RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (Full Version)

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drviking -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/10/2013 11:53:06 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: J Jeffreys

Brand new almost everything for the Eagles but they had strong start last year too.  How'd that work out? 

This reminds me of Pitino going to the Celtics and tryng to fast break and full court press for 48 minutes.  You can't keep up that pace.  And Chuck Bednarik ain't walkin through that door.

The good news is when the Vikings get them they will be spent, quivering puddles of sweat.  That sounded dirty.






It will be interesting...I don't think the rosters are big enough to keep that pace either, you have to be able to rotate some players


There are no easy games where you can rest some of the starters


We will see



J Jeffreys -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/10/2013 12:04:34 PM)

I like some of the Eagles innovations.  That spread formation with only three guys in the box spreads the field and plays to a strength of speed.  A great way to get 1:1 matchups as long as it's not overused.



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/10/2013 12:07:13 PM)

The Eagles didn't have a strong start last year

Their offense struggled

Opening week last year Vick threw 4 INTs at Cleveland

The issue with the Eagles is that Vick can't physically stand up for 16 weeks at this point of his career

By the time we see them we probably will face Foles who is easier to defend - but still better than Ponder



J Jeffreys -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/10/2013 12:10:20 PM)

Too many tournovers for Vick and co.  And Nnamdi from Oakland never showed up.  What happened to him?  He was a shutdown CB up there with Revis.  I blamed the scheme for some of it.  But still.



Eric K -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/10/2013 12:36:15 PM)

quote:

What happened to him?


He went to the Raiders...



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/10/2013 4:09:41 PM)

Namdi is toast

He lost his burst and is a sitting duck out there



J Jeffreys -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/10/2013 5:13:23 PM)

John Childress - The Eagles didn't have a strong start last year

Yes, the Eagles struggled to a 3-1 start.  3-1 is a strong start. You may have issues with how they played.  Sure.  But a 3-1 record to start the season is strong.  Not perfect, but strong.




marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/12/2013 8:36:35 PM)

I was going to go with NE by 3 before the game, and will stay with that, now having the knowledge they lead by 7 after the 1st quarter.



Ricky J -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/12/2013 8:58:34 PM)

Todd, I just saw your pick.

[&:]



Todd M -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/12/2013 9:08:31 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

Todd, I just saw your pick.

[&:]


I told you I was thinking of changing it but got busy and didn't go in.

Stuck with it now.

I still think I'll be playing next week. Just stuck with the bad karma.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/12/2013 9:19:43 PM)

For the rest of the games:

Minnesota 24 Chicago 16
Cleveland 10 Baltimore 27
Dallas 24 KC 27
Denver 47 NY Giants 31
St. Louis 14 Atlanta 38
Carolina 13 Buffalo 17
Washington 17 GB 31
Tennessee 13 Houston 29
Miami 21 Indy 34
SD 24 Philly 38
Detroit 28 Arizona 35
NO 34 TB 31
Jax 17 Oak 28
SF 31 Seattle 44
Pitts 17 Cincy 24



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/13/2013 8:25:26 AM)

That's pretty cool that the Jets scored 7 while NE scored 3, making my prediction of NE by 3 correct. I wouldn't have nailed the score (I was thinking 23-20), but did get the margin correct. Hopefully, I get that right on ALL the games this week, especially the Vikings' game ! (Vikes by 8)



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/13/2013 10:15:56 AM)

Good idea Marty

I like your pics except:

SD 24 Philly 38 - I see this game much closer and possibly SD winning. RGIII had a ton of open WRs that he just missed. Chargers 27-24


SF 31 Seattle 44 - I see this a much lower scoring game. I also think Seattle is down too many WRs to win. I see SF 24-20 with Seattle taking the rematch when they are at full strength



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/13/2013 10:31:36 PM)

Good points JC.

