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Insider from Olney
The 30 Linchpin Players of 2014 
January, 19, 2014 By Buster Olney
 Starlin Castro, Xander Bogaerts and Victor Martinez will have to play key roles for their teams in 2014.The Cardinals would love for a strong season from Matt Adams, but you know what? If he requires more time to settle in as a regular, they’ve got enough other parts to win without a big contribution from the first baseman. The same could be said for Ryan Zimmerman; the Nationals don’t have to have a big season from him, and the Giants probably aren’t banking on a Cy Young-caliber season from Tim Lincecum.
But beyond the obvious stars, like a Miguel Cabrera, Adam Wainwright or Mike Trout, each of the 30 teams has a player whose performance will be most pivotal.
Presenting: The linchpin players of 2014:
Arizona Diamondbacks: Miguel Montero. They greatly value him, and they’re paying him to be a key part of their lineup. When he didn’t hit last season, it really, really hurt; he must be an effective complement to Paul Goldschmidt.
Atlanta Braves: Justin Upton. The Braves could really use bounce-back seasons from Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton, but neither is going to fundamentally change as a hitter; both have been prone to streaks of good and bad.
But as Upton demonstrated last season, he was a transformative player for this lineup. When he hit well, other weaknesses were greatly obscured, and when he struggled, there seemed to be a ripple effect throughout the lineup. Freddie Freeman is the team’s best hitter, Jason Heyward is improving, but Upton is the linchpin guy.
Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado. They really haven’t done much in the way of roster augmentation this winter, so if the O’s are to have any chance to contend in 2014, their key guys must click, and this means a rapid recovery from Machado, who is coming off knee surgery.
Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts. Jacoby Ellsbury is gone, and Stephen Drew might be gone, and the Red Sox are comfortable because they have arguably the best young player (in the generation following Mike Trout, Machado and Bryce Harper) in Bogaerts. He awed veteran players with his poise and play in the postseason, and if he plays at least a steady shortstop and has as much of an immediate impact as Machado did, the Red Sox will move a long way toward making up for Ellsbury’s lost production.
Bogaerts was welcomed home after his postseason showing, writes Scott Lauber.
Honorable mention: David Ortiz. It’s hard to overstate how important he is to their offense.
Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro. Rick Renteria was chosen to manage this team in part because of his reputation for being great with players from Latin America, and the timing of this is not a coincidence, given the recent troubles of Castro. The shortstop's regression is not quite a full-blown crisis, but with another bad season, it would be, because the Cubs have invested a lot of money in him and they need him to be good. Look at his OPS by year:
2010: .755
2011: .773
2012: .753
2013: .631
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu. They paid him a lot of money to fortify a fading core of hitters, and now they need him to deliver.
Cincinnati Reds: Billy Hamilton. In a perfect world, Hamilton would be eased into the big leagues, placed at the bottom of the lineup and forgotten at the outset of his major league development. But this is a team built amid high expectations, and in the aftermath of the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, there are sabermetric models that suggest Cincinnati will take a significant step back this season. The Reds need Hamilton, with his unique skill set, to be a really effective player right away.
The Reds will be relying on their core players.
Cleveland Indians: Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s a mystery among some rival evaluators right now, because they’ve seen in the past how good he can be. The Indians believe he’ll recover this season, an important year in his career; Cabrera will be eligible for free agency in the fall.
Colorado Rockies: Tyler Chatwood. He had a good first half, and a good September, and as always for the Rockies, they will go only so far as their pitching takes them. If Chatwood continues to develop, the Rockies will have some hope for the rotation with him, Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin.
Detroit Tigers: Victor Martinez. The Tigers have a more diverse offense than in 2012 and 2013, but with Prince Fielder now gone, they won’t have as much thump in the middle of their order. So Martinez needs to clean up in the opportunities he’ll have while hitting behind Cabrera and the other guys at the top of the Detroit lineup. And above all else, the Tigers need Martinez to stay healthy.
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty ImagesThe Astros are going to lose, but players like George Springer could keep fans hopeful for the future.Houston Astros: George Springer. Nothing is going to prevent the Astros from at least flirting with 100 losses again, because they’re still in the process of collecting and developing talent while inhabiting one of baseball’s most competitive divisions. But Springer’s progress will be noteworthy through the year. If the Astros follow the Rays’ model of slow-playing their prospects through the minor leagues, Springer will spend at least half the season in Triple-A, where he excelled last season, with an OPS over 1.000. The Astros’ fans need hope, and Springer will represent that this year.
Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer. Again. He had a solid second half last season, and if he does that again, the Royals’ lineup should be deep and dangerous. If he takes a step back, well, that would be crushing.
