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RE: 2024 Draft

 
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RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 8:03:44 PM   
Todd M

 

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Im ok if it goes Williams/Maye/Daniels 123. Get up to 5 with future draft stock intact and take JJ.
Post #: 576
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 8:07:09 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes
Its not that I won't back up my talk, its that you can't comprehend it. Or you 're too obtuse to respond.

Number of pro bowls ... the size of his FA contract ... those are secondary considerations for any fan desperate for playoff wins and competing for championships. How does Cousins rate using that formula?

Don't bother answering, there's no way for you to be honest about it. (not that it bothers you)

You can't base it on team success that is dependent on the team not the player. The Vikings are going to have a far better defense going forward. Pro Bowls is the best solution I could come up with. I can be honest. Why not Pro Bowls? It's a fair and non subjective criteria. I hope you would win. I want our draft pick to be the next Brady/Mahomes/Montana/Manning etc. I'm assuming our pick will be McCarthy so I hope he's better than Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 3/20/2024 8:29:47 PM >


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"So let it be written.
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Post #: 577
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 8:40:15 PM   
kgdabom

 

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I think this would be a fun exercise. Say who you think we will get in the first round and who you realistically hope we will get.
I think we get McCarthy.
I hope we get McCarthy and Murphy very optimistic I know, but it could happen.
More realistically Nix and Jackson Powers-Johnson. QB/C pair.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 578
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 8:49:41 PM   
Brad H


Posts: 22986
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

There was a joke apparently called Bubble Screen Bo....more information:

27.6% of Nix’s passing attempts were thrown behind the line of scrimmage with a completion rate of 95.5%. 39.4% of his passing attempts were between 0-9 yards downfield with a completion rate of 82.8%.

7.0 ADOT is pretty low and the only notable QB with a lower figure is Cade Klubnik at 6.9. UAB’s Jacob Zeno had CFB’s lowest ADOT at 5.5 yards. Highest in the P5 was Jalen Milroe at 13.9.

Other QB’s ADOT for reference:

Michael Penix: 11.3
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Quinn Ewers: 8.4
Carson Beck: 8.5
Shedeur Sanders: 8.5
JJ McCarthy: 10.3
Drake Maye: 11.0

Bo Nix still did incredibly well when throwing the ball greater than 10 yards. He had 26 TDs and 2 interceptions on those throws.

Silly and stupid. Why? Because Nix is running a pro-style offense.

Bo Nix's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6
Brock Purdy's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6

The second guy had the top passer-rating in the NFL in 2023. You gonna criticize him for completing nothing but short passes?

Again, doing some homework before posting is a great way of not making ones self look stupid. You need to quit finding the analysts that give you the opinions you want, and just look at the facts. It could go a long ways.

And even if he was running some sort of offense where an inordinate amount of passes were completed behind the line of scrimmage, Nix wasn't the one calling the plays. He just ran them. And for what it's worth, he ran them to near perfection. I don't see a problem with that.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 3/20/2024 8:59:11 PM >


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Post #: 579
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 9:52:25 PM   
marty


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I see what you mean Todd. I am going all over the place with QBs, hearing so many different viewpoints.

If you ranked QBs in accuracy or ball placement, and being clutch, you might end up ranking them:

1) McCarthy
2) Nix

Then a little gap, and the 2nd tier:

3) Williams
4) Daniels
5) Maye

But 3-5 seem to have a lot more splash plays.

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Post #: 580
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 9:59:24 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes
Its not that I won't back up my talk, its that you can't comprehend it. Or you 're too obtuse to respond.

Number of pro bowls ... the size of his FA contract ... those are secondary considerations for any fan desperate for playoff wins and competing for championships. How does Cousins rate using that formula?

Don't bother answering, there's no way for you to be honest about it. (not that it bothers you)

You can't base it on team success that is dependent on the team not the player. The Vikings are going to have a far better defense going forward. Pro Bowls is the best solution I could come up with. I can be honest. Why not Pro Bowls? It's a fair and non subjective criteria. I hope you would win. I want our draft pick to be the next Brady/Mahomes/Montana/Manning etc. I'm assuming our pick will be McCarthy so I hope he's better than Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix.

I don't agree that Pro Bowls are non subjective ... non-deserving players make the team all the time while deserving players are left off. (All Pros is closer to objective but still partly a popularity contest).

Even so, you get a hall pass for admitting that's what you could come up with.

To each their own.
Post #: 581
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 10:29:52 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33770
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

There was a joke apparently called Bubble Screen Bo....more information:

27.6% of Nix’s passing attempts were thrown behind the line of scrimmage with a completion rate of 95.5%. 39.4% of his passing attempts were between 0-9 yards downfield with a completion rate of 82.8%.

