physically, season to season, game to game, at-bat to at-bat, pitch to pitch.
Somebody finds a new pitch, a new angle, a more comfortable hitting position, a new methodology at the plate, and a lot of the numbers that a given player has accumulated up until that moment become obsolete.
Max Scherzer had a great arm at the University of Missouri, but his mechanics -- including a violent jerk of his head as he released the pitch -- scared some teams away, and may have even been a factor in the decision by the team that drafted him in 2006, the Diamondbacks, to deal him to Detroit. After his first four seasons in the big leagues, Scherzer was still something of a mystery; he would follow great starts with poor outings.
But Scherzer was devoted to making himself better. He changed his delivery, and learned to use statistical analysis in his game preparation, and in a bullpen session in the summer of 2012, he tried a curveball. As it turned out, this was like unlocking his key to dominance, because with a full repertoire -- including a curveball that he would use for a change of pace, and to get ahead in the count -- he went from promising to almost perfect, as he demonstrated in Saturday's no-hitter against the Pirates. He came so close, James Wagner writes.
Change is not restricted to players who want to go from good to great. Buster Posey has been an All-Star catcher and an MVP for a team that has won three championships in the past five years. But this year, he has made a notable alteration, which has seemingly put him in position to put the ball in play more often.
Three years ago, Posey was among the more patient hitters in the game, going deep into the count consistently. But that has changed.
A less patient Posey
Buster Posey's pitches per plate appearance
Year
Pitches
2012 4.26
2013 4.04
2014 3.84
2015 3.58
It appears Posey -- like Matt Carpenter and Mike Trout -- is hunting fastballs more often this year, and his contact rate has increased. His strikeout rate of 8.8 percent is the lowest of his career, far lower than any of the projection systems pegged him.
When Tim Lincecum signed a two-year, $35 million deal with the Giants after the 2013 season, folks with other teams were shocked at San Francisco’s level of investment because he had been trending in the wrong direction for several years, his fastball velocity sliding backward at an alarming rate.
The Giants’ offer to Lincecum was based partly on his history with the team and his popularity, but as it has turned out, Lincecum has been better than expected, because even in the face of an almost unprecedented drop in velocity, he has been able to adapt. Lincecum -- whose Giants look to close out a weekend series sweep against the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball -- is working with a fastball that averages 87.6 mph, much slower than the 94 mph he averaged in 2008.
But through the use of a changeup, which he throws more often than all but nine pitchers in the game, he has managed to remain effective. After finishing 2014 poorly, Lincecum is 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 starts this season, numbers that are much better than the ugliness that was predicted for him.
We can guess, but we’ll never know for sure what will come next, because we will never been able to account for all that drives each player, what makes them think, what makes them change.
From ESPN Stats and Information, how Scherzer threw his no-hitter against Pittsburgh:
A. He was a control freak. He threw a strike on 77.4 percent of his pitches, the second-highest rate in any start in his career (and highest since 2009). He threw 22 first-pitch strikes, tied for third most this season; batters were 0-for-17 with no hard-hit balls and six strikeouts after falling behind 0-1 (they were 0-for-4 on first pitches; the HBP in the ninth started with an 0-1 count as well).
B. He threw a season-high 53.8 percent of his pitches in the upper half of the zone or higher (the Pirates entered the game with the fourth-highest batting average in the NL vs. pitches in the upper half).
C. His slider was unhittable. In his past two starts, opponents are 0-for-21 with 13 K's vs. Scherzer's slider. He had 14 K's with his slider in his previous seven starts this year.
From ESPN Stats and Information: Scherzer posted a game score of 97 in his no-hitter after putting up a 100 in his previous start.
He's the only pitcher in the live ball era (since 1920) with a game score of at least 97 in back-to-back starts.
Scherzer's near-perfect no-no
No-hitters in which one batter reached base -- via HBP
Year
Pitcher
Team
2015 Max Scherzer Nationals
1997 Kevin Brown Marlins
1960 Lew Burdette Braves
1908 Hooks Wiltse Giants
Scherzer is the fourth pitcher in major league history to throw a no-hitter in which the only batter to reach base was hit by a pitch.
Scherzer made history, writes Thom Loverro. Scherzer’s parents were on hand to watch the game.
Jose Tabata was just trying to get a good pitch to hit, he explained after the game.
The notion that Tabata had some mad, diabolical plan to end Scherzer’s perfection by sticking his elbow into the path of the ball could not be more ridiculous. He could not have possibly planned this; it’s a reflex, a physical response to a pitch that was close to his body, and yes, he appeared to lean into the pitch. But that’s in keeping with his devotion to finding a way to get on base.
From James Wagner’s story:
The errant slider to Tabata made Scherzer the first pitcher to lose a perfect game with a hit-by-pitch with two outs in the ninth inning since Hooks Wiltse in 1908. The Nationals did not argue the call. Manager Matt Williams said he didn’t consider stepping out of the dugout to talk to home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski because he didn’t want to mess with Scherzer’s rhythm. “That’d be a crying shame,” he said.
[Nationals catcher Wilson] Ramos said Tabata’s elbow was in the strike zone. Watching from right field, [Bryce] Harper crouched down into a squat: “I wanted to cry,” he said.
“It got me in the elbow, the protector elbow,” Tabata said. “He try to throw me like a slider something inside, but the slider no breaking, so it stay in, right there, he got me.”
Scherzer blamed no one but himself for the pitch. He had Tabata backed into a corner with two strikes, but Tabata fouled off five pitches in the at-bat.
“Just didn’t finish the pitch,” Scherzer said. “Backed up on me and clipped him. It’s just one of those things that happened. Just focus on what you can do next.”
Tabata battled, Scherzer said.
The Internet is now mad at Tabata because of what happened. You need to appreciate the performance, says Pirates manager Clint Hurdle.
_____________________________
Work like a Captain.
Play like a Pirate.
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