Los Angeles Angels: Hector Santiago. Jered Weaver returned from the disabled list to pitch effectively last season, and C.J. Wilson has actually been underrated in his first two seasons with the Angels. Mike Scioscia needs a consistent third wheel in this rotation, for the sake of the bullpen, as well as the rotation, and the newly acquired Santiago could be that. Sure, a full healthy season from Albert Pujols is needed, but the lineup should be good either way. The rotation performance, on the other hand, will be pivotal.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Yasiel Puig. The Dodgers have exhausted a lot of internal energy trying to help Puig in all the ways he needs help because he can be that good. The Dodgers have great pitching, but their lineup has its holes -- this is a team that finished 17th in the majors in runs last season -- and another dynamic showing from Puig really is imperative.
Miami Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton. It’s a big year for Stanton and the Marlins. They have to have him in the lineup, a centerpiece surrounded by other complementary pieces, and he needs to stay healthy, to erase the growing industry concerns about his sturdiness. If the Marlins aren’t going to be able to sign Stanton to a long-term deal, they need him to establish his highest possible trade value.
Milwaukee Brewers: Khris Davis. He had an OPS of .949 in 56 games last season, and the Brewers think enough of him to plan for the possible shift of Ryan Braun from left field to right field to make room. There may be questions about whether he will ever have a natural position, but he is a really intriguing offensive player.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton. The Twins have upgraded their rotation, spending a lot of money on free agents, and should win more games. But in the big picture, whatever happens in the big leagues won’t be as important to the Twins as the continued development of this young outfielder, one of the most dynamic talents in the sport.
New York Mets: Zack Wheeler. It’s another year of development for the Mets, as they continue to slowly construct a rotation worthy of contending for the division, and Wheeler’s progress this season will be the most important development for this team.
New York Yankees: CC Sabathia. He is sliding downward on the back side of his career; this is inarguable, given the decline in his fastball velocity and the rise in his ERA. But when the Yankees worked out an extension with Sabathia, it was a calculated bet that Sabathia could continue to be a productive pitcher even in his final years, and given the composition of the rest of the rotation, the Yankees need the veteran left-hander to at least be competitive. The fact that he had a 5.20 ERA last season tells you there were times when he was not.
Oakland Athletics: Sonny Gray. Welcome to the world of the Oakland Athletics (and Rays and a handful of other teams), in which young players must not only contribute but also lead. Gray showed his great stuff in the postseason last year, and within the 2014 model of the Athletics, he really needs to be at least a No. 3-type starter. He could be better than that.
Philadelphia Phillies: Ryan Howard. Rewind; play back. They’ve paid him to be a huge part of this offense, and because of injuries and struggles, this hasn’t really happened the past couple of seasons. Howard is owed $85 million over the next three seasons, including a $10 million buyout option for 2017, so he’s not going anywhere.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates don’t have a deep lineup around Andrew McCutchen, but Alvarez is a lightning-strike type of player with his power. He hit 30 homers in 2012 and 36 in 2013, and this may be the year in which he hits 40-45.
St. Louis Cardinals: Michael Wacha. The Cardinals are loaded with great young pitching, and Wacha was overpowering in the innings he threw late last season, into the playoffs and World Series. It might be a lot to ask him for more of the same over the course of his first full season in the big leagues, but the Cardinals do need him to have at least a good year, behind ace Adam Wainwright.
San Diego Padres: Chase Headley. At this point, rival execs regard it as a foregone conclusion that Headley is going to be traded by July 31, so it’ll be important for the Padres that he has a strong first half. If that happens, and the San Diego rotation improves, as expected, the Padres could be better than predicted.
San Francisco Giants: Tim Hudson. The Giants took a big step back in 2013, out of contention, because of the regression of their rotation, and they bet a good two-year contract that Hudson can help this group of starters recover. They cannot afford for him to get hit with injuries because they simply don’t have a lot of depth in their rotation.
Seattle Mariners: Robinson Cano. Naturally. Remember how Barry Bonds used to carry the Giants’ lineup? Well, this is sort of the situation that Cano faces this year, and the question will be whether he’ll remain patient and wait for his opportunities or if he’ll get frustrated and expand his strike zone. There is still time, of course, for the Mariners to make other moves to take pressure off Cano, such as the addition of Nelson Cruz.
Tampa Bay Rays: Alex Cobb. Whether they retain David Price or not, the Rays need Cobb to follow up on his strong 2013 showing. If Cobb pitches at an All-Star level and Price remains, this could be an incredibly dangerous Tampa Bay team.
Texas Rangers: Prince Fielder. They bet big on him, and they’re counting on him at a time when some rival evaluators have some doubts about whether he can still be a top-notch offensive player.
Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow. They haven’t added rotation help yet, so the return of Morrow sets up to be an enormous factor for Toronto's starting pitching.
Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper. He looked ridiculously good in spring training, but injuries limited him to just 118 games. The Nationals have to have him on the field, and if that happens, he inevitably will become one of the game’s best players. He’s 21 years old and he’s already had seasons in which he posted an OPS+ of 118 and 133.
Let’s put it another way: If Harper plays 150 games, it’s hard to imagine the Nationals failing to make the playoffs.
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Play like a Pirate.
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