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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season

 
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 12:38:13 PM   
Jeff Jesser


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I hate Sherman but he does make a lot of good points. 
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 12:52:21 PM   
John Childress


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Why do you hate him?

Because of what he said about Crabtree?

He is very intelligent
He is very good

He is a late round draft pick who kept working until he was the best at his position

Sounds like a classic American story

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 4:47:30 PM   
Bill Jandro

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Interesting Bill. That's always seemed like a plausible explanation to me too; that the inspection was off in the first place, not the Patriots' handling of them. Unless they take all the balls back to the lockerroom or something after the inspection and before warmups, where do they tamper with them where no one would notice?

Did he say if the inspection is done in the open? On the sideline or near the field?


Its done in their locker room. However, the officials then escort the ball boy out to the field with the footballs. So any tampering post inspection would be out in the open subject to camera men and media people whom roam sidelines before games getting quick interviews.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 4:54:10 PM   
Bill Jandro

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

I know what you mean about the sophomoric thing. You can tell that news and sports people are being very careful to say "footballs" instead of just "balls" when talking about this.

I understood that there was a more formal examination ahead of time, with the footballs being weighed and the psi measured - not just feeling them. And later, when they were all examined again, it was only the Patriots footballs that had changed.

I wouldn't have a problem with someone from the league as opposed to a home team employee being responsible from this point forward for all of the handling of the footballs. That would prevent anything like this from happening again.

In the meantime, rules were broken and a punishment of some kind is in order.


I think it boils down to how thorogh of an inspection took place pregame.

The official might say they used gauges and scales but according to that Bear's ball boy they never once used any instruments just handled them and that was it. So its possible they were under the legal PSI when inspected.

The ball boy also pointed out that they weren't suppose to scuff balls or put them in the dryer but did routinely. He said we were always pushing the envelope.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 5:31:02 PM   
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeff Jesser

I hate Sherman but he does make a lot of good points. 


A good hat will cover them.
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 5:44:55 PM   
Jeff Jesser


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JC- couldn't quote your post for some reason.


I agree, he is intelligent, very good ect.

I think my dislike for him is 2 fold:

1.  He's a Seahawk and I can't stand that team (Pete C effect??)
2.  I don't like guys that squawk like that so much.  I prefer the guys like Barry who just did it. 

It really has nothing to do with Crabtree.  I think Sherman was dead on with that one.  Crabtree is a bum. 
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 8:28:42 PM   
djskillz


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Bill, great stuff.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/24/2015 8:47:42 PM   
Daniel Lee Young

 

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http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/1/19/7853033/patriots-deflated-balls-PROOF#ooid=ByZGN3cjpYknVEm8d9orHtEapO2wYDib

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/25/2015 10:14:05 PM   
hagar

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

“They were trying to suspend Marshawn for gold shoes and that [deflating the ball] really affects the game,” Sherman said, according to the Boston Globe. “You suspend Marshawn for gold shoes, then you’ve got balls being deflated and that’s the issue.”

Sherman has a history of calling out what he sees as NFL hypocrisy. Late last year, Sherman held a press conference alongside a cardboard cutout of teammate Doug Baldwin -- Baldwin hid behind the podium for some reason -- in which the duo criticized the league’s requirement that players talk to the media but make sure to wear the appropriate headphones when they do. (The league bans players from wearing Beats by Dre headphones on camera immediately before and after a game.)

The duo also pointed out at the time that the league says it worries about player safety, but sometimes makes teams play two games in five days.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/22/richard-sherman-deflategate_n_6523248.html

Seriously John, do you expect me to believe that the color of a players shoes doesn't or can't affect the outcome of a game? I know for a fact that the color of my cleats made me a better player than many others on the field. Apparently I picked the wrong color too many times.
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/26/2015 9:17:13 AM   
DavidAOlson

 

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Maybe the Patriot ball-inflation scandal is a bigger deal than I thought:

quote:

The New England Patriots have a suspiciously low fumble rate

... NFL analyst William Sharp found that, since 2010, the Patriots have fumbled dramatically less often than any other team that plays home games outside. And both Sharp and the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino looked at players who played for both the Patriots and another team between 2007 and 2014. Those players fumbled 46 percent less often when they were with New England.


http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7906127/patriots-deflate-fumble-stats

Can someone estimate how many wins are added by cutting your fumble rate in half?

