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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 7:36:50 PM

ewen21

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

One thing that you have to realize Dustin is the environment these players are exposed to within the Twins system. It is not healthy except maybe now at FM where Dougie Baseball is the manager. The Twins suppress talent at all levels. They do not get the most out of their players. If you don't realize this you have not been paying attention for the past ten years.

I have hope Buxton will be as good as Torii Hunter

I am tired of hope in this organization. Show me.

I've heard his bottom is Torii Hunter and his ceiling is Mike Trrout.

I agree. SHow me

Post #: 926

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 7:40:12 PM

djskillz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Ewen, if you don't fully believe in a guy like Buxton, then we really can't have a meaningful discussion on prospects. He's the best prospect in the sport and the best prospect many (including myself) have ever seen. Yes, only about 10% of minor leaguers pan out. But a much larger percentage of "top 50" prospects that are at middle to higher levels pan out. Much higher. Not all of these guys will pan out of course. But many of them will. And again, this is by far the best group of prospects the Twins have ever had. It's not even close really. And it's not some conspiracy theory from MLB talent evaluators that they're ranked that high. They're ranked that high for a reason.

I'm not saying he is not going to make it. I'm just not ready to say he is a superstar until he actually produces at this level. That's all.

And the stat about first rounders was 66% play a game in the majors. Not even saying "pan out"
This is the historical data. I did not make up these numbers. I researched it.

And I wouldn't dispute that. 1st rd picks are still several years removed from the majors in a lot of cases. And a lot of injuries happen in between. To insinuate that something like 10% of "top prospects" (who have been playing a while and are closer to the majors in most cases) make it is flat out wrong though. Probably closer to 50% or possibly even higher.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

Post #: 927

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 7:54:33 PM

CPAMAN

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I would say Buxton's floor is Aaron Hicks that is somewhere in the basement of a dungy old building and hopefully a T. Hunter as the ceiling. But I would venture he will end up more like Denard Span type.

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Post #: 928

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 7:56:00 PM

ewen21

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Ewen, if you don't fully believe in a guy like Buxton, then we really can't have a meaningful discussion on prospects. He's the best prospect in the sport and the best prospect many (including myself) have ever seen. Yes, only about 10% of minor leaguers pan out. But a much larger percentage of "top 50" prospects that are at middle to higher levels pan out. Much higher. Not all of these guys will pan out of course. But many of them will. And again, this is by far the best group of prospects the Twins have ever had. It's not even close really. And it's not some conspiracy theory from MLB talent evaluators that they're ranked that high. They're ranked that high for a reason.

I'm not saying he is not going to make it. I'm just not ready to say he is a superstar until he actually produces at this level. That's all.

And the stat about first rounders was 66% play a game in the majors. Not even saying "pan out"
This is the historical data. I did not make up these numbers. I researched it.

And I wouldn't dispute that. 1st rd picks are still several years removed from the majors in a lot of cases. And a lot of injuries happen in between. To insinuate that something like 10% of "top prospects" (who have been playing a while and are closer to the majors in most cases) make it is flat out wrong though. Probably closer to 50% or possibly even higher.

I did not say that, nor did I insinuate that. That information was cut and paste from a very reliable source-- Baseball America. The 10% was regarding all minor league players "not top prospects" Dustin.

Post #: 929

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 7:56:35 PM

djskillz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

I would say Buxton's floor is Aaron Hicks that is somewhere in the basement of a dungy old building and hopefully a T. Hunter as the ceiling. But I would venture he will end up more like Denard Span type.

Torii Hunter is Buxton's "ceiling"?

You obviously have not ever seen him play or know very little about him as a prospect, Mark.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

Post #: 930

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 7:58:45 PM

djskillz

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From: Nashville, TN
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Ewen, if you don't fully believe in a guy like Buxton, then we really can't have a meaningful discussion on prospects. He's the best prospect in the sport and the best prospect many (including myself) have ever seen. Yes, only about 10% of minor leaguers pan out. But a much larger percentage of "top 50" prospects that are at middle to higher levels pan out. Much higher. Not all of these guys will pan out of course. But many of them will. And again, this is by far the best group of prospects the Twins have ever had. It's not even close really. And it's not some conspiracy theory from MLB talent evaluators that they're ranked that high. They're ranked that high for a reason.

