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RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 10:59:40 AM

Todd M

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If it goes Willam’s/Maye/Daniels I say take a stud on D and OL depth.

Post #: 751

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 11:30:03 AM

kgdabom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

I don’t think Washington will be able to walk away from 4 1sts.

Hopefully we can.

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So let it be done."

Post #: 752

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 11:31:02 AM

kgdabom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

I trust the general consensus that Nix is a bum but I worry Brad might be right on McCarthy.

Likely moot as we’re going to pry 2 from Washington or 3 if they won’t budge from the Pats if it goes Williams/Daniels.

I’d just as soon pay up and park ourselves at 2 right now.

That is far from a general consensus.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 753

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 11:31:23 AM

David Levine

Posts: 77938
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

I trust the general consensus that Nix is a bum but I worry Brad might be right on McCarthy.

Likely moot as we’re going to pry 2 from Washington or 3 if they won’t budge from the Pats if it goes Williams/Daniels.

I’d just as soon pay up and park ourselves at 2 right now.

I don’t think Nix is a bum. I’d take him at 23.

I just worry he’s not going to translate to the Pro Game.

He could absolutely prove me wrong, but you’re banking on him being able to do a lot of things he hasn’t shown yet.

I’d guess at least 3 of the “Big 6” don’t pan out. I’m glad my livelihood doesn’t hinge on picking the right one.

Post #: 754

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 11:35:00 AM

kgdabom

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Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

I trust the general consensus that Nix is a bum but I worry Brad might be right on McCarthy.

Likely moot as we’re going to pry 2 from Washington or 3 if they won’t budge from the Pats if it goes Williams/Daniels.

I’d just as soon pay up and park ourselves at 2 right now.

I don’t think Nix is a bum. I’d take him at 23.

I just worry he’s not going to translate to the Pro Game.

He could absolutely prove me wrong, but you’re banking on him being able to do a lot of things he hasn’t shown yet.

I’d guess at least 3 of the “Big 6” don’t pan out. I’m glad my livelihood doesn’t hinge on picking the right one.

Nix is getting selected at 12 by the Broncos assuming the Vikings trade up in the draft. If not I'm hoping for McCarthy, Maye or Nix at 11.

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Post #: 755

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 12:15:07 PM

TJSweens

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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

1. YOU DON'T KNOW BRADY WAS ANYTHING LIKE NIX IN COLLEGE. QUIT ASSUMING THAT HE WAS.

I am making the comparison based on Nix throwing with high accuracy.

Brady completed 62% of his passes in college. There's no comparison to make.

If you want to draw a comparison between low ADOT and high completion %....BINGO! When 28% of your throws are behind the los and another 39% are in the 0-9 yard range, any decent QB will complete an impressive percentage of passes.

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Post #: 756

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 12:26:48 PM

TJSweens

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabomb
The ADOT thing is him running his coaches offense to perfection.

It's Nix making one read and dumping. The system allowed him to do that. He didn't do as well when he played in a system that required him to do more. You can't dump 67% of your throws in the NFL.

I can’t remember the last guy who put up crazy numbers in a “gimmick” offense that translated to the NFL.

But see, this is where you are wrong. It's not a gimmick offense any more. The Ducks passed the ball 54% of the time last season. The average in the NFL was around 55-56% in 2023.

https://fftoday.com/stats/23_run_pass_ratios.html

How was the Ducks' offense gimmicky?

Conversely, Michigan passed the ball 39% of the time. By any standards, that's a way more gimmicky offense than what Oregon was running.

The Ducks offense is gimmicky because the QB makes one read and dumps the ball if the primary isn't open. You'll get insane completion % when the vast majority of your passes are behind the los or just a few yards across it. That works in a weak college conference. It won't work in the NFL.

Michigan's offense is not gimmicky at all. It's run heavy. The passing game involves the QB going through reads and progressions like an NFL offense.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."

Post #: 757

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 12:29:59 PM

David Levine

Posts: 77938
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

1. YOU DON'T KNOW BRADY WAS ANYTHING LIKE NIX IN COLLEGE. QUIT ASSUMING THAT HE WAS.

I am making the comparison based on Nix throwing with high accuracy.

Brady completed 62% of his passes in college. There's no comparison to make.

If you want to draw a comparison between low ADOT and high completion %....BINGO! When 28% of your throws are behind the los and another 39% are in the 0-9 yard range, any decent QB will complete an impressive percentage of passes.

My favorite take is “if you remove the dropped passes, his % is even better!”

