quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

And while everyone is obsessed with COVID-19, it reached 100 degrees in the arctic circle last weekend (highest temperature ever recorded). Once COVID 19 is behind us, we may want to address that issue rather than continuing to kick the can down the road.

Eat some more Impossible Burgers at Burger King.

Wasn't NYC supposed to be under water by now? As predicted by a man(Al Gore) who has become rich off of global warming. Gore's mansion in Tennessee uses more electricity that an average family uses in 21 years. He doesn't seem too worried.

Almost forgot his other home. The Ocean view Villa in California. Once again, really worried about Global Warming and rising water levels.

quote:

ORIGINAL: jbusse

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

self-deleted

Eat some more Impossible Burgers at Burger King.

Wasn't NYC supposed to be under water by now? As predicted by a man(Al Gore) who has become rich off of global warming. Gore's mansion in Tennessee uses more electricity that an average family uses in 21 years. He doesn't seem too worried.

Almost forgot his other home. The Ocean view Villa in California. Once again, really worried about Global Warming and rising water levels.

What a hypocrite. He's made a lot of money (good for him), but I guess he only believes in conserving the environment when it's convenient.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

Switching back to COVID, I read a piece on Afghanistan, of all places, and it seems like the COVID cases there have really gone way done. Now, it is hard to know how accurate these numbers are, because the testing is so low, but looking at the numbers in this article, and the fact that their reported numbers have gone way down and I have to ask: has Afghanistan showed us what happens when a country reaches herd immunity?

https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/10-million-afghans-likely-infected-and-recovered-covid-19-survey


Nearly a third of the country infected and recovered and 53% in Kabul sounds like what you might expect from herd immunity.

Herd immunity has been calculated by mathematicians at 43%, but that is sort of a general principal than something that makes sense in reality. In reality, it makes sense that you would need a higher number in dense urban areas than in less dense rural areas. Also, herd immunity significantly slows the spread, but it does not end the disease.

The CDC estimates that there have been 10x the number of COVID cases in the US than what have been reported, so that could put the US at 50 million cases. So, we are not real close to true herd immunity yet.

However, herd immunity is also a gradual thing. The states and countries that have had high death rates from COVID had huge numbers of uncounted cases that happened before there was testing and developed the start of herd immunity. If these areas also follow up this partial herd immunity with mask usage, social distancing and keeping high-risk activities shut down, there could be a lower effective herd immunity rate that may be achievable once an area gets to a number lower than 43%.

How much lower? It is hard to know and it likely depends on how good people do on mask-usage and social distancing.

We might not be too far away from slowing this thing down significantly IF people wear masks or socially distance.

The median age of a person in Afghanistan is 18.9 years old. The median age in the United States is 38.1. We have a much older population. In other words, out of 240 countries, Afghanistan ranks the 24th worst country in the world at keeping people alive (bottom 10%). If we were to try and reach herd immunity, we would have far more dead people than Afghanistan trying to reach herd immunity.

Perhaps we should think more about what the United States is doing (or not doing) than what Afghanistan is doing. They don't have a great history of keeping people alive. It is like comparing apples to oranges.

My other suggestion to you would be to move to Afghanistan. Perhaps they are of kindred spirit.

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

I don't claim to have any understanding of economics. However, the thing that seems obvious to me and correct me if I'm wrong is production is what we need. If nobody is producing anything then their is nothing to buy or own. If we can generate production to me it seems that would drive prosperity. Hopefully for everybody. Get the GNP up. That In my uneducated opinion about economics is how we may be able to pull our country out of the economic devastation that has been brought on by the COVID-19.
David F,
Lynn,
Unome
Jbusse
what are your thoughts about this?

Bump. I would appreciate some comments on this please.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

My thought? Until we get Covid under control we can't increase production. If we had had a national strategy that started back in March we would almost certainly be back to almost full employment by now and kids would be going back to school in September.

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

The funny thing is that some of the latest case surge (at least in Texas, AZ, CA and NV) comes from the big COVID problem south of the border. Why is this funny? Mr. Build That Wall did nothing to make the Mexico border less porous the one time it was actually a really good idea to do so.

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

My thought? Until we get Covid under control we can't increase production. If we had had a national strategy that started back in March we would almost certainly be back to almost full employment by now and kids would be going back to school in September.

The sad thing is that we did not really need a national strategy as much as we just needed smart leadership that erred on the side of caution and made sure that something like wearing a mask was a short-term requirement and not some sort of personal liberties argument.

Also, any country that had any sort of COVID problem does NOT have full employment right now so this statement seems highly unlikely. On the other hand, you comment on schools being open and safer is right on.

The funny thing is that some of the latest case surge (at least in Texas, AZ, CA and NV) comes from the big COVID problem south of the border. Why is this funny? Mr. Build That Wall did nothing to make the Mexico border less porous the one time it was actually a really good idea to do so.