I'm not saying he is not going to make it. I'm just not ready to say he is a superstar until he actually produces at this level. That's all.

And the stat about first rounders was 66% play a game in the majors. Not even saying "pan out"
This is the historical data. I did not make up these numbers. I researched it.

And I wouldn't dispute that. 1st rd picks are still several years removed from the majors in a lot of cases. And a lot of injuries happen in between. To insinuate that something like 10% of "top prospects" (who have been playing a while and are closer to the majors in most cases) make it is flat out wrong though. Probably closer to 50% or possibly even higher.

I did not say that, nor did I insinuate that. That information was cut and paste from a very reliable source-- Baseball America. The 10% was regarding all minor league players "not top prospects" Dustin.

Right. Which is a totally, totally different thing. No one is arguing that. If you took the Twins' signed draft picks this year, for example (about 25) only 3-4 will ever make the majors. That's not anything new and no revelation. But a significantly larger percentage of "top/established" prospects make it. And such will be the case with the Twins as well.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

Post #: 931

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 7:59:17 PM

ewen21

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

I would say Buxton's floor is Aaron Hicks that is somewhere in the basement of a dungy old building and hopefully a T. Hunter as the ceiling. But I would venture he will end up more like Denard Span type.

I remember BJ Uptpn, Rocco Baldell, Delmon Young and Carl Crawford being the rage about 8 or 10 years ago. Upton has been horrible, Baldelli got some illness (which is sad), YOung never reached his potential and Carl Crawford has tailed off horribly.

I'm very wary of all this hype. I see what you are saying but I have higher hopes for the kid

Post #: 932

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:01:52 PM

ewen21

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Right. Which is a totally, totally different thing. No one is arguing that. If you took the Twins' signed draft picks this year, for example (about 25) only 3-4 will ever make the majors. That's not anything new and no revelation. But a significantly larger percentage of "top/established" prospects make it. And such will be the case with the Twins as well.

Please qualify what that means. I only have the stats for first rounders which is pretty unbiased WOuldn't first rounders be top prospects?

Post #: 933

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:04:09 PM

CPAMAN

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

I would say Buxton's floor is Aaron Hicks that is somewhere in the basement of a dungy old building and hopefully a T. Hunter as the ceiling. But I would venture he will end up more like Denard Span type.

Torii Hunter is Buxton's "ceiling"?

You obviously have not ever seen him play or know very little about him as a prospect, Mark.

Torii Hunter would be a good quality player. He will maybe be more of Jacque Jones type guy.

_____________________________

Lots of Christopher Columbus statues available on ebay.

Post #: 934

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:04:45 PM

djskillz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Right. Which is a totally, totally different thing. No one is arguing that. If you took the Twins' signed draft picks this year, for example (about 25) only 3-4 will ever make the majors. That's not anything new and no revelation. But a significantly larger percentage of "top/established" prospects make it. And such will be the case with the Twins as well.

Please qualify what that means. I only have the stats for first rounders which is pretty unbiased WOuldn't first rounders be top prospects?

No. Not at all. When you're talking about "draft picks" half of those guys are coming out of high school and the vast majority have several years to go before making the majors with a lot of time in between for injuries or development issues to happen. I'm talking about guys that are "ranked" prospects in the game. Most of these guys have played for several years in the minors and are close to the majors, which also decreased the odds of flaming out/injury, etc. The Twins currently have 6 of the top 50 and several more knocking on the door for the top 100. The success rate of those are significantly higher than 10%. Probably much closer to 50%. When we're talking and excited about guys like Buxton/Sano/Meyer/May/Berrios/Stewart/Rosario/Vargas, we're talking about guys that are not all that far away. Every one of those guys with the exception of Stewart could well be in the Twins uniform by the end of next season.

