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RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/22/2021 8:37:41 PM

JT2

Posts: 13742
Joined: 2/15/2011
From: United States
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

When your fastest, most competent route runners, with moves and hands, either doesn’t get the time or targets their talent deserves, because the coaching staff wants to run the human enema on second and anything, or third and short.. you know your short time to make an impact is being wasted.

I was not happy to see Diggs go.. he was a bit af a prima Donna, but his talent and ability to flip a game was off the charts..
I don’t blame him.

Look where he is now.. playing for a conference championship, while the KA offense, looks to try and fix a shabby defense and an epically, perennially bad offensive pass blocking scheme.

We run the ball, because it’s all we do really well..

You’d think playaction would be excellent, but if the line can’t sell and block a play action play, you might as well run strictly shotgun formation.
One dimensional is one dimensional, no matter what color construction paper you cover it with.

Cousins is near the bottom of the list in the stat category 'difference in completion percentage from not play action to play action.' He averages about 7 percentage points less in completion percentage in play action. That's not good.

Not surprising. He's skittish when he can see the pressure. Having him turn his back to it is not doing him any favors. He has serious limitations that are not accurately portrayed with the cherry picked stats often spit out.

Having two quality pass catchers doesn't help either.

Post #: 251

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/22/2021 9:17:48 PM

David F.

Posts: 10864
Joined: 12/31/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

When your fastest, most competent route runners, with moves and hands, either doesn’t get the time or targets their talent deserves, because the coaching staff wants to run the human enema on second and anything, or third and short.. you know your short time to make an impact is being wasted.

I was not happy to see Diggs go.. he was a bit af a prima Donna, but his talent and ability to flip a game was off the charts..
I don’t blame him.

Look where he is now.. playing for a conference championship, while the KA offense, looks to try and fix a shabby defense and an epically, perennially bad offensive pass blocking scheme.

We run the ball, because it’s all we do really well..

You’d think playaction would be excellent, but if the line can’t sell and block a play action play, you might as well run strictly shotgun formation.
One dimensional is one dimensional, no matter what color construction paper you cover it with.

Cousins is near the bottom of the list in the stat category 'difference in completion percentage from not play action to play action.' He averages about 7 percentage points less in completion percentage in play action. That's not good.

I'm surprised by this. Is this an outlier stat? I thought he thrived on play action before.

Here's an article from about a year ago.

https://www.nfl.com/news/cousins-excelling-at-play-action-has-opened-offense-0ap3000001068942

Well see this is where it gets really 'tricky' for lack of a better word. Play action is still effective - he threw 18 TDs vs 4 INTs out of play action vs 17 TDs and 9 INTs when not in play action. So both things are true, play action is effective AND he's not maximizing the impact.

_____________________________

I wouldn't give ANY qb $30-50+ mil unless that QB had won me a Super Bowl. Did you win a Super Bowl on your rookie deal? Yes? Great! Here's your hugenormous contract. F it let's just run victory laps and love life. No? Good luck. Next!

Post #: 252

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/22/2021 9:40:03 PM

Pager

Posts: 10500
Joined: 7/19/2007
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What are Cousins' career stats for play action? I've read stats that since becoming a starter he is one of the league leaders.

How many times was play action called when we were ahead (or tied) in 2020 and how does that compare to 2019? How many minutes or were we ahead (or tied) in 2020 vs 2019? Wasn't Cousins #2 in the NFL in play action behind Russel Wilson in 2019?

Play action is FAR more effective when you are leading (or tied) and defense is expecting a run. In an obvious pass situation all it does is give defenders more time to rush the passer. When you are behind, almost all plays are obv pass situations.

So the other choices are shotgun or straight drop back. Which allows DTs to overwhelm our guards as evidenced by our pass blocking win rate.

But it's all on Cousins

< Message edited by Pager -- 1/22/2021 9:54:56 PM >

_____________________________

Left picking up the pieces.

Post #: 253

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/22/2021 9:53:50 PM

David F.

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Joined: 12/31/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

What are Cousins' career stats for play action? I've read stats that since becoming a starter he is one of the league leaders.

