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RE: Covid 19 and those infected

 
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RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:17:05 PM  1 votes
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo


NEWSFLASH!


The joke is on me for expecting better from Brad.


Typical Todd reaction. I expected better from you.

Brad has fun playing the bad guy in football discussions, but he's as good as anyone on here with topics that actually matter.
Post #: 301
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:26:34 PM   
unome

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

The biggest problem besides the receding polar ice caps. Is that the plankton in the ocean is disappearing at an alarming rate.

5 REASONS TO THANK PLANKTON THAT YOU’RE ALIVE TODAY.

1. Plankton make up 95 per cent of ocean life
2. They form the base of aquatic food webs
3. They generate half of the atmosphere’s oxygen
4. They help absorb carbon emissions
5. But our increasing emissions are harming them


The evidence that they will keep evolving and will do fine, but I am sure this would be an issue of CO2 rose to PETM levels, which is actually not possible (not without some external event anyway.

https://news.sfsu.edu/carbon-sequestering-ocean-plants-may-cope-climate-changes-over-long-run

We already have seen what happens with 4x the CO2 rate and it had both extinctions and very strong species development:


"The PETM is accompanied by a mass extinction of 35-50% of benthic foraminifera (especially in deeper waters) over the course of ~1,000 years – the group suffering more than during the dinosaur-slaying K-T extinction (e.g.,[37][38][39]). Contrarily, planktonic foraminifera diversified, and dinoflagellates bloomed. Success was also enjoyed by the mammals, who radiated extensively around this time.

The deep-sea extinctions are difficult to explain, because many species of benthic foraminifera in the deep-sea are cosmopolitan, and can find refugia against local extinction.[40] General hypotheses such as a temperature-related reduction in oxygen availability, or increased corrosion due to carbonate undersaturated deep waters, are insufficient as explanations. Acidification may also have played a role in the extinction of the calcifying foraminifera, and the higher temperatures would have increased metabolic rates, thus demanding a higher food supply. Such a higher food supply might not have materialized because warming and increased ocean stratification might have led to declining productivity [41] and/or increased remineralization of organic matter in the water column, before it reached the benthic foraminifera on the sea floor ([42]). The only factor global in extent was an increase in temperature. Regional extinctions in the North Atlantic can be attributed to increased deep-sea anoxia, which could be due to the slowdown of overturning ocean currents,[20] or the release and rapid oxidation of large amounts of methane. Oxygen minimum zones in the oceans may have expanded.[43]

In shallower waters, it's undeniable that increased CO
2 levels result in a decreased oceanic pH, which has a profound negative effect on corals.[44] Experiments suggest it is also very harmful to calcifying plankton.[45] However, the strong acids used to simulate the natural increase in acidity which would result from elevated CO
2 concentrations may have given misleading results, and the most recent evidence is that coccolithophores (E. huxleyi at least) become more, not less, calcified and abundant in acidic waters.[46] No change in the distribution of calcareous nanoplankton such as the coccolithophores can be attributed to acidification during the PETM.[46] Acidification did lead to an abundance of heavily calcified algae[47] and weakly calcified forams.[48]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum


Again, I have never said that there are no concerns or problems with increased CO2 levels, but we have historical data on what happened before and it is not at all as frightening as some would have it cracked up to be. We can learn from scientific history and plants and animals on the whole did very well in the warm PETM environment. It is especially important to note how well mammals did in this time period.
Post #: 302
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:34:34 PM  2 votes
unome

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine
.

Brad has fun playing the bad guy in football discussions, but he's as good as anyone on here with topics that actually matter.


"As good as anyone on here". Almost 69,000 DL posts and this may be the worst one you ever made. Or maybe that was just a massive slam to everyone here.

Defending Hoiseth is always a fool's errand. And how would you feel if Brad responded to your posts over and over and purposefully misattributed your opinions and then mocked your opinions that he himself got wrong? I doubt you would feel the same.