< Message edited by djskillz -- 7/30/2014 8:06:30 PM >

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

Post #: 935

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:05:42 PM

ewen21

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Right. Which is a totally, totally different thing. No one is arguing that. If you took the Twins' signed draft picks this year, for example (about 25) only 3-4 will ever make the majors. That's not anything new and no revelation. But a significantly larger percentage of "top/established" prospects make it. And such will be the case with the Twins as well.

Please qualify what that means. I only have the stats for first rounders which is pretty unbiased WOuldn't first rounders be top prospects?

No. Not at all. I'm talking about guys that are "ranked" prospects in the game. Most of these guys have played for several years in the minors and are close to the majors, which also decreased the odds of flaming out/injury, etc. The Twins currently have 6 of the top 50 and several more knocking on the door for the top 100. The success rate of those are significantly higher than 10%. Probably much closer to 50%.

That is subjective. I simply went with first rounders to eliminate bias

Post #: 936

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:08:10 PM

djskillz

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So what if it's subjective. 1st rd picks doesn't mean a ton. There's a fairly strong consensus among scouts/talent evaluators who the "top" prospects are. One guy may be #3 on one's list and #7 on anothers, etc., but the top 50 or so won't have a ton of deviation between most of the most reliable sources. And again, those are the guys we're talking about. No one is talking about Nick Gordon just yet or guys like that because they are several years away. The guys we're talking about aren't. They're very, very close, right now.

< Message edited by djskillz -- 7/30/2014 8:10:52 PM >

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

Post #: 937

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:10:49 PM

ewen21

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Dustin, I don't want to piss you off. I am just presenting the information I have found. I guess I am just trying to temper my optimism. I really would like to see Buxton develop as a hitter. There seems to be a lot of focus on this speed and defense. That's all well and good but I want him to be an impact bat.

Post #: 938

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:12:28 PM

djskillz

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From: Nashville, TN
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

Dustin, I don't want to piss you off. I am just presenting the information I have found. I guess I am just trying to temper my optimism. I really would like to see Buxton develop as a hitter. There seems to be a lot of focus on this speed and defense. That's all well and good but I want him to be an impact bat.

I don't think you're looking at the information if you think that though. His bat has been awesome so far to go with his speed/defense, etc. He is a true 5-tool player and has performed as such throughout his time. His numbers at Cedar Rapids, for example, were almost identical to Mike Trout's there, which is a truly accurate comparison. There is a reason he's the #1 prospect in the sport, ewen. Look him up. And better yet, in a week or so when he's at New Britain, go watch him play. You will change your mind in a hurry.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

Post #: 939

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:16:17 PM

djskillz

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Buxton so far (and keep in mind he's been one of the very youngest players at every level he's played at):

2012: .248/.344/.448/.792
2013: .334/.424/.520/.944 (simply dominant for a CF'er) He was basically player of the year in two separate leagues
2014: .256/.333/.449/.782 (despite injuries; by the end of the year he'll probably be well over .900 OPS again)

< Message edited by djskillz -- 7/30/2014 8:17:47 PM >

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

Post #: 940

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:18:49 PM

ewen21

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

Dustin, I don't want to piss you off. I am just presenting the information I have found. I guess I am just trying to temper my optimism. I really would like to see Buxton develop as a hitter. There seems to be a lot of focus on this speed and defense. That's all well and good but I want him to be an impact bat.

I don't think you're looking at the information if you think that though. His bat has been awesome so far to go with his speed/defense, etc. He is a true 5-tool player and has performed as such throughout his time. His numbers at Cedar Rapids, for example, were almost identical to Mike Trout's there, which is a truly accurate comparison. There is a reason he's the #1 prospect in the sport, ewen. Look him up. And better yet, in a week or so when he's at New Britain, go watch him play. You will change your mind in a hurry.

Oh am hoping he gets there for sure. And I will go see him play.