How many times was play action called when we were ahead in 2020? How many minutes were we ahead in 2020 vs 2019?

Play action is FAR more effective when you are leading (or tied) and defense is expecting a run. In an obvious pass situation all it does is give defenders more time to rush the passer. When you are behind, almost all plays are obv pass situations.

So the other choices are shotgun or straight drop back. Which allows DTs to overwhelm our guards as evidenced by our pass blocking win rate.

But it's all on Cousins

I'm at work right now but am done in 10 minutes and then a 40 minute drive home. I'll try to look those up tonight or tomorrow.

I think you're going to be surprised at the statistics regarding average time in the pocket, average time to throw attempt, and average time to sack.

_____________________________

I wouldn't give ANY qb $30-50+ mil unless that QB had won me a Super Bowl. Did you win a Super Bowl on your rookie deal? Yes? Great! Here's your hugenormous contract. F it let's just run victory laps and love life. No? Good luck. Next!

Post #: 254

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/22/2021 9:58:45 PM

Pager

Posts: 10500
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

What are Cousins' career stats for play action? I've read stats that since becoming a starter he is one of the league leaders.

How many times was play action called when we were ahead in 2020? How many minutes were we ahead in 2020 vs 2019?

Play action is FAR more effective when you are leading (or tied) and defense is expecting a run. In an obvious pass situation all it does is give defenders more time to rush the passer. When you are behind, almost all plays are obv pass situations.

So the other choices are shotgun or straight drop back. Which allows DTs to overwhelm our guards as evidenced by our pass blocking win rate.

But it's all on Cousins

I'm at work right now but am done in 10 minutes and then a 40 minute drive home. I'll try to look those up tonight or tomorrow.

I think you're going to be surprised at the statistics regarding average time in the pocket, average time to throw attempt, and average time to sack.

Krauser did those stats for 2018 and 2019 over at Daily Norsman. And was able to break out rollouts and playaction. Cousins was league average in straight drop back or shotgun in both 2018 and 2019 at 2.45 (roughly 2019 was slightly higher at 2.5 which compared to something like 2.9 in all passing situations in 2019). Especially in 2019 we were number #2 (if I remember right) in % of rollouts and playaction.

Haven't seen 2020 stats. But 2018 and 2019 give us a pretty good sample size.

Which didn't change from his time in Washington. Cousins, like most QBs, needs a good oline to be effective.

It would be very interesting if someone could show average depth of routes run for each of those years. Cousin's YPA is in the upper ends of the league (#7 in 2019 and #2 in 2020). My point here is that, again, not all of it is based on the QB play. It depends on scheme, play call. And is often balanced by YPA and explosive plays. Weren't we near the top of the league in explosive pass plays last year and this? Those usually take time to develop.

< Message edited by Pager -- 1/22/2021 10:20:14 PM >

_____________________________

Left picking up the pieces.

Post #: 255

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/22/2021 10:38:21 PM 1 votes

JT2

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From: United States
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As Viking fans we have become expert excuse makers. Often times the officials cheated us. Sometimes the league was behind it.

Our QB is "running for his life", what do you expect? Hey, many people said that about Ponder. Remember?

Our OLine is bad. You're not tired of that? Yet Spielman and Zimmer are great?

Maybe if Peterson leads the league in rushing, that makes me feel better.
Maybe if I can make enough excuses, Cousins is great, even though, deep down inside he doesn't pass your eye test.

Maybe we should be patient with Ponder, Williamson, Treadwell.

I don't think coaches or GM's should ever feel secure in their job, unless you won a Super Bowl.
We hand out job security like acid at a Grateful Dead concert.

We overvalue marginal players.

We waste early draft picks on guys like Mattison and Smith, while perpetually stuck with a horrible OLine.

Hey, remember when we drafted two pick Toby (Gerhart)? There were people in here declaring how great he was, but he wasn't.
Interestingly, his first two years with the Vikings were better than Mattison's first two.

People think we're set at TE with Smith and Conklin? Are you kidding me? The bar is so low that any warm body looks good I guess.
Off the top of my head, I can think of ten teams that have three TE's better than our best.