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

And while everyone is obsessed with COVID-19, it reached 100 degrees in the arctic circle last weekend (highest temperature ever recorded). Once COVID 19 is behind us, we may want to address that issue rather than continuing to kick the can down the road.

3 words.

Green. New. Deal.

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

And while everyone is obsessed with COVID-19, it reached 100 degrees in the arctic circle last weekend (highest temperature ever recorded). Once COVID 19 is behind us, we may want to address that issue rather than continuing to kick the can down the road.

3 words.

Green. New. Deal.

A bunch of talking points and not a single piece of legislation even proposed will 'save us' from climate change?

I think one flimsy bill that did, well, anything would be more meaningful. So much desire to kill our current economy and way of life from the greens/far left that they cannot be trusted.

How about this plan that accomplishes infinitely more than some talking points ever will:

1. Pass a tax on carbon. Oil, coal, natural gas.

2. Use every penny this new tax collects to reduce the income tax on the working and middle class.

3. The end.

Simple. Revenue neutral. Slightly progressive effect tax wise. Should not hurt the economy at all. Actually might pass.

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

My thought? Until we get Covid under control we can't increase production. If we had had a national strategy that started back in March we would almost certainly be back to almost full employment by now and kids would be going back to school in September.

The sad thing is that we did not really need a national strategy as much as we just needed smart leadership that erred on the side of caution and made sure that something like wearing a mask was a short-term requirement and not some sort of personal liberties argument.

Also, any country that had any sort of COVID problem does NOT have full employment right now so this statement seems highly unlikely. On the other hand, you comment on schools being open and safer is right on.

The funny thing is that some of the latest case surge (at least in Texas, AZ, CA and NV) comes from the big COVID problem south of the border. Why is this funny? Mr. Build That Wall did nothing to make the Mexico border less porous the one time it was actually a really good idea to do so.

The southern border is closed. Our problems are homegrown.

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine


I don't know about TX, CA and AZ, but Nevada's problem is not from south of the border.

The spike coincides with the casinos reopening. And only a very small % are people from Mexico and Brazil. Hell, Californias make up over half of the cases, with Arizona not that far behind.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

My thought? Until we get Covid under control we can't increase production. If we had had a national strategy that started back in March we would almost certainly be back to almost full employment by now and kids would be going back to school in September.

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

My thought? Until we get Covid under control we can't increase production. If we had had a national strategy that started back in March we would almost certainly be back to almost full employment by now and kids would be going back to school in September.

The sad thing is that we did not really need a national strategy as much as we just needed smart leadership that erred on the side of caution and made sure that something like wearing a mask was a short-term requirement and not some sort of personal liberties argument.

Also, any country that had any sort of COVID problem does NOT have full employment right now so this statement seems highly unlikely. On the other hand, you comment on schools being open and safer is right on.

The funny thing is that some of the latest case surge (at least in Texas, AZ, CA and NV) comes from the big COVID problem south of the border. Why is this funny? Mr. Build That Wall did nothing to make the Mexico border less porous the one time it was actually a really good idea to do so.

The southern border is closed. Our problems are homegrown.

The southern border was theoretically closed in March, but it was not closed at all.

I have a good friend in El Paso so this is not my opinion. She loves Mexico and owns a place there. Mexicans come across the border LEGALLY every day to work. Americans also went across the border to visit Mexico. And this does not even consider illegal crossings.

Not that this is the full reason for all of the COVID problem even in those states and I am not blaming Mexico. I just think it is funny that Trump was all about a wall and he cannot even close the border when it made sense to do so.

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

Unome: I know you do not understand economics and finance. Or capitalism. Most people don't so it is hardly something to feel defensive about.

Also Unome: Let's have everyone gamble their safety net social security on the markets.

Eventually Unome (?): Yeah you lost your safety net on the markets and and now you have no retirement savings. Most people don't it is hardly something to feel defensive about. It's also not something the rest of us should give a shitt about....

Count me among the ignorant horde who say keep the safety net a safety net.....

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

And while everyone is obsessed with COVID-19, it reached 100 degrees in the arctic circle last weekend (highest temperature ever recorded). Once COVID 19 is behind us, we may want to address that issue rather than continuing to kick the can down the road.

3 words.

Green. New. Deal.

A bunch of talking points and not a single piece of legislation even proposed will 'save us' from climate change?

I think one flimsy bill that did, well, anything would be more meaningful. So much desire to kill our current economy and way of life from the greens/far left that they cannot be trusted.

How about this plan that accomplishes infinitely more than some talking points ever will:

1. Pass a tax on carbon. Oil, coal, natural gas.

2. Use every penny this new tax collects to reduce the income tax on the working and middle class.

3. The end.

Simple. Revenue neutral. Slightly progressive effect tax wise. Should not hurt the economy at all. Actually might pass.