Post #: 941

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 8:36:31 PM

CPAMAN

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Buxton so far (and keep in mind he's been one of the very youngest players at every level he's played at):

2012: .248/.344/.448/.792
2013: .334/.424/.520/.944 (simply dominant for a CF'er) He was basically player of the year in two separate leagues
2014: .256/.333/.449/.782 (despite injuries; by the end of the year he'll probably be well over .900 OPS again)

Buxton has had injuries but those play into a player's career. And maybe his BA is adjusting downward as the talent he faces increases.

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Lots of Christopher Columbus statues available on ebay.

Post #: 942

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 9:57:18 PM

Mr. Ed

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2-4 tonight for Buxton, a walk a run and 2 RBI.

man he sucks for not hitting any xbh

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Post #: 943

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 10:02:30 PM

Stacey King

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Once the Cubs get some pitching watch out.

They have the money to be FA players as well when thew timing is right on their kid hitters reaching the bigs, Scherzer this winter. Price in two years.

Lots of Cubs on hot streaks. July OPS #s:
Baez (1.008),
Bryant (.920),
Soler (1.538),
Russell (.868),
Almora (1.044)

Post #: 944

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 10:03:53 PM

Stacey King

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Class A right-hander Kohl Stewart underwent an MRI in the Twin Cities Tuesday after complaining of tightness in his throwing shoulder.

The MRI revealed no structural issues, Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony said, and an examination by Twins medical director Dr. John Steubs also found no problems.

Stewart, the fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft, first reported an issue with his throwing shoulder following a nine-hour bus ride from Cedar Rapids, Iowa to Bowling Green, Ky. Stewart, 19, was scratched from Wednesday’s scheduled start and was placed on the 7-day disabled list on Friday.

Stewart will resume playing catch for the Kernels as he works toward reclaiming his spot in the rotation. The Twins full expect Stewart, who missed time late last season with a minor shoulder issue, to pitch again this season.

Stewart has gone 3-5 with a 2.42 earned run average in 81 2/3 innings at Cedar Rapids this season. Over his past eight starts, dating to June 1, Stewart has posted a 1.86 ERA.

His last start came on July 17, when he threw five scoreless innings against Lake County.

Signed to a $4.54 million bonus last summer, Stewart was limited to 20 professional innings in his first season.

Post #: 945

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 10:04:59 PM

drew

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

I would say Buxton's floor is Aaron Hicks that is somewhere in the basement of a dungy old building and hopefully a T. Hunter as the ceiling. But I would venture he will end up more like Denard Span type.

Based upon what?

Post #: 946

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 10:25:21 PM

CPAMAN

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quote:

ORIGINAL: drew

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

I would say Buxton's floor is Aaron Hicks that is somewhere in the basement of a dungy old building and hopefully a T. Hunter as the ceiling. But I would venture he will end up more like Denard Span type.

Based upon what?

The Twins history of player development and hype for prospects that play well in the lower minor leagues. Buxton is already struggling with wrist injuries. He has to hit at AA and higher levels and show some power. A long way to go for him.

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Lots of Christopher Columbus statues available on ebay.

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 10:42:13 PM

wethrock

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Not a lot of chances to see Buxton in NB this year if/when he gets here. After this weekend, only 10 home games remaining.

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/30/2014 11:42:34 PM

ewen21

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wethrock

Not a lot of chances to see Buxton in NB this year if/when he gets here. After this weekend, only 10 home games remaining.

Pretty disappointing. I want to get there this year but without Buxton it just isn't worth the hour and half or so trip for me

Post #: 949

RE: Players and prospects III - 7/31/2014 5:26:30 AM

Mr. Ed

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: wethrock

Not a lot of chances to see Buxton in NB this year if/when he gets here. After this weekend, only 10 home games remaining.

Pretty disappointing. I want to get there this year but without Buxton it just isn't worth the hour and half or so trip for me

I wouldn't be surprised if Buxton stays in FTM,and plays in the playoffs for some extra games.

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