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/26/2015 10:16:07 AM  1 votes
Trekgeekscott


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

Maybe the Patriot ball-inflation scandal is a bigger deal than I thought:

quote:

The New England Patriots have a suspiciously low fumble rate

... NFL analyst William Sharp found that, since 2010, the Patriots have fumbled dramatically less often than any other team that plays home games outside. And both Sharp and the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino looked at players who played for both the Patriots and another team between 2007 and 2014. Those players fumbled 46 percent less often when they were with New England.


http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7906127/patriots-deflate-fumble-stats

Can someone estimate how many wins are added by cutting your fumble rate in half?


that couldn't have anything to do with having a coach that might say something like, "if you fumble, your ass is toast." ?

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/26/2015 10:56:16 AM   
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

Maybe the Patriot ball-inflation scandal is a bigger deal than I thought:

quote:

The New England Patriots have a suspiciously low fumble rate

... NFL analyst William Sharp found that, since 2010, the Patriots have fumbled dramatically less often than any other team that plays home games outside. And both Sharp and the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino looked at players who played for both the Patriots and another team between 2007 and 2014. Those players fumbled 46 percent less often when they were with New England.


http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7906127/patriots-deflate-fumble-stats

Can someone estimate how many wins are added by cutting your fumble rate in half?


that couldn't have anything to do with having a coach that might say something like, "if you fumble, your ass is toast." ?


It could. But I'm not sure fear alone is enough to just make people stop fumbling. Or explain why there rates would go up after leaving NE. You'd think if they learned better ball protection, they wouldn't forget it.

I don't think there is any way to argue that a less inflated ball is much easier to hold tight.
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/26/2015 11:26:55 AM   
djskillz


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Sure. But based on the information we have on the procedures/timeline from inspection to game time, do we really believe this has gone on for 8 years undetected? I find that incredibly hard to believe.

Perhaps it has something to do with Belichek's practice routine that he laid out, where they have to play with terrible footballs in practice constantly during the week and then are more adjusted for the game.

Not ruling out anything, but I still feel in the end it's a stupid rule. Let teams play with whatever "style" balls they want (scuffed, heated, overinflated, underinflated). To me you can't pick and choose preferences for them.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/26/2015 11:02:25 PM   
djskillz


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It's just getting funnier and funnier:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/26/video-shows-employee-taking-24-balls-into-bathroom/

Seriously, NFL, just apologize to the Patriots for this witch-hunt and move along.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 3:54:05 AM   
JT2

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

Maybe the Patriot ball-inflation scandal is a bigger deal than I thought:

quote:

The New England Patriots have a suspiciously low fumble rate

... NFL analyst William Sharp found that, since 2010, the Patriots have fumbled dramatically less often than any other team that plays home games outside. And both Sharp and the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino looked at players who played for both the Patriots and another team between 2007 and 2014. Those players fumbled 46 percent less often when they were with New England.


http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7906127/patriots-deflate-fumble-stats

Can someone estimate how many wins are added by cutting your fumble rate in half?



Horribly flawed attempt at meaningful analysis.

Seriously, offensive plays per fumble? I'm a little surprised you posted something like that.

Perhaps these data experts are not aware of the fact that a fumble is not even possible on a significant percentage of plays.

Over that five year span referenced in that crackpot piece, over 1000 Patriot plays resulted in incompletions. A play impossible to have fumbled. How many more were TD's caught in the endzone? Another play impossible to have fumbled.

I guess everybody thinks they cracked the code. That particular effort was very weak.
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 7:25:48 AM   
Bill Jandro

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

It's just getting funnier and funnier:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/26/video-shows-employee-taking-24-balls-into-bathroom/

Seriously, NFL, just apologize to the Patriots for this witch-hunt and move along.


