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RE: General Twins Talk - 8/24/2026 4:52:10 PM   
Bill Johanesen


Posts: 34034
Status: offline
Based on posts here (not reading them that close), checked for the first time ever about the Twins record WRT the playoffs. I think they are 2 games out from the last playoff spot. Why wouldn't they want to field their best team?

Does calling up the prospects offer the best chance of success? Is there prospect-coddling going on amongst some fans?

Should a, say, 85% chance of a work stoppage affect what is going on right now?

The 3-4 teams above the Twins are not exactly world beaters.
Post #: 801
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/24/2026 4:59:35 PM   
Bill Johanesen


Posts: 34034
Status: offline
Never looked at the Twins logo until the other day but what is with the imbedded Reds C?

Yeah, yeah, Twin Cities.

Why not make it one city? I don't see the Seattle-Tacoma Whoevers.

A makeover is needed. The Reds should sue.
Post #: 802
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/24/2026 7:57:36 PM   
TJSweens


Posts: 46787
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Never looked at the Twins logo until the other day but what is with the imbedded Reds C?

Yeah, yeah, Twin Cities.

Why not make it one city? I don't see the Seattle-Tacoma Whoevers.

A makeover is needed. The Reds should sue.

That post could be one of Matt's.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 803
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/24/2026 9:35:15 PM   
Phil Riewer


Posts: 32865
Joined: 8/24/2007
From: MN
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Never looked at the Twins logo until the other day but what is with the imbedded Reds C?

Yeah, yeah, Twin Cities.

Why not make it one city? I don't see the Seattle-Tacoma Whoevers.

A makeover is needed. The Reds should sue.

That post could be one of Matt's.

I have to agree except Matt would post it in the Vikes thread to get more attention.

_____________________________

SSG Riewer, Greg A Co 2/136 CAB
KIA 23 March 2007 Habbaniyah Iraq
Post #: 804
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 8:30:50 AM   
Bill Johanesen


Posts: 34034
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Never looked at the Twins logo until the other day but what is with the imbedded Reds C?

Yeah, yeah, Twin Cities.

Why not make it one city? I don't see the Seattle-Tacoma Whoevers.

A makeover is needed. The Reds should sue.

That post could be one of Matt's.


Admittedly, it is Matt-ish
Post #: 805
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 8:57:54 AM   
twinsfan


Posts: 67394
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
I was not at the game last night. I couldn't even stay up for the end. Happy to see we held on for the win!

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Wokewashed
Post #: 806
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 9:00:05 AM   
twinsfan


Posts: 67394
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Never looked at the Twins logo until the other day but what is with the imbedded Reds C?

Yeah, yeah, Twin Cities.

Why not make it one city? I don't see the Seattle-Tacoma Whoevers.

A makeover is needed. The Reds should sue.

That post could be one of Matt's.

Worse than any take I've ever had on any subject.

_____________________________

Wokewashed
Post #: 807
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 9:01:06 AM   
Trekgeekscott


Posts: 40910
Joined: 7/16/2007
From: United Federation of Planets
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Never looked at the Twins logo until the other day but what is with the imbedded Reds C?

Yeah, yeah, Twin Cities.

Why not make it one city? I don't see the Seattle-Tacoma Whoevers.

A makeover is needed. The Reds should sue.

That post could be one of Matt's.

Worse than any take I've ever had on any subject.


I wouldn't go quite that far...

_____________________________

All my life I thought air was free, until I bought a bag of chips.
Post #: 808
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 9:17:06 AM   
TJSweens


Posts: 46787
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

Never looked at the Twins logo until the other day but what is with the imbedded Reds C?

Yeah, yeah, Twin Cities.

Why not make it one city? I don't see the Seattle-Tacoma Whoevers.

A makeover is needed. The Reds should sue.

That post could be one of Matt's.

Worse than any take I've ever had on any subject.

I wouldn't go quite that far...

