SoMnFan
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Laws Top 50 MLB Free Agents
(he says the best crop in ten years)
This year's free-agent class is one of the strongest in years, certainly since I started ranking free agents for ESPN.com back in November 2006, with incredible depth in starting pitching and a handful of young position players who still hold out some promise of upside. With MLB revenues showing no signs of abating, look for some eye-popping deals this winter, with several players crossing the $20 million per year mark. It's the new norm, and it's what the players earn based on the revenues they produce.
With these rankings, I try to provide a rough idea of the offer I'd be comfortable making to each player if I was the general manager of a contending team (or would-be contending team) and operating at or above the median payroll level.
Estimating the actual dollar value of a player to any specific team is nearly impossible, because we don't know what the marginal revenue product of a win is for each club, and that number can change for a team from season to season, or even within a season, if it's much better or worse than expected.
My numbers are not predictions, and they often will fall short of actual market values. That is due to the "winner's curse" phenomenon, in which the winner of an auction for a good of uncertain value is the bidder whose internal estimates of that value are the highest (and thus perhaps too optimistic), and because teams with large payrolls can and often do pay more for a win in the free-agent market.
This document will be updated as the offseason wears on. When a player signs, we'll add a note in the profile as to which team he signed with and for how much. We'll also add a note if they received a $15.8 million qualifying offer. If a player receives one and signs elsewhere, the signing team will lose a draft pick, and having a qualifying offer "attached" can really hurt the value of non-elite free agents.
Now on to the rankings.
1. Jason Heyward, RF/CF
Age: 26 | DOB: 8/9/1989
HT: 6-5 | WT: 245
2015 Stats
.293 .359 .439 13 23 6.5
Heyward has already produced 31.1 WAR in his career (baseball-reference version), the 31st-best total for any position player through his age-25 season in major league history -- he's between Lou Gehrig and Roberto Alomar -- but I'd argue he hasn't even reached his full potential yet. Heyward's value so far as a big leaguer has been primarily on the defensive side, where he has been one of the most valuable fielders at any position in baseball for the past several years, starring in right field with the occasional stint in center.
I wrote last offseason when he was traded to St. Louis that getting out of Atlanta, where numerous position players stagnated or regressed during the Frank Wren era, was the best thing for him, and it played out that way, as the Cardinals tweaked his swing enough to get him to improve the quality of his contact so that he could post the best batting average and second-best OBP of his career. It's hard to pinpoint the start of his "new" swing, but after a dismal April, he hit .306/.375/.455 the rest of the way, and hit .318/.397/.469 after the All-Star break.
That said, the changes worked out in a way I didn't expect: Instead of getting Heyward to hit for more power, the changes made Heyward even more of a ground ball hitter, raising his BABIP but not his home run production.
This version of Heyward is comfortably a 5-6 WAR per year player, and he should hold that value for the length of whatever contract he gets, even if it runs seven years. But there's no physical reason he can't find 20-25 homer power again; he hit 27 in 2012 and 18 (in 142 games) in 2010. Shoulder problems caused him to shorten his swing -- specifically the path from his loaded position to the ball -- and more mechanical work might turn him into a 7 or 8 WAR player, especially with his peak offensive years ahead of him based on his age.
If a team can find a way to pay Heyward for what he's been rather than what he might be, it could actually come out ahead on the deal, a rarity at the top end of the free-agent market. I'd be fine giving him seven years and more than $150 million.
2. Zack Greinke, RHP
Age: 32 | DOB: 10/21/1983
HT: 6-2 | WT: 195
2015 Stats
19-3 1.66 0.84 200 40 9.3
Greinke might not want to pitch forever -- he might retire after this next contract to go be someone's area scout in north and central Florida -- but he sure looks like he could, given how effective he can be without even using his best stuff. Greinke's command, control and understanding of how to set up hitters are all at or near the top of the sport, and as much as long-term deals for any pitcher frighten me, I'd probably give Greinke whatever number of years he wants. (I could see him saying he wants a 2π-year deal, just to have some fun.)
Greinke's 1.66 ERA this year did include some exceptional results in terms of BABIP, but even at his more normal level around .300, he's a sub-3.00 ERA candidate because he rarely walks hitters and keeps the ball on the ground, limiting the power he allows. He's been very durable, not having had any major arm problems, reaching 200 innings in six of the last eight seasons and never going below 170 in any of those years. You often hear about pitchers who can reach some high-velocity mark but don't need to; Greinke is the rare pitcher for whom that's true. He is a pitching precisionist, very likely to give his employer 20-plus WAR over a five-year deal with a good shot at more.
3. David Price, LHP
Age: 30 | DOB: 8/26/1985
HT: 6-6 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
18-5 2.45 1.08 225 47 6.0
If you want an ace, Price is your surest option on the market, a huge power lefty with three swing-and-miss pitches and the control of a finesse guy. He doesn't have the same long-term certainty as Greinke, but has the advantage of youth and left-handedness, as well as consistently stronger strikeout rates.
Price worked more with the four-seamer this year than the two-seamer, still using both pitches along with the plus cutter and plus-plus changeup, as well as a hard knuckle-curve that also misses plenty of bats. That changeup was the real equalizer for him this year, with hitters swinging and missing at nearly one in five changeups he threw. That's how he just had the best year he has ever had against right-handed batters. It's a collection of pitches and feel for pitching that will serve him well even if he loses some velocity as he gets into his 30s, which could very well happen at the back end of what I expect to be a seven-year deal.
Price led the league in innings pitched in 2014, and has reached 200 in five of his six full seasons as a starter (he was limited to 186 2/3 innings in 2013 because of a triceps strain). That history of durability, along with his consistently outstanding results, should earn him $25 million a year this winter.
