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RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 3:17:52 PM

Pager

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First downs can't be the only measure of value in comparing 50 600 to 63 for 625. Too many variables.

Doyle in 2017 on 50 catches, same YPR as Kyle 9.9, had 32 first downs.

Kyle also in 2017 had 32 first downs on 82 targets but only 9.3 YPR (57 receptions).

You would have to build a pretty impressive analysis to find the correlation (and how strong) on YPR to first downs.

I imagine it would have to include average down and distance.

< Message edited by Pager -- 5/18/2019 3:22:10 PM >

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Post #: 4526

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 3:23:17 PM

kgdabom

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There needs to be a balance between long and short passes. If less receptions higher ypc was the goal teams would throw nothing but deep balls. Jerry burns created the west coast offense of short passing to keep the chains moving. They credit that to Bill Walsh and all he did was make minor alterations to the Burns offense.

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Post #: 4527

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 4:12:03 PM

Bruce Johnson

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Even if we need to keep four TE's I still prefer to say goodbye to Rudy. I say that because I value blocking over a few catches. I don't think Rudy is a good fit for our scheme and I don't think he is going to be our number one TE option in the passing game anymore. He is getting starting pay, but I think of him as a really good backup. I would rather use the 7+ million in another way, including extending Morgan. If we do keep him, I completely understand and will root for him.

OK Bruce. Morgan and his 16 receptions 1 td over 3 years is more valuable than Rudy and his 204 receptions 19 tds over those same three years because Morgan blocks better.
RUDY is not a backup level TE by any stretch of the imagination and he is only paid what starting TEs are paid.

Rudolph is the second best TE pass catching option (as in backup) and worst pass blocking tight end option and the worst run blocking tight end option on the team. Again, I value blocking more than most. Last year Rudolph caught a pass on 9% of his snap counts. (I did the math) So 91% of the plays he was pass blocking or run blocking or running a passing route where he didn't catch it. I wish I had the number of plays that he specifically was blocking, but I don't have that. Still, clearly he must be blocking on more than half of his plays where he is lousy. (one of the worst in the NFL) And last year we had trouble running the ball and protecting our QB. He is also on the wrong side of his prime of his career and he is due over 7 million when we are against the cap.

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Post #: 4528

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 4:27:48 PM

Pager

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Even if we need to keep four TE's I still prefer to say goodbye to Rudy. I say that because I value blocking over a few catches. I don't think Rudy is a good fit for our scheme and I don't think he is going to be our number one TE option in the passing game anymore. He is getting starting pay, but I think of him as a really good backup. I would rather use the 7+ million in another way, including extending Morgan. If we do keep him, I completely understand and will root for him.

OK Bruce. Morgan and his 16 receptions 1 td over 3 years is more valuable than Rudy and his 204 receptions 19 tds over those same three years because Morgan blocks better.
RUDY is not a backup level TE by any stretch of the imagination and he is only paid what starting TEs are paid.

Rudolph is the second best TE pass catching option (as in backup) and worst pass blocking tight end option and the worst run blocking tight end option on the team. Again, I value blocking more than most. Last year Rudolph caught a pass on 9% of his snap counts. (I did the math) So 91% of the plays he was pass blocking or run blocking or running a passing route where he didn't catch it. I wish I had the number of plays that he specifically was blocking, but I don't have that. Still, clearly he must be blocking on more than half of his plays where he is lousy. (one of the worst in the NFL) And last year we had trouble running the ball and protecting our QB. He is also on the wrong side of his prime of his career and he is due over 7 million when we are against the cap.

Smoke that pipe Regis!

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Post #: 4529

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 6:07:59 PM

thebigo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

First downs can't be the only measure of value in comparing 50 600 to 63 for 625. Too many variables.

Doyle in 2017 on 50 catches, same YPR as Kyle 9.9, had 32 first downs.

Kyle also in 2017 had 32 first downs on 82 targets but only 9.3 YPR (57 receptions).

You would have to build a pretty impressive analysis to find the correlation (and how strong) on YPR to first downs.

I imagine it would have to include average down and distance.

I personally would prefer 50/600 to 63/625, on it's face, but YPA would also likely be a factor

Post #: 4530

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 6:13:55 PM

thebigo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

Am I in Bizarro world????

