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RE: 2022 NFL draft

 
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RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/23/2022 9:40:58 PM   
bohumm

 

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The NFL today is all about thriving in the passing offense and stopping the other team's passing offense. The run matters too, but to a much lesser extent. So teambuilding is about how to accomplish those things. If you pick at 12, you have the chance to get a gamechanger in one of those realms. Getting an elite WR, CB, or Edge on a five-year contract is what the Vikings need to do.
Post #: 551
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/23/2022 10:07:52 PM   
Mark Anderson

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

The NFL today is all about thriving in the passing offense and stopping the other team's passing offense. The run matters too, but to a much lesser extent. So teambuilding is about how to accomplish those things. If you pick at 12, you have the chance to get a gamechanger in one of those realms. Getting an elite WR, CB, or Edge on a five-year contract is what the Vikings need to do.

When does Cousins struggle? When the IOL get pushed back into him.

I think with Davis, Philips, Watts, Lynch and Tomlinson, we could play like Tampa's D. Vea and Suh push up the middle and draw at least one double team, and the edge guys(Hunter, Z, Wonnum) clean up.

< Message edited by Mark Anderson -- 4/24/2022 8:24:01 AM >
Post #: 552
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/23/2022 10:13:36 PM   
Mark Anderson

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

The NFL today is all about thriving in the passing offense and stopping the other team's passing offense. The run matters too, but to a much lesser extent. So teambuilding is about how to accomplish those things. If you pick at 12, you have the chance to get a gamechanger in one of those realms. Getting an elite WR, CB, or Edge on a five-year contract is what the Vikings need to do.

Just don't settle for McDuffie.

I'm thinking if you trade down to 20s and still want a CB, probably go Booth Jr.
Post #: 553
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/23/2022 10:52:43 PM   
bohumm

 

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McDuffie is certainly a divisive prospect for someone who's often called the safest CB pick. I read analysts say he's elite, even the best in the draft, and others who say he belongs in the 20's if there. He was my early favorite because he seemed appropriate to the pick in the position of greatest need that is a also a prime position. I won't be mad if they take him, but he lacks luster. He and Davis are the hardest guys for me to understand since the evaluations are all over the place.
Post #: 554
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 8:23:05 AM   
Mark Anderson

 

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Would anybody here be okay with trading #12 for #29 and #30(KC)?
Post #: 555
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 8:42:02 AM   
Murph


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

Would anybody here be okay with trading #12 for #29 and #30(KC)?


I'd turn that down.

I would consider trading #12 for 29(depending on who's there) their 2nd and 3rd this year and their 2023 first(a second round value) .

Moving from 29 to 12 should have a steep price. KC is going to have to overpay a bit if they want the trade.

< Message edited by Murph -- 4/24/2022 8:43:38 AM >


_____________________________

Hey Wilf's, let's build a "Perennial Super Bowl contender" not a "perennial playoff contender".
Post #: 556
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 9:39:12 AM   
marty


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An article on this possible trade, stated that is almost exactly equal value: picks 29 and 30= pick 12.

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!
Post #: 557
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 9:45:36 AM   
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

The NFL today is all about thriving in the passing offense and stopping the other team's passing offense. The run matters too, but to a much lesser extent. So teambuilding is about how to accomplish those things. If you pick at 12, you have the chance to get a gamechanger in one of those realms. Getting an elite WR, CB, or Edge on a five-year contract is what the Vikings need to do.

When does Cousins struggle? When the IOL get pushed back into him.

I think with Davis, Philips, Watts, Lynch and Tomlinson, we could play like Tampa's D. Vea and Suh push up the middle and draw at least one double team, and the edge guys(Hunter, Z, Wonnum) clean up.


Which of those 5 guys are D. Vea and Suh?
Post #: 558
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:00:07 AM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

But if that's how he was used in college, when they run more and pass less effectively, how much can he be used in the NFL? And I knew someone would come with the Moss thing; he wasn't off the field for two-thirds of the plays. Rest when you're on the sideline, and if you're supposed to be rotational anyway, ask to come out if you can't give effort. I would take him later, and I'd like to have him on my team, but picking a guy at 12 to play one-third of the snaps---and not the most critical snaps---seems dicey.


It worked for Georgia!