4. Justin Upton, RF
Age: 28 | DOB: 8/25/1987
HT: 6-2 | WT: 205
2015 Stats
.251 .336 .454 26 19 4.4
Upton has had one of the most disappointing 190-homer or 25-WAR or however you want to measure it careers to date. He has nearly 5,000 career plate appearances and has had just one season, 2011, in which he played up to the expectations placed on him when he was the No. 1 overall pick in the loaded 2005 draft. (The second pick, Alex Gordon, is also on this list.) Upton has shown flashes of that raw ability and is entering his age-28 season, so I still believe he has some star-level performances in him, especially since so many little things have gone wrong for him since 2011, from him playing hurt for most of 2012 to hitting in mostly pitchers' parks in 2015.
Upton still has outstanding bat speed, with the same quick-twitch actions that made him the consensus top prospect in that '05 draft (which also included Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen and Ryan Braun). Some of his 2015 stat line -- like hitting .191/.258/.300 off lefties, or actually hitting worse away from Petco Park -- is just fluky and won't be repeated, but he's just not that disciplined a hitter; he has had a longstanding trouble with right-handed sliders and, new in 2015, difficulty with lefty changeups (in a small sample). He has reached a point in terms of age and experience when it's irrational to assume he'll improve in any of these areas, but still rational to price some small probability of improvement into his value. He is simultaneously a good bet to be overpriced by the market, and a nonzero bet to beat his projections by a wide margin.
5. Yoenis Cespedes, OF
Age: 30 | DOB: 10/18/1985
HT: 5-10 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
.291 .328 .542 35 7 6.3
Cespedes might be destined for too big of a contract, given what he did this August (complete with the brain-dead MVP narrative ... if you took that seriously for a moment, you should be ashamed), but despite some deficiencies in his game, he was still a 4-WAR player twice in three years (9.4 WAR total across those seasons) before posting a career-best 6.3 mark this year, posting career highs in homers (35) and doubles (42). He's a great four- or five-hole hitter, possessing huge raw power and some value on defense, though if he's your best hitter, it's probably a sign that your offense is a little lacking.
Masked by all the talk about Cespedes' impact on the Mets was his career-low total of 28 unintentional walks, a new nadir for a guy who was never that patient even when he was kind of patient. If his batting average dips to around his career average of .271, there's a good chance he won't post a .300 OBP, which means the 30 homers and 30 doubles you're probably going to get from him will come with something like 410-420 outs, too. He's an above-average defender in left field with a right fielder's arm, capable of filling in as a center fielder but not good enough to play it regularly.
Cespedes is entering his age-30 season, so any deal more than two or three years probably buys you some of his decline phase. I'd offer him three years and $60 million or so, but would expect to be outbid.
6. Alex Gordon, LF
Age: 31 | DOB: 2/10/1984
HT: 6-1 | WT: 220
2015 Stats
.271 .377 .432 13 2 2.8
Gordon played only about two-thirds of the 2015 season due to a groin strain, an injury that likely contributed to his atypical performances both on defense and on the basepaths. His offensive rate stats were in line with the previous three years, and unlike many good left-handed hitters, he shows no platoon split, thanks to sharply improved pitch recognition that led to his breakout in 2011, his age-27 season.
When healthy, Gordon, the No. 2 pick in that incredible 2005 draft class, is a strong on-base guy with above-average power (more in the doubles department than homers) and outstanding defense in left field. Advanced metrics like UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) have rated his defense very highly in the past, although the average in left field can be brought down by the placement of tombstones like Hanley Ramirez out there, but even the eye test would tell you Gordon is among the best in the game at covering left field.
The concern with Gordon in free agency is that he's entering his age-32 season, so any contract will cover mostly if not entirely post-peak years, though Gordon produces much of his value via skills that age relatively well. I think the market will give him four years, but I would rather stick to three years and something like $50 million.
7. Chris Davis, 1B
Age: 29 | DOB: 3/17/1986
HT: 6-3 | WT: 232
2015 Stats
.262 .361 .562 47 2 5.2
I wanted this entire capsule to comprise a shrug emoticon, but my editors rejected it. There has been no in between for Davis, who has had two seasons of star-level performance -- 6.5 WAR in 2013 and 5.2 WAR in 2015 -- and has been no more than a fringe regular in any other year. He has more homers than any player in baseball over the past four years (and the past three years), and he led the majors in homers in 2015. So he has some power, you might say. He also led the majors in strikeouts in 2015 with 208, and that's a guaranteed part of his game too. The big differences for him in 2015 were a vastly improved walk rate and the restoration of his career-norm BABIP (.319 in 2015, .320 for his career). His awful 2014 season ended with a suspension for use of Adderall, a mixture of two amphetamine salts, for which he had a therapeutic use exemption in 2013 and again in 2015.
Davis is a great athlete, especially for someone his size, and is a plus defender at first base who has played some third base in his career but never quite got to average over there. I'd be uncomfortable signing him to play third, but his value at first base is pretty well established, just with a high beta compared to the guys ahead of him due to that 2014 drop-off and his 30 percent strikeout rates. I'd go four or five years and $15 million per year, although I think his home run totals will price him well above that in free agency.
8. Dexter Fowler, CF
Age: 29 | DOB: 3/22/1986
HT: 6-5 | WT: 195
2015 Stats
.250 .346 .411 17 20 2.2
Fowler quietly had an excellent year in 2015, hitting a career-best 17 home runs, which is particularly surprising since he never hit more than 13 in any of his five full seasons playing for Colorado, and drawing a career-best 84 walks. Getting out of Denver was probably the best thing for Fowler's market value, as any concern about his potential offensive performance at sea level has to be lessened now by two years of solid OBPs in neutral parks, with hope that he'll retain some of this past year's power spike going forward.
Fowler has been a fringy-at-best defender in center field for most of his career, capable of playing it but costing his team a few runs (or more) per year compared to an average defender there, and he'll probably end any truly long-term contract in left field rather than in center. He also doesn't make a ton of hard contact and that 17 homers is probably a high-water mark, but the walk rate should be more sustainable, and even a dozen homers a year with some doubles power would keep him above the median for center field offense.
Four years at $12 million a year is probably fair based on his whole body of work, but an aggressive projection that weights 2015 more heavily would push his AAV higher than that.