What a crock. They're only given 12 game balls per NFL

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 8:11:24 AM   
Todd M

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

Maybe the Patriot ball-inflation scandal is a bigger deal than I thought:

quote:

The New England Patriots have a suspiciously low fumble rate

... NFL analyst William Sharp found that, since 2010, the Patriots have fumbled dramatically less often than any other team that plays home games outside. And both Sharp and the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino looked at players who played for both the Patriots and another team between 2007 and 2014. Those players fumbled 46 percent less often when they were with New England.


http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7906127/patriots-deflate-fumble-stats

Can someone estimate how many wins are added by cutting your fumble rate in half?



Horribly flawed attempt at meaningful analysis.

Seriously, offensive plays per fumble? I'm a little surprised you posted something like that.

Perhaps these data experts are not aware of the fact that a fumble is not even possible on a significant percentage of plays.

Over that five year span referenced in that crackpot piece, over 1000 Patriot plays resulted in incompletions. A play impossible to have fumbled. How many more were TD's caught in the endzone? Another play impossible to have fumbled.

I guess everybody thinks they cracked the code. That particular effort was very weak.


Perhaps the data experts were aware that virtually every offensive play has a QB/center exchange meaning virtually every play leads to a chance to fumble.

True for all teams across the board equally. You don't think fumbled snaps were removed from the analysis do you?

It's fair to look at every play.

Also, I don't know where NE ranks in pass vs run plays but Brady is one of the more accurate QB's over that time I'd imagine so is 1000 incompletions high or low compared to other teams?
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 8:30:25 AM   
djskillz


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What about the fact that the "study" completely took out Dome teams' fumble rates? They just don't count?

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 8:50:29 AM   
Todd M

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

What about the fact that the "study" completely took out Dome teams' fumble rates? They just don't count?


They didn't dismiss it completely.


quote:

Apart from the Patriots, the other three teams in the top four (for lowest fumble rate) since 2010 all play inside. And only one team — the Atlanta Falcons — has a lower fumble rate overall in the time period.
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 11:11:58 AM   
JT2

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

Maybe the Patriot ball-inflation scandal is a bigger deal than I thought:

quote:

The New England Patriots have a suspiciously low fumble rate

... NFL analyst William Sharp found that, since 2010, the Patriots have fumbled dramatically less often than any other team that plays home games outside. And both Sharp and the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino looked at players who played for both the Patriots and another team between 2007 and 2014. Those players fumbled 46 percent less often when they were with New England.


http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7906127/patriots-deflate-fumble-stats

Can someone estimate how many wins are added by cutting your fumble rate in half?



Horribly flawed attempt at meaningful analysis.

Seriously, offensive plays per fumble? I'm a little surprised you posted something like that.

Perhaps these data experts are not aware of the fact that a fumble is not even possible on a significant percentage of plays.

Over that five year span referenced in that crackpot piece, over 1000 Patriot plays resulted in incompletions. A play impossible to have fumbled. How many more were TD's caught in the endzone? Another play impossible to have fumbled.

I guess everybody thinks they cracked the code. That particular effort was very weak.


Perhaps the data experts were aware that virtually every offensive play has a QB/center exchange meaning virtually every play leads to a chance to fumble.

True for all teams across the board equally. You don't think fumbled snaps were removed from the analysis do you?

It's fair to look at every play.

Also, I don't know where NE ranks in pass vs run plays but Brady is one of the more accurate QB's over that time I'd imagine so is 1000 incompletions high or low compared to other teams?



Yet, oddly absent in that article is any data on Center/QB exchange fumbles. In fact, no data at all on Brady's fumbles.
Brady is the alleged mastermind behind this, yet no specific data on his fumble rate.
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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 11:16:50 AM   
djskillz


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Yep. The witch-hunt continues.

Just admit that they've dominated you for 15 years, other teams, and move on.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 11:22:33 AM   
SoMnFan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Yep. The witch-hunt continues.

Just admit that they've dominated you for 15 years, other teams, and move on.

That's too hard for some.
Johnny needs an excuse.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 2:16:27 PM   
El Duderino


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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

What about the fact that the "study" completely took out Dome teams' fumble rates? They just don't count?


