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Ranking Head Coaches by Strategic Decision-Making
ESPN INSIDER
Andrew Healy
On a week-to-week basis, almost no decision-makers receive as much scrutiny and second-guessing as the 32 men patrolling NFL sidelines. Go for it or kick? Pull out that red challenge flag or keep it in its hiding place? Call that timeout or let the clock continue to tick away? An NFL head coach confronts these strategic dilemmas knowing his calls can make the difference between winning and losing and whether he keeps his job or loses it.
Today we've got a metric -- call it Strategy Score -- to rank all 32 head coaches according to how well they handle these decisions. The coaches at the top make the calls that consistently put their teams in the best position to win. They stay aggressive when other coaches chicken out and avoid the head-scratching mistakes that bedevil others in the heat of the moment.
Strategy Score consists of three components:
Fourth-down aggressiveness: The numbers make it clear that coaches don't go for it on fourth down nearly enough. I look at all fourth-down decisions in the first three quarters -- since in the fourth quarter the game situation often dictates the decision -- and control for the score, distance to go, and the location on the field. A coach gets assigned a number that represents the extra number of times he would have gone for it on fourth down, facing the same game situation, compared to the league's most conservative coach (Mike McCoy of the San Diego Chargers).
Challenge mistakes: I went through all challenges made -- and not made -- to identify the cases where coaches made clear mistakes. Upon review, many challenges that failed were not clear mistakes since they were worth a try, either because of the game situation or because the tape showed the call was extremely close. There were even a couple cases where a successful challenge was a mistake because it gained little and left a team without further challenges.
Clock management mistakes: I reviewed end-of-half and end-of-game clock management decisions to find games where coaches made mistakes that had a substantial impact on a team's chances of winning. These mistakes are mostly about timeouts, but I squeezed in a couple egregious late-game field goal attempts. Pass vs. run decisions need to be indefensible to make the cut, since there is often a reasonable argument to go either way.
A coach's Strategy Score is just his aggressiveness number minus the total number of mistakes. For the interim coaches, the mistakes are prorated to the full slate of 11 games.
Ranking NFL Coaches by Strategy Score
Rank
Coach
Team
4th Down
Chall Mistakes
Clock Mistakes
Strategy Score
1 Ron Rivera CAR 7.00 1 0 6.00
2 Mike McCarthy GB 5.71 1 1 3.71
3 Bill Belichick NE 4.47 1 0 3.47
4 Jay Gruden WAS 4.22 0 1 3.22
5 Dan Quinn ATL 5.10 1 1 3.10
6 Mike Zimmer MIN 3.92 1 0 2.92
7 Chip Kelly PHI 4.24 1 1 2.24
8 Lovie Smith TB 4.86 3 0 1.86
9 Pete Carroll SEA 3.76 1 1 1.76
10 Jack Del Rio OAK 3.75 2 0 1.75
11 Jim Caldwell DET 3.23 1 1 1.23
12 Todd Bowles NYJ 4.05 2 1 1.05
13 Gary Kubiak DEN 2.99 2 0 0.99
14 Bill O'Brien HOU 2.86 2 0 0.86
15 Jason Garrett DAL 3.38 2 1 0.38
16 Marvin Lewis CIN 4.32 2 2 0.32
17 Dan Campbell MIA 1.25 0 1 0.25
18 Gus Bradley JAC 2.02 2 0 0.02
19 Andy Reid KC 3.99 2 2 -0.01
20 Bruce Arians ARI 1.94 1 1 -0.06
21 Jeff Fisher STL 2.71 2 1 -0.29
22 Mike Mularkey TEN 0.63 1 0 -0.37
23 Mike Tomlin PIT 1.27 0 2 -0.73
24 Sean Payton NO 3.09 3 1 -0.91
25 Mike McCoy SD 0.00 0 1 -1.00
26 John Fox CHI 1.45 1 2 -1.55
27 John Harbaugh BAL 3.69 5 1 -2.31
28 Chuck Pagano IND 1.49 4 0 -2.51
29 Tom Coughlin NYG 2.00 2 3 -3.00
30 Jim Tomsula SF 2.44 5 1 -3.56
31 Rex Ryan BUF 2.21 6 0 -3.79
32 Mike Pettine CLE 1.19 3 4 -5.81
The best
Ron Rivera's aggressiveness has paid off for the unbeaten Panthers. AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth
Ron Rivera, Panthers: The undefeated Panthers have the league's best coach according to Strategy Score. No coach has been more aggressive this season. Riverboat Ron has gone for it all six times he has faced fourth-and-1 inside opposing territory in the first half. The rest of the league has played it safe and kicked 28 percent of the time in that situation. Cam Newton deserves some credit, enabling fourth-down aggressiveness with his rushing ability. On four of the plays, Newton kept the ball. He converted all four times.