9. Johnny Cueto, RHP
Age: 29 | DOB: 2/15/1986
HT: 5-11 | WT: 221
2015 Stats
11-13 3.44 1.13 176 46 3.9
If Cueto is healthy, I have him too low, and if he's not healthy, then I have him too high. So I'll take a page from Solomon's free-agent rankings and stick him somewhere in the middle, a ranking that, one way or the other, likely won't end up being correct. He left homer-friendly Cincinnati and became more homer-prone in Kansas City, changing his whole approach by throwing fewer four-seamers up in the zone (where he'd had success his whole career) and going with more two-seamers and cutters. After the trade, his strikeout rate dropped, his swing-and-miss rate dropped, and he just threw fewer strikes in general. He has had elbow issues in the recent past, including shortly before the trade, so if that's the cause of the decline in his performance, it's possible his new employer is acquiring a player who'll end up missing a big chunk of time in the near future.
Before that elbow flare-up, however, Cueto was among the best starters in baseball, especially with the success he had changing eye levels and getting that four-seamer by hitters above the hitting zone. He threw strikes, he missed bats, and he even had a long run of BABIPs below the league average before he was traded.
You might get an ace here, and ultimately any deal is going to hinge on what the signing team sees in Cueto's medical reports (and perhaps on an MRI). A healthy Cueto would be a five-year, $100 million guy, easily.
10. Scott Kazmir, LHP
Age: 31 | DOB: 1/24/1984
HT: 6-0 | WT: 185
2015 Stats
7-11 3.10 1.21 155 59 3.3
Kazmir's career has been wonderfully weird. He topped 200 innings in his career-best season in 2007, spent three years in decline and battling injuries (didn't even qualify for the ERA title in either of those years), was out of baseball for most of 2011 and all of 2012, but has come back a brand-new pitcher who just threw 373 1/3 innings on a two-year deal for Oakland and Houston that was a screaming bargain in hindsight. He's still just 31, turning 32 in January, and given what he has done since the start of 2013, there's no real reason to consider the pitcher he was before that anymore.
Since Kazmir's return, he has been a different guy in numerous ways, with two that matter here: He throws a lot more strikes, and his primary out pitch is now a changeup rather than a slider, so he's just as effective against right-handed batters as he is against lefties. He was hit- and homer-lucky with Oakland, but unlucky on both counts with the Astros; there's no reason to expect him to be so homer-prone going forward unless he goes to pitch in Denver or on the moon. It's a little surprising that his two-seamer doesn't generate more ground balls, and I'd like to see him mix in more sliders than he did after the trade to Houston. He did have a few scares around the health of his arm in 2015, but missed just two starts and hasn't had a major setback since his return in 2013.
He's a solid mid-rotation option, good for 180-190 innings of above-average pitching. I'd offer him three years and $45 million to $48 million.
11. Mike Leake, RHP
Age: 27 | DOB: 11/12/1987
HT: 5-10 | WT: 190
2015 Stats
11-10 3.70 1.16 119 49 2.9
Leake is one of three starting pitchers on the free-agent market who will pitch at age 28 next year -- no significant FA starter is younger than that -- and the only one with a history that doesn't include an arm problem, so what he might lack in upside, he more than makes up for in durability. Leake was drafted eighth overall in 2009, went to the big leagues in short order and threw more than 1,000 innings for the Reds over 5 1/2 years before being traded to San Francisco, making 30 or more starts in each of the past four seasons.
Leake pitched in a hitter-friendly (especially homer-friendly) home park with Cincinnati, but because he gets ground balls with his sinker (or two-seamer), he was never very homer-prone, and his control, always plus even in college, has remained so throughout his career; he has yet to walk 50 men unintentionally in a single season in the majors. He's also a superb athlete who is one of the best fielding pitchers in baseball, which is fairly important when you're generating a lot of ground balls, and his style and repertoire point toward continued success for another decade as long as he doesn't get hurt.
He's not a $15 million to $20 million a year guy in terms of production, but I'd be as comfortable giving him five or, yes, even six years as I would any starter, but more at the $10 million to $12 million per year range.
12. John Lackey, RHP
Age: 37 | DOB: 10/23/1978
HT: 6-6 | WT: 235
2015 Stats
13-10 2.77 1.21 175 53 5.6
Lackey's five-year contract, signed with the Boston Red Sox before the 2010 season, included a clause that added a sixth year (2015) at the minimum salary if he missed a full season during the course of the contract due to an elbow injury. That's exactly what happened: He posted a 5.26 ERA over two years with Boston, missed all of 2012 due to Tommy John surgery, and since then has posted a 3.35 ERA over the past three seasons between Boston and St. Louis, even leading the NL in starts this year with 33 and finishing sixth in innings pitched. So for someone entering his age-37 season, he's in pretty good shape, with the same velocity he's always had, although he adapted to the Cardinal Way in 2015, throwing more two-seamers than he had in the past to try to generate more ground balls. As a sort of sinker/slider guy, he's a bit vulnerable to left-handed hitters -- he has a changeup he barely uses -- a split that widened in 2015 because he was so fastball-heavy.
His 2015 was probably a post-surgery peak for him, with some good fortune in terms of BABIP that isn't going to continue, but he seems like a fair bet for another 6-7 WAR over a three-year deal, for which (factoring in his age) I'd pay him $10 million to $11 million per year.
13. Wei-Yin Chen, LHP
Age: 30 | DOB: 7/21/1985
HT: 6-0 | WT: 195
2015 Stats
11-8 3.34 1.22 153 41 3.8
Chen signed to a bargain deal as a professional free agent from Japan's NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) -- he's Taiwanese, but pitched five years in Japan's top league -- and delivered for the Orioles, giving them four solid years and about 10 WAR for about $15.5 million, a pay rate he should top handily this time around.
Chen works with four pitches, with the slider being his best offering and the reason he has killed left-handed hitters since entering the league, while his lack of an average or better changeup (or splitter) has made him vulnerable to right-handed power. He's durable enough and has the control to start, but that missing weapon against right-handers makes him a little less valuable than several of the other starters in this free-agent class.
