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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond)

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RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 2:11:00 PM   
John Childress


Posts: 42898
Joined: 7/15/2007
Status: offline 		Stats are one PART of the puzzle

There is also leadership
Wins
elevating people

Tons of factors

Peyton Manning - his big game performances are too bad to be considered the best
Steve Young - perhaps the most talented but, again, too many bad playoff performances
Tom Brady - real close, would like to see him win one SB without cheating
Warren Moon - yeah, he doesn't belong in this group but I put him here anyway because I think if he had of been allowed to go to the NFL out of college and got in the right situation he would be with these guys
John Elway - he was so up and down in his prime and didn't really take off as a passer until Terrell Davis
Brett Favre - maybe if he had Holmgren to reign him in his whole career he would be there

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 3201
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 2:12:47 PM   
John Childress


Posts: 42898
Joined: 7/15/2007
Status: offline 		Also, I think you have to have two classes for the NFL

Pre 1978 (?) when they made the rule changes to benefit offense and especially passing
Post 1978


Pre 1978

Unitas
Tarkenton
Stabler
Bradshaw
Van Brocklin
etc.

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 3202
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 2:22:27 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33590
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

Also, I think you have to have two classes for the NFL

Pre 1978 (?) when they made the rule changes to benefit offense and especially passing
Post 1978


Pre 1978

Unitas
Tarkenton
Stabler
Bradshaw
Van Brocklin
etc.

Those were good ones. What about Slingin' Sammy Baugh?
Post #: 3203
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 2:36:21 PM   
John Childress


Posts: 42898
Joined: 7/15/2007
Status: offline 		Very good

I didn't see enough film on him

I know before Montana most folks put Unitas at the top

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 3204
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 2:39:49 PM   
John Childress


Posts: 42898
Joined: 7/15/2007
Status: offline 		Steve Young is not even close to Montana

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounSt00/gamelog/post/

Almost every year - save 94 - he had really bad playoff losses where he tossed multiple picks

His QB rating dropped over 10 points in the post season

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 3205
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 2:58:39 PM   
Rob Viking

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

Steve Young is not even close to Montana

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounSt00/gamelog/post/

Almost every year - save 94 - he had really bad playoff losses where he tossed multiple picks

His QB rating dropped over 10 points in the post season


He also had to face the Cowboys or Packers every season when both teams were at their best.
Post #: 3206
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 3:01:32 PM   
John Childress


Posts: 42898
Joined: 7/15/2007
Status: offline 		True

Joe went against the Bears and Giants in their prime

Also good in the NFC were the Vikings and Wash

I think Joe had better competition

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 3207
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 3:14:13 PM   
djskillz


Posts: 56863
Joined: 7/17/2007
From: Nashville, TN
Status: offline 		Good stuff, JC. Joe is the best by far IMO.

In the conversation for #2 are Brady, Elway, Unitas, Marino, Peyton, and Young to me. Could make arguments for any of them, but I'd probably take Brady or Elway 2nd.

When you're talking about the all-time best you're splitting hairs so it's not like you're saying "Manning sucks"; it's just that when you're talking about THIS conversation wins have to matter at some point.

< Message edited by djskillz -- 9/4/2014 3:15:19 PM >

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Post #: 3208
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 3:27:08 PM   
Guest
 Yep guys, Joe Montana was impervious to high pressure moments.

The best I ever saw....his skill sets remind me of Teddy...

_____________________________

I am collecting for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society in memory of my fiance who passed away on 9/9/2006. If anyone would like to donate just go to http://pages.lightthenight.org/mn/TwinCiti09/SMiller Any and all donations will be greatly appreciated.
  Post #: 3209
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 3:52:31 PM   
John Childress


Posts: 42898
Joined: 7/15/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Good stuff, JC. Joe is the best by far IMO.

In the conversation for #2 are Brady, Elway, Unitas, Marino, Peyton, and Young to me. Could make arguments for any of them, but I'd probably take Brady or Elway 2nd.

