David F.
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro
Themes of the process
The overall results of the Vikings’ guard play from 2015-2020 are as follows:
— One player ranked in the top 15 overall by Pro Football Focus in one season (Joe Berger, 2017).
— Eight of 12 guard seasons ranked at least 40th in pass blocking grade
— Even with an emphasis on run blocking, guards ranked in the top 20 only three times
Some processes that repeated over the years:
— Nearly every year someone was asked to change positions.
— Multiple players were called to starting duty having never in their career been asked to start. Some of those players worked out in Harris, Berger and Easton.
— No matter how much a guard struggled, he was never replaced except for Cleveland taking over for Samia (and technically speaking Samia got injured).
— The two players who signed multiple-year contracts were both past their primes and neither made it past a single season.
— The league got harder. A grade of 70.0 in 2020 would put a guard in the top 15. In 2015, a 70.0 grade would have ranked 36th. The degree of difficulty jump for guards may be due to more teams using edge rushers over guards in pass rushing situations and putting more emphasis on defensive tackles who can get after quarterbacks.
— Three players (Harris, Berger, Kline) retired and one (Easton) suffered a season-ending injury. They were four of the better guards the Vikings had in the Zimmer era.
— The Vikings rarely spent draft capital on guards. Here’s a list of the guards they drafted from 2015-2020:
2020 — second round — Ezra Cleveland (played tackle in college)
2020 — seventh round — Kyle Hinton
2019 — fourth round — Dru Samia
2018 — sixth round — Colby Gossett
2017 — fifth round — Danny Isidora
The Vikings also rarely poured cap space into the position. Here’s where they ranked in total O-line spending (via OverTheCap.com):
2021: 32nd
2020: 32nd
2019: 28th
2018: 21st
2017: 30th
2016: 3rd
2015: 3rd
Here are the single-season cap hits for guards who were not on their rookie contracts:
Brandon Fusco — $3.5 million (2015), $4.0 million (2016)
Alex Boone — $6.7 million
Joe Berger — $1.7 million (2016), $2.1 million (2017)
Tom Compton — $900,000
Mike Remmers — $4.6 million
Josh Kline — $3.1 million
Conclusions on process versus luck
The Vikings have had their fair share of bad luck along the offensive line. Nobody would have expected Harris or Kline’s careers to come to early ends or Easton to be lost for the entire 2018 season due to back surgery. Any one of those guards could have had long Vikings careers and solidified their positions.
But in terms of making your own luck, well, the Vikings did not do much of that at guard either. They have spent very little capital on the position over the years in the draft or free agency. They haven’t taken swings at players in the middle-to-late rounds and even chose multiple specialists rather than taking lottery tickets at guard despite the consistent need.
They asked tackles to play guard, centers to play guard, right guards to become left guards and career backups to become starters. And then they often committed to those players at those spots.
Of course, there’s only so much money to go around when pouring cap space into a quarterback and numerous defensive players but they may have overlooked the NFL’s increase in interior pressure in recent years and the susceptibility of their quarterback to such issues. Bridgewater and Keenum were mobile and Bradford had a quick release. Cousins does not possess either of those skills.
Now it appears the processes are going to be repeated unless the Vikings select a guard higher in the draft or pull off a trade. Their options for this offseason at guard appear to be A) leaving Ezra Cleveland at guard and either signing a cheap veteran or drafting someone to start as a rookie B) waiting and acquiring someone from another team in a camp cut or trade C) moving Cleveland to left tackle and doing some combination of signing/drafting both guard spots.
Where does that leave them? Probably with Cousins still facing pressure up the middle.
However, what we’ve seen from the likes of Berger and Easton is that the position doesn’t have to be emphasized with huge dollars and top draft picks if the under-the-radar players work out to combine for average results. The bar isn’t as high as it might be for QB, receiver, defensive end, cornerback, etc. to hold down the fort.
The Vikings still have a chance to find those types of players. Doing it with past backups, out-of-position linemen and late draft picks might not get it done.
per Matthew Coller
Great piece. This should put to rest the outdated myth that only 'those within the organizations are smart enough to know about decision making'. He identifies the problem, provides facts, reviews history, and offers a solution. Too bad his last name isn't Zimmer or Kubiak.
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I wouldn't give ANY qb $30-50+ mil unless that QB had won me a Super Bowl. Did you win a Super Bowl on your rookie deal? Yes? Great! Here's your hugenormous contract. F it let's just run victory laps and love life. No? Good luck. Next!
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