7.0 ADOT is pretty low and the only notable QB with a lower figure is Cade Klubnik at 6.9. UAB’s Jacob Zeno had CFB’s lowest ADOT at 5.5 yards. Highest in the P5 was Jalen Milroe at 13.9.

Other QB’s ADOT for reference:

Michael Penix: 11.3
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Quinn Ewers: 8.4
Carson Beck: 8.5
Shedeur Sanders: 8.5
JJ McCarthy: 10.3
Drake Maye: 11.0

Bo Nix still did incredibly well when throwing the ball greater than 10 yards. He had 26 TDs and 2 interceptions on those throws.

Silly and stupid. Why? Because Nix is running a pro-style offense.

Bo Nix's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6
Brock Purdy's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6

The second guy had the top passer-rating in the NFL in 2023. You gonna criticize him for completing nothing but short passes?

Again, doing some homework before posting is a great way of not making ones self look stupid. You need to quit finding the analysts that give you the opinions you want, and just look at the facts. It could go a long ways.

And even if he was running some sort of offense where an inordinate amount of passes were completed behind the line of scrimmage, Nix wasn't the one calling the plays. He just ran them. And for what it's worth, he ran them to near perfection. I don't see a problem with that.

Wow this is unprecedented. Brad and I thinking almost exactly alike.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 582
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 10:34:05 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33770
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes
Its not that I won't back up my talk, its that you can't comprehend it. Or you 're too obtuse to respond.

Number of pro bowls ... the size of his FA contract ... those are secondary considerations for any fan desperate for playoff wins and competing for championships. How does Cousins rate using that formula?

Don't bother answering, there's no way for you to be honest about it. (not that it bothers you)

You can't base it on team success that is dependent on the team not the player. The Vikings are going to have a far better defense going forward. Pro Bowls is the best solution I could come up with. I can be honest. Why not Pro Bowls? It's a fair and non subjective criteria. I hope you would win. I want our draft pick to be the next Brady/Mahomes/Montana/Manning etc. I'm assuming our pick will be McCarthy so I hope he's better than Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix.

I don't agree that Pro Bowls are non subjective ... non-deserving players make the team all the time while deserving players are left off. (All Pros is closer to objective but still partly a popularity contest).

Even so, you get a hall pass for admitting that's what you could come up with.

To each their own.

It's a non subjective criteria. In other words making or not making the Pro Bowl is simply a matter of fact. Who is deserving of pro bowls is subjective. Is Cousins a media darling? Is that why he makes the Pro Bowl? He's more of a whipping boy. You tell me a fair objective Criteria we could use for comparison. Of course since it would have to wait until the players in question have completed their careers we both may be dead before we could declare a winner.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 583
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/20/2024 11:36:17 PM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 40601
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: online
https://www.si.com/nfl/cardinals/news/arizona-cardinals-open-for-business-nfl-draft
Post #: 584
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 12:33:48 AM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes
Its not that I won't back up my talk, its that you can't comprehend it. Or you 're too obtuse to respond.

Number of pro bowls ... the size of his FA contract ... those are secondary considerations for any fan desperate for playoff wins and competing for championships. How does Cousins rate using that formula?

Don't bother answering, there's no way for you to be honest about it. (not that it bothers you)

You can't base it on team success that is dependent on the team not the player. The Vikings are going to have a far better defense going forward. Pro Bowls is the best solution I could come up with. I can be honest. Why not Pro Bowls? It's a fair and non subjective criteria. I hope you would win. I want our draft pick to be the next Brady/Mahomes/Montana/Manning etc. I'm assuming our pick will be McCarthy so I hope he's better than Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix.

I don't agree that Pro Bowls are non subjective ... non-deserving players make the team all the time while deserving players are left off. (All Pros is closer to objective but still partly a popularity contest).

Even so, you get a hall pass for admitting that's what you could come up with.

To each their own.

It's a non subjective criteria. In other words making or not making the Pro Bowl is simply a matter of fact. Who is deserving of pro bowls is subjective. Is Cousins a media darling? Is that why he makes the Pro Bowl? He's more of a whipping boy. You tell me a fair objective Criteria we could use for comparison. Of course since it would have to wait until the players in question have completed their careers we both may be dead before we could declare a winner.

A complete non sequitur. The pro bowl is barely more than fancy potato sack race participation ribbon.

Lets say you get selected Dec 23, 2022 because your team is 11-3 but then you go on to almost single-handedly get your team knocked out of its first playoff game ... its not much of a legitimate honor really.