When you're talking about the all-time best you're splitting hairs so it's not like you're saying "Manning sucks"; it's just that when you're talking about THIS conversation wins have to matter at some point.


Agreed!

Manning is in the top 5
for sure

But Joe was on another level versus all these other guys and it was because his performance increased the bigger the game was

He really only had 2 bad playoff losses

86 Giants
87 Vikings

Then he came back and won 2 more Super Bowls

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 3210
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 3:54:00 PM   
John Childress


Posts: 42898
Joined: 7/15/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

Yep guys, Joe Montana was impervious to high pressure moments.

The best I ever saw....his skill sets remind me of Teddy...


You know, I agree!

Just like Joe, Teddy is a little undersized, doesn't have a cannon arm, but is extremely cool under pressure and accurate on short and medium passes

Obviously you don't compare a rookie to Joe, but I just did!

_____________________________

No more acceptance of mediocrity!!!! EVER!
Post #: 3211
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 5:44:05 PM   
thebigo


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Joined: 7/14/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RBIrving

Please notice I did not say Peyton was the best ever, I simply said he belongs in the conversation. Montana is hard to overlook as the best, even more so because he played on arguably the best offense in the history of the NFL.

I have 7 reasons to discount the value of the Super Bowl in the discussion as to who is the best.

Trent Dilfer
Jim Plunkett
Doug Williams
Jeff Hostetler
Mark Rypien
Brad Johnson
Joe Namath

All these guys have Super Bowl rings and not a single one of them deserves to be in the conversation as to who is the best. Never forget that football is a team sport and no game is won or lost based on the play of a single player. Peyton Manning is a throwback as he is truly a general on the field, he directs the offense from the field of play. If the choice is this season is between Eli and Peyton there's simply no doubt that Eli is clearly done and that remains to be seen with Peyton.


Since Peyton threw for 55 TDs last year, then if it "remains to be seen with Peyton whether he is done or not", you would pretty much have to say that about every player in the league.
Post #: 3212
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 5:52:59 PM   
thebigo


Posts: 28246
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

These are facts

PM career

491 TDs
219 INTs
97.2 QB rating (110 with Denver)
7.7 Yards per attempt (8.2 with Denver)

PM SB I

25 or 38, 247 yards, 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 81.8 passer rating

PM SB II

31 or 45, 333 yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 88.5 passer rating

PM SB III

34 or 49, 280 yards, 5.71 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 2 INT, 73.5 passer rating


It is a fact that Manning significantly underperforms in the Super Bowl

If you can't deal with facts then don't debate

I don't argue that Mannings SuperBowl performances have not been as good as his average performances. Once again Good or Great ds and small sample size. I don't expect Manning to play any different in SuperBowls than any other game. Now I know there is this thing about raising your level for the big games but every player on the field should be raising their level for the big game. It should be a wash.


Generally speaking teams that make it to the SB have damn good defenses, so the opposing QB in general will not play as well as if they were playing an average defense. The point seems obvious, but seems to be missed in this discussion.
Post #: 3213
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 6:25:33 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33590
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

These are facts

PM career

491 TDs
219 INTs
97.2 QB rating (110 with Denver)
7.7 Yards per attempt (8.2 with Denver)

PM SB I

25 or 38, 247 yards, 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 81.8 passer rating

PM SB II

31 or 45, 333 yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 88.5 passer rating

PM SB III

34 or 49, 280 yards, 5.71 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 2 INT, 73.5 passer rating


It is a fact that Manning significantly underperforms in the Super Bowl

If you can't deal with facts then don't debate

I don't argue that Mannings SuperBowl performances have not been as good as his average performances. Once again Good or Great ds and small sample size. I don't expect Manning to play any different in SuperBowls than any other game. Now I know there is this thing about raising your level for the big games but every player on the field should be raising their level for the big game. It should be a wash.


