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http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/9260
Banning defensive shifts is an absurd idea
By Buster Olney | ESPN Insider
At the start of every round of batting practice, hitters of all shapes and sizes and power potential are expected to drop two bunts, whether it's Billy Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera, Dee Gordon or Jose Abreu. Depending on the player, this is sometimes done haphazardly, more as a part of the warmup process -- for the batting-practice pitcher as well as the hitter -- than as actual preparation.
After that, most hitters are expected to swing as if executing a hit-and-run, slapping the ball to the opposite field as a runner, real or imagined, breaks from first base.
These are elements of play that have been mostly ignored over the past 30 years, with most teams expecting the majority of their hitters to wait patiently for strikes before looking to drive the ball. Walks and homers became the building blocks of the best offenses.
But there was a precipitous drop in offense last season, in an era when radical defensive shifts are becoming standard operating procedure, and more and more teams have had discussions this winter about what counter attack to take. Some teams have spent more time talking about bunting -- about evaluating situations in which a bunt attempt could be appropriate within current climate, while also placing a greater focus on identifying players less likely to be constricted by a shift.
This has become part of the ebb and flow in the tides of baseball offense, following the time when pitchers first started throwing overhand, then the deadball era, then the offensive explosion in the 1930s, the run-production decline of the '60s that led to the lowering of the mound, and, for about 20 years, the steroid era.
So it's startling that new commissioner Rob Manfred might embrace the idea of banning defensive shifts, if necessary. He acknowledged that in an interview with Karl Ravech.
Here's a transcript of that portion of the conversation, so you get the complete context:
Ravech: If you had a broad brush, and the goal was to be as radical as you can be with regard to the way the game is played on the field, what would you do?
Manfred: Well, I think that … I would think about two sets of changes. The first is the set of changes we just talked about in, in terms of the pace of the game. And I would be aggressive about using the clock over the long haul. I think it's a helpful thing in terms of moving the game along. I think the second set of changes that I would look at is related. And that relates to injecting additional offense in the game. For example, things like eliminating shifts. I would be open to those sorts of ideas.
Ravech: Forward thinking, Sabermetric defensive shifts?
Manfred: That's what I'm talking about, yes.
Ravech: Let's eliminate that?
Manfred: Uh-huh.
Ravech: So do you then draw lines by which your second baseman --
Manfred: Well, I think you need --
Ravech: … needs to stand or you can't go to the left side of the bag?
Manfred: I think it's the latter. You got to have somebody -- you know, you divide the number of players who have to be each side of second base.
This is a really, really bad idea that should be dismissed quickly, as it was by the general managers who discussed it in a meeting last fall. Some old-school teams that have yet to embrace shifts backed the idea, but the more progressive teams widely rejected it, and rightly so.
As teams increasingly used shifts in recent years, some frustrated hitters have privately advocated for this kind of rule change. In listening to the complaints, I must admit that it was sometimes difficult to stifle laughter, just as it was when pitchers griped about the shrinking outfield dimensions of the ballparks in the '90s. I heard stories about pitchers taking tape measures onto fields at places like Camden Yards, where pitchers have questioned whether the distance from home plate to left-center field is actually 364 feet.
[+] EnlargeMLB defensive shifts
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images
Defensive shifts might not be too well-liked by some of the game's top sluggers, but they're a necessary part of baseball's evolution.
But mostly, pitchers and catchers and managers and front offices did what generations of competitors in all sports have done for years: They adapted. And in baseball, those changes have taken on many forms, from drug-testing to the application of information. More pitchers started using the cut fastball, choosing to value movement over velocity. Managers and front offices have increasingly limited the vulnerability of their pitchers, removing tiring starting pitchers earlier, using more relievers for shorter stints, in which pitchers are throwing harder.
For more than a century, defensive alignments have been adjusted, but often blindly, given the lack of statistical data to support the common alterations. It became standard operating procedure for managers to position their infielders in or back, or to ask their corner infielders to guard the lines in the late innings, to have their outfielders play deeper when protecting a lead. Lou Boudreau famously employed a shift against Ted Williams in 1946, and since then, this has become a more common practice against sluggers intent on pulling the ball.
But in recent years, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers embraced two very simple questions: Where is the hitter most likely to hit the ball, and based on that, what is the best way to plot the fielders?
These questions are a long time coming; what took them so long to get to this moment, we can all wonder. They are part of the same family of inquiry that led hitters to anticipate where a pitcher will throw his next pitch and what that pitch will be, and a pitcher identifying the best way to beat the hitter standing at the plate.
Pushing for rules to restrict defensive positioning would be as absurd and antithetical to the game as informing pitchers they can throw only pitches that are straight, or telling hitters they aren't allowed to swing at a hanging curveball.
First, the practical application of the sort of rule that Manfred discussed with Ravech is bound to be far more complicated than the new commissioner envisions. Some folks in the sport quickly riffed through some of those on Sunday: Will there be a line in the middle of the field limiting the movements of the infielders? Could the shortstop or second baseman straddle the line, or merely keep a foot on the line? Could the infielder move as the pitch is being delivered? Who would monitor those movements? If there was a violation of the rule, what would be the remedy? Would the movement of the fielders be subject to review?
What if teams became more creative in shifting against a big slugger such as David Ortiz? What if the second baseman played in short right field, the center fielder moved close to the infield, the left fielder moved toward left center and the third baseman went to left field? Will all fielders be restricted in their pre-pitch movements? Will it be like an NBA foul shot, so that a player isn't allowed to cross a line until the pitch is released?
And what if a manager wanted to employ a five-man infield, which has been an oft-used strategy when a decisive run is at third base? Would that be allowed?