I knew you'd take the Moss plays off ratio literally. Which BTW is three-quarters, not two-thirds.
Post #: 559
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:01:05 AM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

The NFL today is all about thriving in the passing offense and stopping the other team's passing offense. The run matters too, but to a much lesser extent. So teambuilding is about how to accomplish those things. If you pick at 12, you have the chance to get a gamechanger in one of those realms. Getting an elite WR, CB, or Edge on a five-year contract is what the Vikings need to do.


Earlier you were proclaiming BPA.
Post #: 560
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:05:50 AM   
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

But if that's how he was used in college, when they run more and pass less effectively, how much can he be used in the NFL? And I knew someone would come with the Moss thing; he wasn't off the field for two-thirds of the plays. Rest when you're on the sideline, and if you're supposed to be rotational anyway, ask to come out if you can't give effort. I would take him later, and I'd like to have him on my team, but picking a guy at 12 to play one-third of the snaps---and not the most critical snaps---seems dicey.


It worked for Georgia!

I knew you'd take the Moss plays off ratio literally. Which BTW is three-quarters, not two-thirds.


If this Davis guy can line up for a play, not move a muscle after the ball is snapped, but still draw 3-4 blockers freeing up other defenders, I say draft him.
Post #: 561
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:06:24 AM   
bohumm

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

But if that's how he was used in college, when they run more and pass less effectively, how much can he be used in the NFL? And I knew someone would come with the Moss thing; he wasn't off the field for two-thirds of the plays. Rest when you're on the sideline, and if you're supposed to be rotational anyway, ask to come out if you can't give effort. I would take him later, and I'd like to have him on my team, but picking a guy at 12 to play one-third of the snaps---and not the most critical snaps---seems dicey.


It worked for Georgia!

I knew you'd take the Moss plays off ratio literally. Which BTW is three-quarters, not two-thirds.

I was saying Davis was off the field for two-thirds of the plays, and then taking plays off beyond that when he's on the field. And Georgia was stacked, and not playing against NFL teams. In today's NFL, with Davis off the field in nickel, even if his approach to conditioning changes (a dangerous assumption), he's not impacting the pass defense to a degree that merits choosing him at 12. Mark's point about occupying blockers only applies on base downs, which KOC and Donnatel have both said will be the minority of snaps.

If they choose him, he's my guy. But it doesn't align with what would seem to be the best use of a resource like the 12th pick.
Post #: 562
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:08:59 AM   
bohumm

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

The NFL today is all about thriving in the passing offense and stopping the other team's passing offense. The run matters too, but to a much lesser extent. So teambuilding is about how to accomplish those things. If you pick at 12, you have the chance to get a gamechanger in one of those realms. Getting an elite WR, CB, or Edge on a five-year contract is what the Vikings need to do.


Earlier you were proclaiming BPA.

BPA at one of the premium positions (CB, WR, Edge, QB), with a slight bump for a position of great need like CB this year.
Post #: 563
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:14:01 AM   
bohumm

 

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The way it seems to me today, given that I think the top CBs will be gone, is that Olave is my guy because of his already elite route running and speed. Kirk does better when guys get clear separation, and he can do that from jump according to most of the stuff I've read. Wilson and Williams seem like they'll be gone, but if not I'm good with either of those as well. If they love an Edge that falls to them I could see that as well. McDuffie is a wild card because I don't know if he's elite, bunk, or something in between.

Today, give me Olave.
Post #: 564
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:44:06 AM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

But if that's how he was used in college, when they run more and pass less effectively, how much can he be used in the NFL? And I knew someone would come with the Moss thing; he wasn't off the field for two-thirds of the plays. Rest when you're on the sideline, and if you're supposed to be rotational anyway, ask to come out if you can't give effort. I would take him later, and I'd like to have him on my team, but picking a guy at 12 to play one-third of the snaps---and not the most critical snaps---seems dicey.


It worked for Georgia!

I knew you'd take the Moss plays off ratio literally. Which BTW is three-quarters, not two-thirds.

I was saying Davis was off the field for two-thirds of the plays, and then taking plays off beyond that when he's on the field. And Georgia was stacked, and not playing against NFL teams. In today's NFL, with Davis off the field in nickel, even if his approach to conditioning changes (a dangerous assumption), he's not impacting the pass defense to a degree that merits choosing him at 12. Mark's point about occupying blockers only applies on base downs, which KOC and Donnatel have both said will be the minority of snaps.