I went with a few wider margins of victory because I tend to predict everything being really close, but many times the scores end up being farther apart. I think you're right that SD is likely to make it close with Philly as Philly doesn't have much for defense. I also think Cleveland is likely to make things closer with the Ravens as the Ravens have plenty of weakness on defense, and the Giants will probably make it closer with Denver. I also think you're right that SF-Seattle is likely to be lower scoring, but I'm still sticking with Seattle.

I'm just going to roll with my original predictions and hope the 2nd thoughts on the games being closer is likely wrong. I already got the margin exactly right on the 1st game, maybe I'll get all of them right, or at least close. Just hoping to get the most important one right: The Vikings!



Knute -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/14/2013 4:47:48 PM)

Wrong thread sorry



Knute -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/14/2013 4:48:46 PM)

edit



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/15/2013 5:38:56 PM)

JC, you were right on SD-Philly, and I was right in saying Cleveland and the Giants would probably make their games closer than the wide margins I predicted earlier in the week.

Lots of close games this week. A person could have made A TON of money doing Super Teasers in Vegas. Teams aren't going on the road and blowing anybody out, it's only the home teams winning by a large margin - so far.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/15/2013 5:51:00 PM)

I missed on Philly and Minnesota, but the one that surprised me the most was Indy losing at home to Miami. I must have overestimated Indy, perhaps shouldn't have had them in the AFC Championship.

I DID get KC over Dallas, Buffalo over Carolina, I wouldn't have picked those 2 teams LAST year.



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/15/2013 6:20:40 PM)

The Eagles may have the worst defense in the NFL

Vick threw for 400 yards, 2 TDs plus ran another one in with no turnovers and they still lost



David F. -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/16/2013 2:54:57 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

Let's get this party started. I've seen enough to make my predictions (please no major injuries!).



@ Det - W
@ Chi - W
vs Cle - W
'vs' Pitt - L
vs Car - W
at NYG - L
vs GB - W
at Dal - W
vs Was - W
at Sea - W
at GB - L
vs Chi - W
at Bal - W
vs Phi - W
at Cin - W
vs Det - W

Game 1: It's Detroit. Game over. Vikes by 13.

Game 2: If there was one game on this schedule that I'm on the fence with it's this one. But screw it! It's Chicago and they only have Cutler to Marshall. We now have The Eraser and three good CB's. Vikes by three.

Game 3: Home opener against Cleveland. We own them. Vikes by 17.

Game 4: London game. Vikes don't seem to do well in 'non-standard' game day conditions. Pittsburgh has 'Big Ben'. So do the Brits. Steelers by 10.

Game 5: First game after the bye week. Vikes historically excellent in that game. Panthers just don't match up well against us. Vikes by ten.

Game 6: Let down game. Once again a 'prime time' game and we suck at those. Giants by seven but really not that close.

Game 7: If there's one thing that can get you over the 'prime time' problem it's bringing in the cheese for a home game. Bet your house on this one. Vikes by 13 and it will be all the talk for the next week. The Pack didn't do enough to protect Rodgers and the Vikes are currently built to destroy him. Look for Rodger's lazy eye to get knocked straight, then crooked again, and then straight again.

Game 8: Tee off on Romo and he makes mistakes both severely and plentifully. Vikes by seven.

Game 9: This is the second closest game I came to marking as a 'L'. 'Prime time' again - yuck! That being said I just don't see us laying the egg against them that we did last year. On top of that we are at home this time. This will be Frazier's defining moment as a coach and he will contain RGIII with a few surprises a la the Philly game when Winfield had a 'field' day against Vick. Vike's by seven but it's not really that close.

Game 10: Love you Winfield - you're my second favorite Vike of all time but you've gotten old. Percy can go pound sand. Grudge match all the way! This time Musgrave doesn't let off the ground attack. Vikes by four.

Game 11: It's so hard to win there. They get so many horseshit calls. Entitlement Town. Pack by ten.

Game 12: We will see the epic meltdown of Cutler. Their playoff dreams and really their entire franchise dream's of building around Cutler and Marshall will crash all around them. Vikes by 17. Yep - you read that correctly. Don't worry though Chicago - you'll always have 1985.