Or maybe "as good as anyone" is really just shorthand for "has similar opinions to me"? That would make more sense.
Post #: 303
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:38:17 PM  2 votes
David Levine


Posts: 77901
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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine
.

Brad has fun playing the bad guy in football discussions, but he's as good as anyone on here with topics that actually matter.


"As good as anyone on here". Almost 69,000 DL posts and this may be the worst one you ever made. Or maybe that was just a massive slam to everyone here.

Defending Hoiseth is always a fool's errand. And how would you feel if Brad responded to your posts over and over and purposefully misattributed your opinions and then mocked your opinions that he himself got wrong? I doubt you would feel the same.

Or maybe "as good as anyone" is really just shorthand for "has similar opinions to me"? That would make more sense.


Rapidly losing respect for you man. I thought you were better than this.

I guess I don't "nou"
Post #: 304
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:41:09 PM   
unome

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

Look up trapped methane and ocean temperature rise.

To state that humans can survive a global warming extreme even using up all fossil fuels..

Demonstrates a sever lack of understanding a biome.

Seriously, if that comes out of your I’ll informed thought process... we can live thru a climat change.....

Just, WOW...




Edit: I finally figured out what you were trying to say! Methane stays in the atmosphere for 8-12 years so it is not the concern long term that you think it is.

What I said before was that the PETM had more CO2 in the atmosphere than there would be if we burned all known fossil fuels, And mammals thrived in that period. So, that is what I was saying. I think you are disagreeing, but you have no evidence or, well anything to refute my statements and, you may want to try doing this before you mock what you do not appear to understand.

Of course we can live through a climate change. Mammals have survived through all the climate changes in the last 178 million years. The hard ones have not been the warming events, they have been the cooling ones.

< Message edited by unome -- 8/10/2020 7:04:24 PM >
Post #: 305
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:45:44 PM   
unome

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Rapidly losing respect for you man. I thought you were better than this.

I guess I don't "nou"


I would have thought the winking guy would have told you I was giving you some ribbing, but if giving you a hard time was all it took for you to lose respect for me than I apparently did not have much respect to begin with. And that is too bad.
Post #: 306
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:49:50 PM  4 votes
David Levine


Posts: 77901
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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Rapidly losing respect for you man. I thought you were better than this.

I guess I don't "nou"


I would have thought the winking guy would have told you I was giving you some ribbing, but if giving you a hard time was all it took for you to lose respect for me than I apparently did not have much respect to begin with. And that is too bad.


It had little to do with your response to me. Although the tone of your post was standard for how you respond to anyone that doesn't agree with you.

A lot of arrogance and condescension.
Post #: 307
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:55:13 PM  2 votes
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Rapidly losing respect for you man. I thought you were better than this.

I guess I don't "nou"


I would have thought the winking guy would have told you I was giving you some ribbing, but if giving you a hard time was all it took for you to lose respect for me than I apparently did not have much respect to begin with. And that is too bad.


It had little to do with your response to me. Although the tone of your post was standard for how you respond to anyone that doesn't agree with you.

A lot of arrogance and condescension.


That's more than a little bit like the pot calling the kettle black.
Post #: 308
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 6:58:44 PM   
unome

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

It had little to do with your response to me. Although the tone of your post was standard for how you respond to anyone that doesn't agree with you.

A lot of arrogance and condescension.


By chance, have you noticed any arrogance and condescension coming my way? Would you like me to cut and paste about 20 examples?

The last post to me, besides yours, literally had this emoji in it: . Maybe you missed that.

Do you plan on lecturing Dan on his level of condescension? Did you notice any condescension towards me from Hoiseth in every post he made despite not actually portraying my points accurately? You know, the ones you praised.

You may not have, but I sure did.

