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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: Brad H

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ORIGINAL: thebigo

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ORIGINAL: ronhextall

The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps.

So were months away from having enough vaccines for everyone. The youngest generally will be the last to get it, yet young adults are probably most affected by the shutdowns financially.

The vaccine is designed to help people live, not to help earn a paycheck.

In the real world, you need a paycheck to live.

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ORIGINAL: David F.

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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: Brad H

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ORIGINAL: thebigo

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ORIGINAL: ronhextall

The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps.

So were months away from having enough vaccines for everyone. The youngest generally will be the last to get it, yet young adults are probably most affected by the shutdowns financially.

The vaccine is designed to help people live, not to help earn a paycheck.

In the real world, you need a paycheck to live.

Not necessarily.

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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: David F.

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ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

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ORIGINAL: Brad H

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ORIGINAL: thebigo

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ORIGINAL: ronhextall

The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps.

So were months away from having enough vaccines for everyone. The youngest generally will be the last to get it, yet young adults are probably most affected by the shutdowns financially.

The vaccine is designed to help people live, not to help earn a paycheck.

In the real world, you need a paycheck to live.

Not necessarily.

It helps. Homeless life span lower than people with a roof over their head.

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ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

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ORIGINAL: unome

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ORIGINAL: ronhextall

The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps.

Why?

Until we have more vaccines than willing recipients, just vaccinate the willing. We are still a few months away, if we are lucky, from vaccinating all the people that really need the vaccine because they have conditions or age that makes them more vulnerable or jobs that require public interaction.

I have no problem getting the vaccine, but I probably won't. Why?

Because once you vaccinate everyone older than me (50 and up), people with health conditions, people that work in the public (I would much rather have a 24 year old teacher get the vaccine before me) and people that are younger than me, but scared silly about the virus (like my poor, sweet sister-in-law), there should be enough herd immunity to make getting the vaccine fairly useless at that point.

If they start looking around for people to get the vaccine because everyone else that wanted it got it, and there is still COVID cases in any significant level in population, I will get the vaccine, but I will wait until then.

I do not plan on going down with the ship, but I do want to make sure everyone that wants a seat on the lifeboat has one first.

Waiting could, in this case, be a fatal decision. I'd say it's up to you, but honestly, your delay in getting the vaccination could end up killing OTHER people as you spread the virus around.

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ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Shouldn't the people currently infected with the virus be vaccinated first?

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ORIGINAL: ronhextall

Vaccinating the homeless is going to be a challenge. My only thought is vaccinate at the shelters for a period of time. Perhaps a cash payment to give them incentive.

My only thought is this...once the vaccine is offered to everybody it’s time to open everything up. I don’t care if you get the vaccine or not. An “offer” in my mid is the same as getting it.

I also think it’s fair if business and schools require the vaccine.

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ORIGINAL: bstinger

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ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Shouldn't the people currently infected with the virus be vaccinated first?

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ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

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ORIGINAL: bstinger

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ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Shouldn't the people currently infected with the virus be vaccinated first?

Hey, now...

Lots of good people on both sides, here..

Snowflakes have to land somewhere, and when they dump en-mass.. you get a blizzard and a newsworthy ignoring of global warming..

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ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

NFL didn't miss a game this year. That is impressive.

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ORIGINAL: unome

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ORIGINAL: unome

Hope everyone is well.

Been busier than heck myself, but I wanted to stop by and tell people to stay safe now especially because the pandemic is almost over.

If the country hits the 100 million immunization goal by February, the COVID numbers will drop like a rock.

With all the base immunity in the population, plus added immunity for 30% of the population getting vaccines, will blow us past the beginning stages of herd immunity (North Dakota looks like it already made it there on it's own) and community spread will become less and less of a problem.

This crap is almost over!

Happy Holidays!!

It looks like the vaccine rollout is slower than hoped for, but it always takes some time to rollout totally new supply chains from scratch, so that was to be expected. I expect it to keep ramping up over the next month and then start really delivering the vaccine numbers.

The COVID numbers are dreadful right now and they will be awful in January. We may start seeing some change in the numbers in February, but those numbers will still be high, especially in deaths because all these high December and January infection rates will still be feeding the death rate.

But I am still really hopeful for major changes in the numbers from March to May where I think there will be massive improvement.

Why so positive when everyone else is so glum?

I am so excited about the vaccine because it is not hard to tell who to immunize if you want to save lives. Roughly 40% of the COVID deaths are from LTC residents. This population is less than 1% of the overall population.

So you should see huge death rate decreases as this population is fully immunized. And this should be done by mid-January.

BTW, LTC residents should have been first to get vaccines, but they did medical workers first, which is frankly pretty lame. Medical workers are often heroes and deserve to be high on the priority list, but they are not dying in droves like LTC residents are, and they have medical grade masks. But I digress.

With the group accounting for 40% of deaths being vaccinated by mid-January, you should see death rates start dropping by March and keep dropping as the elderly get vaccinated.

Overall COVID cases will start coming down as well, but not at the same rate as the death rate, which is interesting because normally the case rate falls first.

The COVID case rate should just keep going down and should look really good by May if the vaccine distribution is good by the end of February. And the numbers will just keep dropping as every state reaches the first stage of herd immunity hopefully in February and we could reach what is generally considered to be true herd immunity at the 130-150 million vaccination level.

Hopefully, at that point, COVID numbers will be so much lower as to be more manageable and contract tracing will be much more viable.

So, it is darkest before the dawn. January will completely suck and February will not be all that great either. But, the spring is coming. I think we will all like the spring.

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ORIGINAL: unome

That's funny.