Rivera shows that coaches can get much better at strategy. Not that long ago -- when the Panthers lost the occasional game -- Rivera was one of the least aggressive coaches in the league.
The rest of the best
Mike McCarthy, Packers: McCarthy ranks second in aggressiveness. In the first half this year, he has gone for it five of seven times in opposing territory when facing fourth-and-1 or fourth-and-2. Only two of the five attempts succeeded, but the wrong result doesn't change that going for it was the right decision.
Bill Belichick, Patriots: Week 13 wasn't the best for the Patriots or their usually strategically sound coach. We're not calling the end-of-half clock management against the Eagles a clear-cut mistake as some have, but we do give Belichick his first demerits of the season for failing to challenge an important fourth-quarter third-down play that was ruled pass interference on Malcolm Butler but appeared to be tipped by Jamie Collins before the contact. Belichick's mistake means every coach has at least one on their 2015 resume.
Jay Gruden, Redskins: After facing clock management questions in his first year, Gruden has made only one clear mistake in 2015. Even that mistake -- failing to start calling timeouts before the two-minute warning at the end of the Week 1 game against Miami -- hurt his team less than most clock management errors made by other coaches. My analysis also shows Gruden not making any important mistakes with the challenge flag.
Dan Quinn, Falcons: The rookie coach ranks fifth overall, but probably should get an extra penalty for making one of the most impactful mistakes of the season in Week 9 against the 49ers.
The worst
Mike Pettine, Browns: The coaches who fail the fourth-down test the most also often make the biggest mistakes on challenges and clock management. No coach shows this better than the Browns' Pettine. This year, Pettine ranks 30th on fourth down -- a big drop from last year when he was middle of the pack -- and has the most total mistakes with seven.
In Week 1, Pettine failed to challenge a third-down pass to Brandon Marshall that would likely have been overturned on review. That mistake cost the Browns at least four points in a game that was 14-10 in the third quarter. The ineptitude has continued through Week 13 against the Bengals, when the Browns made a mash of the clock for the second week in a row.
The rest of the worst
Rex Ryan, Bills: Ryan ranks 22nd in aggressiveness and first in bad challenge decisions. He set the standard two weeks ago against the Chiefs with three poor decisions in one game (explored here). No other coach has had more than two important mistakes in a single game, and that count of three doesn't include another lost, but justifiable, challenge late in the fourth quarter. More importantly, Ryan lost a no-hope third-quarter challenge and failed to challenge two crucial plays that would likely have been overturned.
Jim Tomsula, 49ers: It has been an inauspicious beginning for the rookie coach by every measure, including Strategy Score. He is tied for second with five mistakes on challenges after failing again in Week 13 with a no-chance challenge of a recovery on a second-quarter punt. Tomsula would rank even worse if we penalized him for some curious fourth-quarter punts.
Tom Coughlin, Giants: Coughlin's successful career shows that game strategy is just one element of being an NFL head coach. We don't have a scoring system for game preparation, motivation or locker-room management. Nevertheless, game strategy has always been a problem for the Giants' coach. In 2015, he's trails only Pettine in the number of games where he has bungled the clock. Not even Pettine can match Coughlin for game-changing clock-management mistakes this year.
Chuck Pagano, Colts: If these rankings included a penalty for strange fake punts, Pagano would rank lower than No. 28. Against Tampa Bay in Week 12, both his challenge of a Mike Evans catch and a T.Y. Hilton non-catch had little chance of succeeding. Referee Walt Coleman declared each call "confirmed" on review.
And from where did they derive this fancy new metric?
I believe it came right out of that orifice about three feet below their heads.
_____________________________
“There is no hate like Christian love.”
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