How can I explain it? The original number is 50 for 600. The revised is 63 for 625. It added 13 catches for 25 yards. Math does not allow you to assume those 13 catches add 10 per when the they actually added only 25 yards.

Seriously to protect my sanity, I either need to log out or someone other than KG tell me if my math skills are gone.

Oh come on man. Don't make me defend KG.

He's saying that the 63 catches for 625 yards is 10 ypc. We could expect at 50 catches that would have yielded about 500 yards, and the additional 13 catches would add about 130 yards at 10 ypc for (very conservatively IMO) another 7 1st downs.

That's not the argument. Would you rather have 50 for 600 vs 63 for 625? Of COURSE you would rather have 63 for 625 vs 50 for 500.

It was the corollary we were contemplating.

Post #: 4531

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 6:58:34 PM

kgdabom

Posts: 33510
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Even if we need to keep four TE's I still prefer to say goodbye to Rudy. I say that because I value blocking over a few catches. I don't think Rudy is a good fit for our scheme and I don't think he is going to be our number one TE option in the passing game anymore. He is getting starting pay, but I think of him as a really good backup. I would rather use the 7+ million in another way, including extending Morgan. If we do keep him, I completely understand and will root for him.

OK Bruce. Morgan and his 16 receptions 1 td over 3 years is more valuable than Rudy and his 204 receptions 19 tds over those same three years because Morgan blocks better.
RUDY is not a backup level TE by any stretch of the imagination and he is only paid what starting TEs are paid.

Rudolph is the second best TE pass catching option (as in backup) and worst pass blocking tight end option and the worst run blocking tight end option on the team. Again, I value blocking more than most. Last year Rudolph caught a pass on 9% of his snap counts. (I did the math) So 91% of the plays he was pass blocking or run blocking or running a passing route where he didn't catch it. I wish I had the number of plays that he specifically was blocking, but I don't have that. Still, clearly he must be blocking on more than half of his plays where he is lousy. (one of the worst in the NFL) And last year we had trouble running the ball and protecting our QB. He is also on the wrong side of his prime of his career and he is due over 7 million when we are against the cap.

Rudy is certainly our best pass catching TE unless Smith turns out historically good. IMO he is an average blocker for a #1 TE. I don't get where you think he is one of the worst in the league. He is probably the 2nd best TE blocker on our team. Smith is willing but small and I never heard that Conklin was a blocker. He is 29. Teams are signing 38 year old TES. You make up your own mind I guess.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 5/18/2019 7:02:45 PM >

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Post #: 4532

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 7:04:45 PM

kgdabom

Posts: 33510
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Even if we need to keep four TE's I still prefer to say goodbye to Rudy. I say that because I value blocking over a few catches. I don't think Rudy is a good fit for our scheme and I don't think he is going to be our number one TE option in the passing game anymore. He is getting starting pay, but I think of him as a really good backup. I would rather use the 7+ million in another way, including extending Morgan. If we do keep him, I completely understand and will root for him.

OK Bruce. Morgan and his 16 receptions 1 td over 3 years is more valuable than Rudy and his 204 receptions 19 tds over those same three years because Morgan blocks better.
RUDY is not a backup level TE by any stretch of the imagination and he is only paid what starting TEs are paid.

Rudolph is the second best TE pass catching option (as in backup) and worst pass blocking tight end option and the worst run blocking tight end option on the team. Again, I value blocking more than most. Last year Rudolph caught a pass on 9% of his snap counts. (I did the math) So 91% of the plays he was pass blocking or run blocking or running a passing route where he didn't catch it. I wish I had the number of plays that he specifically was blocking, but I don't have that. Still, clearly he must be blocking on more than half of his plays where he is lousy. (one of the worst in the NFL) And last year we had trouble running the ball and protecting our QB. He is also on the wrong side of his prime of his career and he is due over 7 million when we are against the cap.

Smoke that pipe Regis!

IMO that's almost 100% wrong.

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Post #: 4533

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 7:50:58 PM

Pager

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Out of 81 TEs with >107 snaps:

58th pass block grade

59th run block grade

Comparable to his YAC.