If they choose him, he's my guy. But it doesn't align with what would seem to be the best use of a resource like the 12th pick.


In today's NFL, the Vikings were bottom feeders against the run. And before that they were gashed up the middle in the playoffs by SF to the tune of 186 yards. The regime should have an options to fix that.

He's not my #1 choice, but Davis should do well in the 3-4.
Post #: 565
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 10:49:34 AM   
bohumm

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

But if that's how he was used in college, when they run more and pass less effectively, how much can he be used in the NFL? And I knew someone would come with the Moss thing; he wasn't off the field for two-thirds of the plays. Rest when you're on the sideline, and if you're supposed to be rotational anyway, ask to come out if you can't give effort. I would take him later, and I'd like to have him on my team, but picking a guy at 12 to play one-third of the snaps---and not the most critical snaps---seems dicey.


It worked for Georgia!

I knew you'd take the Moss plays off ratio literally. Which BTW is three-quarters, not two-thirds.

I was saying Davis was off the field for two-thirds of the plays, and then taking plays off beyond that when he's on the field. And Georgia was stacked, and not playing against NFL teams. In today's NFL, with Davis off the field in nickel, even if his approach to conditioning changes (a dangerous assumption), he's not impacting the pass defense to a degree that merits choosing him at 12. Mark's point about occupying blockers only applies on base downs, which KOC and Donnatel have both said will be the minority of snaps.

If they choose him, he's my guy. But it doesn't align with what would seem to be the best use of a resource like the 12th pick.


In today's NFL, the Vikings were bottom feeders against the run. And before that they were gashed up the middle in the playoffs by SF to the tune of 186 yards. The regime should have an options to fix that.

He's not my #1 choice, but Davis should do well in the 3-4.

I also think he'll do well in the 3-4, but that will be the alignment on the minority of snaps, seemingly considerably so. That's why I would be reluctant to take him at 12. I'd be very interested to know how Donatell views the role/importance of the nose tackle in his scheme, and what his prototype is. I'm also curious about what a 3-4 DE should look/play like.
Post #: 566
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 11:00:45 AM   
Mark Anderson

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

The NFL today is all about thriving in the passing offense and stopping the other team's passing offense. The run matters too, but to a much lesser extent. So teambuilding is about how to accomplish those things. If you pick at 12, you have the chance to get a gamechanger in one of those realms. Getting an elite WR, CB, or Edge on a five-year contract is what the Vikings need to do.

When does Cousins struggle? When the IOL get pushed back into him.

I think with Davis, Philips, Watts, Lynch and Tomlinson, we could play like Tampa's D. Vea and Suh push up the middle and draw at least one double team, and the edge guys(Hunter, Z, Wonnum) clean up.


Which of those 5 guys are D. Vea and Suh?

Ranking them(collapsing pocket and drawing double teams)

1. Davis
2. Philips
3. Tomlinson
4. Watts
5. Lynch
Post #: 567
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 11:16:52 AM   
Tom Sykes

 

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The WR talk in here has gotten downright lusty. Its like everybody all of a sudden walked into talkvikes wearing wr beer goggles.

If you step back, on paper, 5 out of 5 secondary players are question marks or past their prime, two out of three IOL are flat out sub-par, our DTs last year vastly underperformed … I confess I’m not even sure who our DEs are (Phillips?, Watts? Wonnum is OLB?) … TE is a question mark (I like Smith but he’s a question mark) … DT and TE are under-valued and underrated because they do so much dirty work … we are thin everywhere except RB but OT is dangeeously thin.

As far as what we have under contract for 2022-2023 - WR, RB, Edge/OLB, ILB are the only positions ready for battle. We have no idea how things will get reconfigured by this Sept. much less next year so saying WR is critical for whatever future reasons … its just horniness.

Best player availabe … for players rated the same, secondary then iol then dt then de then ot then maybe te (nobody with 1-2 rd ranking).

< Message edited by Tom Sykes -- 4/24/2022 11:18:37 AM >
Post #: 568
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 11:17:19 AM   
Murph


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My Fantasy Vikings Big Board 2022

Pick 12 - 1st round

Not strickly a best player available but that is the most important factor in deciding the pick.

This pick is for the next 5-10 years in mind not to fill an immediate need. Slightly weighted up and tiebreakers for team need and premium postions.