Spielman has done a horrible job, his entire career as a GM. Give him an extension.

Who is to blame for our failures? The refs? The NFL? The Rules Committee? Conspiratorial scheduling?

We have been fortunate to land some exceptional players. Cook masks our weaknesses. Can't do it with one cat.

Somebody on the team or in the organization should be held accountable, don't you think?

Also, wouldn't it be groovy if we could recognize, draft, develop and play a QB?
Can you think of a team that has been worse at this process than us?

< Message edited by JT2 -- 1/22/2021 11:00:31 PM >

Post #: 256

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 12:08:33 AM

marty

Posts: 13047
Joined: 12/28/2007
Status: online

Besides Cook, you can add Jefferson masking weaknesses, he is a real talent.

And Griffen and Hunter made a weak 2ndary look marginal.

< Message edited by marty -- 1/23/2021 12:18:49 AM >

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!

Post #: 257

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 12:15:23 AM

marty

Posts: 13047
Joined: 12/28/2007
Status: online

I don't think it's a conspiracy, but the officials have at times been a part of why the Vikings lost. I don't think it's cheating, it's just an unexplained biased against.

And the officials also have a tendency to give Green Bay an unexplained bias in their favor. They usually benefit from calls that seem obviously wrong, and it's even evident in their losses.

How many times in the last 5, 10 or more seasons, do you recall a Vikings' loss where it seemed liked the Vikings benefitted from some calls that were obviously wrong, but it kept the Vikings in it for awhile ?

I live in Wisconsin, and I can't tell you the number of games in that same time period, where Packer fans will admit to getting weird, favorable calls, even when they lost games, that kept them in it.

< Message edited by marty -- 1/23/2021 12:21:06 AM >

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!

Post #: 258

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 7:05:20 AM

Bruce Johnson

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Joined: 8/27/2007
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Ifeadi Odenigbo was really double-teamed at neadly the same rate as Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa because our other defensive linemen were that bad.

Matt Fries on Twitter

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?

Post #: 259

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 8:13:37 AM

Brad H

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Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
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I'm hoping for something very simple ... a reliable kicker. Is that too much to ask for?

I don't need the longest driver on tour, just someone that puts it in the fairway. Matt Kutcher, Webb Simpson, Nick Faldo, Jim Furyk, Mike Weir. I can live with that.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 1/23/2021 8:20:03 AM >

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 260

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 8:16:59 AM

Pager

Posts: 10500
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Ifeadi Odenigbo was really double-teamed at neadly the same rate as Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa because our other defensive linemen were that bad.

Matt Fries on Twitter

That's a crazy stat. There's a lot of talk at purple pain forums about DE being the biggest need.

_____________________________

Left picking up the pieces.

Post #: 261

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 8:19:28 AM

Pager

Posts: 10500
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

As Viking fans we have become expert excuse makers. Often times the officials cheated us. Sometimes the league was behind it.

Our QB is "running for his life", what do you expect? Hey, many people said that about Ponder. Remember?

Our OLine is bad. You're not tired of that? Yet Spielman and Zimmer are great?

Maybe if Peterson leads the league in rushing, that makes me feel better.
Maybe if I can make enough excuses, Cousins is great, even though, deep down inside he doesn't pass your eye test.

Maybe we should be patient with Ponder, Williamson, Treadwell.

I don't think coaches or GM's should ever feel secure in their job, unless you won a Super Bowl.
We hand out job security like acid at a Grateful Dead concert.

We overvalue marginal players.

We waste early draft picks on guys like Mattison and Smith, while perpetually stuck with a horrible OLine.

Hey, remember when we drafted two pick Toby (Gerhart)? There were people in here declaring how great he was, but he wasn't.
Interestingly, his first two years with the Vikings were better than Mattison's first two.

People think we're set at TE with Smith and Conklin? Are you kidding me? The bar is so low that any warm body looks good I guess.
Off the top of my head, I can think of ten teams that have three TE's better than our best.

Spielman has done a horrible job, his entire career as a GM. Give him an extension.

Who is to blame for our failures? The refs? The NFL? The Rules Committee? Conspiratorial scheduling?