Maybe if we called it the regular season pro bowl. But we don't which is a sham because the pro bowl should include the playoffs and SB when deciding the best players of any given year, don't you think?

Or, lets say you get into the pro bowl as an injury replacement fill-in, as Kirk did in 2016 (for Matt Ryan), 2017 (for Rogers), 2020 (for Rogers), 2022 (for Rogers).

But you go ahead and evaluate the greatness of QBs by their pro bowl appearances, be it starter or injury fill-in.

I'll continue to focus on what they can do for you in the playoffs.
Post #: 585
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 12:53:54 AM   
JT2

 

Posts: 13742
Joined: 2/15/2011
From: United States
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

There was a joke apparently called Bubble Screen Bo....more information:

27.6% of Nix’s passing attempts were thrown behind the line of scrimmage with a completion rate of 95.5%. 39.4% of his passing attempts were between 0-9 yards downfield with a completion rate of 82.8%.

7.0 ADOT is pretty low and the only notable QB with a lower figure is Cade Klubnik at 6.9. UAB’s Jacob Zeno had CFB’s lowest ADOT at 5.5 yards. Highest in the P5 was Jalen Milroe at 13.9.

Other QB’s ADOT for reference:

Michael Penix: 11.3
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Quinn Ewers: 8.4
Carson Beck: 8.5
Shedeur Sanders: 8.5
JJ McCarthy: 10.3
Drake Maye: 11.0

Bo Nix still did incredibly well when throwing the ball greater than 10 yards. He had 26 TDs and 2 interceptions on those throws.

Silly and stupid. Why? Because Nix is running a pro-style offense.

Bo Nix's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6
Brock Purdy's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6

The second guy had the top passer-rating in the NFL in 2023. You gonna criticize him for completing nothing but short passes?

Again, doing some homework before posting is a great way of not making ones self look stupid. You need to quit finding the analysts that give you the opinions you want, and just look at the facts. It could go a long ways.

And even if he was running some sort of offense where an inordinate amount of passes were completed behind the line of scrimmage, Nix wasn't the one calling the plays. He just ran them. And for what it's worth, he ran them to near perfection. I don't see a problem with that.


I appreciate your fact-based approach. Do you think you are consistent with that?

Darnold is a good get because he's a good guy? McCarthy sucks because of 15 minutes of play that you watched? Facts! Homework!

Right now you look the fool.

I do admire your ability to forget your legacy of misses. Carry on wise one.
Post #: 586
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 5:28:38 AM   
marty


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Joined: 12/28/2007
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Brady and Mahomes are judged as all time greats because of their playoff and Super Bowl success.

A Cousins supporter would never want to use that criteria, even though he has been on some pretty good regular season teams, and is supposedly going on one now.

You still get Cousins for the next 3 years, see how many playoff wins he racks up, and compare his playoff record to the Vikings QB drafted this year, after the same amount of seasons Kirk will have started.

So the bet concludes 15 years from now, would you take that bet ?

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!
Post #: 587
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 5:30:59 AM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 40601
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

I think this would be a fun exercise. Say who you think we will get in the first round and who you realistically hope we will get.
I think we get McCarthy.
I hope we get McCarthy and Murphy very optimistic I know, but it could happen.
More realistically Nix and Jackson Powers-Johnson. QB/C pair.


I’m close to settling in on McCarthy but I think we’re targeting Maye.

The Darnold/McCown Maye connection where the 2 watched and broke down every Maye HS game has me convinced he’s their guy.
Post #: 588
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 5:47:13 AM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 40601
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: online
As I posted the Cards are open for business. If it goes Williams/Maye/Daniels we can jump the Giants and get JJ. If we wait for 5 I think we get boxed out.

If Washington takes Daniels I think we go to 3 for Maye.

Delicious anticipation.
Post #: 589
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 6:04:26 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33770
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes
Its not that I won't back up my talk, its that you can't comprehend it. Or you 're too obtuse to respond.

Number of pro bowls ... the size of his FA contract ... those are secondary considerations for any fan desperate for playoff wins and competing for championships. How does Cousins rate using that formula?

Don't bother answering, there's no way for you to be honest about it. (not that it bothers you)

You can't base it on team success that is dependent on the team not the player. The Vikings are going to have a far better defense going forward. Pro Bowls is the best solution I could come up with. I can be honest. Why not Pro Bowls? It's a fair and non subjective criteria. I hope you would win. I want our draft pick to be the next Brady/Mahomes/Montana/Manning etc. I'm assuming our pick will be McCarthy so I hope he's better than Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix.

