SoMnFan
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McShays latest Mock
We are now less than a month away from the 2014 NFL draft, and I'm close to finished with most of my evaluations of this year's prospects. The majority of the significant free-agent moves have been made as well, giving us a clearer idea of each team's needs heading into the draft.
Those two factors make this a good time to unveil my latest mock draft -- and this one is a two-rounder. A few trends jumped out at me as I went through this:
1. The four elite prospects in this year's draft class went off the board early, as more and more it's looking like it's going to be tough for teams drafting high up in the order to pass over any of those players, even when it isn't a perfect need fit.
2. With those four elite players going early, one of the top-rated QBs slipped out of the top eight picks, and finding a team fit for him beyond the top eight was the most difficult decision of this whole mock draft. That's a situation to keep an eye on as the draft unfolds -- the soft landing spots are few and far between for any QB that gets past Minnesota at No. 8.
3. When I was torn between two choices for a team, I usually broke the tie by picking the higher-ranked player on my board -- even in cases when that player didn't perfectly fill a team need.
4. It seemed like every time I looked up I had picked another wide receiver. There are a lot of teams with needs at the position, and a lot of good receiver prospects in this draft.
With all of that out of the way, let's get to the picks. Here is my projection of the first two rounds of the 2014 NFL draft.
1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
There has been some Johnny Manziel-to-Houston buzz in the last few days, but I think this pick will come down to Clowney and UCF quarterback Blake Bortles. The Texans really need a QB, and Bortles has the highest ceiling of any passer in this draft, but I just think it's going to be too difficult for the Texans to pass on Clowney. He is the best player in this class and the most naturally talented defensive lineman I've ever evaluated, and guys like him simply don't come around that often. The Texans will find a good fit for him in defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel's versatile scheme.
2. St. Louis Rams (from WAS): Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
If Clowney goes No. 1, I think this pick will come down to Robinson or Clemson WR Sammy Watkins. I'm going with Robinson because the Rams need to keep QB Sam Bradford upright (especially given the pass-rushers they'll see in the NFC West), and because I have Robinson rated as the slightly better player. But I could see how St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher might lean in Watkins' direction. You need playmakers to offset the defensive backs in that division, and historically, Fisher does not spend high picks on offensive linemen. If Clowney drops, he's definitely in play here, or the Rams could get a lucrative offer to trade back.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
The likeliest options for the Jaguars in this scenario are Mack, WR Sammy Watkins or QBs Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Jacksonville really needs a QB, but in Mack the Jags would be getting the second-best defensive player in the draft and a guy who could play the "Leo" role in their defense -- the weakside edge player (something of a hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker) whose primary task is to disrupt opposing backfields as a pass-rusher and run defender. Mack is a tone-setter and a difference-maker, and he is versatile enough to hold up in pass coverage when asked.
4. Cleveland Browns: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
I think this pick would come down to Bortles or WR Sammy Watkins. I'm going with Bortles. While he isn't a perfect prospect at QB, he has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this class. He has some improving to do with his mechanics, but he showed clear progress in that area during his pro day workout, and he checks all the boxes in terms of his size (6-foot-5, 232 pounds), intangibles, character, mental makeup and leadership ability. He can also make plays with his legs and is more creative than he gets credit for.
5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
I'm told that if the Raiders are to select a QB at No. 5, it would be Blake Bortles. With him off the board in this scenario, I think they'd hold off on taking a QB and instead look to add a weapon for Matt Schaub in Watkins. They need help at wide receiver, and Watkins has an elite skill set with excellent acceleration as a vertical route runner and after the catch. He also has great competitiveness and body control on contested catches that allow him to play bigger than his 6-1, 211-pound frame.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
Jadeveon Clowney would be a prime target if the Falcons chose to trade up, and Greg Robinson and Khalil Mack would be tempting options if either slid to this spot. In this scenario, I think Matthews makes sense, as the Falcons need to do a better job of protecting QB Matt Ryan. Matthews is a very effective blocker in both the running game and passing game who has the versatility to play either left or right tackle. Atlanta can target a pass-rusher, safety and tight end in their next few picks.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
The Bucs are doing their due diligence in looking at the top QBs in this draft, but I think it's much more likely that they'll take a quarterback on Day 2 rather than at No. 7 overall, given that they already have Josh McCown and Mike Glennon in house. There is a significant talent drop off after Vincent Jackson on Tampa Bay's wide receiver depth chart, and Evans would provide another big target for McCown, who had success last season with the Bears throwing to a pair of big receivers in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. Evans is a proven downfield threat who is great at hauling in 50-50 balls.
8. Minnesota Vikings: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Taking Manziel at this spot will require a leap of faith on the part of the Vikings' brain trust, as he presents a significant gamble because of his on-field decision-making and long-term injury risk. But if they hit on this move, it could turn things around for them in a hurry. New offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a strong track record of developing different types of QBs -- I've heard he likes both Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater -- and there's no doubting Manziel's physical tools. He has the strongest arm of the top three quarterbacks, and his ability to extend plays and improvise is second to none.
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