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RE: 2024 Draft

 
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RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 11:10:47 AM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Murph

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Up to 3 for Maye seems like the most likely scenarios.

I don’t see a way Chicago and Washington move from their spots but New England likely will with Daniels off the board.


I still say if you want #3, you're going to have to get #5 first.

3 to 11 is too far of a drop.


Maybe they're working on a 3 team trade?

Vikings, Patriots and Chargers?

According to Draftech, 11 & 23 gets you to #5 with 310 value points to spare. I'm not advocating leaving 300+ points on the table, but a deal is certainly doable.

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Post #: 401
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 11:15:46 AM   
David Levine


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I think if you can do the swap, the 300 points don’t matter.

You can somewhat throw the chart out when trading that high - and for QBs.

That said, I don’t do the trade unless I have the trade up to 2 or 3 in place.

I’d probably rather have Penix at 11 and a player at 23 than just McCarthy at 5.

< Message edited by David Levine -- 3/17/2024 11:23:45 AM >
Post #: 402
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 11:20:17 AM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I think if you can do the swap, the 300 points don’t matter.

You can somewhat throw the chart out when trading that high - and for QBs.

That said, I don’t do the trade unless I have the trade up to 2 or 3 in place.

I’d probably rather have Penix at 11 and a player at 24 than just McCarthy at 5.

Agreed. I would rather pick at 11 & 23 than 5. A deal for #3 has to be in place.

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Post #: 403
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 11:30:38 AM   
TJSweens


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The more I think about it, I wouldn't worry about the points either. Denver could very well be trying the same thing.

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Post #: 404
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 11:41:57 AM   
Todd M

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I think if you can do the swap, the 300 points don’t matter.

You can somewhat throw the chart out when trading that high - and for QBs.

That said, I don’t do the trade unless I have the trade up to 2 or 3 in place.

I’d probably rather have Penix at 11 and a player at 23 than just McCarthy at 5.


If the plan falls through that’s a good contingency.

Pundits will say we way over paid but no way do I wait till 23 and get snaked.
Post #: 405
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 12:23:37 PM   
Chris Olson


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I think if you can do the swap, the 300 points don’t matter.

You can somewhat throw the chart out when trading that high - and for QBs.

That said, I don’t do the trade unless I have the trade up to 2 or 3 in place.

I’d probably rather have Penix at 11 and a player at 24 than just McCarthy at 5.

Agreed. I would rather pick at 11 & 23 than 5. A deal for #3 has to be in place.

Agree with both of you!

I also think a trade to 4 then 3 could be on the table as easily as 5 to 3, but yes, we need the trades in place to get to top 3 or don't do it

can't blow the trade up to 5 and settle for JJ McCarthy...that would feel like a huge blunder after such a promising set up
Post #: 406
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 12:39:10 PM   
marty


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I might be overvaluing the wow factor of Jayden Daniel's talent, and might be overlooking just pure desire to win.

The desire to win seems very strong in Maye and Williams, and that is despite both playing with subpar talent around them.

McCarthy and Nix just seem to rise to the occasion and make few mistakes, but they had good supporting casts, and they didn't get the repetitions of passing a lot.

Have I got this right ? These are just my guesses, based off other evaluations.

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Post #: 407
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 1:06:51 PM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I think if you can do the swap, the 300 points don’t matter.

You can somewhat throw the chart out when trading that high - and for QBs.

That said, I don’t do the trade unless I have the trade up to 2 or 3 in place.

I’d probably rather have Penix at 11 and a player at 24 than just McCarthy at 5.

Agreed. I would rather pick at 11 & 23 than 5. A deal for #3 has to be in place.

Agree with both of you!

I also think a trade to 4 then 3 could be on the table as easily as 5 to 3, but yes, we need the trades in place to get to top 3 or don't do it

can't blow the trade up to 5 and settle for JJ McCarthy...that would feel like a huge blunder after such a promising set up



Agree with all. But it could turn out that they think they need to get to #5 to get the QB they like. To some, stopping there may look like things blew up in their face when in fact their plan worked out great (unless they traded too high, but that will have been an unsolved mystery).
Post #: 408
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 1:37:19 PM   
Todd M

 

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Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.
Post #: 409
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 2:00:22 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.

