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Bowdens Insider
20 most-likely to be traded guys.
Some familiar faces.
Jim Bowden, Baseball, Insider
The trade buzz has begun to pick up as we approach late May, and I foresee a handful of big names being traded before the July 31 trade deadline. In fact, I expect the flurry leading up to the deadline to be as exciting as the winter meetings were in terms of player movement.
Of course, a lot will change between now and then, depending on how many games out of the playoffs each team is at that point. Per the norm, most deals will be "buyers" trading with "sellers" and proven players traded for prospects or younger, unproven major leaguers. But I also believe there will be some need-for-need type of deals made that will be just as impactful.
For instance, one of the best trades this offseason was the trade between the Tigers and Blue Jays in which unproven 24-year-old center fielder Anthony Gose was sent to Detroit in exchange for second base prospect Devon Travis. This was a need-for-need deal that worked for both teams. We've seen other similar deals at the deadline over the past couple years, such as the one in 2010 in which the Cardinals traded starting outfielder Ryan Ludwick to the Padres in a three-team deal that landed the Cardinals proven starting pitcher Jake Westbrook and prospect Nick Greenwood. (And who did the Indians, the third team in that deal, get? Some unknown right-handed pitcher at the time named Corey Kluber.) The Cardinals got their veteran starting pitcher, the Padres got a starting outfielder, and the Indians got younger by nabbing a prospect.
Trade likeliness scale
1: Unlikely
2: Chance
3: Solid chance
4: Good chance
5: He gone
Below is my list of the 20 major leaguers most likely to be traded before July 31. This list puts emphasis on players who are impending free agents (after this season) and playing for either non-contending teams or teams on the brink. It was compiled after talking to front-office executives and scouts from all 30 teams and includes input from agents in various cases.
So put your seat belt on and enjoy what's sure to be an action-filled couple of months:
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Trade likeliness rating: 3
Best fit: Red Sox
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees
Cueto, a free agent after this season, has pitched more innings than anyone in the National League since the start of the 2014 season and is 23-13 over that span with a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He is a true staff ace and has proven he can pitch well in any all ballpark and endure any type of situation. The Reds are looking for young starters in return, and it appears the Red Sox can offer them the best package among the contending teams.
Cole Hamels, LHP
Philadelphia Phillies
Trade likeliness rating: 4
Best fit: Dodgers
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees
Hamels, signed through 2018 with a club option for 2019, is the most valuable pitcher on the trade market because the acquiring club will control him through 2019 at market value. However, the Phillies don't have to trade him, and they won't if they don't get the package they're looking for. But I believe some team will pony up, especially given Hamels' postseason success.
Scott Kazmir, LHP
Oakland Athletics
Trade likeliness rating: 5
Best fit: Cardinals or Dodgers
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees
Kazmir, a free agent-to-be, has an impressive 8.9 K/9 rate this season, and opponents are hitting just .214 against him. The A's are not going to be able to sign him long-term, so he'll be dealt, and the A's should be able to get plenty for him. The Dodgers and Cardinals are the favorites, given their strong farm systems.
Mike Leake, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Trade likeliness rating: 3
Best fit: Astros
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees
Leake is one of the most underrated middle-of-the-rotation pitchers in baseball. He's durable, affordable and would be a perfect fit in the Astros rotation after Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh.
Jeff Samardzija, RHP
Chicago White Sox
Trade likeliness rating: 2
Best fit: Marlins
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, Marlins, Red Sox, Yankees
I expect the White Sox to contend all season and Samardzija to stay put. He is a free agent at the end of the season, but his preference is to stay in Chicago (either Cubs or White Sox). That said, if the White Sox were to fall out of the playoff race, they would probably trade Samardzija at the deadline and then try to re-sign him in the offseason.
Yovani Gallardo, RHP
Texas Rangers
Trade likeliness rating: 3
Best fit: Blue Jays
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Marlins
The Rangers traded top infield prospect, Luis Sardinas, to get Gallardo, a free agent-to-be, this past offseason, but if they're not in the race at the end of July, they'll try and get similar talent back for him. Their preference would be to get a solid starting pitching prospect in return.
Matt Garza, RHP
Milwaukee Brewers
Trade likeliness rating: 4
Best fit: Blue Jays
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners, Royals
The Brewers need to rebuild, retool and sell off their best assets. Garza's competitiveness would help a contending team, and teams such as the Astros and Blue Jays could stand to upgrade the middle of their starting rotations. That said, Garza, who is signed through 2017 and has a vesting option for 2018, will have to start pitching better between now and then to have any trade value.
Aaron Harang, RHP
Philadelphia Phillies
Trade likeliness rating: 5
Best fit: Astros
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Royals
Player value is like the stock market, and Harang's stock is never going to higher than it is right now (he has a 1.82 ERA in nine starts). The Phillies should trade him now for a prospect.