Game 13: Ravens mortgaged everything to get that Superbowl last year. I don't blame them - I'd do it too. Congrats to the 2012 squad. This year's Ravens wont even closely resemble last year's team. Vikes by seven.

Game 14: I don't know if the 15th of December is too early for Santa Claus to come out and get boo'd and pelted by snowballs but I think Philly is in tough shape this year. Vikes by three.

Game 15: This is the third-most closest pick I had to a 'L'. Either the Bengals will have disintegrated by now or will be fighting for a playoff spot. Either way - they won't have enough talent to withstand a Vikings squad that is starting to realize they have a chance - THIS YEAR. Vikes by four.

Game 16: Last game (regular season) game ever at the Dome. It's Detroit. It's a slaughter. The fact that there will be a home playoff game upcoming will be the only thing keeping us from taking our four seats with us out the door. Vikes by 17.



Time to get one correct this weekend, and then get another one wrong in Great Britain. Cheerio!



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/16/2013 7:43:37 PM)

IF you get everyone wrong David, the Vikes will only win THREE games ! [:@]

Hey, I only had 3 wrong yesterday, just Minnesota on the road, Philly and Indy losing at home. Happy to get Arizona, Buffalo and KC right, just wish Minnesota would have won.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/16/2013 9:30:54 PM)

Our perceptions might be colored a little strongly by the 2 losses, but I'm just curious, at this point in the season, how many wins do you guys and gals now think the Vikes will get for the season ?

If you had to choose a range of 3, where do you now think they will fall ?

I'm going with 4-6 wins. Is that too pessimistic ? Do you think that is about right, or too high ?



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/17/2013 9:27:09 PM)

I didn't realize until looking it over, that I was only wrong on 3 games, and the ones I was wrong on were VERY close. The teams I picked wrong were Minnesota (they lost by 1), Philly (they lost by 3) and Indy (they lost by 4).

So a Super Teaser off my picks would have worked out quite well, as long as you didn't go with Philly +2.5 (the line had moved a lot, you might have gotten Philly +4 or 5 at some casinos, which would have covered) . Picking the other 14, a $100 bet would have gotten you $2000. You could have picked any 7 of them and made a good chunk of money.

Picking 14 teams, you would have had:

NE -2, Atl +3.5, Buf +12.5, Minnesota +18, GB +2.5, Indy +7.5, KC +7, Balt +3.5, Hou +1, Ariz +12, NO +6.5, Oak +4.5, Sea +7, Cincy +3.

Picking 14 is a lot of teams. You can pick 7 and still make some decent money. Next week, I will show beforehand what a possible super teaser winner might look like, we'll see if it would have worked. Those listed above are based on my picks, not what my gut says with regards to points. The trick is to NOT being on the wrong side of a blowout.

The Super Teasers work quite well when there is parity, and as long as you're on the right side of a game should the officials be 'swaying' a game. IF there are no 'sways', the games become fairly predictable. I don't know if there were any 'sways' last week, but I might have benefitted from officiating with Minnesota (I think they might have gotten favorable officiating), Arizona against Detroit, and maybe Atlanta against St. Louis:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/23704405/jeff-fisher-rams-called-for-five-incorrect-penalties-against-falcons

Had those calls not been made, it's quite possible that game has a different result, or a least the Falcons don't cover the spread.

Next week I'll put a pretend teaser based on my picks, and then do another more based on my gut with regards to the points. With regards to points, last week I probably would have taken St Louis +16.5, Dallas +13, SD +17.5, TB +13.5 in a Super Teaser. SD+17.5 probably would have been a bit more appealing than Philly +2.5.



69in09 -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/17/2013 11:56:15 PM)

Still thinking 10-6. Strong possibility we sweep at home. Problem is AFC north is so weak our whole division will have a ballooned record.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/19/2013 10:20:11 AM)

Pretty optimistic 69, that's good to see.

I'm picking Philly tonight, and then Philly +7 on a Super Teaser.



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