It might make Matt's top ten though.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 809
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 10:59:33 AM   
twinsfan


Posts: 67394
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
1. Johan Santana 226.78
2. Bert Blyleven 189.49
3. Brad Radke 157.30
4. Joe Nathan 139.23
5. Jim Perry 86.33
6. Frank Viola 80.35
7. Rick Aguilera 73.46
8. Camilo Pascual 60.26
9. Matt Guerrier 58.98
10. Sonny Gray
11. Kevin Tapani 49.34
12. Dave Goltz 48.73
13. Jhoan Duran 47.69
14. Scott Baker 46.77
15. Doug Corbett 45.92
16. Jack Kralick 45.67
17. Al Worthington 42.37
18. Juan Berenguer 41.98
19. Joe Ryan 39.92
20. Taylor Rogers 39.81
21. Jerry Koosman 38.97
22. Dean Chance 38.17
23. Pablo López 35.12
24. Ervin Santana 34.98
25. Eddie Guardado 33.35
26. Juan Rincón 31.31
27. José Berríos 31.11
28. Caleb Thielbar 30.19
29. Greg Swindell 30.02
30. Bill Campbell 29.94
31. Tom Hall 28.90
32. Jim Merritt 28.53
33. Pat Neshek 27.57

Very interesting list. Somewhat surprisingly, Jim Kaat and Glen Perkins do not make the Top 33.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

RE24 (or run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states) may sound like a computer error or a random assortment of letters and numbers, but the actual logic and mechanisms behind the statistic make it extremely useful for fans and analysts. It is based on the concept of run expectancy, which provides the average number of expected runs per inning given the current number of outs and placement of baserunners. The number “24” refers to the potential number of base-out states (zero, one, two outs and eight different baserunner arrangements).

Since run expectancy tells you the number of expected runs, any number of runs created above or below that value can be treated as runs above or below average for the batter or pitcher depending on the outcome of each plate appearance. Unlike wRAA, wRC, or Batting Runs, RE24 is context-dependent and assigns more credit for hits with men on base than with the bases empty. With league average set to 0, hitters with positive RE24 are creating more runs than we would expect given the situations they have been placed in and pitchers with positive numbers are preventing more runs than average given the situations in which they have been placed.


I like this stat. It shows how effective a pitcher is when there is more importance on getting an out or getting out of an inning (runners on base and # of outs in the inning are both factored in).

Thielbar does well here because he's often put into "tight spots," but usually with a lefty vs lefty pitcher advantage. I'm more impressed with the starting pitchers that excel in this stat. Radke ranks very high. He clearly had an ability to bear down. It also makes sense that he gave up many of his runs on solo HR, which is what he was really remembered for.

I'm a little shocked at how high Guerrier ranks. Not surprised Bob Wells isn't on the list.

< Message edited by twinsfan -- 8/25/2026 11:00:34 AM >


_____________________________

Wokewashed
Post #: 810
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 11:34:43 AM   
Trekgeekscott


Posts: 40910
Joined: 7/16/2007
From: United Federation of Planets
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

1. Johan Santana 226.78
2. Bert Blyleven 189.49
3. Brad Radke 157.30
4. Joe Nathan 139.23
5. Jim Perry 86.33
6. Frank Viola 80.35
7. Rick Aguilera 73.46
8. Camilo Pascual 60.26
9. Matt Guerrier 58.98
10. Sonny Gray
11. Kevin Tapani 49.34
12. Dave Goltz 48.73
13. Jhoan Duran 47.69
14. Scott Baker 46.77
15. Doug Corbett 45.92
16. Jack Kralick 45.67
17. Al Worthington 42.37
18. Juan Berenguer 41.98
19. Joe Ryan 39.92
20. Taylor Rogers 39.81
21. Jerry Koosman 38.97
22. Dean Chance 38.17
23. Pablo López 35.12
24. Ervin Santana 34.98
25. Eddie Guardado 33.35
26. Juan Rincón 31.31
27. José Berríos 31.11
28. Caleb Thielbar 30.19
29. Greg Swindell 30.02
30. Bill Campbell 29.94
31. Tom Hall 28.90
32. Jim Merritt 28.53
33. Pat Neshek 27.57

Very interesting list. Somewhat surprisingly, Jim Kaat and Glen Perkins do not make the Top 33.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

RE24 (or run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states) may sound like a computer error or a random assortment of letters and numbers, but the actual logic and mechanisms behind the statistic make it extremely useful for fans and analysts. It is based on the concept of run expectancy, which provides the average number of expected runs per inning given the current number of outs and placement of baserunners. The number “24” refers to the potential number of base-out states (zero, one, two outs and eight different baserunner arrangements).