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Post #: 4534

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 7:52:20 PM

David Levine

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From: Las Vegas
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Even if we need to keep four TE's I still prefer to say goodbye to Rudy. I say that because I value blocking over a few catches. I don't think Rudy is a good fit for our scheme and I don't think he is going to be our number one TE option in the passing game anymore. He is getting starting pay, but I think of him as a really good backup. I would rather use the 7+ million in another way, including extending Morgan. If we do keep him, I completely understand and will root for him.

OK Bruce. Morgan and his 16 receptions 1 td over 3 years is more valuable than Rudy and his 204 receptions 19 tds over those same three years because Morgan blocks better.
RUDY is not a backup level TE by any stretch of the imagination and he is only paid what starting TEs are paid.

Rudolph is the second best TE pass catching option (as in backup) and worst pass blocking tight end option and the worst run blocking tight end option on the team. Again, I value blocking more than most. Last year Rudolph caught a pass on 9% of his snap counts. (I did the math) So 91% of the plays he was pass blocking or run blocking or running a passing route where he didn't catch it. I wish I had the number of plays that he specifically was blocking, but I don't have that. Still, clearly he must be blocking on more than half of his plays where he is lousy. (one of the worst in the NFL) And last year we had trouble running the ball and protecting our QB. He is also on the wrong side of his prime of his career and he is due over 7 million when we are against the cap.

Good stuff, Bruce.

Post #: 4535

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 7:54:48 PM

Pager

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Irv Smith Jr:

In-line Blocking - Has dominant moments on tape turning out defensive ends and winning as a drive blocker. Does well to play with good leverage, fit his hands and accelerate his feet. Stays square, but also takes advantage of angles to eliminate his man from plays.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/irv-smith-jr

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Post #: 4536

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 8:53:39 PM

kgdabom

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Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

Irv Smith Jr:

In-line Blocking - Has dominant moments on tape turning out defensive ends and winning as a drive blocker. Does well to play with good leverage, fit his hands and accelerate his feet. Stays square, but also takes advantage of angles to eliminate his man from plays.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/irv-smith-jr

I'm hopeful of Smith eventually becoming an adequate blocker for an NFL TE.

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Post #: 4537

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 9:05:39 PM

kgdabom

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This whole debate is a joke. Our 3 BACKUP TEs with a combined career total of 23 receptions and 1 TD are all all pro level and our starting TE with 204 receptions and 19 TDs over the last 3 seasons alone sucks and is just a kind of good backup receiver who has never blocked a defender in his life. Rudolph should only be on the field in the extremist of emergencies. He might be worth a minimum contract but should probably just be cut. The shit I'm seeing posted here is mind boggling. Not worth discussing. Have fun everybody. Yes I'm exaggerating a tiny bit.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 5/18/2019 9:08:54 PM >

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Post #: 4538

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/18/2019 9:52:13 PM

Pager

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Hilarious.

From a guy that has proclaimed a 7th rounder will not only make the team but instantly produce as our 3rd WR. Based on his college production. BUT ignores the college production of our 2nd rounder.

Classic KG.

Da

BOOM!

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Post #: 4539

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 12:18:20 AM

Bruce Johnson

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It looks like the Vikings want to keep Rudolph and are trying to make the numbers work. I don't begrudge a guy who believes in himself by taking a strong stand in his contract negotiations and I do appreciate his contributions on and off the field in the past. Being a Red Zone threat makes him a valuable player. If I saw him in another uniform I do believe I would be sad. That's why I reacted a bit emotionally when he refused to compromise. I do want the best possible team on the field because I'm a Vikings fan and they have a chance this year to be Super. Also, it is a valid point that tight ends usually take some time to develop. So you can see that I am listening to both sides of this issue. Just, I have decided that blocking is more important than being a pass catcher for a tight end and is a reason to play Rudolph less than in the past. That's why I think of him as a backup, now. I'm just a fan and don't know Rudolph as well as the Vikings staff does, so I have to acknowledge that I very well could be on the wrong side of this issue. Again, it does appear that the Vikings are patiently and persistently trying to make the numbers work.

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?

Post #: 4540

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 12:52:06 AM

Phil Riewer

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From: MN
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The reason I haven't posted about Rudolph for days is the same thing I said then...

Look at the targets going to Thielen and Diggs....look at the cash going to Thielen and Diggs. They are our bread and butter. Not 2 TE sets for receiving but blocking as Zimmer has mentioned running the ball during the season and offseason. More Cook, Boone, rookie RB....many of those point to less Rudolph. I see some targets going to the TE but with a true goal line RB in the rookie that also means less Red Zone targets for Rudy.....