If I knew Penix would somehow overcome the injury thing, I might put him before Maye and McCarthy but with that unknown I’m not sure I take before our 23rd pick.

McCarthy is such a huge gamble … I would take him at 5 but I would be rubbing the tummy of my little draft buddha.

But yes … if our draft falls somwhere on your list, I would give the prospect a benefit of the doubt and give Kwesi a lot of credit for making something happen … even if I think its too a reach.

This year so far feels like it is working on a different spectrum than the previous two.
Post #: 410
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 2:29:27 PM   
Todd M

 

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I can only imagine the scrambling going on if a healthy - see clean injury history Penix was entering this draft.

You don’t have to be a pessimist to worry about what taking him could end up being.

If the move we make is dubbed a reach or overpayment at least we played the game.


And it does seem as if Kwesi took a course or something…
Post #: 411
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 2:36:42 PM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.

If I knew Penix would somehow overcome the injury thing, I might put him before Maye and McCarthy but with that unknown I’m not sure I take before our 23rd pick.

McCarthy is such a huge gamble … I would take him at 5 but I would be rubbing the tummy of my little draft buddha.

But yes … if our draft falls somwhere on your list, I would give the prospect a benefit of the doubt and give Kwesi a lot of credit for making something happen … even if I think its too a reach.

This year so far feels like it is working on a different spectrum than the previous two.


But Penix wasn't injured the past two seasons. Conversely, he wasn't pressured much... maybe due to the OL and good WRs. Or maybe he processes things quickly and has a quick release. But....

IOW, I have no idea. Considering each QB, draft position, which QBs are taken, what kind of trade, how many trades, value, etc they are probably 1000s of permutations and almost all of them end up being subjective.

One day this fall it's very likely the rookie will trot onto the field. After 18 snaps we'll speculate on whether he's a boom or bust.
Post #: 412
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 2:52:56 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.

If I knew Penix would somehow overcome the injury thing, I might put him before Maye and McCarthy but with that unknown I’m not sure I take before our 23rd pick.

McCarthy is such a huge gamble … I would take him at 5 but I would be rubbing the tummy of my little draft buddha.

But yes … if our draft falls somwhere on your list, I would give the prospect a benefit of the doubt and give Kwesi a lot of credit for making something happen … even if I think its too a reach.

This year so far feels like it is working on a different spectrum than the previous two.


But Penix wasn't injured the past two seasons. Conversely, he wasn't pressured much... maybe due to the OL and good WRs. Or maybe he processes things quickly and has a quick release. But....

IOW, I have no idea. Considering each QB, draft position, which QBs are taken, what kind of trade, how many trades, value, etc they are probably 1000s of permutations and almost all of them end up being subjective.

One day this fall it's very likely the rookie will trot onto the field. After 18 snaps we'll speculate on whether he's a boom or bust.

I didn't know that. That's probably just me being susceptible to draft rumor mongering.

I had heard about an injury history and saw him get dinged up (but play) in the college championship so fell in with the lowing herd.

He has a truly wicked arm.

I don't really know a lot about the QBs, just what I'm hearing now ... I might as well be shuffling a six player deck of football cards.

But yes that won't stop me from hyperventilating this fall about Kwesi's stupidity if the we pick a QB and he starts off slow.

Which is totally unfair and inhumane and par on my course.
Post #: 413
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 2:55:09 PM   
David Levine


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Brett Kollmann:

Alright I did Maye’s game vs NC State.

Outside of a few throws that got away from him because of sloppy feet (emphasis on the words “a few”), there wasn’t a whole lot to be worried about imo.

If THAT is his worst game that is so concerning, then he’s still a top 3 pick imo.

Also if your OC’s best call against man coverage is mirrored hitches with a single crossing route by a receiver that doesn’t actually run good crossing routes, then idk what Drake is supposed to do about that.
Post #: 414
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 2:59:50 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I think if you can do the swap, the 300 points don’t matter.