I think it would be great if you were the moderator of arrogance and condescension for this thread and pointed out any specifics where I could have posted better comments, but only if you do the same for all posters. If it is not going to be the same standards for everyone than those are not really standards then, are they?
Post #: 309
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 7:16:22 PM   
unome

 

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Believe it or not, I did not come to this thread to discuss global warming.



I read an incredibly interesting piece of COVID and IMO it is a "must read" for anyone that is really trying to figure out what is going on with COVID.

Why are some people are asymptomatic and not others?
Why do some countries seem to have better COVID results even after people get the disease?
Does having been infected with a different strain of COVID previously in your life matter?
Does wearing masks also help prevent disease severity?
Do some past vaccinations for other diseases, specifically polio and pneumonia, seem to help some people avoid severe COVID symptoms?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/forty-percent-of-people-with-coronavirus-infections-have-no-symptoms-might-they-be-the-key-to-ending-the-pandemic/ar-BB17JpdS?li=BBorjTa

I know, I know there are a lot of words in the article, but it is one of the most interesting COVID reads I have seen.

< Message edited by unome -- 8/10/2020 7:24:34 PM >
Post #: 310
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 7:25:37 PM  5 votes
Brad H


Posts: 22986
Joined: 8/16/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

The biggest problem besides the receding polar ice caps. Is that the plankton in the ocean is disappearing at an alarming rate.

5 REASONS TO THANK PLANKTON THAT YOU’RE ALIVE TODAY.

1. Plankton make up 95 per cent of ocean life
2. They form the base of aquatic food webs
3. They generate half of the atmosphere’s oxygen
4. They help absorb carbon emissions
5. But our increasing emissions are harming them

self-deleted

< Message edited by Brad H -- 8/13/2020 6:18:37 AM >


_____________________________

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Post #: 311
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 8:34:04 PM  1 votes
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Rapidly losing respect for you man. I thought you were better than this.

I guess I don't "nou"


I would have thought the winking guy would have told you I was giving you some ribbing, but if giving you a hard time was all it took for you to lose respect for me than I apparently did not have much respect to begin with. And that is too bad.


It had little to do with your response to me. Although the tone of your post was standard for how you respond to anyone that doesn't agree with you.

A lot of arrogance and condescension.


That's more than a little bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

I have loads of respect for DL, but when it comes to arrogance and condescension I would have a hard time finding his equal.

_____________________________

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So let it be done."
Post #: 312
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 9:17:04 PM   
unome

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H
When you start putting your financial desires over the health and well-being of your kids and society, you have really failed miserably as a nation.


Everyone puts the health of their kids generally above their own financial desires. Heck, just having kids is putting your kids above your own financial desires! As would most of us, I would have a whole lot more money if I had not had children, but like almost every parent, I would never choose to reverse my choice to choose children over greater personal wealth accumulation. Money has never called me Dad or told me they loved me. Money has also never yelled at me, needed a diaper change or been a snotty teenager, but parenthood is taking the good with the bad.

Still, I think you are stating another false choice here.

Our children will be the ones saddled with our massive debt that had grown immensely in this pandemic so I cannot see financial damage as being completely unrelated to my kid's well being. Looking at health and financial choices is a tricky one and far less simple than choosing health.

Take safer cars. More people die EVERY YEAR from car accidents in the world than will die of COVID-19 this year. And there will not be a vaccine or herd immunity to solve car accidents.

Could we make safer cars? We can and do and car accident deathss have dropped by 30%+ in the US over the years despite more care and more people. But we could still save more people, especially worldwide. The problem is that the only way to do that would be to make cars too expensive for most people to drive them. Not a viable option, so we are left with more than a million deaths a year. And lots of young people in these numbers.

Life is about balancing a whole bunch of trade-offs. One of the best ways to make safer cars is to use more steel. Make them sturdier. Of course, this would cost money and require more gas, read more CO2 emissions and global warming, to drive them.