1) Ahmad Gardner, CB
2) Derek Stingley Jr., CB
3) Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE
4) Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE
5) Jameson Williams, WR

If these 5 players are all gone at 12; I'd try and trade back and get picks for next years draft.

6) Garrett Wilson, WR
7) Chris Olave, WR
8) Travon Walker, EDGE
9) Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE
10) Drake London, WR
11) Devin Lloyd, LB
12) Jordan Davis, DT

I really hope that we can make a trade or two and come away with picks for next year's draft where we can make a run at a QB we like or have more picks in a better class.

Kind of where my thinking currently is.

I'm really excited for the draft and can't wait to see what Kwesi does!

_____________________________

Hey Wilf's, let's build a "Perennial Super Bowl contender" not a "perennial playoff contender".
Post #: 569
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 11:22:00 AM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Murph

My Fantasy Vikings Big Board 2022

Pick 12 - 1st round

Not strickly a best player available but that is the most important factor in deciding the pick.

This pick is for the next 5-10 years in mind not to fill an immediate need. Slightly weighted up and tiebreakers for team need and premium postions.

1) Ahmad Gardner, CB
2) Derek Stingley Jr., CB
3) Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE
4) Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE
5) Jameson Williams, WR

If these 5 players are all gone at 12; I'd try and trade back and get picks for next years draft.

6) Garrett Wilson, WR
7) Chris Olave, WR
8) Travon Walker, EDGE
9) Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE
10) Drake London, WR
11) Devin Lloyd, LB
12) Jordan Davis, DT

I really hope that we can make a trade or two and come away with picks for next year's draft where we can make a run at a QB we like or have more picks in a better class.

Kind of where my thinking currently is.

I'm really excited for the draft and can't wait to see what Kwesi does!

Good sane approach. I could bicker over specific players but my own preferences change every 5 minutes.
Post #: 570
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 11:40:00 AM   
Brad H


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

This team is very thin in the defensive secondary and their two best players are on the back side of career mountain. They gave up 426 points last season. Anything short of addressing secondary needs should be considered GM malpractice.

With no change in regime, I really believe the defense would have been worse in 2022 than 2021. It was that big a mess. IMO we should keep that in mind when evaluating our progress on defense this off season. Not only are we trying to improve on 2021 but we had to stop the bleeding first, stabilize the patient, AND THEN start fixing the problems.

For one off season and very little resources for improvement ...

We put our FA attention on the front 7. Smart.

We squarely focused on the pass rush (keeping Hunter, signing Smith). Smart. [that also helps the secondary]

We changed schemes which will highlight our three best defenders (Kendricks, Hunter, Smith). Smart.

We didn't do anything dumb on offense (like shooting our complete FA wad at Scherff or worse, trading for Deebo) or ST (we invested minimal) which gave us just enough to bring in some 2nd-3rd tier defenders.

Step one for rebuilding our defense ... CHECK. [it's relative, we are not significantly better but we are better and heading in the right direction IMO]

Next, we addressed the secondary:

Peterson, Breeland, Alexander, Woods, Smith -for- Peterson, Dantzler, Sullivan, Bynum, Smith.

Step two for rebuilding our defense ... QUESTION MARK. [again, as we stand now, with no resources to improve, we are at least not worse, maybe slightly better]

The draft will be Step Three.

I agree with you that if we don't put significant draft attention on the secondary, the GM will be making a mistake.

I disagree with some of this. Without cover guys, you could put the top talent in the league up front and it wouldn't make us a good defense. It is a different era. The quarterbacks aren't pocket passers any more. It's a two-step drop and the ball is gone. That or the QB takes off. If an offense that is running crisply, you could have the quickest guy off the line and it wouldn't make a difference. What is important in 2022 is to have athletic guys up front (for containment) and great cover guys.

One of the teams that spent more money than anyone in the past 8-10 years up front on defense was Houston. They had Watt, Wilfork and Clowney for about 3-4 years. Never won more than nine games with that combination. Why? They couldn't cover anybody. They were 7th, 8th and 11th in points against (in a division with Tennessee, Indy and JVille, none of which were any good). Not bad, but not what they thought they were getting when they spent a billion dollars on guys up front.

At the end of the day, you cannot win consistently with poor talent on the back end. That may have flown in 1975 or 1988, but not in 2022.

