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RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 1:16:15 PM

Todd M

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Joined: 7/14/2007
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If everyone in the world started flipping a coin and only those rolling heads or tails continually got to keep flipping how high of a number could we get to before the game is over?

At some point there’s got to be a # you’d be willing to bet your life the next flip would be opposite.

Post #: 3451

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 1:24:19 PM

David F.

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Joined: 12/31/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If everyone in the world started flipping a coin and only those rolling heads or tails continually got to keep flipping how high of a number could we get to before the game is over?

At some point there’s got to be a # you’d be willing to bet your life the next flip would be opposite.

I just tried to learn about this via a google search. YUCK! Can someone just give an answer in plain English? No. I'm looking for something like "in a billion coin tosses you could expect a run of 30 heads in a row twice or three times and the longest one our simulation saw was 42" but instead I get site after site after site trying to be super smartypantses with formulas and theory and what have you. Dang it I was really curious about it too.

And yes - the odds of heads is still 50/50 even after 10, 20, or 50 heads in a row but you better believe I'm betting tails on the next toss (assuming a fair coin).

< Message edited by David F. -- 10/18/2023 1:25:30 PM >

_____________________________

I wouldn't give ANY qb $30-50+ mil unless that QB had won me a Super Bowl. Did you win a Super Bowl on your rookie deal? Yes? Great! Here's your hugenormous contract. F it let's just run victory laps and love life. No? Good luck. Next!

Post #: 3452

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 1:29:31 PM

ronhextall

Posts: 6271
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If everyone in the world started flipping a coin and only those rolling heads or tails continually got to keep flipping how high of a number could we get to before the game is over?

At some point there’s got to be a # you’d be willing to bet your life the next flip would be opposite.

That's why casinos put the last several roulette results on a display. Sucks people into thinking "can't be red again, due for a green, etc..."

Post #: 3453

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 1:53:41 PM

Phil Riewer

Posts: 27446
Joined: 8/24/2007
From: MN
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty
That is attaching yourself too much to recent history.
To me, if the top prospect has been all misses a whole bunch in a row, the better the chances this one will be a hit.
But since I view Lawrence as a hit, that slightly reduces the chances Williams will be a hit. I just like what I have seen with the variety of throws Williams has been shown to make. I would take my chances on him.

So if your rational is to draft a top 3 QB to win a SB....how are you doing in recent history? I have heard what you said about Pinkett and now Williams. Yet I see qbs like Mahomes and Hurts who go much later do more damage in the postseason.

Lawrence, Fields, Zack Wilson, Rosen, Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, and others are just examples of how spending a ton of capital and not gettting what you want as a end result. (Worse than Kirk)

Mahomes, Josh Allen, Hurts, Early Russell Wilson, and Herbert are great examples of reasons not to trade way up and still get what you want as an end result.

My dad used to have a coin collection; shiny coins aren't the best always. Looking at QBs that have been thru some adversity like Hurts (multiple teams), Russ Wilson (Split time with baseball, multiple teams), Herbert and even Mahomes (Split time with baseball)....probably puts you on Penix, Nix..type.

< Message edited by Phil Riewer -- 10/18/2023 2:12:16 PM >

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Post #: 3454

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 2:10:12 PM

Todd M

Posts: 40698
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If everyone in the world started flipping a coin and only those rolling heads or tails continually got to keep flipping how high of a number could we get to before the game is over?

At some point there’s got to be a # you’d be willing to bet your life the next flip would be opposite.

I just tried to learn about this via a google search. YUCK! Can someone just give an answer in plain English? No. I'm looking for something like "in a billion coin tosses you could expect a run of 30 heads in a row twice or three times and the longest one our simulation saw was 42" but instead I get site after site after site trying to be super smartypantses with formulas and theory and what have you. Dang it I was really curious about it too.

And yes - the odds of heads is still 50/50 even after 10, 20, or 50 heads in a row but you better believe I'm betting tails on the next toss (assuming a fair coin).

Just like playing the lottery because ‘someone wins’ I think you can get too focused on the poor smuck that didn’t get the payoff on the 51st flip. That’s got too pay off at a pretty good rate.

Post #: 3455

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 2:11:33 PM

jbusse

Posts: 1309
Joined: 9/11/2013
From: Atlanta, GA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If everyone in the world started flipping a coin and only those rolling heads or tails continually got to keep flipping how high of a number could we get to before the game is over?

At some point there’s got to be a # you’d be willing to bet your life the next flip would be opposite.

