bohumm
Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
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quote:
ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson quote:
ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro No one knows the long term effects of this vaccine. Those vaccinated could all get wiped out but I don't see anyone hoping that happens. I've read nuts and whackos who assert that the vaccine is a secret plan to wipe out all the "liberals," but I want to respond to the long term effects issue. First, distinguish between the various vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna are similar mRNA vaccines, but dosage differences mean they may have somewhat different risk profiles. J&J is quite different from those two, as is the Astra Zeneca vaccine — maybe those two vaccines are second cousins. And Novavax is a third type (likely to get an EUA soon). I'm not sure what you mean by long term effects, but generally vaccine effects show up within 2 months. We've got lots of data past in time window, and beyond. Beyond 2 months, the J&J vaccine is using established technology, and so is the Novavax. So if "long term effects" refers to something beyond that timeframe, those two vaccine types have multi-year data, and no significant concerns. So if long term concerns about the technology are stopping anyone, get the J&J vaccine now. Or Novavax when it is approved. For the mRNA vaccines, probably the most novel technology, they have been under study for a decade+, with long term data from phase 1 & 2 trials for other viruses. That data isn't nearly as extensive as the others, or course, but nothing significant has shown up in the long term data from those trials. So although some skepticism is justified, any long term effect from the technology is likely to be rare or small, or it would have shown up already. But those vaccines are also markedly more effective. Realize that the alternative is for the virus to inject its complete mRNA into your cells, and that mRNA is designed to create many more virus particles, and for 1-5% the long term effects of the disease are substantial because of how it rips up your arteries. At this point, that's clearly a much, much greater risk than any plausible remaining effect of the vaccine. There's also a significant cohort of people who will sustain serious long-term respiratory impacts. Long-haulers who were never severe or hospitalized may take over a year to recover their previous level of pulmonary function, and for all we know at this point they may never fully recover. More severe cases may mean longer timelines. Those who were severe to the point where they endured acute respiratory distress syndrome, and their lungs will stay stiff and compromised for 6-12 months, if not permanently. We had a 50-year-old guy who came to us still on a vent several months after his infection was gone. His lungs could not inflate enough to give him the amount of air volume he needed with each breath, so he was breathing 35-45 times per minute. He had suffered a pulmonary embolism and cardiac arrest, and all of this happened in spite of the fact that he had no known issues prior to getting COVID. He left us to go back to an acute care hospital and he's currently in misery at another sub-acute facility in our system. Even if you don't care about him, understand the hundreds of thousands of dollars per year he alone will cost us (in addition to the millions due to his acute illness), because of course he lost his job while sick and therefor has no health insurance. There is a cost to this at so many levels before you even get to the fact that he's a good guy who was just living a responsible life, and now he is fukked, probably for good, physically, financially, emotionally, etc. Someone like him is walking around right now saying they don't want to get vaccinated based on faulty science and/or disjointed reasoning, stubbornness, fear, politics, religion, what have you. They will get a variant that is specifically infecting them because it is more pernicious and more virulent---that's how it's surviving. The only way variation occurs is to find susceptible hosts in those who don't want to get vaccinated (BTW, nobody "wants" to; they do it because it's what is indicated). Eventually the mutations could allow the virus in one of its variations to impact more people who have already been vaccinated. So yes, it matters to everyone that as many people as possible get vaccinated.
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