In 2021, Tampa Bay threw the ball 43.3 times-per-game. There were 14 teams that threw it more than 35 times-per-game (and that was a down year for passing). In 2008 the Saints threw it a league-high 39.8 times-per-game and there were six teams that threw it at least 35 times-per-game. It's a different game than it was 15 years ago.

With running quarterbacks being a thing, passing numbers have started to trend downwards. In 2016, three teams averaged over 40 passes-per-game and 21 teams averaged more than 35. That's why I say, you need athletes up front and guys that can cover on the back end.

At the end of the day, you have to be good everywhere on defense to be a great defense. I'm not asking for that. I just want to be competent at this point.

I really liked Peterson and Smith.............FIVE YEARS AGO!

At the end of the end of the day you have to be good on all levels of the defense to be good. Nobody disputes that.

CBs are critical. We’re hurting right now in that dept. (I am not sure how good Sullivan and Bynum will be … who we will draft, etc.). But … it doesnt matter how good your corners are if the QB has all day to throw or if the run game is effective .

Former passing game coordinator O’Connell has emphasized the front seven (so far) in FA … are you saying he’s an old zchool coach for not beefing up the secondary first? You think cutting edge Kwesi processes analytics similar to Zimmer-ball?

No. With only spare change in their pocket, I think they are trying to be efficient and thrifty, and approaching the D the right way.

We need competent CBs. No doubt.

DLine needs to be elite though. An elite DLine makes average corners above average. Giants upset undefeated Pats with an elite Dline. 85 Bears elite DLine, competent CBs who had to cover for 2 or 3 seconds.

Like Brad said, we have more running QBs now. All the more reason to have elite agile Edge Rushers who can catch them. Plus, you need monster DTs who take up 2 blockers so LBs have a free run.

Again, I wish you were right, but you aren't. An elite defensive lineman makes 15-22 sacks a year. An elite corner shuts down an elite wide receiver 35 times a game. You gotta have guys that can cover or your defense is doomed from the outset.

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!
Post #: 571
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 11:52:36 AM   
bohumm

 

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From: Altadena, CA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

The WR talk in here has gotten downright lusty. Its like everybody all of a sudden walked into talkvikes wearing wr beer goggles.

If you step back, on paper, 5 out of 5 secondary players are question marks or past their prime, two out of three IOL are flat out sub-par, our DTs last year vastly underperformed … I confess I’m not even sure who our DEs are (Phillips?, Watts? Wonnum is OLB?) … TE is a question mark (I like Smith but he’s a question mark) … DT and TE are under-valued and underrated because they do so much dirty work … we are thin everywhere except RB but OT is dangeeously thin.

As far as what we have under contract for 2022-2023 - WR, RB, Edge/OLB, ILB are the only positions ready for battle. We have no idea how things will get reconfigured by this Sept. much less next year so saying WR is critical for whatever future reasons … its just horniness.

Best player availabe … for players rated the same, secondary then iol then dt then de then ot then maybe te (nobody with 1-2 rd ranking).

If you're referring to me, I've been in on WR from the start, and got killed in here for it from the start. WR is a need this year because of the move toward more 3+WR formations, Theilen's health/career arc, and KJ's shortcomings as a WR2 (as seen when Theilen was absent last year) in spite of his clear appropriateness for WR3. It's not a void or a hole, but as Murphy said above, 12 is not just for this year, it's foundational. There is no IOL that merits even the remotest consideration at 12. The top CBs and Hamilton would be appropriate at 12 and I've already said I'd take them at 12 without hesitation. I think (but don't know) that the 3-4 DEs are last year's DTs, so Tomlinson, Lynch, Watts, Twyman, etc., and maybe Phillips, though someone in there must be the NT unless that is something they're still looking for.

IMO, BPA has to be weighted for importance of position to overall success and then, as you say, with tiebreakers to positions of need. And the draft is mostly about the long view, so how things fit into a 2-4 year plan is paramount.
Post #: 572
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 12:11:32 PM   
bohumm

 

Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Murph

My Fantasy Vikings Big Board 2022

Pick 12 - 1st round

Not strickly a best player available but that is the most important factor in deciding the pick.

This pick is for the next 5-10 years in mind not to fill an immediate need. Slightly weighted up and tiebreakers for team need and premium postions.