Kyle Lohse, RHP
Milwaukee Brewers
Trade likeliness rating: 5
Best fit: Giants
Interested teams: Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants
Lohse's stock is down, and the Brewers are better off waiting until the end of July and hope his sinker and effectiveness returns. He could be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for one of the contending teams.
Relief pitchers
Jonathan Papelbon, closer
Philadelphia Phillies
Trade likeliness rating: 4
Best fit: Blue Jays
Interested teams: Blue Jays, Marlins
Papelbon is signed through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016. The Phillies will have to pay down his $13 million annual salary by about $4-5 million per season to get a good enough return. However, there's not much of a market for closers right now, even one with the impressive track record of Papelbon, who is once again dominating this season (11 saves, 1.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP).
Tyler Clippard, RHR
Oakland A's
Trade likeliness rating: 5
Best fit: Mets
Interested teams: Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Tigers
Clippard, who is set to become a free agent after this season, remains one of the best eighth-inning relievers in baseball. Teams will be lining up for him.
Francisco Rodriguez, Closer
Milwaukee Brewers
Trade likeliness rating: 2
Best fit: Marlins
Interested teams: Blue Jays, Marlins
Rodriguez is signed through 2016 with a team option for '17. It makes sense for the Brewers to trade him again, but it will be difficult this time because teams don't want that 2016 contract commitment.
Infielders
Jean Segura, SS
Milwaukee Brewers
Trade likeliness rating: 3
Best fit: Mets
Interested teams: Mets, Padres
The Mets and Padres both could use an upgrade at shortstop, and Segura, who is under team control through 2018, has the potential to be just that. The problem, however, is he's not hitting and his defense has been subpar (like it was last year). For one of those teams to have interest, he'll have to return to the form he showed in 2013, when he hit .294, hit 12 homers and stole 44 bases.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B
Milwaukee Brewers
Trade likeliness rating: 4
Best fit: Giants
Interested teams: Giants, White Sox
Ramirez is going to retire at the end of the season and was hoping to finish his career as a Brewer. However, he also has indicated he'd like the chance to go out as a winner, so there's a strong chance he'll be dealt. He would be a great "rent-a-player" for either the Giants or White Sox.
Ben Zobrist, IF/OF
Oakland A's
Trade likeliness rating: 5
Best fit: Tigers
Interested teams: Angels, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Tigers
Zobrist had knee surgery in April and is expected back in early June. That should give him 4-6 weeks to get back in shape and build his trade value. The switch-hitting multi-position player would be a good fit with just about every contending team, but his left-handed bat would be an especially good fit for the Tigers, who just placed Victor Martinez (knee) on the DL and have a righty-heavy lineup.
Carlos Santana, 1B/DH
Cleveland Indians
Trade likeliness rating: 2
Best fit: Rays
Interested teams: Angels, Mariners, Rays, Tigers
Santana has averaged 24 home runs and 84 RBIs per 162 games over the course of his career. He also has led the majors in walks since the start of the 2014 season. However, he's at that point in his career when a change of scenery would help him. The Rays need some offensive pop and could get him some DH starts.
Outfielders
Carlos Gonzalez, OF
Colorado Rockies
Trade likeliness rating: 2
Best fit: Angels
Interested teams: Angels, Cubs, Mariners
The Rockies haven't won more than 74 games in a season since 2010, and it's time to take a different approach. It appears the Rockies are not going to move Troy Tulowitzki but CarGo is a different story. Wth the emergence of Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson, Gonzalez is expendable. He will make $16 million this year, $17 million next year and $20 million in 2017. The Rockies will have to pay down a significant amount of that to trade him and get any type of return. However, when healthy, CarGo still has the ability to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bags and would be a perfect fit for the Angels in left field.
Ben Revere, OF
Philadelphia Phillies
Trade likeliness rating: 4
Best fit: Angels
Interested teams: Angels, Mariners
The Angels prefer Revere over Gonzalez because he makes only $4.1 million this year and has no long-term exposure. He also would give the Angels much-needed speed atop their lineup.
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF
Boston Red Sox
Trade likeliness rating: 4
Best fit: Rockies
Interested teams: Mariners, Rockies
If the Rockies trade Gonzalez, then Bradley, who is arbitration-eligible in 2017 and under team control through '19, would be an ideal center fielder for them. The Gold Glove-caliber defender would provide great range in center, and the altitude would help him emerge as a hitter.
Wilin Rosario, C/OF
Colorado Rockies
Trade likeliness rating: 3
Best fit: Mariners
Interested teams: Angels, Mariners, Rays
Rosario still has great power; the problem is finding a position for him. A trade to an American League team would help him, and the Mariners would be a solid fit. He could play some first base and left field there, with some occasional DH time, and act as the third catcher. His power is for real.
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