SoMnFan
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Sorry, its long, but I've been waiting on this one.
For years, the NHL’s unrestricted free-agent classes were on the decline. Teams locked up their young players to long-term deals and a consistently rising cap meant there was usually room to do the deals they wanted to do.
This year, it’s different.
There’s a superstar in Steven Stamkos, who may still hit unrestricted free agency, which is normally unheard of in the cap era. Even if he signs in Tampa Bay, there’s still a lot of difference-making talent on the market.
The challenge is finding a landing spot for these players when teams are so short on salary-cap space.
“There’s not as much money available, but there’s also a handful of really good players,” said an NHL agent of several prominent players. “This year’s crop is much better than it was last year.”
Here’s a look at this year’s top 25 unrestricted free agents, along with some projected destinations:
Matz1. Steven Stamkos, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
It’s amazing how many opinions there are regarding what will happen with Stamkos, which is a credit to how tight his agency, Newport Sports, and the Lightning have kept contract talks. It also might be an indication of how up in the air this negotiation still is.
“There’s a lot of ways for things to go in a short period of time,” said one NHL source.
That said, you don’t need to tap Tampa's phones to understand just how squeezed the Lightning are in terms of cap space.
“I don’t think he’s going to sign [in Tampa],” said one GM, pointing out that the Lightning have stars like Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov to sign as well in the next year. “And Tyler Johnson is coming. And Alex Killorn is coming.”
And Ben Bishop. And Ondrej Palat.
Both Lightning GM Steve Yzerman and Stamkos appear sincere in their efforts to get a deal done, it’s just about making the puzzle pieces fit. The Lightning are the only team that can offer him an eight-year deal, but it’s possible that he'd get more in total salary on a seven-year deal in free agency than he’d earn in Tampa.
If he goes to the market, it’s not unreasonable to suggest he’d get $11 million per season on a seven-year deal, simply because a player of this caliber rarely hits unrestricted free agency. For him to get to $77 million over eight years from the Lightning, the team would have to offer $9.625 million per season, which may be higher than it can do.
If Tampa Bay can’t pull it off, the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens could all jump into the action. If the New York Rangers pull off a major overhaul and move enough salary, they could be another option.
There will be a ton of interest in Stamkos if he hits the market, because the only other way to get a player of his caliber is to bottom out and try to win the lottery.
“Those great young players -- they get signed,” said one NHL source. “There hasn’t been a player this good, this young, getting to free agency in a long time.”
Matz2. Milan Lucic, F, Los Angeles Kings
GM Dean Lombardi loves Lucic. He gave up a lot to land him and he was a perfect fit in Los Angeles both on and off the ice. The Kings are expected to make one last push for Lucic, but they have to decide just how comfortable they are going long term with a player whose style of play means it’s entirely possible that his body won't last the length of the contract.
Complicating the situation further is that the Kings already have a couple bad contracts on the books. In a cap system, you can have one, maybe two bad deals. But you can’t make a series of long-term mistakes.
So Lucic may end up being a luxury the Kings can’t afford. He’d be a great fit in Edmonton, with a team that's looking to get harder to play against and add some size to their talent pool at forward.
Matz3. Kyle Okposo, F, New York Islanders
Okposo will go to market, where there will be plenty of interest in the rare 28-year-old top-six forward. Okposo averaged 0.81 points per game last season, up over his career average of 0.70, and it was the third consecutive season he was over 0.80.
For teams looking for younger offensive wingers not named Steven Stamkos, Okposo is the top target.
Like nearly every Minnesota native, he’d love to play in Minnesota, but that might not make sense for a Wild team that isn’t exactly flush with cap space. The Florida Panthers, Sabres and Red Wings could also make a bid for Okposo.
Matz4. Alex Goligoski, D, Arizona Coyotes
Arizona GM John Chayka’s first big move was trading for the rights to Goligoski, a versatile defenseman who would go a long way toward shoring up the Coyotes' defense behind No. 1 Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
Goligoski is visiting the Coyotes this week, and the new management staff will try to convince him not to test the open market.
“We’ll just let this thing play out,” said his agent, Ben Hankinson. “And then go from there.”
It’s actually a nice fit for him -- he’d be a part of a team on the rise and would have another defenseman, in Ekman-Larsson, to help with the tough minutes. He didn’t have that luxury in Dallas, where coach Lindy Ruff employed him against the toughest competition all season. Despite that, he still had better possession numbers than his fellow Dallas defensemen.
If he can’t get a deal done in Arizona, he’ll have options on the open market since he will be the best defenseman available. The Sabres, Oilers, Red Wings and Bruins are all possibilities.