1) Ahmad Gardner, CB
2) Derek Stingley Jr., CB
3) Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE
4) Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE
5) Jameson Williams, WR

If these 5 players are all gone at 12; I'd try and trade back and get picks for next years draft.

6) Garrett Wilson, WR
7) Chris Olave, WR
8) Travon Walker, EDGE
9) Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE
10) Drake London, WR
11) Devin Lloyd, LB
12) Jordan Davis, DT

I really hope that we can make a trade or two and come away with picks for next year's draft where we can make a run at a QB we like or have more picks in a better class.

Kind of where my thinking currently is.

I'm really excited for the draft and can't wait to see what Kwesi does!

Good sane approach. I could bicker over specific players but my own preferences change every 5 minutes.

I also really like this approach to the pick at 12. BPA at premium positions with a shading toward need, and then a pivot at some point to more picks if you don't think you're getting enough value with what's available at 12, or if you have enough guys you like to get you to the pick you've swapped for without giving up much in the way of value. I also am hobbled by not knowing much about players in college and some echoes. London, for instance, I knock in part because of Mike Williams/Laquon Treadwell syndrome without having any idea if it's appropriate, and in part because Kirk has seemed reluctant to throw into situations where London's contested catch skills come into play (I want WRs with separation skills). All of that said, if the brass likes him, I like him. Same goes for Davis or anyone else. I'm willing to see them work their plan, which I'm not privy to, over the next 2-3 years. I'm also really interested to see where their priorities are, what kinds of players they seem to like at various positions, their adaptability, and their humility.
Post #: 573
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 12:36:16 PM   
Mark Anderson

 

Posts: 12164
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quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

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ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

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ORIGINAL: bohumm

But if that's how he was used in college, when they run more and pass less effectively, how much can he be used in the NFL? And I knew someone would come with the Moss thing; he wasn't off the field for two-thirds of the plays. Rest when you're on the sideline, and if you're supposed to be rotational anyway, ask to come out if you can't give effort. I would take him later, and I'd like to have him on my team, but picking a guy at 12 to play one-third of the snaps---and not the most critical snaps---seems dicey.


It worked for Georgia!

I knew you'd take the Moss plays off ratio literally. Which BTW is three-quarters, not two-thirds.

I was saying Davis was off the field for two-thirds of the plays, and then taking plays off beyond that when he's on the field. And Georgia was stacked, and not playing against NFL teams. In today's NFL, with Davis off the field in nickel, even if his approach to conditioning changes (a dangerous assumption), he's not impacting the pass defense to a degree that merits choosing him at 12. Mark's point about occupying blockers only applies on base downs, which KOC and Donnatel have both said will be the minority of snaps.

If they choose him, he's my guy. But it doesn't align with what would seem to be the best use of a resource like the 12th pick.


In today's NFL, the Vikings were bottom feeders against the run. And before that they were gashed up the middle in the playoffs by SF to the tune of 186 yards. The regime should have an options to fix that.

He's not my #1 choice, but Davis should do well in the 3-4.

I also think he'll do well in the 3-4, but that will be the alignment on the minority of snaps, seemingly considerably so. That's why I would be reluctant to take him at 12. I'd be very interested to know how Donatell views the role/importance of the nose tackle in his scheme, and what his prototype is. I'm also curious about what a 3-4 DE should look/play like.

When I think of the Steelers and Patriots 3-4s, I thought that the 2 OLBs(in our case, Hunter and Z) were basically in a two point stance the majority of the time. With two 5 technique DEs and a NT. So they would rush 5 guys alot of the time but occasionally an OLB would drop back in coverage.

Maybe Donatell has a more 50-50 or 60-40 approach with 3-4 and 4-3.
Post #: 574
RE: 2022 NFL draft - 4/24/2022 12:43:52 PM   
Mark Anderson

 

Posts: 12164
Joined: 9/1/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

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ORIGINAL: Brad H

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ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

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ORIGINAL: Brad H

This team is very thin in the defensive secondary and their two best players are on the back side of career mountain. They gave up 426 points last season. Anything short of addressing secondary needs should be considered GM malpractice.

With no change in regime, I really believe the defense would have been worse in 2022 than 2021. It was that big a mess. IMO we should keep that in mind when evaluating our progress on defense this off season. Not only are we trying to improve on 2021 but we had to stop the bleeding first, stabilize the patient, AND THEN start fixing the problems.