Perhaps his next employer can help him refine or add that pitch to his repertoire. As is, he could end up in the four-year, $40 million range, although I'd offer that only if I felt confident I could address the right-handed power problem.
14. Howie Kendrick, 2B
Age: 32 | DOB: 7/12/1983
HT: 5-10 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
.295 .336 .409 9 6 1.1
Kendrick hit .360/.403/.569 as a minor leaguer, with scouting reports that praised his ability to hit, his speed and his defense at second, so the fact that he has become just an average everyday player for most of his career has been something of a disappointment. I think a big part of that is for all his hand-eye coordination and high contact rates, he never has been a terribly smart or disciplined hitter, living mostly off fastballs and struggling with anything hard with movement. That's not likely to change, but if he's still a .290/.335/.410 hitter and can play above-average defense at second, he's a solid regular at a position that's weak in this free-agent market.
The multi-million dollar question isn't around his bat, however, but his glove. The DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and UZR metrics both say he had an awful year on defense, and if he has lost that much range at age 31, his projection -- below-average defender at second or someone in need of a position switch to first base or maybe left field -- looks much worse. The market will probably give him four years, way more than I'd want to give a player with this big of a defensive question.
15. Austin Jackson, CF
Age: 28 | DOB: 2/1/1987
HT: 6-1 | WT: 203
2015 Stats
.267 .311 .385 9 7 1.5
Jackson is an excellent defensive center fielder who hits a lot of line drives but lacks the patience or power that would make him more than a solid regular option up the middle, and playing most of his career in spacious pitcher-friendly parks has hurt his superficial stats and perhaps his perceived value as well. His last two years, each of which included a midseason trade, have been his worst offensive seasons, with what power he did have almost completely disappearing and his walk rate dropping to a career low in 2015.
He'll likely never be better than a below-average OBP guy, but there's some power potential still in here, especially since he's healthy and just 28, in what should be his peak power years. That may mean 45-50 doubles and triples rather than getting back to 15 or more homers, but that kind of power output with plus defense in center should make him a 2.5- to 3-win player and worth three to four years at $12 million to $14 million a year.
16. Denard Span, CF
Age: 31 | DOB: 2/27/1984
HT: 6-0 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
.301 .365 .431 5 11 0.8
It was a lost year for Span (and the Nationals), as he hit the DL three times with a recurring back injury that eventually led to hip inflammation as well. Had Span been a free agent last winter, coming off a roughly 4-WAR season and playing 300 games over two years, he likely would have seen bigger and longer offers coming his way, but his value now is tied as much to his medical reports as his on-field value.
Before 2015, Span was a competent but unspectacular defender in center who made a lot of contact with mostly doubles and triples power and extra value from his speed; Fangraphs' baserunning values had him adding two to seven runs per year with his legs. He doesn't walk much and hits the ball on the ground a fair amount, so his other secondary skills are light, and if injuries mean he's not as fleet as he once was, his potential value takes a huge hit.
Based on the previous body of work I would have said he was a $16 million to $20 million per year player and good for a four-year deal, but don't be surprised if he comes in well under that if team doctors are bearish on his physical outlook.
17. Matt Wieters, C
Age: 29 | DOB: 5/21/1986
HT: 6-5 | WT: 230
2015 Stats
.267 .319 .422 8 0 0.8
Wieters started out 2014 like he was finally reaching his offensive potential, then blew out his elbow and missed a year after Tommy John surgery. When he returned in 2015, he hit more like Matt Walbeck until a little surge in the final week of September made his season line a bit more respectable.
Wieters can throw and receive well and garners praise for his defensive work though he consistently grades out as a below-average pitch-framer. At the plate, his main issue is that pitchers can beat him with velocity, even in the zone, because he takes a little too long to get the bat head to the ball. His approach otherwise is good, and he can hit lower-velocity stuff and pick up spin.
Now that he's likely to play 130 games a season again, he's a decent bet for 2 WAR of value (factoring in what he costs the team in pitch-framing), four years and $40 million to $44 million, good if you can stomach the OBP risk and are staring into the abyss of alternatives behind the plate.
18. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP
Age: 29 | DOB: 5/23/1986
HT: 6-2 | WT: 223
2015 Stats
13-10 3.66 1.20 164 39 3.4
Zimmermann never got on track in 2015, as his fastball velocity was down a bit from the start of the year and he ended up pitching more with his off-speed stuff, missing fewer bats and allowing more walks than he had in 2014. He has been so consistently good for a while now -- including a 3.14 ERA (π!) in 971 innings since the start of 2011 -- that it's hard to believe he might be entering either a decline phase or an adjustment period during which he must alter his style of pitching, but there's a high probability that he's at that very crossroad.
Zimmermann, who had Tommy John surgery back in 2009 but has been healthy, just seems to have lost that fourth gear, as his fastball went from a strength to a liability. He has the remaining weapons and the command to become a strong mid-rotation starter even if he has to reduce his reliance on the four-seamer, but there's some risk here that isn't present with other free agents with similar track records of past performance. I'd limit an offer here to three years and $45 million to try to mitigate that risk.
19. Ian Desmond, SS
Age: 30 | DOB: 9/20/1985
HT: 6-3 | WT: 215
2015 Stats
.233 .290 .384 19 13 2.0
Desmond was a 3.5-WAR or better player for three straight years from 2012-14, then went over a cliff in the first half of 2015 with a .211/.255/.334 line, featuring 99 strikeouts and just 17 walks in 348 plate appearances. In the second half, he hit like he normally does, and his defense became less erratic, which is to say it returned to its typical level of erraticism. (Yep, that's the noun form.) I'm not partial to this profile -- a player who doesn't walk or show a good approach at the plate, and whose defensive value is more from his position than from skill -- but Desmond does provide unusual power for a shortstop, and he's going to stay there for several years unless he's forced out by a better prospect.
If a team has nothing coming at shortstop, he's a good option at three years and $39 million, but I'd wince while signing the contract.
20. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
Age: 30 | DOB: 1/23/1985
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225
2015 Stats
11-13 4.96 1.29 163 49 0.2
Well, that wasn't the platform year Shark was hoping to have, I'd wager. Samardzija posted his worst ERA, strikeout rate and ground ball rate since he became a full-time starter in 2012, even though the quality of his stuff didn't decline at all. The White Sox had him throw more cutters and fewer two-seamers, which seems like a mistake (especially in hindsight), as Samardzija had his greatest success working with a two-seamer, hard slider and a splitter; the cutter was effective, but everything else became much less so, especially the splitter.
He's still a big, durable (no serious arm injuries), athletic power pitcher who someone will look at and believe it can be the team to make him an ace, perhaps ditching the cutter and restoring the slider as the primary breaking pitch. I wouldn't pay for him like that, but I also wouldn't treat him as a guy who'll post a near-5 ERA again as a starter.
21. Brett Anderson, LHP
Age: 27 | DOB: 2/1/1988
HT: 6-4 | WT: 225
2015 Stats
10-9 3.69 1.33 116 46 1.6
Anderson threw a total 206 innings in the majors across the four years from 2011 to 2014, then threw 180 league-average innings for the Dodgers in 2015 on a one-year, $10 million deal, leading the National League in ground ball rate as he adjusted to a new pitching style.
Formerly reliant on more power pitching and a hard slider, Anderson now mixes in a knuckle-curve and throws a ton of two-seamers to get those groundballs, but the next change for him will be tightening his command, working less often in the middle and upper-middle portions of the zone, where he became homer-prone.
Given his healthy history, I'd be reluctant to go multiple years but would consider two years and $22 million -- the deal Oakland gave Scott Kazmir after 2013 -- a fair offer.
22. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF
Age: 34 | DOB: 5/26/1981
HT: 6-3 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
.276 .359 .450 13 3 1.9
Zobrist has had a remarkable career, producing 38.5 WAR, all after his age-26 season, and playing multiple positions yet never earning more than $7.5 million in any season or becoming famous for any other reason than being the guy Luddite sportswriters would point to when they wanted to use the argument from personal incredulity to criticize WAR. ("That guy was worth 8 WAR? No way Ben Zobrist was the second-most valuable player in the American League, for no good reason other than I can't believe it.") He has started to slow down a little at age 34, but his plate discipline is as good as ever, as pitchers can't beat him in the zone.
His 2015 season was his worst since he became a regular, mostly because advanced defensive metrics had him much worse both at second base and in left field. Even if that holds, he's a solid 2-WAR player with added value from his versatility, an underrated facet of his game in the era of the 12-man pitching staff (and thus the four-man bench, which is really three plus a backup catcher kept behind glass). Three years at $30 million or so prices in some risk of age-related decline.
23. Colby Rasmus, CF
Age: 29 | DOB: 8/11/1986
HT: 6-2 | WT: 195
2015 Stats
.238 .314 .475 25 2 2.6
Rasmus can be infuriating, and he'll never be the player I once projected him to be, but he does have his uses, primarily righty-mashing power and average to plus defense in any outfield spot (although he's probably limited in center field now).
The plate discipline he showed briefly as a rookie and sophomore with the Cardinals is long gone, and you're going to have to live with some bad at-bats and a lot of swings-and-misses; his contact rate in the zone in 2015 dropped to a career-low 80.4 percent, putting him in the bottom 10 in baseball among hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. It's an ugly way to generate 2.6 WAR, but he did, and I think this second time through free agency, he'll get some two-year offers in the $18 million to $20 million range.
24. Daniel Murphy, 2B/3B
Age: 30 | DOB: 4/1/1985
HT: 6-2 | WT: 215
2015 Stats
.281 .322 .449 14 2 1.4
Murphy has played below-average defense at second base that was just good enough to keep him at the spot, where his offense -- high contact rates, good patience and doubles power, mostly off right-handed pitching -- profiled well enough for him to generate almost 10 WAR over the past five years (per baseball-reference). It was a risky experiment by the Mets that worked out extremely well, not least because he's hitting free agency entering his age-31 season, so any multi-year deal is probably buying some decline in his defensive abilities that may push him to third or first base.
I've never liked Murphy's glove from a scouting view -- UZR in particular says he has been better than my eyes indicated -- so I'm pessimistic about his defensive future. I'd give him two years and $12 million to $14 million as long as I had a right-handed platoon mate for him.
25. Mat Latos, RHP
Age: 27 | DOB: 12/9/1987
HT: 6-6 | WT: 245
2015 Stats
4-10 4.95 1.31 100 32 -0.5
Latos pitches like a No. 2 starter when healthy, with four straight years of that kind of performance until injuries to his knee and throwing elbow cut both his 2014 and 2015 seasons in half. He was still effective when on the mound, at least until the Dodgers acquired him in July, working with a mostly-average fastball that would touch 95 mph, a plus splitter and an above-average or better slider. He throws strikes, but his command is lacking, and he doesn't win a lot of friends in the clubhouse.
He could get back to that 2010-13 form if healthy, but you have to price him below that, two years and $20 million or so on a make-good kind of deal in which he shows he's healthy and that what happened in L.A. (19 runs allowed in 24 1/3 innings) was a weird fluke.
26. J.A. Happ, LHP
Age: 33 | DOB: 10/19/1982
HT: 6-5 | WT: 205
2015 Stats
11-8 3.61 1.27 151 45 3.0
Happ was a No. 5 or maybe No. 4 starter for six years and three different employers before 2015, when he went to Seattle, took a step backward to full sixth-starter territory, then found himself in Pittsburgh pitching like an ace for the last two months of the season. Those 11 starts and 63 innings were by far the best stretch of Happ's career, especially the 27 percent strikeout rate, and while most of it is just small-sample variance, he did change his pitch mix, throwing more fastballs and throwing more of them at the harder edge of his range of velocity.