I don't agree that Pro Bowls are non subjective ... non-deserving players make the team all the time while deserving players are left off. (All Pros is closer to objective but still partly a popularity contest).

Even so, you get a hall pass for admitting that's what you could come up with.

To each their own.

It's a non subjective criteria. In other words making or not making the Pro Bowl is simply a matter of fact. Who is deserving of pro bowls is subjective. Is Cousins a media darling? Is that why he makes the Pro Bowl? He's more of a whipping boy. You tell me a fair objective Criteria we could use for comparison. Of course since it would have to wait until the players in question have completed their careers we both may be dead before we could declare a winner.

A complete non sequitur. The pro bowl is barely more than fancy potato sack race participation ribbon.

Lets say you get selected Dec 23, 2022 because your team is 11-3 but then you go on to almost single-handedly get your team knocked out of its first playoff game ... its not much of a legitimate honor really.

Maybe if we called it the regular season pro bowl. But we don't which is a sham because the pro bowl should include the playoffs and SB when deciding the best players of any given year, don't you think?

Or, lets say you get into the pro bowl as an injury replacement fill-in, as Kirk did in 2016 (for Matt Ryan), 2017 (for Rogers), 2020 (for Rogers), 2022 (for Rogers).

But you go ahead and evaluate the greatness of QBs by their pro bowl appearances, be it starter or injury fill-in.

I'll continue to focus on what they can do for you in the playoffs.

Injury replacement tarnishes the honor a bit. So far every time Kirk got in it was as an injury replacement. I didn't know that. Don't they take 3 from each conference? Or is it 4? Regardless you have to play pretty well to make it. If Rogers wasn't such a wimp and Kirk such an Ironman he wouldn't have made as many.

Is leading your team to 31 points singlehandedly knocking them out of a playoff game? Yeah on a tough play he didn't get a first down. He shouldn't of had to. How many points did our Def give up in that playoff game? Yet it was Kirk who single handedly got us knocked out. How was Kirk's protection on that play? Yet it was Kirk who single handedly got us knocked out. Kirk deserves 99% of the blame for us losing that game right?

If our draft pick becomes part of super bowl championships I will definitely give him some props for his participation. I'll hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 3/21/2024 6:16:50 AM >


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So let it be done."
Post #: 590
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 6:07:56 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33770
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

As I posted the Cards are open for business. If it goes Williams/Maye/Daniels we can jump the Giants and get JJ. If we wait for 5 I think we get boxed out.

If Washington takes Daniels I think we go to 3 for Maye.

Delicious anticipation.

I doubt that the Giants would trade up in pursuit of McCarthy. They may take him if he is available at their pick.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 591
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 7:07:11 AM   
Brad H


Posts: 22986
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

There was a joke apparently called Bubble Screen Bo....more information:

27.6% of Nix’s passing attempts were thrown behind the line of scrimmage with a completion rate of 95.5%. 39.4% of his passing attempts were between 0-9 yards downfield with a completion rate of 82.8%.

7.0 ADOT is pretty low and the only notable QB with a lower figure is Cade Klubnik at 6.9. UAB’s Jacob Zeno had CFB’s lowest ADOT at 5.5 yards. Highest in the P5 was Jalen Milroe at 13.9.

Other QB’s ADOT for reference:

Michael Penix: 11.3
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Quinn Ewers: 8.4
Carson Beck: 8.5
Shedeur Sanders: 8.5
JJ McCarthy: 10.3
Drake Maye: 11.0

Bo Nix still did incredibly well when throwing the ball greater than 10 yards. He had 26 TDs and 2 interceptions on those throws.

Silly and stupid. Why? Because Nix is running a pro-style offense.

Bo Nix's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6
Brock Purdy's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6

The second guy had the top passer-rating in the NFL in 2023. You gonna criticize him for completing nothing but short passes?

Again, doing some homework before posting is a great way of not making ones self look stupid. You need to quit finding the analysts that give you the opinions you want, and just look at the facts. It could go a long ways.

And even if he was running some sort of offense where an inordinate amount of passes were completed behind the line of scrimmage, Nix wasn't the one calling the plays. He just ran them. And for what it's worth, he ran them to near perfection. I don't see a problem with that.

Wow this is unprecedented. Brad and I thinking almost exactly alike.

Congratulations.

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!
Post #: 592
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 7:12:05 AM   
Brad H


Posts: 22986
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

There was a joke apparently called Bubble Screen Bo....more information:

27.6% of Nix’s passing attempts were thrown behind the line of scrimmage with a completion rate of 95.5%. 39.4% of his passing attempts were between 0-9 yards downfield with a completion rate of 82.8%.