We need to make trade offs whether we like to think about it or not. We are choosing more car accident deaths over the poor not being able to afford cars and increased fossil fuel usage and CO2 emissions. We do try and mitigate this by making choices that reduce these deaths in a reasonably inexpensive way. Car seats and airbags save countless lives and do not add that much to the cost of the cars as to make them unaffordable, at least in the US.

Could we save some lives if we shut everything down and did as much virtually as possible? Yes, we could. But there are pretty substantial trade-offs to doing this.

We clearly should make some of the trade-offs for health protection, but your black/white, choose health or money proposition is simplistic and not really the actual choices we are facing. Our choices are much more nuanced than that.

< Message edited by unome -- 8/10/2020 9:24:31 PM >
Post #: 313
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 9:20:45 PM   
unome

 

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Duplicate
Post #: 314
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 10:38:08 PM   
Bruce Johnson

 

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I think we should shut down the economy because too many people are having auto accidents. Let's set up check points so that people won't take unnecessary vacations. While we're at it, let's require every man, woman and child get a flu shot and have police raids to see that people are wearing masks in their homes.

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?
Post #: 315
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 10:48:08 PM   
Bruce Johnson

 

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#Vikings players Riley Reiff and Britton Colquitt both think the NFL product on the field will actually be better this year. Colquitt said players won't be beaten down as much already entering the season.

Chris Tomasson on Twitter

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?
Post #: 316
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/10/2020 10:56:43 PM   
Bruce Johnson

 

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Reiff's comments about working with Pat Elflein next to him didn't sound like he actually thinks Pat Elflein will be working next to him.

https://twitter.com/wludford/status/1292882521424834564?s=19

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?
Post #: 317
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 6:48:39 AM   
Bill Jandro

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Reiff's comments about working with Pat Elflein next to him didn't sound like he actually thinks Pat Elflein will be working next to him.

https://twitter.com/wludford/status/1292882521424834564?s=19

Best news I've heard all week.

I'd much rather take our lumps with Cleveland as the starting LG. It's not like Elf has set the bar very high. Chances are he'd be an improvement.

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Post #: 318
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 7:01:13 AM   
Brad H


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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H
When you start putting your financial desires over the health and well-being of your kids and society, you have really failed miserably as a nation.


Everyone puts the health of their kids generally above their own financial desires. Heck, just having kids is putting your kids above your own financial desires! As would most of us, I would have a whole lot more money if I had not had children, but like almost every parent, I would never choose to reverse my choice to choose children over greater personal wealth accumulation. Money has never called me Dad or told me they loved me. Money has also never yelled at me, needed a diaper change or been a snotty teenager, but parenthood is taking the good with the bad.

Still, I think you are stating another false choice here.

Our children will be the ones saddled with our massive debt that had grown immensely in this pandemic so I cannot see financial damage as being completely unrelated to my kid's well being. Looking at health and financial choices is a tricky one and far less simple than choosing health.

Take safer cars. More people die EVERY YEAR from car accidents in the world than will die of COVID-19 this year. And there will not be a vaccine or herd immunity to solve car accidents.

Could we make safer cars? We can and do and car accident deathss have dropped by 30%+ in the US over the years despite more care and more people. But we could still save more people, especially worldwide. The problem is that the only way to do that would be to make cars too expensive for most people to drive them. Not a viable option, so we are left with more than a million deaths a year. And lots of young people in these numbers.

Life is about balancing a whole bunch of trade-offs. One of the best ways to make safer cars is to use more steel. Make them sturdier. Of course, this would cost money and require more gas, read more CO2 emissions and global warming, to drive them.

We need to make trade offs whether we like to think about it or not. We are choosing more car accident deaths over the poor not being able to afford cars and increased fossil fuel usage and CO2 emissions. We do try and mitigate this by making choices that reduce these deaths in a reasonably inexpensive way. Car seats and airbags save countless lives and do not add that much to the cost of the cars as to make them unaffordable, at least in the US.

Could we save some lives if we shut everything down and did as much virtually as possible? Yes, we could. But there are pretty substantial trade-offs to doing this.

