SoMnFan
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Dan Szymborski, ESPN Insider
While the more sepia-toned descriptions of baseball as a sport tend to involve apple pies, mom, peanuts and Cracker Jack, cornfield ghosts and bald eagles gliding to catch a trout, baseball is, in fact, a business. And a pretty good one, with around $9 billion in revenue in 2014. Given that players earn a lot of that money -- which makes sense considering we pay to watch Giancarlo Stanton hit a baseball rather than see Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria sign a check -- very few discussions of player value are completely independent from any salary consideration. Baseball salaries catch headlines, and nine-digit contracts have the potential to bring in serious wins for a franchise in the right condition. As anyone who follows baseball knows, a number of these contracts turn out quite terribly, with results ranging from a distraction at best to something that hamstrings the team for years in the worst-case scenario.
Every year, we catch up on the worst contracts remaining in baseball with the computerized assistance of the ZiPS projection system -- here is last year's list -- and it's time for an update. Below are the 10 worst contracts based on the difference between dollars remaining in the contract and the estimated dollar value of projected performance remaining (assuming $6.6 million for 2016 with 5 percent growth a year afterward).
Two notable mainstays of our worst contract list have disappeared from the top 10. Ryan Howard, the patron saint of bad signings, is down to about $43 million remaining on his deal, and, although the Phillies are still projected to get just about nothing in return for their money, $43 million in the red is enough to drop him out of the top 10. Another perennial bad contract, Alex Rodriguez's deal that started out at 10 years and $275 million in 2008, is down to about $47 million remaining, and thanks to A-Rod being back, healthy and actually playing good baseball, that deal is no longer a giant future issue.
But enough on who didn't make the list; let's get down to who did.
1. Albert Pujols, 1B
Los Angeles Angels
minus-$109 million
Yes, Prince Albert returned to the All-Star Game this year for the first time since 2010 and has a good shot at hitting 40 home runs. But he has continued his transition from one of the most dynamic hitters of his generation to a one-dimensional home run hitter as he travels through his mid-30s. His current .255 batting average is 73 points below what his pre-Los Angeles career number was, and his .318 on-base percentage is appallingly low for a player who once posted eight consecutive .400 OBP seasons. Also, he no longer provides that extra hit of value from his first-base defense ... and he's signed for a long time (through the 2021 season).
2. Matt Kemp, OF
San Diego Padres
minus-$85 million
How bad has Kemp's 2015 season been? I slammed the trade quite hard from the Padres' point of view , and he still has managed to be a good deal worse than I expected. Struggling all season to keep his OPS above the .700 mark, Kemp has an uphill struggle to reach 20 homers this season. And the power hitting is supposed to be his bread and butter; it's certainly not his middling plate discipline or clumsy defensive play. Kemp might still have some value, but it's going to be for a team that can use a DH and plays in a homer-friendly park. Only good news for the Padres: The Dodgers made them pay most of Kemp's contract, but not all of it.
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Detroit Tigers
minus-$84 million
Cabrera remains one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball when healthy, a far better player than anybody else on this list. However, even a great player can come at too high a price. Cabrera's eight-year, $248 million contract doesn't even start until next season, as the Tigers bewilderingly broke the bank two years early without any actual benefit in doing so by extending Cabrera before the 2014 season. You can pile up all of Cabrera's accolades in recent years, but remember, the Tigers aren't paying for any of those in this new contract. Breaking the bank on a player who starts a contract at 33 years old is just courting disaster.
4. Shin-Soo Choo, OF
Texas Rangers
minus-$84 million
A clear overpay for the Rangers before the 2014 season, Choo's 2015 bounce-back season is purely of the "meh" variety. Turning 34 around next year's All-Star Game, Choo still has five years remaining in a contract during which ZiPS never projects him to be worth two WAR again.
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
Seattle Mariners
minus-$79 million
With Cano signed to a 10-year deal before the 2014 season, it was always likely that he would see some serious decline before the end of his decade in Seattle. ZiPS was cautiously optimistic about Cano at the time, seeing him as able to hold off said serious decline until Year 5 or 6. Showing a serious decline in Year 2, especially in terms of fundamental plate discipline, makes the contract a much riskier proposition, and, although he has been hot lately (.995 OPS since the All-Star break), there are still serious concerns after what was easily his worst three-month stretch as a major leaguer.
6. Prince Fielder, 1B
Texas Rangers
minus-$77 million
Fielder topped last year's worst-contracts list, so him placing only sixth this time around is pretty good news for fans of the burly slugger. His .327/.394/.499 slash line and excellent health this season bode well, but, even with the short-term concern about Fielder largely dispelled, the longer-term issues remain. Fielder remains a player on the wrong side of 30 with an "old-player" skill set that typically doesn't age well, and he's still owed $120 million after this season. Also, he'll be hard-pressed to maintain a .340 BABIP that's 30-40 points better than his Brewers-era prime.
7. Justin Verlander, SP
Detroit Tigers
minus-$71 million
We finally got a pitcher! Although pitchers are riskier than batters because of injury concerns, the fact that it took this far until we saw a pitcher suggests that teams are doing a good job factoring that increased injury risk into their pricing. It's becoming increasingly unlikely that we'll ever get the Cy Young-type Justin Verlander back, and his injuries in the past six months make the proposition that he can at least eat innings for the Tigers even riskier.
8. CC Sabathia, SP
New York Yankees
minus-$54 million
The bad news: ZiPS doesn't see any significant positive contribution from Sabathia as likely going forward. The good news: Sabathia is signed for only one more year, with a vesting option for 2017. If Sabathia has a left shoulder injury in 2016, the Yankees have a shot at wiggling out of another $20 million ($25 million vesting option, $5 million buyout otherwise). At one point, ZiPS saw Sabathia as baseball's best hope for the next 300-game winner. Now it's projecting him to not even reach 250.
9. Joe Mauer, 1B
Minnesota Twins
minus-$51 million
Moving Mauer from behind the plate to first base was supposed to keep him healthy; unfortunately for the Twins, his offense didn't come with him. Although being a poor man's John Olerud isn't the worst thing in the world, at $23 million a year, he's being paid like a rich man's Olerud. Mauer is only a stopgap first baseman at this point, but, with only three years left of his eight-year deal, at least the end of his disappointing contract can be seen on the horizon.
10. Elvis Andrus, SS
Texas Rangers
minus-$51 million
Most of the worst contracts share a few notable similarities, and here are two biggies: (1) They tend to be given out with too heavy an emphasis on past performance; and (2) There is poor evaluation of how aging players typically decline. Andrus' contract is the odd one of the bunch, signed in April 2013 when Andrus was only 24. I won't lie, I thought this was a reasonable deal at the time, as Andrus had just finished an age-23 season in which he displayed continued offensive development (his 94 OPS+ was his career best) and appeared to have one of the best gloves at shortstop in the AL. Instead, Andrus' game has regressed considerably, long before age-related decline should even be an issue, and that regression has been in every aspect of his game. A top SS glove with a 90 OPS+ is a good player, but a below-average SS glove with an 80 OPS+ is a disappointing one. Andrus' case isn't hopeless and he's making "only" $15 million per year, but, with seven years remaining, this one is not looking good.
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