< Message edited by Phil Riewer -- 5/19/2019 12:55:02 AM >

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Post #: 4541

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 2:12:17 AM

Bruce Johnson

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Interesting to see this list. Sorry to see no Vikings on it. (not just Rudolph) Sorry for the long link.

https://www.stadiumtalk.com/s/best-tight-ends-football-history-3af4a357e25e4ef1?utm_campaign=tightends-849946db67aa4da0&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=fac&utm_content=660325

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?

Post #: 4542

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 5:00:05 AM

Todd M

Posts: 39728
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: online

quote:

It looks like the Vikings want to keep Rudolph and are trying to make the numbers work.

Other than an unnamed source from idiot Florio and his crack team of ace reporters working without spell check, do we have anything that supports this?

Post #: 4543

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 5:18:24 AM

ratoppenheimer

Posts: 9308
Joined: 12/9/2007
From: cascais, portugal...still in exile
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

Hilarious.

From a guy that has proclaimed a 7th rounder will not only make the team but instantly produce as our 3rd WR. Based on his college production. BUT ignores the college production of our 2nd rounder.

Classic KG.

Da

BOOM!

we haven't seen it yet, but i have already bought into a vikings' base offense as 12 personnel...smith will be our new wr#3 from the tight end position...dennison and kubiak designing our new mobile zone o-line - cook shooting through the creases and mattison carrying defenders a couple of yards after contact...rudolph's length/catching radius and smith's quickness - diggs and thielen....

cousins is going to have to work on his rollout passing to the left more so we're less predictable....

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Post #: 4544

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 7:36:08 AM

jbusse

Posts: 1308
Joined: 9/11/2013
From: Atlanta, GA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

It looks like the Vikings want to keep Rudolph and are trying to make the numbers work. I don't begrudge a guy who believes in himself by taking a strong stand in his contract negotiations and I do appreciate his contributions on and off the field in the past. Being a Red Zone threat makes him a valuable player. If I saw him in another uniform I do believe I would be sad. That's why I reacted a bit emotionally when he refused to compromise. I do want the best possible team on the field because I'm a Vikings fan and they have a chance this year to be Super. Also, it is a valid point that tight ends usually take some time to develop. So you can see that I am listening to both sides of this issue. Just, I have decided that blocking is more important than being a pass catcher for a tight end and is a reason to play Rudolph less than in the past. That's why I think of him as a backup, now. I'm just a fan and don't know Rudolph as well as the Vikings staff does, so I have to acknowledge that I very well could be on the wrong side of this issue. Again, it does appear that the Vikings are patiently and persistently trying to make the numbers work.

It's Kyle Rudolph's illusions I recall, I really don't know Kyle Rudolph at all.

Post #: 4545

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 7:39:16 AM

Bill Jandro

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Joined: 8/13/2007
Status: online

Worth a read

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2019/5/18/18623742/vikings-kirk-cousins-all-stats-but-nothing-super

Starts out as a pretty damning article on Cousins failures but then goes on with some conclusive data as to why and how this could be rectified.

For example, Cousins numbers are identical to Brady's. Only Brady had a top ten rushing attack.

Sea is a good example. piss poor oline and running game equals missing the playoffs. They reconstructed their oline and had the #1 rushing attack last season and are back in the playoffs.

As much as this is a passing league a top ten defense and a top ten rushing attack are still the staple to success.

< Message edited by Bill Jandro -- 5/19/2019 9:07:39 AM >

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Post #: 4546

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 9:48:02 AM

kgdabom

Posts: 33510
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: jbusse

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

It looks like the Vikings want to keep Rudolph and are trying to make the numbers work. I don't begrudge a guy who believes in himself by taking a strong stand in his contract negotiations and I do appreciate his contributions on and off the field in the past. Being a Red Zone threat makes him a valuable player. If I saw him in another uniform I do believe I would be sad. That's why I reacted a bit emotionally when he refused to compromise. I do want the best possible team on the field because I'm a Vikings fan and they have a chance this year to be Super. Also, it is a valid point that tight ends usually take some time to develop. So you can see that I am listening to both sides of this issue. Just, I have decided that blocking is more important than being a pass catcher for a tight end and is a reason to play Rudolph less than in the past. That's why I think of him as a backup, now. I'm just a fan and don't know Rudolph as well as the Vikings staff does, so I have to acknowledge that I very well could be on the wrong side of this issue. Again, it does appear that the Vikings are patiently and persistently trying to make the numbers work.