Since run expectancy tells you the number of expected runs, any number of runs created above or below that value can be treated as runs above or below average for the batter or pitcher depending on the outcome of each plate appearance. Unlike wRAA, wRC, or Batting Runs, RE24 is context-dependent and assigns more credit for hits with men on base than with the bases empty. With league average set to 0, hitters with positive RE24 are creating more runs than we would expect given the situations they have been placed in and pitchers with positive numbers are preventing more runs than average given the situations in which they have been placed.


I like this stat. It shows how effective a pitcher is when there is more importance on getting an out or getting out of an inning (runners on base and # of outs in the inning are both factored in).

Thielbar does well here because he's often put into "tight spots," but usually with a lefty vs lefty pitcher advantage. I'm more impressed with the starting pitchers that excel in this stat. Radke ranks very high. He clearly had an ability to bear down. It also makes sense that he gave up many of his runs on solo HR, which is what he was really remembered for.

I'm a little shocked at how high Guerrier ranks. Not surprised Bob Wells isn't on the list.



this is what I call the very definition of over analyzing shit

_____________________________

All my life I thought air was free, until I bought a bag of chips.
Post #: 811
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 12:46:14 PM   
Phil Riewer


Posts: 32865
Joined: 8/24/2007
From: MN
Status: offline
Dean Kramer reminds me of a combo of Scott Baker, Matt Guerrier, and Brad Radke. I haven’t seen enough to decide if it is the good or bad.

_____________________________

SSG Riewer, Greg A Co 2/136 CAB
KIA 23 March 2007 Habbaniyah Iraq
Post #: 812
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 12:48:48 PM   
Phil Riewer


Posts: 32865
Joined: 8/24/2007
From: MN
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

1. Johan Santana 226.78
2. Bert Blyleven 189.49
3. Brad Radke 157.30
4. Joe Nathan 139.23
5. Jim Perry 86.33
6. Frank Viola 80.35
7. Rick Aguilera 73.46
8. Camilo Pascual 60.26
9. Matt Guerrier 58.98
10. Sonny Gray
11. Kevin Tapani 49.34
12. Dave Goltz 48.73
13. Jhoan Duran 47.69
14. Scott Baker 46.77
15. Doug Corbett 45.92
16. Jack Kralick 45.67
17. Al Worthington 42.37
18. Juan Berenguer 41.98
19. Joe Ryan 39.92
20. Taylor Rogers 39.81
21. Jerry Koosman 38.97
22. Dean Chance 38.17
23. Pablo López 35.12
24. Ervin Santana 34.98
25. Eddie Guardado 33.35
26. Juan Rincón 31.31
27. José Berríos 31.11
28. Caleb Thielbar 30.19
29. Greg Swindell 30.02
30. Bill Campbell 29.94
31. Tom Hall 28.90
32. Jim Merritt 28.53
33. Pat Neshek 27.57

Very interesting list. Somewhat surprisingly, Jim Kaat and Glen Perkins do not make the Top 33.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

RE24 (or run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states) may sound like a computer error or a random assortment of letters and numbers, but the actual logic and mechanisms behind the statistic make it extremely useful for fans and analysts. It is based on the concept of run expectancy, which provides the average number of expected runs per inning given the current number of outs and placement of baserunners. The number “24” refers to the potential number of base-out states (zero, one, two outs and eight different baserunner arrangements).

Since run expectancy tells you the number of expected runs, any number of runs created above or below that value can be treated as runs above or below average for the batter or pitcher depending on the outcome of each plate appearance. Unlike wRAA, wRC, or Batting Runs, RE24 is context-dependent and assigns more credit for hits with men on base than with the bases empty. With league average set to 0, hitters with positive RE24 are creating more runs than we would expect given the situations they have been placed in and pitchers with positive numbers are preventing more runs than average given the situations in which they have been placed.


I like this stat. It shows how effective a pitcher is when there is more importance on getting an out or getting out of an inning (runners on base and # of outs in the inning are both factored in).