Generally speaking teams that make it to the SB have damn good defenses, so the opposing QB in general will not play as well as if they were playing an average defense. The point seems obvious, but seems to be missed in this discussion.

hey BigO. Thanks for the support. You did notice that I had mentioned it when I said Good or Great Ds affect his SuperBowl performance.
Post #: 3214
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 7:12:27 PM   
DavidAOlson

 

Posts: 17395
Joined: 8/2/2007
Status: online 		FiveThirtyEight just put up their review of the Broncos division.

Short answer: after you account for the strength of the opponents in the playoffs, Manning personally outperforms expectations. Part of his "problem" is that he is good enough to carry a weak team into the playoffs. The article rips Rodgers and Rivers for being too conservative when their team is losing big and the QB should be taking chances.

(Aside, the article also has a comparison of AD and Jamaal Charles that might get some people going.)

quote:

Yet there are “whispers” that the Seattle Seahawks defense may have finally exposed Manning’s limitations. Doubting Manning is an ancient sport, and though it has changed somewhat over time, it’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

The last time Manning failed to win at least 10 games was 2001 (when Russell Wilson was still in middle school) yet Manning is only 11-12 in the postseason. Critics often say Manning is a good “regular season quarterback,” but not a great “playoff quarterback.” The theory is that there’s something about Manning’s game that makes him great at beating up on weak opponents, but that can’t handle the tougher, more complex defenses found commonly in playoff opponents.

I’ll confess, before looking into this myself, I thought it was a plausible-sounding theory.1 But for the most part, the reason Manning has had a harder time winning games in the playoffs is the same as it is for virtually everyone else: He has faced tougher opponents and tougher defenses. While it’s true that his teams haven’t won quite as many games as expected, and that he performs a little worse in the playoffs than in the regular season, he has actually performed better against playoff defenses that we would expect given the strength of those defenses.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nfl-preview-the-broncos-versus-the-hopefuls/

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I give myself very good advice, but I very seldom follow it. --- Alice
Post #: 3215
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 7:30:31 PM   
JT2

 

Posts: 13742
Joined: 2/15/2011
From: United States
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

These are facts

PM career

491 TDs
219 INTs
97.2 QB rating (110 with Denver)
7.7 Yards per attempt (8.2 with Denver)

PM SB I

25 or 38, 247 yards, 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 81.8 passer rating

PM SB II

31 or 45, 333 yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 88.5 passer rating

PM SB III

34 or 49, 280 yards, 5.71 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 2 INT, 73.5 passer rating


It is a fact that Manning significantly underperforms in the Super Bowl

If you can't deal with facts then don't debate

I don't argue that Mannings SuperBowl performances have not been as good as his average performances. Once again Good or Great ds and small sample size. I don't expect Manning to play any different in SuperBowls than any other game. Now I know there is this thing about raising your level for the big games but every player on the field should be raising their level for the big game. It should be a wash.


Generally speaking teams that make it to the SB have damn good defenses, so the opposing QB in general will not play as well as if they were playing an average defense. The point seems obvious, but seems to be missed in this discussion.



All the more reason it is crystal clear that Montana is ahead of the rest.
Post #: 3216
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 8:00:31 PM   
djskillz


Posts: 56863
Joined: 7/17/2007
From: Nashville, TN
Status: offline 		Agreed guys. Probably covered already but didn't he have ZERO int's in all of his Super Bowls? That's as impressive as anything against those defenses.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Post #: 3217
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 8:05:28 PM   
David Levine


Posts: 76802
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Agreed guys. Probably covered already but didn't he have ZERO int's in all of his Super Bowls? That's as impressive as anything against those defenses.


Yes. 11 TDs, 0 INTs.
Post #: 3218
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 8:07:47 PM   
djskillz


Posts: 56863
Joined: 7/17/2007
From: Nashville, TN
Status: offline 		Thanks DL.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Post #: 3219
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 8:08:37 PM   
JT2

 

Posts: 13742
Joined: 2/15/2011
From: United States
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Thanks DL.