Since he's usually good for 140-150 innings at any level, I'd offer him two years and $16 million to find out how much of that change in approach he can retain.
27. Ian Kennedy, RHP
Age: 30 | DOB: 12/19/1984
HT: 6-0 | WT: 190
2015 Stats
9-15 4.28 1.30 174 52 -0.4
Kennedy has always been a homer-prone pitcher as a command right-hander without life or plane on his fastball, but I wouldn't have expected him to give up 31 longballs in 168 innings with half of his starts (and 19 of the homers) coming at Petco. Now entering his age-31 season coming off the worst year of his career, IPK can still miss bats by changing speeds between the fastball and changeup, but has to either reduce his reliance on the four-seamer (which he threw for a career-high 59 percent of his pitches in 2015) and/or cut his walk rate dramatically to be more than an emergency guy or fifth starter. As bad as he was last year, he was so good in 2014 that I'd still offer him two years and $20 million to see if making those adjustments helps restore his productivity.
28. Tony Sipp, LHP
Age: 32 | DOB: 7/12/1983
HT: 6-0 | WT: 192
2015 Stats
13 1.99 1.03 62 15 1.7
The Diamondbacks released Sipp on May 1, 2014, and he signed with Houston the next day, after which he threw 105 innings with a 2.66 ERA, 125 strikeouts and 29 unintentional walks, getting both right- and left-handed hitters out. The Astros got Sipp to use his changeup more, as he always has had the slider to retire lefties but needed a pitch for opposite-side hitters, and he no longer had to work away from contact to get around a righty.
If any middle reliever on this market gets a three-year deal, it should be Sipp. I wouldn't give any reliever that length of a commitment given the awful history of such deals, but I'd be fine giving Sipp two years and $14 million.
29. Park Byung-ho, 1B
Age: 29 | DOB: 7/10/1986
HT: 6-1 | WT: 194
Park won the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) MVP award in 2013 and 2014, then had an even better statistical season in 2015, hitting .343/.436/.714 with 53 homers in the offense-friendly league.
2015 Stats (in KBO)
.343 .436 .714 53 10
Of course, Eric Thames and Yamaico Navarro each hit 48 homers there this year, so those numbers come with some caveats. Nevertheless, scouts seem to agree that Park's power will translate, though perhaps not his batting average, as he's strong but without great bat speed; he led the KBO in strikeouts by a wide margin. Park has very strong hands and rotates his hips very well for power, but closes too much when he strides and could be vulnerable on the inner-third, as well as against better velocity.
I think he's a boom-or-bust free agent. Either you're getting an above-average regular at first base who hits 30 bombs with a decent OBP, or you're getting a Quad-A player who doesn't make enough contact to get to the power.
30. Gerardo Parra, RF
Age: 28 | DOB: 5/6/1987
HT: 5-11 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
.291 .328 .452 14 14 1.0
Parra is a great asset if your roster is set up to deploy him correctly, and a terrible asset if you depend on him to do things he can't, like play center field or hit left-handed pitching (.232/.296/.302 in 850 career plate appearances). He's a plus defender in a corner-outfield spot, and he can hit right-handers, which is a useful combination as long as you have the right-handed bat to caddy for him when there's a southpaw on the mound.
It's not that complicated, and longtime Orioles manager Earl Weaver would have killed his own grandmother to have a guy like Parra on the roster, but only a couple of clubs still make aggressive use of platoons like Weaver did. You can squeeze two wins of value from Parra, perhaps even a bit more, if you use him right.
31. Yovani Gallardo, RHP
Age: 29 | DOB: 2/27/1986
HT: 6-2 | WT: 208
2015 Stats
13-11 3.42 1.42 121 68 4.1
Something went awry for Gallardo in the second half of 2015, as he just about stopped missing bats; his strikeout rate dropped to 13 percent from 16.7 percent in the first half and 17.8 percent in 2014, with all of the associated damage you'd expect from all of that contact. His contact rate was the eighth-highest among MLB starters, and of the seven guys above him, two have since retired and one turns 43 next year. Hitters were on his fastball, and if he can't pitch with that, he's going to have to change his approach. There are successful high-contact pitchers around the majors -- Mike Leake is a good example -- but they tend to walk fewer guys and/or be better ground ball pitchers.
I think Gallardo gets something like four years and $56 million, if not more, but I see too many warning signs to give him a long-term offer.
32. Asdrubal Cabrera, IF
Age: 29 | DOB: 11/13/1985
HT: 6-0 | WT: 205
2015 Stats
.265 .315 .430 15 6 1.8
Cabrera was not good defensively at shortstop in 2015, surprising no one, but he produced enough offensively that he could be an average or slightly better regular at second base, assuming his defense there is much better than it is at short. The market gave him only a year and $7.5 million last year, but I think he's worth more than that as a full-time second baseman, maybe more than $10 million but probably requiring less than that because his advanced metrics at short will hold back interest.
33. Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP
Age: 34 | DOB: 4/12/1981
HT: 6-3 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
9-5 3.54 1.06 111 21 2.4
Iwakuma is a sinker/splitter guy who throws strikes and can be a bit homer-prone despite spending his whole major league career in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He missed the first two months of 2015 because of a shoulder injury, which was the first time it had cropped up since his last year in Japan, but at age 35 in 2016, he's a high-risk commodity for anyone, even with his outstanding control and the plus splitter that has helped him miss so many bats even though his velocity rarely touches 90 mph.
He's a one-year, $10 million pitcher to me, even with the great results in Seattle, because of his age and injury risk. If the shoulder problem recurs, he's a good candidate to go to the bullpen the way Koji Uehara did.
34. Darren O'Day, RHP
Age: 33 | DOB: 10/22/1982
HT: 6-4 | WT: 220
2015 Stats
18 1.52 0.93 82 14 2.8
Over the course of four years, O'Day gave the Orioles a Cy Young-caliber season: 263 innings and a 1.92 ERA, with 283 strikeouts and just 54 unintentional walks. Of course, much of that is judicious usage, as O'Day, a right-handed specialist due to his very low arm slot, has trouble with lefties; he was better the last two years but awful in 2013. The odds of O'Day continuing to have a platoon split as modest as the one he has had recently are not high, since he's just fastball/slider, and I wouldn't expect him to repeat last season's 2.8 rWAR total once he's away from Baltimore's strong defense.