We have been fortunate to land some exceptional players. Cook masks our weaknesses. Can't do it with one cat.

Somebody on the team or in the organization should be held accountable, don't you think?

Also, wouldn't it be groovy if we could recognize, draft, develop and play a QB?
Can you think of a team that has been worse at this process than us?

Great post, especially the bolded part. Barr and Rudy come to mind as recent examples.

_____________________________

Left picking up the pieces.

Post #: 262

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 8:22:34 AM

Bruce Johnson

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Joined: 8/27/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Ifeadi Odenigbo was really double-teamed at neadly the same rate as Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa because our other defensive linemen were that bad.

Matt Fries on Twitter

That's a crazy stat. There's a lot of talk at purple pain forums about DE being the biggest need.

I'm one of them based on the value of a great pass rusher and the nice options that will be available for the Vikings. 3tech and guard are right up there too, though. I don't know which position can be more easily addressed in the third round. Maybe guard a 3 tech.

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?

Post #: 263

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 8:25:42 AM

Brad H

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I'm sick of being the guy that trades back, hoping that these guys prove to be a diamond in the rough. Just once I'd like to see us move up and grab a star.

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 264

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 10:26:12 AM

Bruce Johnson

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Joined: 8/27/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

I'm sick of being the guy that trades back, hoping that these guys prove to be a diamond in the rough. Just once I'd like to see us move up and grab a star.

Which star do you have your eye on?

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?

Post #: 265

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 10:53:56 AM

ratoppenheimer

Posts: 9554
Joined: 12/9/2007
From: cascais, portugal...still in exile
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Ifeadi Odenigbo was really double-teamed at neadly the same rate as Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa because our other defensive linemen were that bad.

Matt Fries on Twitter

the difference is that ifeadi doesn't get the sacks like those two...he's a free agent in a couple of weeks, too....

_____________________________

the journey...is paradise.

Post #: 266

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 10:56:10 AM

Tom Sykes

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Joined: 7/27/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

I'm sick of being the guy that trades back, hoping that these guys prove to be a diamond in the rough. Just once I'd like to see us move up and grab a star.

Not sure trading up or down trumps just staying in your slot. You still have to luck out / guess right, one way or the other.

I wish there was a grading system more accurate than the useless post-draft grade school report card system that currently toys with fans.

I've seen a couple that try from a few years out but none that seem more accurate than the one-eyed PFF grading system.

Post #: 267

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 11:02:19 AM

Bruce Johnson

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Joined: 8/27/2007
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Jefferson and Ochocinco finally met up in Miami. It looks like Jefferson had the upper hand. (Which is understandable since Johnson is out of the league and not a cornerback.)

https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/news/justin-jefferson-chad-johnson-1-on-1-miami-talk-smack-twitter

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. It was a mismatch.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1352762916093763584

< Message edited by Bruce Johnson -- 1/23/2021 11:04:25 AM >

_____________________________

We live in a world where we depend upon each other. In other words, we need each other just as God needs us and we need Him. How wonderful it would be if we could unite and live in harmony. Wouldn't it be better that way?

Post #: 268

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 11:33:34 AM

Tom Sykes

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Sorry for not posting this in the draft thread, but adding on to Brad's remark a few posts up (about never trading up):

2014 through 2020
(this is far from gospel but sorta maybe close)

Trade-ups: 15
Trade backs: 25

Draft moves (rds 1-2)

Trade-ups (rds 1-2): Bridgewater, Cook
Trade backs (rds 1-2): Gladney

Other 'notable' draft moves (after rd 2)

Trade-ups: TE Morgan, OL Elflein, DL Odenigbo, DL Holmes, TE Conklin, L Carlson, OL Samia
Trade-backs: DL Hunter, WR Diggs, RB Mattison, OL Udoh

< Message edited by Tom Sykes -- 1/23/2021 11:35:33 AM >

Post #: 269

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 12:49:42 PM

bohumm

Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

Sorry for not posting this in the draft thread, but adding on to Brad's remark a few posts up (about never trading up):

2014 through 2020
(this is far from gospel but sorta maybe close)