At the heart of this debate, there is this: Should teams no longer be allowed to place fielders where they think the hitter is going to hit the ball?
That's a thought that doesn't seem far removed from telling Andrelton Simmons he's not allowed to throw hard to first base, or telling Juan Lagares he isn't permitted to run too far for a fly ball in the gap.
There are other ways to adjust the game if offense is needed. Lowering the mound, for example, a proven elixir, or giving different instructions to the umpires about how to interpret the strike zone.
But if Charles Darwin were alive and applied the principle of survival of the fittest, he might see baseball as in the midst of a transition. He might argue that hitters need to adapt, understanding they aren't all as good as Ted Williams was and that there might be situations in which dropping a bunt to an open side of an infield is the appropriate response to a shift. Cubs manager Joe Maddon, who's managed against David Ortiz for years, talked recently about how Ortiz is one of the few hitters willing to take a bunt hit.
Over time, teams will inevitably assess a higher value on players -- those in the big leagues, in the minors and even amateurs -- who are capable of hitting the ball to all fields. Teams will evaluate how easily defensed a particular hitter is, and quite simply, they’ll look for batters who they believe will have the most effective swings for the current conditions. There are still seven fielders behind the pitcher, and no matter how they are aligned, there are vast areas for hitters to exploit.
The tides changed in recent years, and the castles hitters enjoyed for years have crumbled. Now it's up to hitters to respond, and for scouts and general managers to respond, rather than asking managers and fielders to effectively play with a hand tied behind their backs. It's not the baseball God-given right of sluggers to swing as hard as they can and get results, and Manfred shouldn't feel compelled to step in and protect them.
Former big leaguer Adam Everett talks about shifts, and the buy-in within the Astros' organization.
More on Manfred
• Jerry Crasnick writes about Manfred's long history in baseball before ascending to the throne.
• Manfred is determined to steer more young people to the sport, writes Tyler Kepner. Within this Kepner sidebar, Manfred addresses the issue of why Mets majority owner Fred Wilpon was made the chairman of Major League Baseball's finance committee at a time when the Mets have one of the smallest payrolls in the game and a lot of Mets fans are incredibly frustrated with the team's spending. From the piece:
"I understand the whole Madoff thing," Manfred said, "but before and since, Fred Wilpon was an extraordinarily successful businessman. The committee -- the finance and compensation committee -- really deals with two issues, principally: executive compensation, which he's more than capable of dealing with, and a central office budget. Obviously, to be a successful businessman, you have to know how to budget."
Around the league
• Major League Baseball in the Bay Area has Bud Selig's stamp, writes John Shea.
• Mike Napoli considered retiring, given a problem that plagued him. He is sleeping much better now, he says.
• Jered Weaver wants to pitch deeper into games, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
• The Brewers are discussing a reunion with K-Rod, again. That makes sense. He wants to be a closer, and since the Brewers' trade for Jonathan Papelbon didn't/hasn't gone through, the Brewers have one of the last -- if not the last -- closer jobs available.
• A Phillies prospect had a huge day in the clinching game of the Dominican winter ball championship series.
• The talks between the Blue Jays and Orioles about Dan Duquette may or may not be over. The Blue Jays are looking elsewhere, writes Shi Davidi. The two sides have never been close to a deal, writes Roch Kubatko.
We'll see if the two sides re-engage.
• Tom Kelly hopes to get clearance to be at spring training.
• It's great for Ichiro that he has a landing spot for 2015 after working out a one-year deal with the Marlins. He can now continue his move toward 3,000 hits in Major League Baseball; he needs just 155.
That said, it's really unclear exactly how Ichiro fits with the Marlins, because he really doesn't complement what they have, which is the best overall outfield in the majors (Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich). At this stage of his career, Ichiro is still a good outfielder, but the Marlins' starting outfielders are all good defensively, so Ichiro won't be needed as a late-inning defensive upgrade. He doesn't hit for power, which limits his value as a pinch-hitter. Ichiro could be used in situations in which the Marlins need a hitter to put the ball in play, or as a pinch-runner, but on this roster, he's kind of a square peg for a round hole.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Yankees are prepared to fight with Alex Rodriguez over money.
2. Ryan Flaherty agreed to a 2015 contract.
3. The Red Sox avoided arbitration with two pitchers.
NL West
• Logan White is invigorated by his new role with the Padres.
NL Central
• The Brewers' Jimmy Nelson says he's ready to go.
• Billy Hamilton is looking to put two solid halves together.
AL West
• Josh Hamilton's goal for the upcoming season: Keep it simple, and hit 30 homers.
• Jeff Banister explains how he will foster an important working relationship.
AL Central
• For the Tigers, 2015 won't be quite so easy, writes Bob Wojnowski.
• The Tigers have their sights set high, writes Peter Gammons.
• Billy Butler says he'd be more than happy to return to the Royals someday.
• Alex Meyer is looking at another late bloomer as inspiration.
• White Sox manager Robin Ventura is really happy about the mood at the team's SoxFest this winter, writes Colleen Kane.
• Avisail Garcia dropped some weight.
• The White Sox have ground to make up.
Lastly
• The city of Chicago and the Cubs will honor Ernie Banks on Wednesday. Ernie Banks' statue will be placed in Daley Plaza.
• Banks' son shared some memories of his father.
• Ernie Banks' family released more information.
• Thom Loverro writes that Ernie Banks was a greater champion than Bill Belichick.
• Banks found joy in baseball.
And today will be better than yesterday.
_____________________________
The good die too young. The evil live far too long.
See Donald J Trump.
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