Matz5. Keith Yandle, D, Florida Panthers
There was a sense that the Rangers wanted to re-sign Yandle but would have to move money to make it happen. The fact that they traded him to the Panthers is a sign that they weren’t optimistic that they could make the deals necessary to pull it off.
The Panthers have been aggressively re-tooling a team that won their division this past season, and Yandle would be a great piece of the puzzle, especially as a potential seconding-pair guy with Aaron Ekblad, who's getting the toughest assignments. The belief is that the Panthers will spend big this offseason, and getting a Yandle deal done would certainly be a big step in that direction.
If Florida can’t close a deal with Yandle, he will be in high demand on the open market, especially if Goligoski is taken off the table before July 1. There will be no shortage of suitors, including teams like Buffalo, Edmonton and Boston. The Kings are also a team to watch if Lucic doesn’t end up re-signing with Los Angeles. The lack of a Lucic deal would free up space for GM Dean Lombardi to address his defense, and he’s been a Yandle supporter in the past.
Matz6. Loui Eriksson, F, Boston Bruins
The Bruins are making an effort to re-sign Eriksson after he had his best season in Boston since the trade for Tyler Seguin, but the expectation is that talks will eventually end over the term of the deal.
Eriksson will likely get a deal of at least five years on the open market, with plenty of teams interested in the strong, two-way play of the veteran Swede. He’s always been a good possession player, and he’s proven his game is effective both in the East and West.
The Vancouver Canucks have long been rumored to be interested, but they won’t be alone. Nashville kicked the tires on Eriksson at the trade deadline and would be a nice fit. He could also land with the Kings or Ducks.
Matz7. David Backes, F, St. Louis Blues
Backes was fantastic for the Blues during the playoffs, finishing with seven goals and 14 points in helping lead St. Louis to the Western Conference finals. It certainly made him look wise for turning down the Blues’ three-year offer last summer. His strong play will net him a longer-term deal in free agency -- the but it likely won’t be in St. Louis.
GM Doug Armstrong made it clear that getting restricted free agent Jaden Schwartz signed was the priority. That hasn’t happened yet, which may be holding up Backes talks.
“All it takes to change is one phone call,” said one source.
The wild card in this situation is that other teams have also shown strong interest in defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, which is enhanced by his willingness to sign a long-term deal with the team that trades for him, assuming he sees the team as a good fit.
So there are definitely moving parts at play here, and since this is likely Backes’ last big contract, he won't want to leave a lot of money on the table.
Matz8. Mikkel Boedker, F, Colorado Avalanche
As my colleague Pierre LeBrun reported last week, it looks like Boedker -- who finally has a chance to pick his own team -- will go to market while keeping the Avalanche as one of the options.
Western Conference teams looking to get faster will no doubt be intrigued by Boedker, because he’s one of the best skaters available. Plus, he’s comfortable playing in the West with the bigger teams.
At the deadline, the three teams that showed the most interest in trading for Boedker were all in the West -- the Sharks, Blues and Ducks all took a run at him. It wouldn’t be surprising if one or more of those three circled back and tried again.
Boedker gets bonus points for hitting the market at 26 years old.
9. Jimmy Vesey, F, Buffalo Sabres
Vesey can’t be signed until August 15, but because of his age, he has the potential to be a one of the most important signings on this list after the top-tier guys. Vesey is just 23 years old, will get a cap-friendly entry-level deal and could immediately plug into the top-six forward group of any team that signs him.
The Sabres got a head start on other teams by sending one of their many third-round picks to Nashville for negotiating rights. Vesey is close with Jack Eichel and shares an agent with him, which considerably raises the likelihood that he signs with Buffalo. On the other hand, Vesey’s agent did hint after the trade that they won’t sign a deal until testing the market.
He’s not the fastest skater on the planet, but he makes up for it with his hockey IQ. He has great vision and is a great hockey thinker.
Matz10. Andrew Ladd, F, Chicago Blackhawks
Finances and salary space dictate that Ladd’s return to Chicago will be a short-lived one.
“They can’t sign him even if they wanted to,” said one source.
Now it’s about where he’s going to spend the next portion of his career. His next deal won’t reach the six-year, $36 million offer he turned down with the Jets, but the upside is that he gets to pick where he plays.
He’s the perfect veteran player to bring in for a young team learning how to win. He’d be a great fit in Buffalo, which could use a veteran winger with some size and physicality. Even a return to Carolina would make sense for both sides. If the Kings don’t sign Lucic, Ladd would be a cheaper alternative, and the Kings liked him at the deadline.