7.0 ADOT is pretty low and the only notable QB with a lower figure is Cade Klubnik at 6.9. UAB’s Jacob Zeno had CFB’s lowest ADOT at 5.5 yards. Highest in the P5 was Jalen Milroe at 13.9.

Other QB’s ADOT for reference:

Michael Penix: 11.3
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Quinn Ewers: 8.4
Carson Beck: 8.5
Shedeur Sanders: 8.5
JJ McCarthy: 10.3
Drake Maye: 11.0

Bo Nix still did incredibly well when throwing the ball greater than 10 yards. He had 26 TDs and 2 interceptions on those throws.

Silly and stupid. Why? Because Nix is running a pro-style offense.

Bo Nix's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6
Brock Purdy's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6

The second guy had the top passer-rating in the NFL in 2023. You gonna criticize him for completing nothing but short passes?

Again, doing some homework before posting is a great way of not making ones self look stupid. You need to quit finding the analysts that give you the opinions you want, and just look at the facts. It could go a long ways.

And even if he was running some sort of offense where an inordinate amount of passes were completed behind the line of scrimmage, Nix wasn't the one calling the plays. He just ran them. And for what it's worth, he ran them to near perfection. I don't see a problem with that.


I appreciate your fact-based approach. Do you think you are consistent with that?

Darnold is a good get because he's a good guy? McCarthy sucks because of 15 minutes of play that you watched? Facts! Homework!

Right now you look the fool.

I do admire your ability to forget your legacy of misses. Carry on wise one.

Not what I said about Darnold. I surmised that he was a good get because he is cheap and has played with terrible talent as a starter in both his stops in New York and Carolina. This will be the most talent he has ever had around him. For the money, well worth giving him a last chance. Would you disagree with that? The fact that he's a good guy never played into my analysis.

Secondly, I never said McCarthy sucked. Not sure where you got that one. I said he was a spitting image of his coach, Jim Harbaugh, and that he played from in front for most of his collegiate career in a run-heavy offense with little-to-no, two-minute experience. Again, am I way off on that?

As for Nix, I've said everything I needed to say. He ran a pro-style offense and did it as good as anyone in the country. He didn't call the plays, he just ran them. Someone even had the audacity to say he had limited arm talent. He threw for 4,500 yards, 45 touchdowns and had a 77.4% completion percentage. Limited arm talent? Man, he must have been spectacular at everything else to put up those kind of numbers with limited arm talent.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 3/21/2024 7:33:07 AM >


_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!
Post #: 593
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 8:05:35 AM   
TJSweens


Posts: 45014
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: online
Some scouting reports on the great reader of defences:
NEGATIVES

— Oregon did not ask a lot of him as a processor down the field. Ton of screens, RPOs and simple vertical concepts.

— Inconsistent dropback footwork. Too often disrupts his timing when working full-bodied dropback passing concepts

— Below-average ability to find answers within structure when first read is taken away.

— Inconsistent toughness in the pocket. Shows good flashes, but too often falls away from throws.

— Inconsistent dropback footwork. Too often disrupts his timing when working full-bodied dropback passing concepts.


-Field vision / Pre-snap reads: By far, my biggest concerns with Nix are his field vision and pre-snap reads. Nix is an absolute wizard when improvising, and he can always hit a primary read quickly. However, the offense Nix plays in does not ask him to progress through reads in the way he will need to in the NFL. Also, most of Nix’s interceptions at Oregon were due to his lack of vision pre-snap. These interceptions were often on pre-snap decisions where intelligent defensive backs could easily read Nix and make a play on the ball.

I believe that Nix can grow in this area, but it will, at the very least, cause him to likely be unable to step in and start somewhere right away until he can adapt and improve in this regard.


2023 Review:
In 2023 (pending the bowl game), Nix has displayed an outstanding season statistically in SOME categories. Here are some of the stats that are not being discussed which are red flags when evaluating quarterbacks.

Completion % on throws of 20+ yards: 52.3%

Average depth of target: 6.7 yards

YAC (Yards After Catch) for QBs: No. 1

SOS (Strength of Schedule) No. 62

He lacks progression skills and feels more comfortable checking down or throwing slips where his wide receivers have to contribute to the workload.

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"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 594
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 8:15:43 AM   
Brad H


Posts: 22986
Joined: 8/16/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

Some scouting reports on the great reader of defences:
NEGATIVES

— Oregon did not ask a lot of him as a processor down the field. Ton of screens, RPOs and simple vertical concepts.