And does nothing substantial for the environment.

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

Ah, yes. Funny in a bitter way, but funny nonetheless.

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

Unome: I know you do not understand economics and finance. Or capitalism. Most people don't so it is hardly something to feel defensive about.

Also Unome: Let's have everyone gamble their safety net social security on the markets.

Eventually Unome (?): Yeah you lost your safety net on the markets and and now you have no retirement savings. Most people don't it is hardly something to feel defensive about. It's also not something the rest of us should give a shitt about....

Count me among the ignorant horde who say keep the safety net a safety net.....

You think that a bunch of IOUs is a "safety net"? How about you give me 12.4% of your wages for our whole life and I write you an IOU telling you will get that money back? Feel pretty safe? That's what you are doing now.

But, you proved my point right on not understanding finance. The people with retirement funds or resources invest their money in equities and debt. Having something backing your retirement account that is real IS a safety net.

I realize that, if left to their own devices, some people would lose all their money. Put it all in Enron or something similar. This is why I included protections that you did not cut and paste that would prevent this. A max of 5% in any one stock, and this could be 2% if that makes you happier, and no more than 10% in any one industry. Managing betas so that the portfolio is not subject to volatility risk. Anyone scared like you could put all the investment in munis and t-bills.

In fact, I would probably require a certain amount on money in low risk investments.

I do find it amusing that we force people to pay into a fund their whole life and then we do not let them invest their money in the same way that rich people do and we think we are doing them a favor by 'protecting' them from having a retirement fund with actual assets behind it.

"Taken together, the combined unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are more than $50 trillion" (2018)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-financial-hole-for-social-security-and-medicare-is-even-deeper-than-the-experts-say-2018-06-15

$50+ trillion in unfunded liabilities that are supported by a government that is in 25 trillion dollars of additional debt? That is a safety net just full of holes, isn't it?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson


As a religious person I don't believe that good and evil will co-exist forever. If that was the case there would be two Gods. Unlike traditional Christians, though, I don't believe just being raptured will change what's inside. I also believe that ultimately everyone has to be restored- otherwise it would not be the Kingdom of Heaven. Who could be in bliss knowing one of your children was suffering in eternal hell.

Sorry to bring religion to the discussion. I'm just defending my idealism, but I'm not sure how we got here. It's a Covid discussion forum.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

I can't remember.

Did the Bush Plan make it impossible for the Government to touch that money?

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

I can't remember.

Did the Bush Plan make it impossible for the Government to touch that money?

I do think you are correct

The government will never touch Social Security anyway. They will just print money if they cannot pay it back. Of course, this has its own substantial risks.

Things will go sideways with all this debt eventually. But the Ponzi scheme is still holding up, for now. I wish I could say that I hope the scheme lasts at least until I die, but I have kids so that does not ease my concerns at all.

Who could ever have known that having 75 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities would become a problem one day?

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

Ah, yes. Funny in a bitter way, but funny nonetheless.

Most things in 2020 are funny only in a bitter way.

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

Switching back to COVID, I read a piece on Afghanistan, of all places, and it seems like the COVID cases there have really gone way done. Now, it is hard to know how accurate these numbers are, because the testing is so low, but looking at the numbers in this article, and the fact that their reported numbers have gone way down and I have to ask: has Afghanistan showed us what happens when a country reaches herd immunity?

https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/10-million-afghans-likely-infected-and-recovered-covid-19-survey


Nearly a third of the country infected and recovered and 53% in Kabul sounds like what you might expect from herd immunity.

Herd immunity has been calculated by mathematicians at 43%, but that is sort of a general principal than something that makes sense in reality. In reality, it makes sense that you would need a higher number in dense urban areas than in less dense rural areas. Also, herd immunity significantly slows the spread, but it does not end the disease.

The CDC estimates that there have been 10x the number of COVID cases in the US than what have been reported, so that could put the US at 50 million cases. So, we are not real close to true herd immunity yet.

However, herd immunity is also a gradual thing. The states and countries that have had high death rates from COVID had huge numbers of uncounted cases that happened before there was testing and developed the start of herd immunity. If these areas also follow up this partial herd immunity with mask usage, social distancing and keeping high-risk activities shut down, there could be a lower effective herd immunity rate that may be achievable once an area gets to a number lower than 43%.

How much lower? It is hard to know and it likely depends on how good people do on mask-usage and social distancing.

We might not be too far away from slowing this thing down significantly IF people wear masks or socially distance.

self-deleted

You completely missed the mark.

I am not holding up Afghanistan as the model to emulate. Nothing in what I wrote even vaguely implies that. My point was that we might be seeing what happens when herd immunity is reached. This does not mean we should actively try for herd immunity.

You missed everything important in what I wrote to concentrate on what I did not even write at all. You would think being that off-base would be hard to do. How do you do it time and again?