Matz11. Frans Nielsen, F, New York Islanders
According to Newsday’s Arthur Staple, the Islanders continue to be in conversations with the Nielsen camp about a long-term deal, so it’s possible that he returns to the Islanders. If not, he’s going to be a popular player on July 1. There aren’t a lot of centers on this list, and he’s a versatile, responsible, two-way centerman who several GMs really like.
The 32-year-old Denmark native registered his second career 20-goal season in 2015-16 and also eclipsed the 50-point mark for the second time in his career.
Matz12. Jason Demers, D, Dallas Stars
As of late last week, talks between Demers and the Stars were quiet, with GM Jim Nill apparently hesitant to commit the kind of dollars to his unrestricted free-agent defensemen that they could get on the open market.
Many in hockey circles believe that the Stars will be a popular destination for free-agent defensemen, since Dallas has become an attractive place to play for several reasons, including tax advantages, the team's style of play and expected success, and a great dressing room.
Demers would be a sneaky good pickup for a team looking to bolster its defense. He’s not a big offensive producer, but he’s going to get you between 20 and 30 points per season. He’s a right-handed shot. He’s also just 28 years old and a strong possession defenseman. The Stars controlled 54.7 of the even-strength shot attempts when he was on the ice after coming over from San Jose, and his ice time grew to a career-high 20:52 last season.
There’s not a better right-handed shot defenseman available, a nice niche for Demers to lead.
Matz13. Brian Campbell, D, Florida Panthers
Campbell’s point production has slowed as he’s moved into his late 30s, but he remains a very effective puck-moving defenseman, a commodity in today’s game. The Panthers would like to bring him back, especially considering they controlled 52.7 percent of the even-strength shot attempts with him on the ice -- and he generated a plus-5.7 relative Corsi for percentage -- a number not overlooked by a front office increasingly fueled by analytics. But the trade for Keith Yandle indicates that Florida may be ready to move on.
If he leaves Florida, he may return to Chicago if he’s willing to leave some money on the table.
Matz14. Troy Brouwer, F, St. Louis Blues
There might not be a player on this list who helped himself more during the playoffs than Brouwer. He was outstanding for the Blues, seemingly always in the right position to score big goals during the St. Louis run to the Western Conference finals.
Brouwer was everything GM Doug Armstrong hoped for when he moved T.J. Oshie to acquire him. He immediately made an impact in the dressing room. He scored goals in the biggest games of the year. That’s the payoff when you add Brouwer to your roster.
After scoring 18 goals during the regular season, Brouwer put up eight in 20 playoff games. He was also effective on the St. Louis power play during the postseason.
He’s a candidate for offseason overpayment because of his big spring, but teams know they’re getting size, physicality, experience and leadership when he walks in the room. For teams that miss out on Backes or Lucic, Brouwer becomes a reasonable alternative.
15. Alexander Radulov, F, UFA (KHL)
Radulov is an absolute wild card. He’s interested in returning to the NHL at 29 years old, and he is coming off a big season in the KHL in which he registered 65 points in 53 games for CSKA Moscow. He had 47 goals in 154 career games in an NHL career that ended badly in Nashville.
He’s loaded with talent, and some NHL teams are definitely interested, but one team wasn’t wild about his initial contract request.
The ideal situation would be bringing him in on a one-year deal to re-establish his value, but if enough teams are interested, he might get the multiyear deal he seeks.
Matz16. Eric Staal, F, New York Rangers
The Staal camp hasn’t ruled out a return to the Rangers, with the two sides expected to talk again in New York, but ultimately it’s going to come down to fit for Staal. The 6-foot-4, 31-year-old center believes he’s a top-six forward, and there are definitely teams out there that are willing to give him that opportunity.
He had just six points in 20 games with the Rangers after the trade from Carolina, and his point production has declined from 1.10 per game in the lockout-shortened 2013 season to 0.47 points per game last season.
That said, this is a former Olympian, a player who has been part of Hart Trophy conversations and Selke Trophy vote tallies, and a former team captain.
A team like the Wild, who liked him at the deadline, might be the perfect landing spot for Staal.
The biggest factors for Staal will be fit and opportunity.
Matz17. Dan Hamhuis, D, Vancouver Canucks
A return to Vancouver certainly made sense for Hamhuis, who has deep roots in that community, but the trade for Erik Gudbranson seemed to put an end to that, since it pushes him down the depth chart in Vancouver.
“He’s not ready to be a third-pair defenseman,” said one source.
He’s probably not a guy who will put up 30 points anymore, but Hamhuis is still good for well over 20 effective minutes per game at 33 years old. He’s always been a solid possession defenseman, and the Canucks controlled over 50 percent of the even-strength shot attempts when he was on the ice last season. That's especially impressive considering the Canucks were No. 27 in the league overall in that stat, controlling just 47.2 of the shot attempts.