— Inconsistent dropback footwork. Too often disrupts his timing when working full-bodied dropback passing concepts

— Below-average ability to find answers within structure when first read is taken away.

— Inconsistent toughness in the pocket. Shows good flashes, but too often falls away from throws.

— Inconsistent dropback footwork. Too often disrupts his timing when working full-bodied dropback passing concepts.


-Field vision / Pre-snap reads: By far, my biggest concerns with Nix are his field vision and pre-snap reads. Nix is an absolute wizard when improvising, and he can always hit a primary read quickly. However, the offense Nix plays in does not ask him to progress through reads in the way he will need to in the NFL. Also, most of Nix’s interceptions at Oregon were due to his lack of vision pre-snap. These interceptions were often on pre-snap decisions where intelligent defensive backs could easily read Nix and make a play on the ball.

I believe that Nix can grow in this area, but it will, at the very least, cause him to likely be unable to step in and start somewhere right away until he can adapt and improve in this regard.


2023 Review:
In 2023 (pending the bowl game), Nix has displayed an outstanding season statistically in SOME categories. Here are some of the stats that are not being discussed which are red flags when evaluating quarterbacks.

Completion % on throws of 20+ yards: 52.3%

Average depth of target: 6.7 yards

YAC (Yards After Catch) for QBs: No. 1

SOS (Strength of Schedule) No. 62

He lacks progression skills and feels more comfortable checking down or throwing slips where his wide receivers have to contribute to the workload.

The comment I highlighted is the one that really cracks me up. Remember, he threw three interceptions last year. When they say most, I'm assuming they mean two. So he had two bad passes due to pre-snap (vision) reads that led to turnovers. He threw 470 freaking passes.

I'll take that!

Last season Patrick Mahomes completed the second least amount of throws over 20 yards of his career as a starter (last six years). He had 50 total in 16 starts during the season.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 3/21/2024 8:27:51 AM >


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Post #: 595
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 8:29:57 AM   
TJSweens


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Nix's numbers are the direct result of being able to throw a ton of short and intermediate passes and having receivers with the best YAC in college football. He doesn't read defenses well and is iffy going through progressions.

Nix in the first round is strictly a desperation pick.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 596
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 8:53:04 AM   
Brad H


Posts: 22986
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

Nix's numbers are the direct result of being able to throw a ton of short and intermediate passes and having receivers with the best YAC in college football. He doesn't read defenses well and is iffy going through progressions.

Nix in the first round is strictly a desperation pick.

I looked at the mock draft consensus. It shows one Oregon receiver getting drafted in the second round. Given your take, we either need to draft the receiver or get the offensive coordinator from Oregon. Somehow those guys were responsible for one of the greatest seasons by a quarterback in college football history.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 3/21/2024 8:56:02 AM >


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Post #: 597
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 9:41:03 AM   
Tom Sykes

 

Posts: 5872
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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes
Its not that I won't back up my talk, its that you can't comprehend it. Or you 're too obtuse to respond.

Number of pro bowls ... the size of his FA contract ... those are secondary considerations for any fan desperate for playoff wins and competing for championships. How does Cousins rate using that formula?

Don't bother answering, there's no way for you to be honest about it. (not that it bothers you)

You can't base it on team success that is dependent on the team not the player. The Vikings are going to have a far better defense going forward. Pro Bowls is the best solution I could come up with. I can be honest. Why not Pro Bowls? It's a fair and non subjective criteria. I hope you would win. I want our draft pick to be the next Brady/Mahomes/Montana/Manning etc. I'm assuming our pick will be McCarthy so I hope he's better than Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix.

I don't agree that Pro Bowls are non subjective ... non-deserving players make the team all the time while deserving players are left off. (All Pros is closer to objective but still partly a popularity contest).

Even so, you get a hall pass for admitting that's what you could come up with.

To each their own.

It's a non subjective criteria. In other words making or not making the Pro Bowl is simply a matter of fact. Who is deserving of pro bowls is subjective. Is Cousins a media darling? Is that why he makes the Pro Bowl? He's more of a whipping boy. You tell me a fair objective Criteria we could use for comparison. Of course since it would have to wait until the players in question have completed their careers we both may be dead before we could declare a winner.

A complete non sequitur. The pro bowl is barely more than fancy potato sack race participation ribbon.

Lets say you get selected Dec 23, 2022 because your team is 11-3 but then you go on to almost single-handedly get your team knocked out of its first playoff game ... its not much of a legitimate honor really.

Maybe if we called it the regular season pro bowl. But we don't which is a sham because the pro bowl should include the playoffs and SB when deciding the best players of any given year, don't you think?