You can somewhat throw the chart out when trading that high - and for QBs.

That said, I don’t do the trade unless I have the trade up to 2 or 3 in place.

I’d probably rather have Penix at 11 and a player at 24 than just McCarthy at 5.

Agreed. I would rather pick at 11 & 23 than 5. A deal for #3 has to be in place.

I agree also, but I don't want to trade up to 3 either.

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Post #: 415
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 3:01:11 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I think if you can do the swap, the 300 points don’t matter.

You can somewhat throw the chart out when trading that high - and for QBs.

That said, I don’t do the trade unless I have the trade up to 2 or 3 in place.

I’d probably rather have Penix at 11 and a player at 23 than just McCarthy at 5.


If the plan falls through that’s a good contingency.

Pundits will say we way over paid but no way do I wait till 23 and get snaked.

I'm totally happy to wait until 23 and risk getting snaked. If we don't get a QB this year there will be more next year. No big deal at all. BPA within reason.

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Post #: 416
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 3:02:59 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.

I still believe if we want Maye at 11 he's ours by standing pat.

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"So let it be written.
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Post #: 417
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 3:05:03 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.

If I knew Penix would somehow overcome the injury thing, I might put him before Maye and McCarthy but with that unknown I’m not sure I take before our 23rd pick.

McCarthy is such a huge gamble … I would take him at 5 but I would be rubbing the tummy of my little draft buddha.

But yes … if our draft falls somwhere on your list, I would give the prospect a benefit of the doubt and give Kwesi a lot of credit for making something happen … even if I think its too a reach.

This year so far feels like it is working on a different spectrum than the previous two.


But Penix wasn't injured the past two seasons. Conversely, he wasn't pressured much... maybe due to the OL and good WRs. Or maybe he processes things quickly and has a quick release. But....

IOW, I have no idea. Considering each QB, draft position, which QBs are taken, what kind of trade, how many trades, value, etc they are probably 1000s of permutations and almost all of them end up being subjective.

One day this fall it's very likely the rookie will trot onto the field. After 18 snaps we'll speculate on whether he's a boom or bust.

I didn't know that. That's probably just me being susceptible to draft rumor mongering.

I had heard about an injury history and saw him get dinged up (but play) in the college championship so fell in with the lowing herd.

He has a truly wicked arm.

I don't really know a lot about the QBs, just what I'm hearing now ... I might as well be shuffling a six player deck of football cards.

But yes that won't stop me from hyperventilating this fall about Kwesi's stupidity if the we pick a QB and he starts off slow.

Which is totally unfair and inhumane and par on my course.




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"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 418
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 3:08:28 PM   
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.


Agreed.

Daniels and Maye don’t make it past 3 - and they could flip-flop 2 and 3.

McCarthy goes no later than 6th to the Giants. But 4 or 5 are likely trade spots for him.

Penix probably doesn’t go before 11, but is long gone by 23.

Nix may still be there at 23, but if Penix goes in the top 15, some club with FOMO likely takes him before our pick.
Post #: 419
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 3:23:05 PM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Daniels @2
Maye @3
McCarthy @5
Penix @11

I’ll roll with whatever shakes out. I feel they’d pay for top choice but it takes a seller and a buyer. They’re putting in their best effort so it’ll be hard not to give them kudos.

If I knew Penix would somehow overcome the injury thing, I might put him before Maye and McCarthy but with that unknown I’m not sure I take before our 23rd pick.

McCarthy is such a huge gamble … I would take him at 5 but I would be rubbing the tummy of my little draft buddha.

But yes … if our draft falls somwhere on your list, I would give the prospect a benefit of the doubt and give Kwesi a lot of credit for making something happen … even if I think its too a reach.

This year so far feels like it is working on a different spectrum than the previous two.


But Penix wasn't injured the past two seasons. Conversely, he wasn't pressured much... maybe due to the OL and good WRs. Or maybe he processes things quickly and has a quick release. But....