Dallas and Chicago were interested at the trade deadline, and both teams should be looking to add on defense again this offseason. Toronto could use a veteran defenseman, and Mike Babcock knows Hamhuis well from their time together with Hockey Canada.
Matz18. Kris Russell, D, Dallas Stars
Russell is part of the group of unrestricted-free-agent defensemen in Dallas, and as of Friday, talks were very quiet between Russell and the Stars.
“He loved it in Dallas, he loved it in Calgary,” Russell’s agent Allain Roy said when we chatted over the weekend. “If Dallas is willing to make an offer, we’re willing to listen.”
Russell is an Alberta native, so you can’t rule out a return to Calgary if the Flames are interested in bringing him back. Edmonton is another possibility, but there are plenty of teams that need to upgrade defensively and could use a defenseman with his skating ability.
Matz19. Darren Helm, F, Detroit Red Wings
The timing for Helm potentially hitting the market is a good one. Speed will be at a premium this offseason as teams look to keep up in an NHL that is evolving to a faster game every year, and Helm is as good a skater is there is out there.
He’s an asset to the penalty kill, can win faceoffs consistently and would be a strong No. 3 center on a team looking to upgrade its speed. He’s good to pop in 13-15 goals per season, which would be higher if his hands were at the same level as his legs.
Detroit still hopes to sign him, but the closer he gets to free agency, the higher the likelihood is that he walks.
Another strong option for teams looking to add a good skater to their bottom six would be Kings forward Trevor Lewis. Lombardi has been focused on getting Lucic signed, which has made it hard to get a sense of how much money will be left over for others. Lewis is a strong skater, is effective on the forecheck and has big-game experience.
Matz20. David Perron, F, Anaheim Ducks
Heading into this week, there had been no significant discussions between Perron and the Ducks, but the two sides are expected to have conversations in the coming days heading into the draft.
After struggling in Pittsburgh, Perron was a fantastic fit in Anaheim, where his ability to play with Ryan Getzlaf filled a hole that’s been a problem for the Ducks through the years. He put up 20 points in 28 games, and Anaheim’s cycle game was a great fit for Perron.
The Ducks, like most teams, will look to get faster, but you can’t overlook how good a fit Anaheim has been for Perron, or the success he's had there.
Matz21. Radim Vrbata, F, Vancouver Canucks
Vrbata scored just 13 goals in 63 games last season for the Canucks, his lowest total during a full season since he was 22 years old. It didn’t help that he shot just 6.5 percent, well below the 11.6 percent he posted the season before, when he was an All-Star and finished with 31 goals.
The length of the contract would have to be right for the 35-year-old, but he’s a nice bounce-back candidate who probably wouldn’t break the bank. Jiri Hudler and Lee Stempniak are other veteran wingers available this offseason.
Matz22. James Reimer, G, San Jose Sharks
This isn’t a great unrestricted-free-agent market for goaltending, with the best goalies available via trade. But Reimer is certainly an intriguing option in goal, especially considering his success in San Jose this season.
A strong finish with the Sharks bumped his season save percentage up to .922.
“There was a bit of an adjustment at the start,” Reimer said of his transition to San Jose. “Just getting used to how we play and how we defend… but it’s been fun. It’s a bunch of really good guys.”
Was it fun enough to pass on an opportunity to start elsewhere?
That’s the big question for Reimer, who would be locked in as the No. 2 goalie in San Jose to Martin Jones, who worked his way onto Conn Smythe ballots with a big finish in the playoffs.
Matz23. Shane Doan, F, Arizona Coyotes
The expectation is that Doan will re-sign in Arizona after putting up 28 goals last season, his most productive goal-scoring year since 2008-09. He’s the perfect leader to have around for a team transitioning back from rebuilding into a team that expects to make serious strides in 2016-17.
Matz24. Matt Martin, F, New York Islanders
Martin was part of the league’s most-respected fourth line in New York, and he will end up getting more money than people realize. He ends each season with a ton of hits, and he’s extremely durable for a player who plays as physically as he does. He played every game during the lockout-shortened season, and at least 78 games in the four seasons around it.
He may stay with the Islanders, where he enjoys playing, but teams looking to add size, like the Flames or Canadiens, may lure him away.
Matz25. Michael Grabner, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
Like Boedker and Helm, Grabner enters the market at the right time. He’s an elite skater who immediately pumps speed into the lineup of any team that signs him. He’s coming off the least-productive season of his career, in terms of goal-scoring, but he also shot just 7.8 percent, so he’s a nice buy-low candidate. He has a 30-goal season on the books, and even when he’s not scoring, his speed is a threat.
He’s also a weapon on the penalty kill, where he has 11 career short-handed goals.
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