We clearly should make some of the trade-offs for health protection, but your black/white, choose health or money proposition is simplistic and not really the actual choices we are facing. Our choices are much more nuanced than that.

Despite the argument (Coronavirus deaths in the US v traffic deaths globally) being somewhat challenging, I'll try my best.

You may want to check your facts. Right around 35k people die every year in the country due to traffic accidents over the past decade, and we are on pace for about 1.5 million people dying from the Coronavirus around the globe. Now, I understand you said (traffic accidents) in the world, but in the United States that just isn't the case, not even close. And last I looked, we were talking about the US, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

Approximately 165k have died from the Coronavirus in the past six months in the US. In other words, you are close to 10 times more likely to die from the Coronavirus in the United States than a traffic accident, and that is with the safety and social distancing practices we have had in place. In addition, we have no idea of the long-term implications for those that beat the Coronavirus (KEY POINT). Are their lungs permanently scarred? Are people's immune systems going to be permanently compromised? The truth is, we really don't know.

So no, the comparison is bad. It's just like the comparison of dying from the flu, which has killed about 37k a year over the past decade. We know the long-term implications of flu strands. We know how to treat it. We understand the risks. With the Coronavirus, we know almost nothing.

The good news is, there is the prospects of a vaccine for the Coronavirus, which may lead to an end date at some point. So, the question is, what do we do until then? Do we try our best to keep people alive by inserting social distancing protocols? Do we just say screw it and send everyone back to work in an attempt to moderately boost up the economy, thus killing off a portion of the consumers? Do we send people back to work that are less of a risk?

Unlike cars, which have been around for 100 years, we know certain things about the virus, but we are a long ways from completely understanding it. It seems to be a very fluid situation, with new data coming out every week. They are now saying that there has been a 90-100% uptick in spread among teenagers in the past two weeks. Just when we think we understand it, the numbers take a radical turn. The one thing we do know is that if you stay home, take safety precautions and try to minimize contact, you should be okay. With cars, we have improved safety standards over time, and deaths have gone down quite a bit since the 60's. With the Coronavirus, as I said earlier, there is a lot of unknowns. We don't know the long-term implications.

In Europe, the countries have tremendous transit systems in place. In America, to our own detriment, we are married to driving cars. It's that old, rugged individualism that keeps rearing its head. The worst drivers on the planet are in Africa (very few safety precautions). The least amount of traffic deaths occur in Europe (tremendous mass transit system). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate There seems to be a strong correlation between safety measures/means of transportation, and death rates when it comes to traffic deaths, globally.

I agree, it is about balance and trade-offs, but you may want to have the right data if you are going to start analyzing it and serving up advice. The reality is, the numbers on the Coronavirus are still very raw. To say we completely understand it would be way off base. My best advice would be to try to minimize the damages in hopes of a vaccine. If the quest for a vaccine comes up fruitless, we may eventually have to take a different course. As I see it, the economy is going to take a hit no matter what course you take. There is no simple answer. So the question remains, in the meantime, do we value human life over modest (at-best) capital gains? In my opinion, there is only choice at this point until we have more data.

In the meantime, perhaps we should stay away from comparing Coronavirus deaths in the United States to traffic deaths globally. There seems to be little correlation. From this point forward, lets compare apples to apples. The argument seems to be confusing, at-best.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 8/11/2020 8:53:08 AM >


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Post #: 319
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 8:28:25 AM   
unome

 

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Thanks Brad for the nice reply. EDIT: I wrote that before I saw that you edited your piece to make it more condescending! It may be "absolutely ridiculous" to you, but my point was that any safety decision involves trade-offs.

Yes, I was talking world car accidents and the reported numbers for car accidents should be about the same for that and the reported COVID-19 deaths this year: 1.35 million. Although the COVID-19 deaths are not really likely to be recorded well at all in most third world countries, so I guess there will be far more COVID deaths after all. It is almost impossible to make an educated guess without good excess mortality numbers for each country.