IOW, I have no idea. Considering each QB, draft position, which QBs are taken, what kind of trade, how many trades, value, etc they are probably 1000s of permutations and almost all of them end up being subjective.

One day this fall it's very likely the rookie will trot onto the field. After 18 snaps we'll speculate on whether he's a boom or bust.

I didn't know that. That's probably just me being susceptible to draft rumor mongering.

I had heard about an injury history and saw him get dinged up (but play) in the college championship so fell in with the lowing herd.

He has a truly wicked arm.

I don't really know a lot about the QBs, just what I'm hearing now ... I might as well be shuffling a six player deck of football cards.

But yes that won't stop me from hyperventilating this fall about Kwesi's stupidity if the we pick a QB and he starts off slow.

Which is totally unfair and inhumane and par on my course.


Well, Penix had four season ending injuries before that so your concern is valid. He's played college ball for like ten years, so he and some of these QBs should look better than the traditional 21 year old types (Maye, McCarthy). Nix is as old as Darrisaw.

Guess the scouts factor that in some how.

< Message edited by Bill Johanesen -- 3/17/2024 3:24:35 PM >
Post #: 420
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 3:34:54 PM   
Bill Jandro

 

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If we're going to sell the farm we need to get the right guy. From the chatter Maye seems to be O'Connell's guy system wise.

Penix is the fall back option. His career could be shortened (like Bradfords) but he can really sling the football.

Not sure Nix has the arm strength but has some nice intangables.

I'd prefer to stand pat at 11 if we can't get one of the top 3.

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Post #: 421
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 4:07:27 PM   
David Levine


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Another really big factor:

There are 4 QBs and 3 WRs that are expected to go in the Top 8 picks.

AZ at 4 and LAC at 5 are both absolutely dying for a top WR.

That makes both of those teams less likely to trade down to 11 unless we're offering crazy value.

It also makes the Giants pick at 6 significantly more valuable than our 11 - because either team could trade down to 6 and guarantee a Top 3 WR still.

So Penix at 11 might be the most realistic option.

BUT...

I could easily see the Bears trading down from 9 to 12 or 13 to let the Broncos or Raiders poach our guy.
Post #: 422
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 4:20:22 PM   
Chris Olson


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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Another really big factor:

There are 4 QBs and 3 WRs that are expected to go in the Top 8 picks.

AZ at 4 and LAC at 5 are both absolutely dying for a top WR.

That makes both of those teams less likely to trade down to 11 unless we're offering crazy value.

It also makes the Giants pick at 6 significantly more valuable than our 11 - because either team could trade down to 6 and guarantee a Top 3 WR still.

So Penix at 11 might be the most realistic option.

BUT...

I could easily see the Bears trading down from 9 to 12 or 13 to let the Broncos or Raiders poach our guy.

I don't think we can consider standing pat at 11
Post #: 423
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 4:33:00 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Another really big factor:

There are 4 QBs and 3 WRs that are expected to go in the Top 8 picks.

AZ at 4 and LAC at 5 are both absolutely dying for a top WR.

That makes both of those teams less likely to trade down to 11 unless we're offering crazy value.

It also makes the Giants pick at 6 significantly more valuable than our 11 - because either team could trade down to 6 and guarantee a Top 3 WR still.

So Penix at 11 might be the most realistic option.

BUT...

I could easily see the Bears trading down from 9 to 12 or 13 to let the Broncos or Raiders poach our guy.

I don't think we can consider standing pat at 11

We don't have to draft a QB this year. More will be available next if this year doesn't work out. I personally feel this year will work out.

_____________________________

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So let it be done."
Post #: 424
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/17/2024 4:40:16 PM   
Todd M

 

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A chess match like we’ve maybe never seen.

The hard part is having faith in Kwesi. Not a lot of believers in his 2 years of work. But here he is in one of the most pivotal times making things happen. Make the right moves and get the right guy.

If he’s successful I sure as hell will flip and be a believer.

< Message edited by Todd M -- 3/17/2024 4:43:17 PM >
Post #: 425
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