The biggest problem is that the numbers are presented upside down. You need to look at fumbles per play, not plays for fumble. The reason is that there is no effective maximum number of plays you can have per fumble, but there is an effective maximum number of fumbles you can have per play. (Yes, it is technically possible to fumble more than once per play, but that is such a rare occurrence that it really doesn't affect the numbers.) Consequently, the variance from mean gets larger in a non-linear manner.

For example, in a 1000 play season, 25 fumbles means you fumbled once every 40 plays. 20 fumbles means you fumbled every 50 plays, a difference of 10. However, 15 fumbles means one every 67 plays, a difference of 17, and 10 fumbles means one every 100 plays, a difference of 33 - twice as much as the previous gap.

When you look at fumble rate (fumbles per play), the numbers are comparable regardless of where a team is on the curve - A difference of 0.1% in fumbles per play translates to basically 1 more fumble per season whether the team is really good, like New England, or really bad, like Saint Louis.

So, by that measure, New England is still on the high end, but not what could be classified as an outlier. They do indeed have the lowest fumble rate over the last 8 years, but they haven't led the league in fumble rate for a single season since 2010. In fact, Minnesota had a lower fumble rate than the Patriots did this season, at 1.1% vs 1.2%. The biggest outlier season looks to me to be New Orleans in 2011, when they had a rate of 0.5% - more than 0.4% lower than New England's best season of 0.9% back in 2010. Looking at rolling averages, if you shorten the horizon to the last four years, both New Orleans and Atlanta have lower fumble rates (1.2% and 1.3% vs 1.4%), while Green Bay and Baltimore, both outdoors teams, were in the same ballpark at 1.7%.

What jumps out at me is that whatever the impact of a lost PSI might be, it's less than the impact of pure chance, and a hell of a lot less than the impact of having a pass-heavy offense with a QB who likes to get the ball out quickly - something common to the teams that do well by this metric.

Note: I only ran the numbers for seven teams: Baltimore, Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, Minnesota, Saint Louis, and Atlanta. And I can't seem to find numbers for special teams fumbles, which I would remove from my analysis if possible due to the fact that different balls are used on special teams plays. Make what you will of those limitations.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 2:24:37 PM   
djskillz


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Good stuff, Dude. And again, there are so many variables that go into these things.

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RE: Around the NFL (News) - 2013 Season - 1/27/2015 5:05:07 PM   
John Childress


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

Maybe the Patriot ball-inflation scandal is a bigger deal than I thought:

quote:

The New England Patriots have a suspiciously low fumble rate

... NFL analyst William Sharp found that, since 2010, the Patriots have fumbled dramatically less often than any other team that plays home games outside. And both Sharp and the Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino looked at players who played for both the Patriots and another team between 2007 and 2014. Those players fumbled 46 percent less often when they were with New England.


http://www.vox.com/2015/1/26/7906127/patriots-deflate-fumble-stats

Can someone estimate how many wins are added by cutting your fumble rate in half?



Horribly flawed attempt at meaningful analysis.

Seriously, offensive plays per fumble? I'm a little surprised you posted something like that.

Perhaps these data experts are not aware of the fact that a fumble is not even possible on a significant percentage of plays.

Over that five year span referenced in that crackpot piece, over 1000 Patriot plays resulted in incompletions. A play impossible to have fumbled. How many more were TD's caught in the endzone? Another play impossible to have fumbled.

I guess everybody thinks they cracked the code. That particular effort was very weak.


Perhaps the data experts were aware that virtually every offensive play has a QB/center exchange meaning virtually every play leads to a chance to fumble.

True for all teams across the board equally. You don't think fumbled snaps were removed from the analysis do you?

It's fair to look at every play.

Also, I don't know where NE ranks in pass vs run plays but Brady is one of the more accurate QB's over that time I'd imagine so is 1000 incompletions high or low compared to other teams?



Yet, oddly absent in that article is any data on Center/QB exchange fumbles. In fact, no data at all on Brady's fumbles.
Brady is the alleged mastermind behind this, yet no specific data on his fumble rate.


The whole story is nonsense that detracts from real football talk

The two best teams in the NFL are in the Super Bowl

The best team will win

It should be a very competitive game

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