Thielbar does well here because he's often put into "tight spots," but usually with a lefty vs lefty pitcher advantage. I'm more impressed with the starting pitchers that excel in this stat. Radke ranks very high. He clearly had an ability to bear down. It also makes sense that he gave up many of his runs on solo HR, which is what he was really remembered for.

I'm a little shocked at how high Guerrier ranks. Not surprised Bob Wells isn't on the list.



this is what I call the very definition of over analyzing shit


All I can think of is all the years we wasted Johan’s talent as we wouldn’t go out and get him enough help even with Nathan and Francisco from the AJ trade.

_____________________________

SSG Riewer, Greg A Co 2/136 CAB
KIA 23 March 2007 Habbaniyah Iraq
Post #: 813
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 2:04:06 PM   
twinsfan


Posts: 67394
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

1. Johan Santana 226.78
2. Bert Blyleven 189.49
3. Brad Radke 157.30
4. Joe Nathan 139.23
5. Jim Perry 86.33
6. Frank Viola 80.35
7. Rick Aguilera 73.46
8. Camilo Pascual 60.26
9. Matt Guerrier 58.98
10. Sonny Gray
11. Kevin Tapani 49.34
12. Dave Goltz 48.73
13. Jhoan Duran 47.69
14. Scott Baker 46.77
15. Doug Corbett 45.92
16. Jack Kralick 45.67
17. Al Worthington 42.37
18. Juan Berenguer 41.98
19. Joe Ryan 39.92
20. Taylor Rogers 39.81
21. Jerry Koosman 38.97
22. Dean Chance 38.17
23. Pablo López 35.12
24. Ervin Santana 34.98
25. Eddie Guardado 33.35
26. Juan Rincón 31.31
27. José Berríos 31.11
28. Caleb Thielbar 30.19
29. Greg Swindell 30.02
30. Bill Campbell 29.94
31. Tom Hall 28.90
32. Jim Merritt 28.53
33. Pat Neshek 27.57

Very interesting list. Somewhat surprisingly, Jim Kaat and Glen Perkins do not make the Top 33.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

RE24 (or run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states) may sound like a computer error or a random assortment of letters and numbers, but the actual logic and mechanisms behind the statistic make it extremely useful for fans and analysts. It is based on the concept of run expectancy, which provides the average number of expected runs per inning given the current number of outs and placement of baserunners. The number “24” refers to the potential number of base-out states (zero, one, two outs and eight different baserunner arrangements).

Since run expectancy tells you the number of expected runs, any number of runs created above or below that value can be treated as runs above or below average for the batter or pitcher depending on the outcome of each plate appearance. Unlike wRAA, wRC, or Batting Runs, RE24 is context-dependent and assigns more credit for hits with men on base than with the bases empty. With league average set to 0, hitters with positive RE24 are creating more runs than we would expect given the situations they have been placed in and pitchers with positive numbers are preventing more runs than average given the situations in which they have been placed.


I like this stat. It shows how effective a pitcher is when there is more importance on getting an out or getting out of an inning (runners on base and # of outs in the inning are both factored in).

Thielbar does well here because he's often put into "tight spots," but usually with a lefty vs lefty pitcher advantage. I'm more impressed with the starting pitchers that excel in this stat. Radke ranks very high. He clearly had an ability to bear down. It also makes sense that he gave up many of his runs on solo HR, which is what he was really remembered for.

I'm a little shocked at how high Guerrier ranks. Not surprised Bob Wells isn't on the list.



this is what I call the very definition of over analyzing shit

No, you just haven't taken the initiative to understand it.

_____________________________

Wokewashed
Post #: 814
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 2:06:10 PM   
twinsfan


Posts: 67394
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
I have an idea. Divide the RE24 number by # of innings pitched as a Twin. That should get you to the most dominant. Appears it would be Duran. Gray would also be very high.

_____________________________

Wokewashed
Post #: 815
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 2:12:02 PM   
twinsfan


Posts: 67394
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
We'll see what Tim says. We know he gets BIG MAD when Scott Baker ranks higher on a list than he thinks he should rank.

