MDK
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MLB stars who were never top-100 prospects From ESPN INsider
Jeff Sullivan
Special to ESPN.com
There's no player better than Mike Trout. You never expect a Mike Trout, but the winter before 2011, Baseball America named him their No. 2 prospect. Clayton Kershaw? Pretty great. He topped out as the No. 7 prospect. Alex Rodriguez was once the No. 1 prospect. Same with Joe Mauer and Bryce Harper. Prospect lists are valuable because they tell us where a lot of MLB's talent ultimately comes from. Player evaluators tend to know what they're doing.
EDITOR'S PICKS
Top systems, prospects for every MLB team
We rank the top systems, the top 100 prospects and the top prospects in every organization for 2017.
However, while many great players were previously great prospects, not all of them were ranked among the best prospects. Who are today's great players who were never ranked on those kinds of lists?
For simplicity's sake, my value measure is FanGraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement, or fWAR. To determine a prospect's past background, I'm leaning on Baseball America's lists going back to 1990 with the goal to find the best players who never ranked among the top-100 prospects.
Best Who Never Cracked Top 100, Career
PLAYER CAREER WAR
M. Holliday 49.9
R. Cano 49.0
J. Lackey 42.9
B. Zobrist 40.7
J. Bautista 34.1
Y. Molina 33.3
J. Donaldson 31.8
S. Victorino 31.0
J. Shields 31.0
C. Crisp 30.0
Ranked by FanGraphs WAR (fWAR)
Best Who Never Cracked Top 100, 2014-2016
PLAYER PAST 3 YEARS WAR
J. Donaldson 22.9
C. Kluber 18.0
P. Goldschmidt 16.4
J. Altuve 16.2
K. Seager 14.8
J. Quintana 14.6
B. Dozier 13.9
L. Cain 13.6
R. Cano 13.2
B. Crawford 13.2
Ranked by FanGraphs WAR (fWAR)
In my first table, none of these players was ever a top-100 prospect. On the left, you'll find the best active players by career WAR; on the right, the best active players by WAR in the past three seasons. The list on the right provides a better idea of the best such players today.
Matt Holliday is the active leader in career WAR among players who weren't Baseball America top-100 prospects. He holds a narrow lead over Robinson Cano, a lead that could conceivably disappear by June or July. John Lackey is the leader among pitchers, with a nearly 12-WAR lead over James Shields.
Over the past three years, though, it's a different story. Josh Donaldson not only leads this group, but also among all players, prospects and non-prospects, only Mike Trout has had a higher three-year WAR. Donaldson was once a first-round pick, but he was traded a year later, and then he converted from catcher to third base. He didn't break out in the majors until he was 27.
Corey Kluber is the three-year leader among pitchers, with a lead of a few wins' worth of value over Jose Quintana. You can pick your favorite transaction, as far as their getting nabbed by their current teams: The Padres dealt Kluber away for Ryan Ludwick, while the White Sox grabbed Quintana after the Yankees allowed him to become a minor league free agent.
On one hand, all these players are overachievers and have incredible stories to tell. On the other hand, it's possible to make our definition stricter. That look limited things to the top 100 prospects, but there can be other good prospects beyond the top 100, right? Conveniently, Baseball America doesn't only release a top-100 list; it also releases top-10 lists for every team every year. As an example, here's a history of the Royals' top-10 lists.
Now let's repeat the look to find out who was never a top-100 prospect or an organizational top-10 prospect. Once again, it's active leaders on the left and leaders over the past three years on the right.
Best non-top-100, non-top-10 players
Here are the best active players to never be billed as top-100 overall or as top-10 prospects within their organizations.
PLAYER CAREER WAR
B. Zobrist 40.7
S. Victorino 31.0
J. Shields 31.0
C. Crisp 30.0
J. Peralta 28.7
Ranked by FanGraphs WAR (fWAR)
Top non-top-100, non-top-10 players, 2014-2016
Here are the best active players to never be billed as top-100 overall or as top-10 prospects within their organizations.
PLAYER PAST 3 YEARS WAR
C. Kluber 18.0
P. Goldschmidt 16.4
J. Altuve 16.2
J. Quintana 14.6
J. Turner 12.8
Ranked by FanGraphs WAR (fWAR)
Now it's Ben Zobrist's turn to shine, as he has a lead of almost 10 wins in career value. Zobrist was drafted in the sixth round by the Astros, but he was never one of their top-10 prospects. He was traded to the (Devil) Rays, but he was never one of their top-10 prospects, either. But say this for Zobrist: He always had the numbers. As a minor league shortstop, he posted a remarkable .428 OBP. He was discounted because of his relatively advanced age and his lack of pop. But at the age of 28, he hit 27 homers, and he has routinely run out strong OBPs in the majors. By the advanced metrics, he has been a good defensive infielder.
Shane Victorino was sufficiently underrated that he was twice selected in the Rule 5 Draft. As for Shields, he got better at every level. He was a changeup-first starting pitcher with an inconsistent breaking ball, and those pitchers can be easy to overlook.
It's probably a little more fun to focus on the players who have been so good more recently, which brings us back to Kluber. In the minors, Kluber struck out better than a batter an inning, but he credits his breakout to a sinker he started throwing during a Triple-A rain delay. He was never a big-velocity guy, but he did hang around the low 90s, and he came together as he improved his command. Location can make up for any number of drawbacks.
Paul Goldschmidt is a pretty well-known "miss." Over three minor league seasons, he slugged .620. There were concerns about his mobility and his tendency to strike out. Clearly, he hasn't struck out too often, and thanks to a focus on excellent conditioning, Goldschmidt in the majors is one shy of 100 career stolen bases. Everything has clicked.
It's no mystery why people missed on Jose Altuve. In the minors, he wasn't a shortstop, and he was five-and-a-half feet tall. Getting respect was always going to be an uphill battle, but to Altuve's credit, his minor league OPS was .867. As for Quintana, he was suspended all year as a teenager in 2007. The Yankees signed him from the Mets, but it took years for him to get out of short-season ball, and he didn't have big velocity or swing-and-miss tendencies. With the White Sox, he has perfected his fastball command.
Then there's Justin Turner, who wasn't a good major leaguer until he was 29. Turner was a decent hitter in the minors, but he was somewhat undersized, and it wasn't until he crossed paths with Marlon Byrd that he reworked his swing into the powerful assault it is today. Turner had the skill, but he wasn't applying it right. It's safe to say he has optimized his approach.
These aren't all the good non-prospects, but these are the best of them. There are plenty more overachievers, such as Brian Dozier, Matt Carpenter, Kole Calhoun and Jacob deGrom.
The takeaway message shouldn't be that prospect lists are a waste of everyone's time. Indeed, great players tend to show what they are early on. Many of tomorrow's best players will have been today's best prospects.
But don't get too wrapped up in what the top-prospect lists say. There are far more players off a list than on it, and out of that field, some excellent careers will surely emerge.
< Message edited by MDK -- 1/25/2017 12:37:59 PM >
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RE: MLB General Information PT 4 - 
I believe it was 5 million. 
So in essence, the incentives say "stay in the lineup and you get paid more". Stupid stuff. I am really soured on MLB. They are losing me as a fan.
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