My positive post about how the pandemic is in beginning stages of winding down got a one star rating from someone! Must be someone that just purchased a container load of masks for sale to the public.

From the same link as above, Fauci said: "For that reason, health officials say the virus is not likely to be under control in the U.S. until the “back half of 2021”—as Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said—when most of the population, around 75%, is vaccinated, generating an “umbrella of herd immunity.”

It will happen sooner, although it does depend on how we define the terms 'under control'.

Things will just keep getting better and better no matter how many 1 star votes I get!

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ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

Hope everyone is well.

Been busier than heck myself, but I wanted to stop by and tell people to stay safe now especially because the pandemic is almost over.

If the country hits the 100 million immunization goal by February, the COVID numbers will drop like a rock.

With all the base immunity in the population, plus added immunity for 30% of the population getting vaccines, will blow us past the beginning stages of herd immunity (North Dakota looks like it already made it there on it's own) and community spread will become less and less of a problem.

This crap is almost over!

Happy Holidays!!

It looks like the vaccine rollout is slower than hoped for, but it always takes some time to rollout totally new supply chains from scratch, so that was to be expected. I expect it to keep ramping up over the next month and then start really delivering the vaccine numbers.

The COVID numbers are dreadful right now and they will be awful in January. We may start seeing some change in the numbers in February, but those numbers will still be high, especially in deaths because all these high December and January infection rates will still be feeding the death rate.

But I am still really hopeful for major changes in the numbers from March to May where I think there will be massive improvement.

Why so positive when everyone else is so glum?

I am so excited about the vaccine because it is not hard to tell who to immunize if you want to save lives. Roughly 40% of the COVID deaths are from LTC residents. This population is less than 1% of the overall population.

So you should see huge death rate decreases as this population is fully immunized. And this should be done by mid-January.

BTW, LTC residents should have been first to get vaccines, but they did medical workers first, which is frankly pretty lame. Medical workers are often heroes and deserve to be high on the priority list, but they are not dying in droves like LTC residents are, and they have medical grade masks. But I digress.

With the group accounting for 40% of deaths being vaccinated by mid-January, you should see death rates start dropping by March and keep dropping as the elderly get vaccinated.

Overall COVID cases will start coming down as well, but not at the same rate as the death rate, which is interesting because normally the case rate falls first.

The COVID case rate should just keep going down and should look really good by May if the vaccine distribution is good by the end of February. And the numbers will just keep dropping as every state reaches the first stage of herd immunity hopefully in February and we could reach what is generally considered to be true herd immunity at the 130-150 million vaccination level.

Hopefully, at that point, COVID numbers will be so much lower as to be more manageable and contract tracing will be much more viable.

So, it is darkest before the dawn. January will completely suck and February will not be all that great either. But, the spring is coming. I think we will all like the spring.

I think I came pretty close to nailing it.

You could not find anyone writing anything positive about the pandemic in late December. People like Bill Gates said we were in for a really bad next four to six months in December. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/12/13/gates-says-next-4-6-months-could-be-worst-of-pandemic-as-vaccine-shipments-roll-out/?sh=30b90d9c44c3

We actually seemed to start hitting the start of herd immunity in mid-January in many states so my rosy prognostication was not even rosy enough.

I said death rates would start dropping big in March, but they will start dropping in February instead and the drop will just keep going.

January completely sucked, but things are already much better in every state. And, like I said: I think we will all like the spring.

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ORIGINAL: unome

That's funny.

My positive post about how the pandemic is in beginning stages of winding down got a one star rating from someone! Must be someone that just purchased a container load of masks for sale to the public.

From the same link as above, Fauci said: "For that reason, health officials say the virus is not likely to be under control in the U.S. until the “back half of 2021”—as Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said—when most of the population, around 75%, is vaccinated, generating an “umbrella of herd immunity.”

It will happen sooner, although it does depend on how we define the terms 'under control'.

Things will just keep getting better and better no matter how many 1 star votes I get!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: unome

That's funny.

My positive post about how the pandemic is in beginning stages of winding down got a one star rating from someone! Must be someone that just purchased a container load of masks for sale to the public.

From the same link as above, Fauci said: "For that reason, health officials say the virus is not likely to be under control in the U.S. until the “back half of 2021”—as Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said—when most of the population, around 75%, is vaccinated, generating an “umbrella of herd immunity.”

It will happen sooner, although it does depend on how we define the terms 'under control'.

Things will just keep getting better and better no matter how many 1 star votes I get!

I also said the pandemic would start getting better in January. January 20th, to be specific.

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ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Good Post Unome....good work.

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ORIGINAL: unome

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ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Good Post Unome....good work.

Thanks. I did not realize that I would be in for the level of attack for a positive post, but what can you do? Once people have closed minds, how will they every open them?

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ORIGINAL: unome

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ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Good Post Unome....good work.

Thanks. I did not realize that I would be in for the level of attack for a positive post, but what can you do? Once people have closed minds, how will they every open them?

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ORIGINAL: TJSweens

That's an exceedingly optimistic forecast on spread. The fact that the infection rate has declined from the January peak of + 300,000 a day does not point to heard immunity. The rate is still 3 to 4 times higher than when pandemic had its first peak in April and twice as high as the summer peak in June. On top of that new variants are springing up, one of which reduces the effectiveness of AstraZeneca vaccine. Recovering from Covid-19 has not been proven to effectively provide immunity. Heard immunity won't occur until upwards of 70% of the population is vaccinated. There is a real race going on to enough get people vaccinated before a strain resistant to current vaccines develops.

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ORIGINAL: TJSweens

That people are skeptical of your Pollyanna forecast, does not mean minds are closed. It just means people are skeptical based on science.