It's 33 flips on average. Taking the world population as 8,045,311,447, everyone stays in the game after the first flip (because you say either a string of heads or tails is OK). Thereafter, with each flip, the 8 billion number is cut in half, since there is a 50% probability that someone who had been flipping all heads gets another heads (similarly for the tails flippers):

Flip # - # people remaining
1 - 8,045,311,447
2 - 4,022,655,724
3 - 2,011,327,862
4 - 1,005,663,931
5 - 502,831,965
6 - 251,415,983
7 - 125,707,991
8 - 62,853,996
9 - 31,426,998
10 - 15,713,499
11 - 7,856,749
12 - 3,928,375
13 - 1,964,187
14 - 982,094
15 - 491,047
16 - 245,523
17 - 122,762
18 - 61,381
19 - 30,690
20 - 15,345
21 - 7,673
22 - 3,836
23 - 1,918
24 - 959
25 - 480
26 - 240
27 - 120
28 - 60
29 - 30
30 - 15
31 - 7
32 - 4
33 - 2

After the 33rd flip, we would expect one to have flipped all heads and one to have flipped all tails.

Post #: 3456

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 2:19:24 PM

jbusse

Posts: 1309
Joined: 9/11/2013
From: Atlanta, GA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: jbusse

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If everyone in the world started flipping a coin and only those rolling heads or tails continually got to keep flipping how high of a number could we get to before the game is over?

At some point there’s got to be a # you’d be willing to bet your life the next flip would be opposite.

It's 33 flips on average. Taking the world population as 8,045,311,447, everyone stays in the game after the first flip (because you say either a string of heads or tails is OK). Thereafter, with each flip, the 8 billion number is cut in half, since there is a 50% probability that someone who had been flipping all heads gets another heads (similarly for the tails flippers):

Flip # - # people remaining
1 - 8,045,311,447
2 - 4,022,655,724
3 - 2,011,327,862
4 - 1,005,663,931
5 - 502,831,965
6 - 251,415,983
7 - 125,707,991
8 - 62,853,996
9 - 31,426,998
10 - 15,713,499
11 - 7,856,749
12 - 3,928,375
13 - 1,964,187
14 - 982,094
15 - 491,047
16 - 245,523
17 - 122,762
18 - 61,381
19 - 30,690
20 - 15,345
21 - 7,673
22 - 3,836
23 - 1,918
24 - 959
25 - 480
26 - 240
27 - 120
28 - 60
29 - 30
30 - 15
31 - 7
32 - 4
33 - 2

After the 33rd flip, we would expect one to have flipped all heads and one to have flipped all tails.

Correction, on the 34th flip, expect either the all heads flipper or the all tails flipper to drop out, leaving one remaining. So 34 flips.

Post #: 3457

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 2:41:44 PM

David F.

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Joined: 12/31/2007
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See? Now that’s the type of answer I was looking for. Thanks! Now I understand that its highly unlikely that a scenario would play out perfectly by the odds like that but at least it gives me some idea of what the numbers could look like.

_____________________________

I wouldn't give ANY qb $30-50+ mil unless that QB had won me a Super Bowl. Did you win a Super Bowl on your rookie deal? Yes? Great! Here's your hugenormous contract. F it let's just run victory laps and love life. No? Good luck. Next!

Post #: 3458

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 5:37:21 PM

kevinemmer

Posts: 4659
Joined: 7/16/2007
From: Bozeman, MT
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty
Yes, If Caleb goes back to playing insanely well, there is very little chance the Vikings get him.
But with just the right amount of Fields playing well, and Caleb having a few off days, the Vikings can draft Caleb.

Right! Short of a death certificate ... we're all in!

I thought the same of Lawrence, Wilson and Fields....now look at them.
Anyone that says Mahomes in the next reply shall have to repeat or write it on a chalkboard 50 times "11 teams passed on him" and "Andy Reid sat him a year" before they say anything else.
There are a ton of QBs available next year....no reason to get too attached.....draft one in the 1st and one in the 4th.

Thumbnail Image

Lawrence is panning out. The year with that dimwit college coach set him back but he's on a good path now.

If you look at all the hype of those that year; Hurts is still the best of the bunch....2nd round pick. Rule again is don't attach youself to the shiniest college qb....it has wrecked Chicago (Trubisky then Fields) and others. Seen more teams that give up a ton outside of SF get hurt bad.

If you need one draft two.

I'd like to snag this kid.
I've watched him, he's a baller, and makes good decisions.
Dual threat.
Maybe lasts to MR Irrelevant?
I'd take him earlier

https://msubobcats.com/sports/football/roster/sean-chambers/5996

Post #: 3459

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 6:43:55 PM

Nate

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Joined: 9/10/2009
From: A Galaxy Far Far Away...
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I'd rather not mortgage the future drafts by trading up. Maybe move up 1 slot if we have our dream pick but otherwise it's too much of a gamble to risk a bad pick and have no way to recover quickly with early round draft capital traded away.

Penix, Nix, Daniels, McCarthy, maybe even Ewers later on, gotta get someone but we also have OL and DL to beef up among other needs.

