DavidAOlson
Posts: 18939
Joined: 8/2/2007
Status: online
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TJSweens ... I could be wrong, but I think that component varies from state to state. I don't know how it affects the 600,000 figure, but as far as extra money paid, it makes no difference. Hospitals get compensated for treating covid, not for reporting covid deaths. And again, those state-by-state data issues make the "excess deaths" approach a simpler approach. Digging through all the state death certificates is a major slog, as is correcting for excesses or omissions from differences in state-by-state policies. It's easier to calculate the expected number of deaths, make (minor) adjustments for the lockdown, and then subtract that number from total deaths. And in the US, the result is that the COVID pandemic has killed about 900,000. It's not a surprise that the death certificate number is lower. Early on, testing was rare. And, for example, NYC had an outsized number of cardiac arrest deaths outside hospitals. Plus other states deliberately understated official COVID deaths by excluding cases without a positive COVID test (omissions because of a shortage of tests, false negatives, and testing isn't done when immediate treatment is obvious and the patient dies, etc.). Obviously that number is going to go up as the Delta strain breaks out from Missouri & Arkansas, where that strain is driving the case numbers back up. I haven't seen an explanation for the increase in Eastern Texas, but that's plausibly spillover from Arkansas.
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I give myself very good advice, but I very seldom follow it. --- Alice
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