Post #: 758

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 1:06:12 PM

kgdabom

Posts: 33770
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

1. YOU DON'T KNOW BRADY WAS ANYTHING LIKE NIX IN COLLEGE. QUIT ASSUMING THAT HE WAS.

I am making the comparison based on Nix throwing with high accuracy.

Brady completed 62% of his passes in college. There's no comparison to make.

If you want to draw a comparison between low ADOT and high completion %....BINGO! When 28% of your throws are behind the los and another 39% are in the 0-9 yard range, any decent QB will complete an impressive percentage of passes.

My favorite take is “if you remove the dropped passes, his % is even better!”

I love it too. He goes up to 87% completions when removing drops. I guarantee you that you can remove drops for other QBs and they won't even go up to 80%.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 759

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 1:07:55 PM

kgdabom

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Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabomb
The ADOT thing is him running his coaches offense to perfection.

It's Nix making one read and dumping. The system allowed him to do that. He didn't do as well when he played in a system that required him to do more. You can't dump 67% of your throws in the NFL.

I can’t remember the last guy who put up crazy numbers in a “gimmick” offense that translated to the NFL.

But see, this is where you are wrong. It's not a gimmick offense any more. The Ducks passed the ball 54% of the time last season. The average in the NFL was around 55-56% in 2023.

https://fftoday.com/stats/23_run_pass_ratios.html

How was the Ducks' offense gimmicky?

Conversely, Michigan passed the ball 39% of the time. By any standards, that's a way more gimmicky offense than what Oregon was running.

The Ducks offense is gimmicky because the QB makes one read and dumps the ball if the primary isn't open. You'll get insane completion % when the vast majority of your passes are behind the los or just a few yards across it. That works in a weak college conference. It won't work in the NFL.

Michigan's offense is not gimmicky at all. It's run heavy. The passing game involves the QB going through reads and progressions like an NFL offense.

Do you actually believe what you're saying about Nix not making reads?

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 3/24/2024 1:09:13 PM >

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"So let it be written.
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Post #: 760

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 1:10:43 PM

kgdabom

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Brand New Mock with Vikings getting McCarthy at 11. It could happen if we weren't so hellbent on trading up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqhZzydPlpw

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Post #: 761

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 1:18:28 PM

Todd M

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4 will be gone by 10.

Penix 15 to 20.

Nix in the 6th round.

Post #: 762

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 1:21:29 PM

Todd M

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Nix med priority UDFA.

Post #: 763

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 1:26:32 PM

David Levine

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From: Las Vegas
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4 will be gone by 6.

Penix no later than 13.

Nix late 1st, early 2nd.

Post #: 764

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 6:22:03 PM

kgdabom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

4 will be gone by 6.

Penix no later than 13.

Nix late 1st, early 2nd.

Nix is a virtual lock to Denver at pick 12. Penix most likely Raiders at pick 13, but since they are the last of the teams really needing a QB they could risk waiting. .

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 3/24/2024 7:36:10 PM >

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Post #: 765

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 7:22:10 PM

kgdabom

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I don't know who Brett Kollman is, but his thought processes are pure genius IMO.

Brett Kollmann
@BrettKollmann
I feel like picks 2, 3, 4, and 5 all lining up for the chance to get Minnesota's picks should be some kind of warning sign to all of us.

I don't know what that warning is yet, but it's there.
4:02 PM · Mar 24, 2024
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83.5K
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"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 766

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 7:47:47 PM

kgdabom

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I'm 90% convinced we are trading up. I hate it, but I think when it comes to drafting Kwesi is an idiot. He will trade up and give up far more than it should cost to trade up. He will do "WHATEVER IT TAKES" those words that bring joy to every potential trade partner everywhere.

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"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 767

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 7:56:47 PM

Chris Olson

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With the blitz of articles this past week espousing how "aggressive" the Vikings will be in moving up in the draft, I'm starting to feel like it could be smoke on some level.

Like, could Kwesi be savvy enough to be letting teams think he is willing to give up 4 firsts to move up and let them sweat when we don't call?

Then they call us and we get a better deal?

And the other story this week being that we sent everyone to hang out with JJ this week as more smoke that he is the guy we really like and are moving to 4 for him...

and instead we pass and move up one spot for Penix?

Or to bait another team to move up for him?

Just seems weird that we would be so transparent

Post #: 768

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 9:46:44 PM

kgdabom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

With the blitz of articles this past week espousing how "aggressive" the Vikings will be in moving up in the draft, I'm starting to feel like it could be smoke on some level.