_____________________________

Wokewashed
Post #: 816
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 2:42:30 PM   
Trekgeekscott


Posts: 40910
Joined: 7/16/2007
From: United Federation of Planets
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

1. Johan Santana 226.78
2. Bert Blyleven 189.49
3. Brad Radke 157.30
4. Joe Nathan 139.23
5. Jim Perry 86.33
6. Frank Viola 80.35
7. Rick Aguilera 73.46
8. Camilo Pascual 60.26
9. Matt Guerrier 58.98
10. Sonny Gray
11. Kevin Tapani 49.34
12. Dave Goltz 48.73
13. Jhoan Duran 47.69
14. Scott Baker 46.77
15. Doug Corbett 45.92
16. Jack Kralick 45.67
17. Al Worthington 42.37
18. Juan Berenguer 41.98
19. Joe Ryan 39.92
20. Taylor Rogers 39.81
21. Jerry Koosman 38.97
22. Dean Chance 38.17
23. Pablo López 35.12
24. Ervin Santana 34.98
25. Eddie Guardado 33.35
26. Juan Rincón 31.31
27. José Berríos 31.11
28. Caleb Thielbar 30.19
29. Greg Swindell 30.02
30. Bill Campbell 29.94
31. Tom Hall 28.90
32. Jim Merritt 28.53
33. Pat Neshek 27.57

Very interesting list. Somewhat surprisingly, Jim Kaat and Glen Perkins do not make the Top 33.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

RE24 (or run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states) may sound like a computer error or a random assortment of letters and numbers, but the actual logic and mechanisms behind the statistic make it extremely useful for fans and analysts. It is based on the concept of run expectancy, which provides the average number of expected runs per inning given the current number of outs and placement of baserunners. The number “24” refers to the potential number of base-out states (zero, one, two outs and eight different baserunner arrangements).

Since run expectancy tells you the number of expected runs, any number of runs created above or below that value can be treated as runs above or below average for the batter or pitcher depending on the outcome of each plate appearance. Unlike wRAA, wRC, or Batting Runs, RE24 is context-dependent and assigns more credit for hits with men on base than with the bases empty. With league average set to 0, hitters with positive RE24 are creating more runs than we would expect given the situations they have been placed in and pitchers with positive numbers are preventing more runs than average given the situations in which they have been placed.


I like this stat. It shows how effective a pitcher is when there is more importance on getting an out or getting out of an inning (runners on base and # of outs in the inning are both factored in).

Thielbar does well here because he's often put into "tight spots," but usually with a lefty vs lefty pitcher advantage. I'm more impressed with the starting pitchers that excel in this stat. Radke ranks very high. He clearly had an ability to bear down. It also makes sense that he gave up many of his runs on solo HR, which is what he was really remembered for.

I'm a little shocked at how high Guerrier ranks. Not surprised Bob Wells isn't on the list.



this is what I call the very definition of over analyzing shit

No, you just haven't taken the initiative to understand it.


Nonsence. I don't need to understand it. You described it and it all became convoluted nonsence. It all looks like just another way for you to say Scott Baker was better than most people think.

Or something like that.

I don't need this nonsense to know Johan Santana was really good. Or many of the guys on this list.

_____________________________

All my life I thought air was free, until I bought a bag of chips.
Post #: 817
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 2:43:27 PM   
Trekgeekscott


Posts: 40910
Joined: 7/16/2007
From: United Federation of Planets
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

I have an idea. Divide the RE24 number by # of innings pitched as a Twin. That should get you to the most dominant. Appears it would be Duran. Gray would also be very high.



That proves this crap is nonsense. Johan was the most dominant.

Come on Matt.

_____________________________

All my life I thought air was free, until I bought a bag of chips.
Post #: 818
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 4:47:10 PM   
twinsfan


Posts: 67394
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

I have an idea. Divide the RE24 number by # of innings pitched as a Twin. That should get you to the most dominant. Appears it would be Duran. Gray would also be very high.



That proves this crap is nonsense. Johan was the most dominant.

Come on Matt.

As the rankings show...

_____________________________

Wokewashed
Post #: 819
RE: General Twins Talk - 8/25/2026 4:57:01 PM   
TJSweens


Posts: 46787
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline
Matt will embrace any half-assed metrics and rankings that fangraphs puts out.

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"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 820
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