I am very excited about all the many COVID vaccinations that are being tested. I was initially concerned because there are no vaccinations right now for any types of coronaviruses, but that is because the other coronaviruses either did not transmit easily from human-to-human, like SARS and MERS, or were not serious health risks and only had mild symptoms. As it turns out, if we had had widespread immunization/vaccination for any of these other coronaviruses, we probably would have had only a very small number of COVID-19 deaths. That ship has sailed though.

And a COVID-19 vaccination changes everything. One reason I am so interested in herd immunity is that the vaccination, plus the current population immunity, may start providing herd immunity with between 50-80 million vaccinations in the US depending on when vaccinations are ready to start. This does not mean we should stop vaccinations at that point, but it means that the case numbers should start really collapsing at that point.

< Message edited by unome -- 8/11/2020 8:34:16 AM >
Post #: 320
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 8:37:40 AM   
Brad H


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quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

Thanks Brad for the nice reply. EDIT: I wrote that before I saw that you edited your piece to make it more condescending! It may be "absolutely ridiculous" to you, but my point was that any safety decision involves trade-offs.

Yes, I was talking world car accidents and the reported numbers for car accidents should be about the same for that and the reported COVID-19 deaths this year: 1.35 million. Although the COVID-19 deaths are not really likely to be recorded well at all in most third world countries, so I guess there will be far more COVID deaths after all. It is almost impossible to make an educated guess without good excess mortality numbers for each country.

I am very excited about all the many COVID vaccinations that are being tested. I was initially concerned because there are no vaccinations right now for any types of coronaviruses, but that is because the other coronaviruses either did not transmit easily from human-to-human, like SARS and MERS, or were not serious health risks and only had mild symptoms. As it turns out, if we had had widespread immunization/vaccination for any of these other coronaviruses, we probably would have had only a very small number of COVID-19 deaths. That ship has sailed though.

And a COVID-19 vaccination changes everything. One reason I am so interested in herd immunity is that the vaccination, plus the current population immunity, may start providing herd immunity with between 50-80 million vaccinations in the US depending on when vaccinations are ready to start. This does not mean we should stop vaccinations at that point, but it means that the case numbers should start really collapsing at that point.

My biggest concern over herd immunity is the unknown of long-term implications from the Coronavirus. We don't know a lot about it, and won't for decades. To say we should just enter a forest without understanding the creatures that exist in the forest, seems a bit risky to me.

Sorry about the condescending nature of the comment ("absolutely ridiculous"). It wasn't meant to elicit that response. I'll try to be better next time. I made an edit.

Peace?

< Message edited by Brad H -- 8/11/2020 8:53:29 AM >


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Post #: 321
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 8:55:03 AM   
unome

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

Thanks Brad for the nice reply. EDIT: I wrote that before I saw that you edited your piece to make it more condescending! It may be "absolutely ridiculous" to you, but my point was that any safety decision involves trade-offs.

Yes, I was talking world car accidents and the reported numbers for car accidents should be about the same for that and the reported COVID-19 deaths this year: 1.35 million. Although the COVID-19 deaths are not really likely to be recorded well at all in most third world countries, so I guess there will be far more COVID deaths after all. It is almost impossible to make an educated guess without good excess mortality numbers for each country.

I am very excited about all the many COVID vaccinations that are being tested. I was initially concerned because there are no vaccinations right now for any types of coronaviruses, but that is because the other coronaviruses either did not transmit easily from human-to-human, like SARS and MERS, or were not serious health risks and only had mild symptoms. As it turns out, if we had had widespread immunization/vaccination for any of these other coronaviruses, we probably would have had only a very small number of COVID-19 deaths. That ship has sailed though.