I don't love what righty specialists do to roster construction, but O'Day is exceptional in that role and worth two years and $7 million.
35. Yasiel Sierra (Perez), RHP
Age: 23 | DOB: 1/1/1992
HT: 6-1 | WT: 168
2014-15 Stats (Serie Nacional)
5-12 11 6.10 1.63 55 31
Sierra is one of the top Cuban free agents still unsigned and not subject to MLB's international bonus-pool limits. He has a very quick arm, coming from a high three-quarters slot with a 93-97 mph fastball and a hard cutter-like slider that flashes plus but is nowhere near consistent enough. He has no changeup to speak of yet and well below-average control.
Cuban free agents outside the bonus pools have become very hot commodities, so I expect him to be wildly overpriced, but I think he profiles as a quality middle reliever if and when the command and control improve.
36. Bartolo Colon, RHP
Age: 42 | DOB: 5/24/1973
HT: 5-11 | WT: 283
2015 Stats
14-13 4.16 1.24 136 24 1.0
Colon is as close to a one-pitch pitcher as you'll ever see in a starting rotation, and he's even more of one today than he was a decade ago. He throws just enough off-speed stuff -- sliders and changeups, although once upon a time he had a curveball -- to keep hitters honest, but his pitching plan has always revolved around the two- and four-seam fastballs, locating the heck out of them and refusing to walk guys.
Colon had the lowest walk rate of any MLB starter in 2015 at 2.9 percent, and he was rarely behind in the count: He threw 72 pitches all year in 2-0 counts and just 34 in 3-1 counts. (By contrast, Trevor Bauer, the wildest starter in the majors, threw 113 and 65 pitches in those counts, respectively.)
It has to end sometime, but I'd roll the dice on another year and $8 million to $9 million to see if Colon can do it again, as long as he's willing to pinch-hit in blowouts for our mutual entertainment.
37. Chase Utley, 2B/1B
Age: 36 | DOB: 12/17/1978
HT: 6-1 | WT: 190
2015 Stats
.212 .286 .343 8 4 0.4
Once Utley was healthy near the end of the season, he was able to at least man second base again -- he even played 25 innings at third base and 10 at first for the Dodgers again -- producing some value even without anything like his old offense. Even if he hits just .240, his patience and modest pop would be more than enough to carry him at second base.
I doubt he signs for under $10 million, but I'd hope for a slightly lower base with some incentives tied to playing time. If nothing else, the little bit we saw from him in L.A. should give teams reason to think he can be productive when he plays.
38. Mike Pelfrey, RHP
Age: 31 | DOB: 1/14/1984
HT: 6-7 | WT: 240
2015 Stats
6-11 4.26 1.48 86 45 1.4
Pelfrey was adequate for the Twins this year, below average but soaking up some innings, throwing strikes, keeping the ball on the ground and in the park ... but he doesn't miss bats. He throws hard with sink but has never had an above-average second pitch, and it's not like the Twins and Mets haven't tried; he's back to the splitter now, still mixing in the occasional slow curveball, but has just never gotten the hang of a decent slider.
He may get two years and $16 million to $18 million -- maybe more, just because he throws hard and has topped 150 innings six times in eight seasons, missing most of 2012 to Tommy John surgery -- but I'd much rather go one year and $7 million with a vesting option based on starts, so that I have some kind of way out if he becomes more homer-prone once he leaves Minnesota.
39. Rich Hill, LHP
Age: 35 | DOB: 3/11/1980
HT: 6-5 | WT: 220
2015 Stats
2-1 1.55 0.66 36 5 1.6
As ridiculous as Hill's 29 big league innings in 2015 were -- 1.55 ERA, 2.27 FIP, a 34 percent K rate -- there are some elements of it that could stick. Hill has always had a great curveball that could miss bats when he could locate it, and his changeup, which he'd abandoned since he became a reliever in 2010, looks like the third pitch he needs to get right-handed batters out. The biggest difference, however, and the one that requires the largest leap of faith, is his control: He threw nearly 70 percent of all his pitches for strikes, including 72 percent of his fastballs and 67 percent of his curveballs, way beyond anything he's done before in the majors.
Someone has to figure this is worth a year and $5 million or so to see if it's real. As lottery-ticket free agents go, Hill seems like a reasonable one to bet on.
40. Will Venable, OF
Age: 33 | DOB: 10/29/1982
HT: 6-3 | WT: 205
2015 Stats
.244 .320 .350 6 16 0.3
Venable has played most of his career in center and right field, tall orders in Petco Park, but at age 33 entering 2016, he's probably best seen as a left fielder who can handle center or right only on a short-term basis. He has some power against right-handed pitchers but should never face a lefty if it can be avoided, and I'm concerned about some signs of declining bat speed. A one-year, $5 million deal would make sense if a team was going to use him in a left field platoon.
41. Chris Young, OF
Age: 32 | DOB: 9/5/1983
HT: 6-2 | WT: 200
2015 Stats
.252 .320 .453 14 3 1.1
I've mentioned higher in these rankings the need for a number of left-handed hitters here to work in platoons with right-handed partners who can mash southpaws. This is exhibit A. Young hit .327/.397/.575 off lefties this past year for the Yankees, with patience and power that will support his performance even when he's not hitting for such a lofty average. He can poke a mistake off a right-hander, but shouldn't face them very often, and can play above-average defense in a corner. I wouldn't play him regularly in center, but he can back up there or play it on a short-term basis if there's an injury.
Young's swing is too long for him to ever be a high-contact guy or figure it out against right-handers, but as part of a platoon solution in left or right, he's worth another one-year, $4 million to $5 million deal.