For one off season and very little resources for improvement ...

We put our FA attention on the front 7. Smart.

We squarely focused on the pass rush (keeping Hunter, signing Smith). Smart. [that also helps the secondary]

We changed schemes which will highlight our three best defenders (Kendricks, Hunter, Smith). Smart.

We didn't do anything dumb on offense (like shooting our complete FA wad at Scherff or worse, trading for Deebo) or ST (we invested minimal) which gave us just enough to bring in some 2nd-3rd tier defenders.

Step one for rebuilding our defense ... CHECK. [it's relative, we are not significantly better but we are better and heading in the right direction IMO]

Next, we addressed the secondary:

Peterson, Breeland, Alexander, Woods, Smith -for- Peterson, Dantzler, Sullivan, Bynum, Smith.

Step two for rebuilding our defense ... QUESTION MARK. [again, as we stand now, with no resources to improve, we are at least not worse, maybe slightly better]

The draft will be Step Three.

I agree with you that if we don't put significant draft attention on the secondary, the GM will be making a mistake.

I disagree with some of this. Without cover guys, you could put the top talent in the league up front and it wouldn't make us a good defense. It is a different era. The quarterbacks aren't pocket passers any more. It's a two-step drop and the ball is gone. That or the QB takes off. If an offense that is running crisply, you could have the quickest guy off the line and it wouldn't make a difference. What is important in 2022 is to have athletic guys up front (for containment) and great cover guys.

One of the teams that spent more money than anyone in the past 8-10 years up front on defense was Houston. They had Watt, Wilfork and Clowney for about 3-4 years. Never won more than nine games with that combination. Why? They couldn't cover anybody. They were 7th, 8th and 11th in points against (in a division with Tennessee, Indy and JVille, none of which were any good). Not bad, but not what they thought they were getting when they spent a billion dollars on guys up front.

At the end of the day, you cannot win consistently with poor talent on the back end. That may have flown in 1975 or 1988, but not in 2022.

In 2021, Tampa Bay threw the ball 43.3 times-per-game. There were 14 teams that threw it more than 35 times-per-game (and that was a down year for passing). In 2008 the Saints threw it a league-high 39.8 times-per-game and there were six teams that threw it at least 35 times-per-game. It's a different game than it was 15 years ago.

With running quarterbacks being a thing, passing numbers have started to trend downwards. In 2016, three teams averaged over 40 passes-per-game and 21 teams averaged more than 35. That's why I say, you need athletes up front and guys that can cover on the back end.

At the end of the day, you have to be good everywhere on defense to be a great defense. I'm not asking for that. I just want to be competent at this point.

I really liked Peterson and Smith.............FIVE YEARS AGO!

At the end of the end of the day you have to be good on all levels of the defense to be good. Nobody disputes that.

CBs are critical. We’re hurting right now in that dept. (I am not sure how good Sullivan and Bynum will be … who we will draft, etc.). But … it doesnt matter how good your corners are if the QB has all day to throw or if the run game is effective .

Former passing game coordinator O’Connell has emphasized the front seven (so far) in FA … are you saying he’s an old zchool coach for not beefing up the secondary first? You think cutting edge Kwesi processes analytics similar to Zimmer-ball?

No. With only spare change in their pocket, I think they are trying to be efficient and thrifty, and approaching the D the right way.

We need competent CBs. No doubt.

DLine needs to be elite though. An elite DLine makes average corners above average. Giants upset undefeated Pats with an elite Dline. 85 Bears elite DLine, competent CBs who had to cover for 2 or 3 seconds.

Like Brad said, we have more running QBs now. All the more reason to have elite agile Edge Rushers who can catch them. Plus, you need monster DTs who take up 2 blockers so LBs have a free run.

Again, I wish you were right, but you aren't. An elite defensive lineman makes 15-22 sacks a year. An elite corner shuts down an elite wide receiver 35 times a game. You gotta have guys that can cover or your defense is doomed from the outset.

It would be nice to get a 15-22 sack guy but I'm talking about the DLine as a whole. We need 6-8 guys who can get us 40-45 sacks a year.

Of course we can't run guys like Alexander and Breeland out there and expect to be a competent pass defense. We need to draft 2 corners and probably grab another 2 UDFA CBs.
Post #: 575
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