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Olneys Top Ten Third Basemen
In keeping with our recent theme of ranking the top 10 players at each position in baseball, today we tackle third basemen.
Unlike second base and shortstop, two other positions we've recently rated, third base is stacked. (We've also gone through first basemen and catchers thus far.)
The top 10 third basemen in MLB:
1. Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics
It’s not clear yet whether Oakland can contend in 2015, or whether the Athletics will soon go through another round of rebuilding. But they have told other teams that Donaldson is not being traded this winter -- and who could blame them, based on his performance the past two seasons?
Donaldson shocked rival evaluators with his adept defensive transition from catcher to third, and during the past two seasons, Donaldson has 53 homers, 152 walks and 191 RBIs. He turns 29 in December, and if the Athletics ever decide to move him, they could get a whole lot of value in return.
2. Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
When Rendon was in college, scouts were struck by how calm he was in his plate appearances, how much command he seemed to have in his at-bats. In his first full season in the big leagues, he finished fifth in the NL MVP voting after reaching base 239 times and scoring 111 runs, with 39 doubles, six triples and 21 homers.
At age 24, he’s only just begun.
3. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Evaluators say his exceptional defense of past years has slipped, understandable given the fact that he just finished his 17th season in the big leagues. But Beltre continues to be a beast at the plate, hitting .324 with 53 extra-base hits last season.
It appears he has more than a legit shot at 3,000 hits: Beltre stands at 2,604, along with 395 homers, 528 doubles and 1,256 runs. The Hall of Fame? That’s a done deal.
4. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
He put in a lot of work on pre-pitch preparation and greatly improved his defense, for which he was rewarded with the AL Gold Glove for 2014. He took advantage of the chances that were created in having Robinson Cano hit in front of him, driving in 97 runs, with 56 extra-base hits.
Seager finished 15th in the majors in WAR in 2014.
5. Pablo Sandoval, free agent
Focus on all the downside of the Panda, if you’d prefer -- the past conditioning issues, the good-but-not-great regular-season production. But the bidding that is going on right now for his services demonstrates just how much his particular skills are valued -- apparently the Panda is an endangered species in baseball’s evolution, as a third baseman who can hit with left-handed power. (Sandoval, of course, is a switch-hitter.)
His next contract may climb over $100 million, and he’s capable of good defense and carrying a middle-of-the-order spot. Plus, he’s got that knack for the October stage.
6. Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
He reached base 265 times last season, and while his extra-base-hit production dipped during the regular season, he demonstrated in the postseason that he’s fully capable of loading up and driving the ball. Carpenter had eight extra-base hits (four doubles and four homers) in 39 plate appearances against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in October, and he showed time and again how difficult he is to pitch to because of the ferocity of his at-bats; he just does not give in.
Carpenter averaged 4.37 pitches per plate appearance during the regular season, best in the NL, and drew a league-high 95 walks. His epic at-bats against Clayton Kershaw in the past two postseasons should be shown to minor leaguers as models of focus and fight in the batter’s box.
7. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
Before he got hurt on May 23, it seemed Arenado was generating one or two Web Gems daily. He had good numbers at the plate, too, hitting .287 with 34 doubles, two triples and 18 homers in 111 games (although his home/road splits, as with so many other Colorado players, are eye-catching, with an OPS difference of more than 200 points).
The only reason he’s not higher on this list is that he doesn’t have as much of a track record: He's still just 23 years old and hasn’t played more than 133 games in a season.
8. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
He’s had two unusual knee injuries the past two seasons, on two unusual plays -- the most recent being a collapse in the batter’s box while swinging -- and this certainly makes you wonder whether he’ll be able to stay healthy. But when he has, he’s been among the most dominant defenders in the sport, with his powerful arm and quick reactions. Machado started slowly in the spring as he returned from his first knee injury, but by the time he suffered his second knee injury, his slash line in 2014 (.278/.324/.431) was almost identical to what he generated in 2013 (.283/.314/.432).
The Orioles have a major quandary facing them about whether to invest a really big long-term deal in Machado, given the nature of his knee injuries, but they’ll worry about that down the road. Orioles sources indicated Saturday that they expect Machado will be good to go in March after completing the rehabilitation from his second knee injury.
9. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
Not only did Frazier climb to All-Star status in 2014, during which he hit 29 homers and drove in 80 runs, but it seemed that he and catcher Devin Mesoraco continued to develop as leaders of the Reds. Cincinnati has issues in different parts of its lineup, but third base shouldn’t be a problem for the foreseeable future.
Let’s start the nominating process now: Frazier should be the captain of the NL Home Run Derby team next July in Cincinnati.
10. Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates center fielder and 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen tried to make the case to anyone who would listen late in the season that Harrison was actually the Pittsburgh MVP in 2014, for all that he did offensively and for the way that he saved the team with his defensive flexibility.
With Pedro Alvarez now permanently shifted to first base, Harrison has a position to call his own.
Honorable mentions
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays: At the outset of arranging these rankings, I assumed that I would have the 29-year-old Longoria somewhere among the top five or six. After all, Longoria ranked near the top of the AL in WAR every season from 2009 to 2011. But in examining how he played compared to his positional peers in 2014, it became impossible to justify a high ranking.
Longoria’s slugging percentage ranked 14th among third basemen last season, and his on-base percentage was 17th. For the first time in his career, he scored a negative number in defensive runs saved, and overall, that landed him behind Cody Asche and Casey McGehee, who are multiple Gold Glove winners, as Longoria is.
Some scouts thought Longoria’s legs weren’t right in 2014, that he didn’t have the same power in his swing. Maybe that will come back in 2015, and he’ll climb these rankings again.
Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee recently signed on for another season of Ramirez at $14 million. Ramirez turns 37 next year, and is approaching some benchmarks: He needs 36 doubles for 500 in his career, and 31 homers for 400.
David Wright of the New York Mets would normally be in this group, but is coming off a tough season; Chase Headley, currently a free agent in line for a multiyear deal, is also not far behind; and in 2015, we’ll see if the Kansas City Royals' Mike Moustakas follows up on his improvement in the second half and in the postseason.
_____________________________
Work like a Captain.
Play like a Pirate.
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