And a COVID-19 vaccination changes everything. One reason I am so interested in herd immunity is that the vaccination, plus the current population immunity, may start providing herd immunity with between 50-80 million vaccinations in the US depending on when vaccinations are ready to start. This does not mean we should stop vaccinations at that point, but it means that the case numbers should start really collapsing at that point.

My biggest concern over herd immunity is the unknown of long-term implications from the Coronavirus. We don't know a lot about it, and won't for decades. To say we should just enter a forest without understanding the creatures that exist in the forest, seems a bit risky to me.

Sorry about the condescending nature of the comment ("absolutely ridiculous"). It wasn't meant to elicit that response.


No worries. Thanks!

Maybe my point was not clearly written, but herd immunity would be something we begin to attain when combining the current immunity from COVID cases that have already happened, which could have the negative long-term ramifications you mention, and the gained immunity from the population that are being vaccinated. Basically, I was trying to point out that we do not have to immunize the whole population to start getting herd immunity benefits. Hopefully, that makes more sense.
Post #: 322
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 8:56:08 AM   
unome

 

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
Status: offline
Peace.
Post #: 323
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 9:02:57 AM   
Brad H


Posts: 22986
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

Thanks Brad for the nice reply. EDIT: I wrote that before I saw that you edited your piece to make it more condescending! It may be "absolutely ridiculous" to you, but my point was that any safety decision involves trade-offs.

Yes, I was talking world car accidents and the reported numbers for car accidents should be about the same for that and the reported COVID-19 deaths this year: 1.35 million. Although the COVID-19 deaths are not really likely to be recorded well at all in most third world countries, so I guess there will be far more COVID deaths after all. It is almost impossible to make an educated guess without good excess mortality numbers for each country.

I am very excited about all the many COVID vaccinations that are being tested. I was initially concerned because there are no vaccinations right now for any types of coronaviruses, but that is because the other coronaviruses either did not transmit easily from human-to-human, like SARS and MERS, or were not serious health risks and only had mild symptoms. As it turns out, if we had had widespread immunization/vaccination for any of these other coronaviruses, we probably would have had only a very small number of COVID-19 deaths. That ship has sailed though.

And a COVID-19 vaccination changes everything. One reason I am so interested in herd immunity is that the vaccination, plus the current population immunity, may start providing herd immunity with between 50-80 million vaccinations in the US depending on when vaccinations are ready to start. This does not mean we should stop vaccinations at that point, but it means that the case numbers should start really collapsing at that point.

My biggest concern over herd immunity is the unknown of long-term implications from the Coronavirus. We don't know a lot about it, and won't for decades. To say we should just enter a forest without understanding the creatures that exist in the forest, seems a bit risky to me.

Sorry about the condescending nature of the comment ("absolutely ridiculous"). It wasn't meant to elicit that response.


No worries. Thanks!

Maybe my point was not clearly written, but herd immunity would be something we begin to attain when combining the current immunity from COVID cases that have already happened, which could have the negative long-term ramifications you mention, and the gained immunity from the population that are being vaccinated. Basically, I was trying to point out that we do not have to immunize the whole population to start getting herd immunity benefits. Hopefully, that makes more sense.

At this point, I don't think we have the necessary data to even define herd immunity. What about the people that have turned up getting the virus twice? There is no guarantees that it will not reappear. Everyone assumes that once you have gotten over it, it is gone for good. We don't know that. From what I understand about viruses (which is very little), they morph over time.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 8/11/2020 9:06:13 AM >


_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!
Post #: 324
RE: Covid 19 and those infected - 8/11/2020 9:05:54 AM   
unome

 

Posts: 985
Joined: 5/7/2013
Status: offline
Also peace to anyone else that feels I was being condescending or arrogant to them. I kind of treat my thoughts and ideas like my children so I get touchy when my 'kids' are attacked and ridiculed. But I do not expect everyone to agree with me, in fact, I know that I often have an opinion that does not conform with the popularly accepted opinion of the day. And I am OK with that.
Post #: 325
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