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RE: 2024 Draft

 
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RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 1:07:33 PM   
David Levine


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Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.
Post #: 1451
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 1:25:10 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

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Post #: 1452
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 1:41:35 PM   
beo

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bongbong

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

Just listened to Dustin Baker on PAs show. He believes the Vikings and Patriots have a deal in place contingent on what the Commanders with #2. He believes the Vikings are all in on Maye.


I think Maye is super intriguing. Definitely needs to sit a year, but has real upside potential.


Considering about half of the pro-ready/can't miss college QBs will bust,, spending multiple 1sts on one you think needs to sit seems nutso, imo.

Is give up 11 and 23 for Daniels at #3, though


If you think sitting a qb can maximize his chance of success... do it... regardless of where you draft or spent.
Post #: 1453
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:08:00 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

Nobody in their right mind thinks 'Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees' or he'd be drafted no. 1 overall.
Post #: 1454
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:12:34 PM  1 votes
David Levine


Posts: 77938
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

Nobody in their right mind thinks 'Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees' or he'd be drafted no. 1 overall.


I hear his downside is a more athletic Tom Brady.
Post #: 1455
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:16:23 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

Nobody in their right mind thinks 'Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees' or he'd be drafted no. 1 overall.


I hear his downside is a more athletic Tom Brady.

Nice. A more athletic Tom Brady ... a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees ... and nicer than Mother Teresa.

Should be gone by #12.
Post #: 1456
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:29:07 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

Nobody in their right mind thinks 'Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees' or he'd be drafted no. 1 overall.

I don't think he achieves that upside and he doesn't go #1 by that being his upside. He would go #1 if that was expected of him. Players seldom hit their upside, but that is what his upside is.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 4/24/2024 2:31:37 PM >


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Post #: 1457
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:30:06 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

Nobody in their right mind thinks 'Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees' or he'd be drafted no. 1 overall.


I hear his downside is a more athletic Tom Brady.

No he's more like Brees.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 1458
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:30:50 PM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Penix just impresses me as someone who will struggle mightily without a clean pocket.

Nix is a product of the most qb friendly offense in college football and a great set of receivers going against a weak schedule.

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Post #: 1459
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:30:54 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

Nobody in their right mind thinks 'Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees' or he'd be drafted no. 1 overall.


I hear his downside is a more athletic Tom Brady.

Nice. A more athletic Tom Brady ... a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees ... and nicer than Mother Teresa.

Should be gone by #12.

I expect him to be gone by 12.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 1460
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:36:10 PM   
TJSweens


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If you mean 12th pick of the second round, I agree.

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Post #: 1461
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 2:57:52 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Every year there are "for sure 1st round QBs" that drop out of the first.

I won't be at all surprised if Nix is the guy this year. His upside is just far too limited.

Penix could as well. He has a tremendous ceiling, but also tremendous red flags.

Absolutely true. Players drop unexpectedly every draft.
Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees. To me that isn't a limited upside.

Nobody in their right mind thinks 'Nix upside is a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees' or he'd be drafted no. 1 overall.


I hear his downside is a more athletic Tom Brady.

Nice. A more athletic Tom Brady ... a bigger, more athletic, stronger armed Drew Brees ... and nicer than Mother Teresa.

Should be gone by #12.

I expect him to be gone by 12.

That's because anything can happen. Not because you know something others don't.

Gzuz I actually secretly want to like Nix but I can't for fear of your annoying Dilly Dilly.

Oops ... lets see ... how do I protect myself ...

Bo Nix is lame!
Post #: 1462
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 3:48:52 PM   
TJSweens


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The bigger, stronger, more athletic Drew Brees is product of a system.

It's easy to get caught up in Nix's stats. You also need to add context to his numbers.

Oregon uses an air raid spread offense to take advantage of the wider college hash marks. It uses the wider hashes to create high percentage, short passing lanes. The offense is built on high percentage, short passes and simple vertical reads. Air raid is all about completion % and YAC.

2/3 of Nix’s completions were behind or just past the LOS. He completed 88% of those passes. I think it's safe to say any of the top 6 could have completed 75% of their passes in that system.

His 3 years at Auburn, Nix was a 60% passer with a y/a of about 7 yds, 39 TD and 16 int. His first year at Oregon his comp % jumped 12 points, Y/A jumped to 8.8 yds. As a 5th year starter it jumped again to 77% and 9.6 yds.

Competition is another factor. Nix faced low level defenses in a relatively weak schedule.

Nix's age is another factor. As a 5th year starter, the college game tends to slow down a bit.

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Post #: 1463
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 4:07:15 PM   
David Levine


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Nix:

"I think his ceiling's probably like a middle-of-the-pack starter, but he's got to have the right offense, right coach. At worst, he's going to be a great 2," an AFC executive said. "He didn't have any finesse to his game at all in the past, and he's got a little bit of it more now. And he's really improved his accuracy. He was just a big f---ing strong athlete, fast. If the guy walked by and I said he's a second-round strong safety, you'd be like, ‘Oh, OK.' He's built really good. He'll have some moments where he gets playing too fast. He'll get sped-up mannerisms. I don't think he's shown he's an elite processor, but he has some moments where you see good processing. He'll hold the f---ing ball too long sometimes. But everything about him's improved."