42. Marco Estrada, RHP
Age: 32 | DOB: 7/5/1983
HT: 6-0 | WT: 180
2015 Stats
13-8 3.13 1.04 131 55 3.6
Estrada led the National League in home runs allowed in 2014, so the move to the AL and to homer-friendly Rogers Centre appeared to be a match made in hell, but Estrada posted the lowest home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rate of his career in 2015 and, not coincidentally, also had a career-low 3.13 ERA. There was a lot of luck involved in that, however, as his stuff and pitch mix barely changed, and that .216 BABIP isn't going to recur anytime soon.
The reality of Estrada is that he works too heavily off a below-average four-seamer that hitters like to hit the ball a very long way off him, which makes him more of a swingman/No. 6 starter than his low 2015 ERA might lead you to believe. It'll take more than a one-year deal for $4 million to $5 million to get him, but that's all I'd pay him this winter.
43. Tim Lincecum, RHP
Age: 31 | DOB: 6/15/1984
HT: 5-11 | WT: 170
2015 Stats
7-4 4.13 1.48 60 38 0.3
Someone has to take a flier on Lincecum after his hip surgery, right? Perhaps that was the explanation for his lost velocity in 2015; he threw just 9 pitches all year at 90 mph or higher, compared to 480 such pitches the year before in about twice the total number of pitches thrown. But he'd also been on the decline for several years coming into 2015, and repairing the labrum damage in his hip may restore him only to his 2014 form, when he was still just a replacement-level pitcher. He's still never had a serious arm problem, and I'd give him a year and a $3 million base, with incentives for appearances, to work as a long reliever and swingman who might earn a rotation spot during the season.
44. Geovany Soto, C
Age: 32 | DOB: 1/20/1983
HT: 6-1 | WT: 220
2015 Stats
.219 .301 .406 9 0 1.0
It's an ugly sort of line, but .219/.301/.406 with a 32 percent CS rate made Soto a 1-WAR player in less than half a season of plate appearances, and he has been an above-average pitch-framer for most of his career. He hasn't played anything like a full season since 2011, and I don't know what would happen if someone tried it (spontaneous decapitation?), but I'd give him $2.5 million with some incentives and try to start him 90 to 100 games this year.
45. Trevor Cahill, RHP
Age: 27 | DOB: 3/1/1988
HT: 6-4 | WT: 240
2015 Stats
2 5.40 1.38 36 16 -0.3
Cahill got to the Cubs and changed his pitch mix substantially, junking his slider, ramping up the use of his changeup, throwing a harder knuckle-curve and, unsurprisingly, throwing a bit harder now that he's exclusively in relief. He always has had a power sinker that induces ground balls, but his first year in Arizona (2012) was the only year he has missed bats and was able to keep the ball on the ground.
I'd take a shot at him for a year and $2 million to $3 million with some games-finished incentives to see what 70 innings of him in relief looks like.
46. Doug Fister, RHP
Age: 31 | DOB: 2/4/1984
HT: 6-8 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
5-7 4.19 1.40 63 24 0.2
Fister lost it this year -- his fastball, his effectiveness and his spot in the Nationals' rotation, and in the process any shot at a lucrative multiyear deal as well. However, there's some history of pitchers with his profile -- ground balls, control, below-average velocity -- succeeding in the majors, just with a very different approach than Fister's in 2015; he tried to throw more two-seamers even though the pitch was becoming less effective at its lower velocity. Getting him to rely more on his changeup, a la late-stage Greg Maddux, could add a few more years to his career as a starter.
47. Alexei Ramirez, SS
Age: 34 | DOB: 9/22/1981
HT: 6-2 | WT: 180
2015 Stats
.249 .285 .357 10 17 1.0
The White Sox declined Ramirez's $10 million option for 2016, a smart move based on the sudden drop in his performance across the board this past season. But that could create a buy-low opportunity for another club in need of anyone to stand around the shortstop position. Ramirez's defense has slipped the past two seasons, but he's still playable at the position even if below-average, and I'd give him a year and $3 million to $4 million or so to see if that career-low .264 BABIP (24 points under his previous worst) was just a fluke.
48. Mark Lowe, RHP
Age: 32 | DOB: 6/7/1983
HT: 6-3 | WT: 210
2015 Stats
17 1.96 1.05 61 12 1.6
Lowe had a silly first four months with Seattle, posting a 1.00 ERA and giving up only six total runs before being traded to Toronto, only to give up three runs in his first appearance as a Blue Jay. Lowe has always thrown hard and been pretty good when healthy, but the slider became a much better weapon for him last year -- he threw it nearly half the time, and hitters swung and missed at 20 percent of them -- and I'd certainly give him a year and $3 million to $4 million to see if he can stay off the DL another year.
49. Shawn Kelley, RHP
Age: 31 | DOB: 4/26/1984
HT: 6-2 | WT: 220
2015 stats
7 2.45 1.09 63 15 0.8
Kelley has long had the stuff to be an effective late-game reliever but was held back primarily by difficulty pitching from the stretch and a propensity to give up the long ball. Moving to San Diego in 2015, he saw his home run rate dip (of course) and also posted the lowest unintentional walk rate of his career, so even though he was awful with men on base, he still had his best season.
His slider is a true out pitch, with more than one in five of them resulting in a swing-and-miss, and he doesn't show much of a platoon split. I'd give him $2.5 million to $3 million for a year and hope that he maintains some of what went right for him in Petco.
50. Alejandro De Aza, OF
Age: 31 | DOB: 4/11/1984
HT: 6-0 | WT: 195
2015 Stats
.262 .333 .422 7 7 1.0
De Aza is a solid fourth outfielder, not someone you want to have playing against lefties but a useful part-time piece in the era of tiny benches (not literally tiny, as that would be uncomfortable). He can play all three outfield spots, gets on base a little, has a little pop and can run, while posting solid contact rates against right-handed pitching. I don't think there's any real upside here -- barring a BABIP fluke, he's not going to turn into an everyday player -- but he's worth $2 million to $2.5 million on a one-year deal to be part of a platoon or a great extra outfield option.
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