Trade-ups: 15
Trade backs: 25

Draft moves (rds 1-2)

Trade-ups (rds 1-2): Bridgewater, Cook
Trade backs (rds 1-2): Gladney

Other 'notable' draft moves (after rd 2)

Trade-ups: TE Morgan, OL Elflein, DL Odenigbo, DL Holmes, TE Conklin, L Carlson, OL Samia
Trade-backs: DL Hunter, WR Diggs, RB Mattison, OL Udoh

This is complicated by the fact that for most of the transactions above, other moves have been made previously (ie, move back, move back, move up and get this guy). So some of those moves up are really moves back. I have to say I don't have a definitive take on the fruits of all the moving around, in part because it's so chaotic that it's almost impossible to unwind and analyze. I do know that there have been some epic fails in the first round with Spielman as well as some positions that are chronically under-drafted/whiffed on.

Post #: 270

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 1:39:38 PM

thebigo

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Only on these boards is a team that takes an UDFA turns him into a top 5 NFL WR labeled as having "backed into" the player.

Also note that Stephon Diggs was a 5th round pick that we turned into a top 5 NFL WR, got 1st round type production from him for 5 years, then in effect, turned that used 5th rounder into a 1st rounder for a brand new 1st round toy in Justin Jefferson.

But hey, nobody backs into players like the Vikings.

Post #: 271

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 3:23:31 PM

thebigo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson

Jefferson and Ochocinco finally met up in Miami. It looks like Jefferson had the upper hand. (Which is understandable since Johnson is out of the league and not a cornerback.)

https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/news/justin-jefferson-chad-johnson-1-on-1-miami-talk-smack-twitter

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. It was a mismatch.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1352762916093763584

Let's be sure to get Diggs in his ear.

Post #: 272

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 3:46:57 PM

David F.

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

Only on these boards is a team that takes an UDFA turns him into a top 5 NFL WR labeled as having "backed into" the player.

Also note that Stephon Diggs was a 5th round pick that we turned into a top 5 NFL WR, got 1st round type production from him for 5 years, then in effect, turned that used 5th rounder into a 1st rounder for a brand new 1st round toy in Justin Jefferson.

But hey, nobody backs into players like the Vikings.

They released him once.

_____________________________

I wouldn't give ANY qb $30-50+ mil unless that QB had won me a Super Bowl. Did you win a Super Bowl on your rookie deal? Yes? Great! Here's your hugenormous contract. F it let's just run victory laps and love life. No? Good luck. Next!

Post #: 273

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 4:46:58 PM

thebigo

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Joined: 7/14/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

Only on these boards is a team that takes an UDFA turns him into a top 5 NFL WR labeled as having "backed into" the player.

Also note that Stephon Diggs was a 5th round pick that we turned into a top 5 NFL WR, got 1st round type production from him for 5 years, then in effect, turned that used 5th rounder into a 1st rounder for a brand new 1st round toy in Justin Jefferson.

But hey, nobody backs into players like the Vikings.

They released him once.

And 31 other teams did not pick him up.

Post #: 274

RE: General Vikes Talk - 1/23/2021 5:04:54 PM

David F.

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Joined: 12/31/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

quote:

ORIGINAL: David F.

quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

Only on these boards is a team that takes an UDFA turns him into a top 5 NFL WR labeled as having "backed into" the player.

Also note that Stephon Diggs was a 5th round pick that we turned into a top 5 NFL WR, got 1st round type production from him for 5 years, then in effect, turned that used 5th rounder into a 1st rounder for a brand new 1st round toy in Justin Jefferson.

But hey, nobody backs into players like the Vikings.

They released him once.

And 31 other teams did not pick him up.

31 other teams didn't have him on the roster, in the facility, watching him play football every day. The Vikings didn't know what they had in Thielen and they didn't know what they had in Diggs.

_____________________________

I wouldn't give ANY qb $30-50+ mil unless that QB had won me a Super Bowl. Did you win a Super Bowl on your rookie deal? Yes? Great! Here's your hugenormous contract. F it let's just run victory laps and love life. No? Good luck. Next!

Post #: 275