"Bo operates like a coach's kid," an NFC assistant coach said. "Carries himself that way, talks that way. He played solid ball. A lot of what he threw was quick game, RPOs and a couple shots down the field. You don't see as much variety on his tape as some of the other guys, just because of the style of system they played in. I just don't know how much room he has to get better. In my opinion, it's like almost as good as he's going to be. He could be a quality, high-end backup to start and perform well in the right system with guys around him."

"He's a West Coast, quick-rhythm-offense guy where the ball's out of his hand fast," an NFC coordinator said. "He's not holding onto it. You're not asking him to throw deep shots, because he doesn't have the greatest arm."

For some, the Ducks' scheme protected deficiencies that may show up more in the NFL.

"The degree of difficulty of the throws he was asked to make are very low," an NFC executive said. "I think the SEC kind of showed who he was, which was not impressive. But I think when you go to the Oregon stuff -- they made it easy for him."

Said an NFC quarterbacks coach: "Some ridiculous percentage (65.9% last season, per PFF) of his completions are within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage or less. Seeing him push the ball down the field is different. He's not as accurate as some of those other guys.

"He's 6-2, he's 220, he's a mobile enough athlete -- all that stuff. But is he gonna be good enough?" an NFC scout said. "I think he's going to be a little bit like Sam Howell. I don't know that he's going to be a bona fide starter in the NFL. Arm talent's not the best; he was accurate on the short stuff, but it was the factor of the offense, to me, this (past) year. He doesn't feel like a guy that has the physical ability to really carry a team. Will somebody believe he can (start)? Probably. Somebody might fall in love with him."

https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-pro-execs-scouts-coaches-rank-and-evaluate-the-top-20-prospects-in-this-qb-class
Post #: 1464
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 4:08:07 PM   
David Levine


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I'd rather have Rattler than Nix.

Take the boom/bust shot over the guy you're always going to be looking to upgrade from.
Post #: 1465
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 4:11:12 PM   
David Levine


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A onetime five-star recruit who left Oklahoma after being benched for Caleb Williams, Rattler reinvented himself over the past two years with the Gamecocks. And scouts say he has helped himself as much as any QB in the pre-draft process, both on and off the field.

"I have Spencer higher than Penix," an NFC scouting director said. "Spencer's got a better arm, better release, probably has better fundamentals, has played in a couple of pro-style offenses now. I know he's kind of the forgotten name. He has matured tremendously. I thought he nailed his interview at the Senior Bowl. Every time I've ever heard this kid give an interview, he's had every chance to throw Caleb Williams under the bus and he does not do it. It wouldn't surprise me if this kid's the one still standing."

In 45 college games (42 starts), Rattler completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 10,807 yards and 77 touchdowns with 32 interceptions, running for 16 more scores. That includes consecutive 3,000-yard passing seasons at South Carolina, where he didn't get a lot of help.

"You feel bad for that kid, because I've never seen so many dropped balls on him and he got absolutely beat to crap," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "They couldn't protect him and they couldn't catch. That was about as brutal a tape as I've watched."

As a player, the primary concerns are Rattler's size (6-0 1/4, 211), speed (4.95 40-yard dash) and tendency to get loose with the football.

"Rattler's a good little player. I hate how little he is," an AFC executive said. "And he's gotta f---ing learn -- he's a little reckless. 'Hey, Spencer, chill the f--- out.' But he's got arm talent now."

Said an AFC scouting director: "I think Spencer Rattler is a good player, and in the right situation, he can be a starter in the NFL. He's definitely edgy and super confident, which I kind of like. But what I like about Spencer's film the last couple years is he went to more of a mid-tier SEC team, so every week they were playing against people better and faster than them. There's probably more throws that he made from tight pockets, under duress than any other prospect. And that's the NFL. He's made those throws. And he made more throws where I rewound the tape and I was like, 'Wow, that was a f---ing great throw.' I just wish he was bigger. He feels really small out there."

"No one had a worse offensive line than him," an NFC coordinator said. "There's enough on tape that show timing, anticipation. I don't see him getting a lack of vision or covered up by linemen. I think he's got a knack. He's got a little Jeff Garcia to him."

Said an AFC scout: "Look, the whole thing when he was in high school -- that part of it has stuck with him. But I think he's matured. He got the s--- kicked out of him at South Carolina this year. But he's got a live arm, man. He started and played well at Oklahoma. He's a guy I really feel like is underrated. And he didn't test well. You know what happens. Look at Russell Wilson or somebody who goes a little bit later. He could be that guy."

https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-pro-execs-scouts-coaches-rank-and-evaluate-the-top-20-prospects-in-this-qb-class
Post #: 1466
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 4:28:11 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

If you mean 12th pick of the second round, I agree.