Post #: 3460

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 7:16:13 PM

Bill Johanesen

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Status: offline

Trade players such as Cousins (if able) and Hunter for picks and ideally cap relief that can be rolled over to next season. Try to competitively bottom out. In the offseason, definitely release Harrison Smith and his $41 million remaining. Also Lowry ($0 dead cap) and Harrison Phillips. Draft QB then all defense. Get a couple of IOL in free agency.

Post #: 3461

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 8:29:53 PM

Daniel Lee Young

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Status: offline

Cousins has a no trade clause, that he will NEVER SET ASIDE..

WHY WOULD HE?

His money is guaranteed for years…

What team thinks the mind- numbingly slow sloth is “ the answer” as the missing piece to a deep playoff run..?

His past 12 years of history states, NOPE

< Message edited by Daniel Lee Young -- 10/18/2023 8:32:06 PM >

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**** you all.

Post #: 3462

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/18/2023 8:47:39 PM

marty

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The probabilities going in are always the same (50/50), but the results like the coin flip, the closer you get to a number like 33, where the same result has come up so many times in a row, eventually the odds become strong it will go the other way, not going in, but in retrospect.

Just like so many years of a Black QB or Dome team not winning a Super Bowl, eventually they do so. Especially if the number of them increases.

Eventually a Heisman winning QB will win a Super Bowl, or another #1 pick at QB will win a Super Bowl, or a USC will be good

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!

Post #: 3463

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 5:17:16 AM

Phil Riewer

Posts: 27446
Joined: 8/24/2007
From: MN
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

Cousins has a no trade clause, that he will NEVER SET ASIDE..

WHY WOULD HE?

His money is guaranteed for years…

What team thinks the mind- numbingly slow sloth is “ the answer” as the missing piece to a deep playoff run..?

His past 12 years of history states, NOPE

It isn’t always about trading Kirk. We have Hall already, draft two more next year and get the comp pick for Kirk when signs as a FA.

_____________________________

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Post #: 3464

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 7:06:53 AM

marty

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I am open to other QBs not named Caleb, hopefully the Vikings are drafting high enough to get a good one.

I agree that sacrificing to move up probably isn't worth it.

There was a guy on my satellite radio that said this will be a great QB class, and he liked a guy most people weren't talking about, a QB from LSU, I think his last name was also Williams, I don't remember the 1st name.

I will probably continue to cheer for the Vikings to be competitive, and will cheer for the bottom feeders like Chicago, Carolina, Arizona, etc ...., to win games.

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!

Post #: 3465

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 8:59:04 AM

Pauldiercks1

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Joined: 2/1/2019
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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I am open to other QBs not named Caleb, hopefully the Vikings are drafting high enough to get a good one.

I agree that sacrificing to move up probably isn't worth it.

There was a guy on my satellite radio that said this will be a great QB class, and he liked a guy most people weren't talking about, a QB from LSU, I think his last name was also Williams, I don't remember the 1st name.

I will probably continue to cheer for the Vikings to be competitive, and will cheer for the bottom feeders like Chicago, Carolina, Arizona, etc ...., to win games.

Yes Hopefully we get a good QB. These two wins are killing us. Pretty much like I said before the season started. For this team ,wins are the last thing we need. That was obvious before the time ran out on the Giants game last season. If you are not a contender there is soo much value in a loss.

Post #: 3466

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 9:15:58 AM

Daniel Lee Young

Posts: 14030
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

Cousins has a no trade clause, that he will NEVER SET ASIDE..

WHY WOULD HE?

His money is guaranteed for years…

What team thinks the mind- numbingly slow sloth is “ the answer” as the missing piece to a deep playoff run..?

His past 12 years of history states, NOPE

It isn’t always about trading Kirk. We have Hall already, draft two more next year and get the comp pick for Kirk when signs as a FA.

Since you have Johansson on BLOCK, you would not know I was responding to the posit, (look it up, it’s not a spelling error) he made to trade cousins, no more no less..

Fixing this team obviously, to me, starts with getting RID of KFC…

which will not happen this season, ( NTC), and if he walk after this season, god forbid the STANS get an extension with MORE guaranteed money, again…). which I SinCerly hope he does… we are still on the hook for over 20$ MILLION in cap money..

I’m all in on drafting a top 5 Qb, every ****ing year untill we get out of the one and done playoff rut we have been in, for the past 14 seasons..

There have been at least two generations of fans who have never seen a “ VIKINGS VS Xxxxxxxx in SUPERBOWL ????????…

My ****ing Alzheimer’s is due to kick in.. I hope the first thing I forget is the KFC failure era of Vikings football..

The OTHER talent on the teams he has “lead” were good enough to win, just not when losing was not an option… like throwing OOB on fourth down , or well short of the sticks..ON FOURTH DOWN IN THE PLAYOFFS….