Or, lets say you get into the pro bowl as an injury replacement fill-in, as Kirk did in 2016 (for Matt Ryan), 2017 (for Rogers), 2020 (for Rogers), 2022 (for Rogers).

But you go ahead and evaluate the greatness of QBs by their pro bowl appearances, be it starter or injury fill-in.

I'll continue to focus on what they can do for you in the playoffs.

Injury replacement tarnishes the honor a bit. So far every time Kirk got in it was as an injury replacement. I didn't know that. Don't they take 3 from each conference? Or is it 4? Regardless you have to play pretty well to make it. If Rogers wasn't such a wimp and Kirk such an Ironman he wouldn't have made as many.

Is leading your team to 31 points singlehandedly knocking them out of a playoff game? Yeah on a tough play he didn't get a first down. He shouldn't of had to. How many points did our Def give up in that playoff game? Yet it was Kirk who single handedly got us knocked out. How was Kirk's protection on that play? Yet it was Kirk who single handedly got us knocked out. Kirk deserves 99% of the blame for us losing that game right?

If our draft pick becomes part of super bowl championships I will definitely give him some props for his participation. I'll hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

You are correct, every pro bowl selects 3 QBs for each conference so … an injury replacement doesnt even get in as a backup. Lame.

Even more lame is how you switch between ‘team game’ as an excuse for Kirk’s playoff performances / won-loss record when it suits your argument. You can’t blame him for losses but then ‘he single-handedly’ put up 31 points in the Giants game.

It IS a team game but in your hands that’s just a weak sauce excuse to justify the end result of pro bowler Cousins’ performances. Some of us evaluate his performences on their own, good and bad, and also with in the context of his wins and losses.

He hasn’t gotten it done.

This is a place that exists outside your ability to think clearly. You can’t get there, what’s worse, you prefer not to.
Post #: 598
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 10:01:48 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33770
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

There was a joke apparently called Bubble Screen Bo....more information:

27.6% of Nix’s passing attempts were thrown behind the line of scrimmage with a completion rate of 95.5%. 39.4% of his passing attempts were between 0-9 yards downfield with a completion rate of 82.8%.

7.0 ADOT is pretty low and the only notable QB with a lower figure is Cade Klubnik at 6.9. UAB’s Jacob Zeno had CFB’s lowest ADOT at 5.5 yards. Highest in the P5 was Jalen Milroe at 13.9.

Other QB’s ADOT for reference:

Michael Penix: 11.3
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Quinn Ewers: 8.4
Carson Beck: 8.5
Shedeur Sanders: 8.5
JJ McCarthy: 10.3
Drake Maye: 11.0

Bo Nix still did incredibly well when throwing the ball greater than 10 yards. He had 26 TDs and 2 interceptions on those throws.

Silly and stupid. Why? Because Nix is running a pro-style offense.

Bo Nix's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6
Brock Purdy's yards-per-attempt in 2023....9.6

The second guy had the top passer-rating in the NFL in 2023. You gonna criticize him for completing nothing but short passes?

Again, doing some homework before posting is a great way of not making ones self look stupid. You need to quit finding the analysts that give you the opinions you want, and just look at the facts. It could go a long ways.

And even if he was running some sort of offense where an inordinate amount of passes were completed behind the line of scrimmage, Nix wasn't the one calling the plays. He just ran them. And for what it's worth, he ran them to near perfection. I don't see a problem with that.


I appreciate your fact-based approach. Do you think you are consistent with that?

Darnold is a good get because he's a good guy? McCarthy sucks because of 15 minutes of play that you watched? Facts! Homework!

Right now you look the fool.

I do admire your ability to forget your legacy of misses. Carry on wise one.

Not what I said about Darnold. I surmised that he was a good get because he is cheap and has played with terrible talent as a starter in both his stops in New York and Carolina. This will be the most talent he has ever had around him. For the money, well worth giving him a last chance. Would you disagree with that? The fact that he's a good guy never played into my analysis.

Secondly, I never said McCarthy sucked. Not sure where you got that one. I said he was a spitting image of his coach, Jim Harbaugh, and that he played from in front for most of his collegiate career in a run-heavy offense with little-to-no, two-minute experience. Again, am I way off on that?

As for Nix, I've said everything I needed to say. He ran a pro-style offense and did it as good as anyone in the country. He didn't call the plays, he just ran them. Someone even had the audacity to say he had limited arm talent. He threw for 4,500 yards, 45 touchdowns and had a 77.4% completion percentage. Limited arm talent? Man, he must have been spectacular at everything else to put up those kind of numbers with limited arm talent.