It's Kyle Rudolph's illusions I recall, I really don't know Kyle Rudolph at all.

Good one Jbusse. Love that song and if you haven't heard the Paul Young and Clannad duet it's the best version by far. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ob0mYdbFjdU

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Post #: 4547

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 9:50:14 AM

kgdabom

Posts: 33510
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Worth a read

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2019/5/18/18623742/vikings-kirk-cousins-all-stats-but-nothing-super

Starts out as a pretty damning article on Cousins failures but then goes on with some conclusive data as to why and how this could be rectified.

For example, Cousins numbers are identical to Brady's. Only Brady had a top ten rushing attack.

Sea is a good example. piss poor oline and running game equals missing the playoffs. They reconstructed their oline and had the #1 rushing attack last season and are back in the playoffs.

As much as this is a passing league a top ten defense and a top ten rushing attack are still the staple to success.

Great Article.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."

Post #: 4548

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 10:08:58 AM

Guest

quote:

ORIGINAL: jbusse

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

It looks like the Vikings want to keep Rudolph and are trying to make the numbers work. I don't begrudge a guy who believes in himself by taking a strong stand in his contract negotiations and I do appreciate his contributions on and off the field in the past. Being a Red Zone threat makes him a valuable player. If I saw him in another uniform I do believe I would be sad. That's why I reacted a bit emotionally when he refused to compromise. I do want the best possible team on the field because I'm a Vikings fan and they have a chance this year to be Super. Also, it is a valid point that tight ends usually take some time to develop. So you can see that I am listening to both sides of this issue. Just, I have decided that blocking is more important than being a pass catcher for a tight end and is a reason to play Rudolph less than in the past. That's why I think of him as a backup, now. I'm just a fan and don't know Rudolph as well as the Vikings staff does, so I have to acknowledge that I very well could be on the wrong side of this issue. Again, it does appear that the Vikings are patiently and persistently trying to make the numbers work.

It's Kyle Rudolph's illusions I recall, I really don't know Kyle Rudolph at all.

https://youtu.be/8L1UngfqojI

Oh the memories.. The Purple People Eaters were just coming into their own when this one hit the charts..

Post #: 4549

RE: General Vikes Talk - 5/19/2019 10:20:50 AM

ratoppenheimer

Posts: 9308
Joined: 12/9/2007
From: cascais, portugal...still in exile
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Worth a read

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2019/5/18/18623742/vikings-kirk-cousins-all-stats-but-nothing-super

Starts out as a pretty damning article on Cousins failures but then goes on with some conclusive data as to why and how this could be rectified.

For example, Cousins numbers are identical to Brady's. Only Brady had a top ten rushing attack.

Sea is a good example. piss poor oline and running game equals missing the playoffs. They reconstructed their oline and had the #1 rushing attack last season and are back in the playoffs.

As much as this is a passing league a top ten defense and a top ten rushing attack are still the staple to success.

john defilippo completely ignored our quarterback's greatest strength....

Kirk Cousins has been the best play-action passer in the NFL over the past four years.

His passer rating on play-action passes, beginning in 2015, has ranked 1st, 11th, 2nd, and 4th over the past four seasons among QBs with at least 100 play-action attempts, according to Pro Football Focus. His play-action passer rating has averaged about 116 over that span, vs. 98.1 overall.

And yet every year, he’s well down the list in the percentage of play-action passes run. In 2015 he ranked 18th, 15th in 2016 and 2017, and 20th last year.

That is likely to change this season as Gary Kubiak favors play-action, and so have the Vikings for most of Kevin Stefanski’s tenure on the offensive staff. Starting in 2012, the Vikings have ranked 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 3rd, 9th and 2nd in percentage of play-action passes, beginning with Bill Musgrave as offensive coordinator, to Norv Turner, and ending with Pat Shurmur. That percentage dropped to 20th under John DeFilippo last season.

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Post #: 4550