KFC is and always will be “not capable of winning it all”

Prove me wrong, and I’ll eat crow..

Last season I was willing to debase myself, publicly, if he could do what all you KFC cult members say he can do…win a super bowl…

Who won those “bet the farm”.. bets..

I own the Stans…

KFC can’t be off the Vikings roster then dead cap list fast enough for me AND A LOT OF OTHERS, who are Les vocal about it.

< Message edited by Daniel Lee Young -- 10/19/2023 9:34:52 AM >

_____________________________

**** you all.

Post #: 3467

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 10:17:26 AM

Tom Sykes

Posts: 5872
Joined: 7/27/2007
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I am open to other QBs not named Caleb, hopefully the Vikings are drafting high enough to get a good one.

I agree that sacrificing to move up probably isn't worth it.

There was a guy on my satellite radio that said this will be a great QB class, and he liked a guy most people weren't talking about, a QB from LSU, I think his last name was also Williams, I don't remember the 1st name.

I will probably continue to cheer for the Vikings to be competitive, and will cheer for the bottom feeders like Chicago, Carolina, Arizona, etc ...., to win games.

Right … hopefully the Bears pull a draft day Tice gaffe and accidentally take Williams from LSU instead of USC.

One more scenario for Caleb to fall into our lap.

Keep ‘em coming Marty, your scenarios are getting more clever as we go along!

Post #: 3468

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 10:31:15 AM

Nate

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Joined: 9/10/2009
From: A Galaxy Far Far Away...
Status: offline

I'd like to see the universe swing some positive Karma our way for a change. Like the first 7 teams in front of us all can't get to the podium fast enough so we draft Caleb at #8 in an unprecedented level of systemic failure. Then, on our way to Title Town, we break the Saints QB and rush for 7TDs in the win, we trounce Dallas with a fitting "shove the CB out of bounds" long bomb with no flags to seal the win, and then annihilate the Chiefs while sipping cool Gatorade from the sidelines in an hugely satisfying first Superbowl win. Let's get that 34th flip to be tails...

Post #: 3469

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 10:34:14 AM

Bill Johanesen

Posts: 28651
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I am open to other QBs not named Caleb, hopefully the Vikings are drafting high enough to get a good one.

I agree that sacrificing to move up probably isn't worth it.

There was a guy on my satellite radio that said this will be a great QB class, and he liked a guy most people weren't talking about, a QB from LSU, I think his last name was also Williams, I don't remember the 1st name.

I will probably continue to cheer for the Vikings to be competitive, and will cheer for the bottom feeders like Chicago, Carolina, Arizona, etc ...., to win games.

Right … hopefully the Bears pull a draft day Tice gaffe and accidentally take Williams from LSU instead of USC.

One more scenario for Caleb to fall into our lap.

Keep ‘em coming Marty, your scenarios are getting more clever as we go along!

The LSU QB is Jayden Daniels, but Marty can still sway himself enough to believe his name is Williams.

< Message edited by Bill Johanesen -- 10/19/2023 10:37:16 AM >

Post #: 3470

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 10:41:21 AM

Ricky J

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Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline

sd

< Message edited by Ricky J -- 10/19/2023 10:46:46 AM >

Post #: 3471

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 10:59:27 AM

ronhextall

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Joined: 7/19/2007
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How many currently active NFL QB's have won a Super Bowl as the starting QB?

Mahomes, Stafford, and Wilson are it I believe.

Nobody would trade a box of practice balls for Stafford or Wilson at this point.

I find that to be a crazy factoid.

Post #: 3472

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 11:22:35 AM

marty

Posts: 13049
Joined: 12/28/2007
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For the Chicago game, I started out cheering against the Vikings (and got excited when Carolina was up 14-0 over the Dolphins. But I couldn't sustain being against the Vikings, and felt happy they won the game in the 2nd half.

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SKOL to the BOWL !!!

Post #: 3473

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 11:23:37 AM

Ricky J

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Joined: 7/19/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ronhextall

How many currently active NFL QB's have won a Super Bowl as the starting QB?

Mahomes, Stafford, and Wilson are it I believe.

Nobody would trade a box of practice balls for Stafford or Wilson at this point.

I find that to be a crazy factoid.

Correct.

31 teams you could argue don't have a QB that can win it. No?

Post #: 3474

RE: General Vikes Talk - 10/19/2023 11:24:59 AM

marty

Posts: 13049
Joined: 12/28/2007
Status: offline

However, I really have pretty much given up on this season, and I want the Vikings picking near the top of the draft.

My plan is action is to cheer for the Vikings for the 1st 3 quarters, and if it's a close game in the 4th quarter (which they usually are), hope they choke at the end.

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!

Post #: 3475