You really have to let that sink in. Pretty damn amazing.
Post #: 3220
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 8:15:24 PM   
David Levine


Posts: 76802
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Thanks DL.



You really have to let that sink in. Pretty damn amazing.


68%, 286 yards per game, 11 TDs, 0 INTs, 127.8 QBR. Plus 17 carries, 105 yards and 2 more TDs.
Post #: 3221
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 8:23:30 PM   
djskillz


Posts: 56863
Joined: 7/17/2007
From: Nashville, TN
Status: offline 		Tough to ever top, really. When you think about that he did that FOUR times. It's almost like Michael Jordan in basketball. I've never though Michael was the best ever and have other preferences (Magic/Kareem/others) as I think that is a little more nuanced but it's always been a pretty fantastic argument that he's 6-0 and never lost a game 7.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Post #: 3222
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 8:23:51 PM   
thebigo


Posts: 28246
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

These are facts

PM career

491 TDs
219 INTs
97.2 QB rating (110 with Denver)
7.7 Yards per attempt (8.2 with Denver)

PM SB I

25 or 38, 247 yards, 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 81.8 passer rating

PM SB II

31 or 45, 333 yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 88.5 passer rating

PM SB III

34 or 49, 280 yards, 5.71 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 2 INT, 73.5 passer rating


It is a fact that Manning significantly underperforms in the Super Bowl

If you can't deal with facts then don't debate

I don't argue that Mannings SuperBowl performances have not been as good as his average performances. Once again Good or Great ds and small sample size. I don't expect Manning to play any different in SuperBowls than any other game. Now I know there is this thing about raising your level for the big games but every player on the field should be raising their level for the big game. It should be a wash.


Generally speaking teams that make it to the SB have damn good defenses, so the opposing QB in general will not play as well as if they were playing an average defense. The point seems obvious, but seems to be missed in this discussion.



All the more reason it is crystal clear that Montana is ahead of the rest.


Of course you have to look at the specifics, in Montana's 4 SBs the defenses he faced averaged an NFL ranking of #12.25, when the league only had 28 teams. Meanwhile Montana's SF defenses those years had an average ranking of #4.75
Post #: 3223
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 9:36:01 PM   
Guest
quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

Yep guys, Joe Montana was impervious to high pressure moments.

The best I ever saw....his skill sets remind me of Teddy...


You know, I agree!

Just like Joe, Teddy is a little undersized, doesn't have a cannon arm, but is extremely cool under pressure and accurate on short and medium passes

Obviously you don't compare a rookie to Joe, but I just did!



I hate to agree with your agreement , but the physical comparisons are spot on, however along with that I think his greatest similarity may be his ability to stand in, take the hit, and deliver accurately.

Big balls I guess is what they have in common....Teddy is to be determined obviously...

_____________________________

I am collecting for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society in memory of my fiance who passed away on 9/9/2006. If anyone would like to donate just go to http://pages.lightthenight.org/mn/TwinCiti09/SMiller Any and all donations will be greatly appreciated.
  Post #: 3224
RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) - 9/4/2014 11:12:53 PM   
hagar

 

Posts: 2756
Joined: 3/3/2014
From: fresburg, ca
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

You can't be the best ever when you consistently underperform in the clutch

quote:

Offense wins games, defense wins championships.


How come Montana didn't choke in the Super Bowl?

Denver had the #1 defense in the NFL in 1989

Joe put up 55 points

Shockingly other QBs are able to maintain or ELEVATE their performance in the biggest game

In 1988 he put 34 points on the #1 defense in the NFL - the Vikings.

The excuses for Peytons subpar SB performances have run out

I think Montana is the best QB in the biggest games that I've ever seen. I totally forgot about his SB win over the Vikings in 88 though.
Post #: 3225
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