You're preaching to the choir with me. 26 of his 45 TD passes; well over half; were long passes. It's not like all his TD passes came from 5 yards or less.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 3/21/2024 10:04:14 AM >


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So let it be done."
Post #: 599
RE: 2024 Draft - 3/21/2024 10:15:41 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33770
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes
Its not that I won't back up my talk, its that you can't comprehend it. Or you 're too obtuse to respond.

Number of pro bowls ... the size of his FA contract ... those are secondary considerations for any fan desperate for playoff wins and competing for championships. How does Cousins rate using that formula?

Don't bother answering, there's no way for you to be honest about it. (not that it bothers you)

You can't base it on team success that is dependent on the team not the player. The Vikings are going to have a far better defense going forward. Pro Bowls is the best solution I could come up with. I can be honest. Why not Pro Bowls? It's a fair and non subjective criteria. I hope you would win. I want our draft pick to be the next Brady/Mahomes/Montana/Manning etc. I'm assuming our pick will be McCarthy so I hope he's better than Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix and Penix.

I don't agree that Pro Bowls are non subjective ... non-deserving players make the team all the time while deserving players are left off. (All Pros is closer to objective but still partly a popularity contest).

Even so, you get a hall pass for admitting that's what you could come up with.

To each their own.

It's a non subjective criteria. In other words making or not making the Pro Bowl is simply a matter of fact. Who is deserving of pro bowls is subjective. Is Cousins a media darling? Is that why he makes the Pro Bowl? He's more of a whipping boy. You tell me a fair objective Criteria we could use for comparison. Of course since it would have to wait until the players in question have completed their careers we both may be dead before we could declare a winner.

A complete non sequitur. The pro bowl is barely more than fancy potato sack race participation ribbon.

Lets say you get selected Dec 23, 2022 because your team is 11-3 but then you go on to almost single-handedly get your team knocked out of its first playoff game ... its not much of a legitimate honor really.

Maybe if we called it the regular season pro bowl. But we don't which is a sham because the pro bowl should include the playoffs and SB when deciding the best players of any given year, don't you think?

Or, lets say you get into the pro bowl as an injury replacement fill-in, as Kirk did in 2016 (for Matt Ryan), 2017 (for Rogers), 2020 (for Rogers), 2022 (for Rogers).

But you go ahead and evaluate the greatness of QBs by their pro bowl appearances, be it starter or injury fill-in.

I'll continue to focus on what they can do for you in the playoffs.

Injury replacement tarnishes the honor a bit. So far every time Kirk got in it was as an injury replacement. I didn't know that. Don't they take 3 from each conference? Or is it 4? Regardless you have to play pretty well to make it. If Rogers wasn't such a wimp and Kirk such an Ironman he wouldn't have made as many.

Is leading your team to 31 points singlehandedly knocking them out of a playoff game? Yeah on a tough play he didn't get a first down. He shouldn't of had to. How many points did our Def give up in that playoff game? Yet it was Kirk who single handedly got us knocked out. How was Kirk's protection on that play? Yet it was Kirk who single handedly got us knocked out. Kirk deserves 99% of the blame for us losing that game right?

If our draft pick becomes part of super bowl championships I will definitely give him some props for his participation. I'll hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

You are correct, every pro bowl selects 3 QBs for each conference so … an injury replacement doesnt even get in as a backup. Lame.

Even more lame is how you switch between ‘team game’ as an excuse for Kirk’s playoff performances / won-loss record when it suits your argument. You can’t blame him for losses but then ‘he single-handedly’ put up 31 points in the Giants game.

It IS a team game but in your hands that’s just a weak sauce excuse to justify the end result of pro bowler Cousins’ performances. Some of us evaluate his performences on their own, good and bad, and also with in the context of his wins and losses.

He hasn’t gotten it done.

This is a place that exists outside your ability to think clearly. You can’t get there, what’s worse, you prefer not to.

You completely misread me. I in no way said Kirk single handedly put up 31 points. I said he led us to 31 points. QBs do lead the team. I sarcastically said that us only scoring 31 points was all his fault causing us to lose the game. 31 points is an amount that should win the game. We didn't have a defense good enough to hold our opponent to less. Did any other playoff team score 31 and lose? I'm not sure, but my best guess is no.

Being the 4th QB option out of a conference of 16 teams is very good. The opposite of lame. Were you just being sarcastic or do you really believe 4th out of 16 is lame?
I agree that Kirk did not get the job done in the end. I also doubt that our QB draft pick this year will get the job done in the end. I hope I'm wrong.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 3/21/2024 10:18:41 AM >


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