Like, could Kwesi be savvy enough to be letting teams think he is willing to give up 4 firsts to move up and let them sweat when we don't call?

Then they call us and we get a better deal?

And the other story this week being that we sent everyone to hang out with JJ this week as more smoke that he is the guy we really like and are moving to 4 for him...

and instead we pass and move up one spot for Penix?

Or to bait another team to move up for him?

Just seems weird that we would be so transparent

I appreciate you trying to cheer me up, but I'm convinced Kwesi will do whatever it takes to move up.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 769

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 9:51:59 PM

kgdabom

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I mentioned this mock where we got McCarthy at 11 earlier today, but I didn't check out who we got at 23. It was Jared Verse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqhZzydPlpw
We could have had Murphy. He was still on the board.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 770

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 10:07:29 PM

Tom Sykes

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

4 will be gone by 6.

Penix no later than 13.

Nix late 1st, early 2nd.

Last year Levis (Round 2, pick 33) was a first rounder. Hooker (Round 3, pick 68) was a borderline first rd / 2nd rd pick. Willis the year before (Round 3, Pick 86) was a first rounder ...

Penix, Nix going top fifteen sounds unlikely to me (as some are predicting).

McCarthy as well ... the jump from where he started the draft process has been outrageous. Yes he does carry a championship pedigree, deserved or not, but I really believe his lack of performance on tape has worked for him. The same way it helped Lance. Most other QBs its a red flag, a knock against them, a sure sign of extra required development. The enigma of McCarthy and Lance has stoked fascination instead of caution.

I have no idea how it will play out ... but all the draft hyperbole that pushes prospects up in mock drafts has to be tempered by teams who are worrying about #2 Lance, #3 Wilson, #3 Darnold, #10 Rosen, #2 Trubiskey, #1 Winston, #2 Mariota etc etc etc.

For my money, Williams, Daniels and Maye (needing more development than the other two) look like future nfl QBs. And that's it.

McCarthy, Penix, Nix look like good college QBs that deserve a shot in the pros. If one of the three prove better than a back-up I'll be surprised.

Pleasantly surprised if we grab one.

Post #: 771

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/24/2024 10:14:01 PM

Tom Sykes

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

With the blitz of articles this past week espousing how "aggressive" the Vikings will be in moving up in the draft, I'm starting to feel like it could be smoke on some level.

Like, could Kwesi be savvy enough to be letting teams think he is willing to give up 4 firsts to move up and let them sweat when we don't call?

Then they call us and we get a better deal?

And the other story this week being that we sent everyone to hang out with JJ this week as more smoke that he is the guy we really like and are moving to 4 for him...

and instead we pass and move up one spot for Penix?

Or to bait another team to move up for him?

Just seems weird that we would be so transparent

It would be nice to think that Kwesi improved from Draft #1 to Draft #2 and then punched the hyperdrive for this draft with all the draft dupery and flimflam that you are suggesting.

Post #: 772

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/25/2024 4:10:34 AM

kgdabom

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Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

With the blitz of articles this past week espousing how "aggressive" the Vikings will be in moving up in the draft, I'm starting to feel like it could be smoke on some level.

Like, could Kwesi be savvy enough to be letting teams think he is willing to give up 4 firsts to move up and let them sweat when we don't call?

Then they call us and we get a better deal?

And the other story this week being that we sent everyone to hang out with JJ this week as more smoke that he is the guy we really like and are moving to 4 for him...

and instead we pass and move up one spot for Penix?

Or to bait another team to move up for him?

Just seems weird that we would be so transparent

It would be nice to think that Kwesi improved from Draft #1 to Draft #2 and then punched the hyperdrive for this draft with all the draft dupery and flimflam that you are suggesting.

I appreciate the FA moves that Kwesi has done this year, but I am in dread of what he will do in the draft.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 773

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/25/2024 5:54:29 AM

Todd M

Posts: 40668
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: online

One man’s dread is another man’s dream.

Post #: 774

RE: 2024 Draft - 3/25/2024 5:56:39 AM

Todd M

Posts: 40668
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

I don't know who Brett Kollman is, but his thought processes are pure genius IMO.

Brett Kollmann
@BrettKollmann
I feel like picks 2, 3, 4, and 5 all lining up for the chance to get Minnesota's picks should be some kind of warning sign to all of us.

I don't know what that warning is yet, but it's there.
4:02 PM · Mar 24, 2024
·
83.5K
Views