We will find out where Nix goes in about 30 hours. Which means first round. I could be wrong and you can be wrong. One of us will be wrong. It's kind of fun. With all the dread I'm looking at this draft with it will bring something light to enjoy.

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Post #: 1467
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 4:47:30 PM   
Bill Jandro

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Ian Rapoport@RapSheet
From the NFL: The league’s review into the #Falcons and #Eagles potential tampering is ongoing and will not conclude this week.

If there are draft picks involved, sounds like it'll be next year's.

Sometimes the NFL is nothing but a bad joke

_____________________________

Oline...early and often this draft
Post #: 1468
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 5:58:54 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Ian Rapoport@RapSheet
From the NFL: The league’s review into the #Falcons and #Eagles potential tampering is ongoing and will not conclude this week.

If there are draft picks involved, sounds like it'll be next year's.

Sometimes the NFL is nothing but a bad joke



_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 1469
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 6:23:48 PM   
kgdabom

 

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In about 24 hours I'm prepared to hear the words I don't want to hear. "We have a trade. The New England Patriots have sent the #3 pick to the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota is on the clock."
For some strange reason they never announce what compensation was given to the team sending the pick.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 4/24/2024 6:33:18 PM >


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Post #: 1470
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 6:24:57 PM   
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Ian Rapoport@RapSheet
From the NFL: The league’s review into the #Falcons and #Eagles potential tampering is ongoing and will not conclude this week.

If there are draft picks involved, sounds like it'll be next year's.

Sometimes the NFL is nothing but a bad joke


Eh. I never expected to get anything. It was clear we weren't resigning him.
Post #: 1471
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/24/2024 11:11:53 PM   
Chris Olson


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So as things are starting to settle a little in the last 24 hrs before the draft, I have some thoughts:

1. If we can't make the trade up for Maye or Daniels, I think we stay put...kinda think NE stays put at 3
2. feeling a little more like Nix is a legit option at 11 (though I don't want that)
3. JJ McCarthy will fall to us or beyond
4. Byron Murphy could be the rising defensive player that blows us away, a la Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack...could go to ATL, first defensive player off the board
5. Loving the idea of getting 2 great players in rd 1...especially because so few defensive players are likely to be picked and we likely get a stud at cb, de or dt
6. I will be interested to see who they really like at QB among the second tier of JJ, Penix, Nix when all 3 are available at 11...
7. I wouldn't be shocked to trade down from 11, or more likely 23...
8. Can't wait to see the draft play out and get the offseason fan plan for the Super Bowl to get started!
Post #: 1472
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/25/2024 6:13:34 AM   
Bill Jandro

 

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2. feeling a little more like Nix is a legit option at 11 (though I don't want that)

Nix is Christian Ponder ll. Just don't do it

4. Byron Murphy could be the rising defensive player that blows us away, a la Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack...could go to ATL, first defensive player off the board

I think Atl takes Dallas Turner. Murphy or Arnold will be there at 11. Then trade down off 23 and get some second day capital and fill holes.

To me Rattler may end up being as good as McCarthy/Penix/Nix at a lower pick.

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Post #: 1473
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/25/2024 7:32:44 AM   
Daniel Lee Young

 

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WE have two picks today..

Then nothing? Until the 4th round…

People saying he can fix this team, or defending KAM and his management “ style” are not all that bright.

We are trying to fix a 7-10 team with one valid Starting QB and multiple holes on the DL , garbage at center, and other positions with 9 picks..

7 of which are 4-7 th round players who will be picked fron the dumpster behind Pizza King…in Detroit.

Total dysfunctional management, yet thousands of fans are “ hyped” about the possibility of a breakout season in 2024.

What koolaid are those people drinking?

KAM is so far in over his head, he needs a 20 foot extention ladder to get his head out of the dumpster that is on fire…


This is gonna be worse than his first draft.

< Message edited by Daniel Lee Young -- 4/25/2024 7:34:36 AM >


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**** you all.
Post #: 1474
RE: 2024 Draft - 4/25/2024 7:40:50 AM   
Phil Riewer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young
WE have two picks today..
Then nothing? Until the 4th round…
People saying he can fix this team, or defending KAM and his management “ style” are not all that bright.
We are trying to fix a 7-10 team with one valid Starting QB and multiple holes on the DL , garbage at center, and other positions with 9 picks..
7 of which are 4-7 th round players who will be picked fron the dumpster behind Pizza King…in Detroit.
Total dysfunctional management, yet thousands of fans are “ hyped” about the possibility of a breakout season in 2024.
What koolaid are those people drinking?
KAM is so far in over his head, he needs a 20 foot extention ladder to get his head out of the dumpster that is on fire…
This is gonna be worse than his first draft.


No Free Agents?

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Post #: 1475
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