quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ush

Haven’t posted in a while as life just seems to keep getting in the way. I enjoy catching up each week and reading the varying opinions so I’ll throw in mine:

1. I really dislike Cousins and think a lot of the team feels the same way. That being said, I really don’t place any blame on him for the 0-2 start. He is what he is....a very accurate passer with a strong arm who typically needs time to throw. You can tell he has worked to try and be more mobile and even had a couple of big runs the first two games. He is just limited physically. This offense hasn’t been the problem since the middle of last season IMO. They have been productive despite a bad oline and have put us in a position to win the first 2 games this year.

2. I wanted Zimmer to try and get more yards before the potential game winning kick. It might be just my “Vikings mentality” but I fully expected him to miss that kick.

3, I am very interested in how they play this week. Usually this kind of a play (missed kick) kills a team but I like what I’m hearing from Joseph and Theilen and how they are reacting to this. They seem to be rallying together. I think the team feels like they should be in a better position and are going to go and try to prove something this week. I could be totally wrong but just a gut feeling I get. If they get blown out I’ll say Zim has lost the team. I just don’t see it happening.

4. I feel like, for the first time in a long time, we have a punter who can boom one from our own endzone when we need it.

5. Welcome back Danielle. Pay the man!

6. Very disappointed in the run defense so far. I thought we’d be tougher up the gut with Pierce and Tomlinson but I see them getting pushed back a lot. Maybe it’s a matter of rarely playing with 3 LB’s but we seem to give up at least 5 yds every play on the ground.

7. Dantzler needs to just play. Breeland has shown nothing in the preseason and regular season so far. We had some bad luck with Gladney and injuries with Mike Hughes that have really set back our secondary. I don’t know that we have enough on the roster to fix this so our so-called DB guru needs to somehow work some magic with this group. The pass rush can offset some of that and I think we’ll see more pressure with the home field advantage but I fully expect our pass defense to struggle on the road especially.

8. Pleasant surprises so far: KJ Osborn, Dantzler when he played this week, passing offense continuing it’s success without Irv, creativity on offense and punting.

9. Disappointments so far: Tomlinson, Harrison (especially based on contract extension), defense overall, health issues with Barr after missing most of last season, Darrisaw injury as well and losing 2 games we easily should have won.

Good summary … I agree with most …

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

That is just flat out ugly. Definetly a Zimmer trademark.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

That is just flat out ugly. Definetly a Zimmer trademark.

The last two minutes of the first half was one continuous coaching cluster f***.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

Agree with most, except I do not fault them for settling for a 37 yard attempt and not trying to get closer. Under 40 is good enough for me. Too many bad things can happen running more plays.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens
The last two minutes of the first half was one continuous coaching cluster f***.

SO ... the new data out that puts Kirk at the bottom of the "last 4 minutes of the halves success rate" can be argued to be on the coaches more than our QB?

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens
The last two minutes of the first half was one continuous coaching cluster f***.

SO ... the new data out that puts Kirk at the bottom of the "last 4 minutes of the halves success rate" can be argued to be on the coaches more than our QB?

There is lot more to success rate in the last 2 minutes than the QB. If you want to put all the blame on the QB, you have to assume that all other components are equal. You have to assume everybody in the NFL has comparable coaching, line play, skill position players, etc. You also have to assume all last 2 minute scenarios are equal, which they clearly are not. Getting the ball with a full two minutes, and a 3 point deficit is very different than getting the ball with 30 seconds, no time outs and an 8 point deficit.

Yesterday at the end of the game, the coaches made the decision to play for the field goal to win. Cousins moved the Vikings to the 20 yard line and the clock was able to wind down to 2 seconds before calling timeout. The kicker missed a FG of less than 40 yards. Is that failure on Cousins? Last week Cousins moved the offense to where we tied the game and forced OT in the last 2 minutes. In the last two minutes of OT he moved the offense in FG range for the win, except Cook fumbled. Is that failure on Cousins?

The whole argument that rating a QB boils down to the last 2 minutes of a half just doesn't hold up. There are too many variables.

quote:

ORIGINAL: beo

The hilariously sad thing about Sunday's game...

Other team trots out their kicker for 37 yarder to win it(or a 62 yarder)... Vikings fans resigned to the fact they have lost the game.

Vikings trot out their kicker for 37 yarder to win it... Vikings fans resigned to the fact they have lost the game.

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

Here is a nutshell problem with analytics, which are very useful in context, but can be very dangerous out of context.

First, the Vikings' outcomes on field goals in previous years are completely irrelevant to the next FG they attempt, unless their blocking scheme is both the same as previously and somehow integral. Everything else is different except the uniforms.

Second, regarding the bolded, that is untrue. A hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical season had a 63.5% chance to make the first down. If that hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical game has a 56% chance of making it, they should theoretically go for it. The 2021 Vikings playing in this specific game with this specific OL had a completely different probability, and the best data was the previous play:

(2:00 - 2nd) D.Cook up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (C.Peters, J.Hicks). MIN-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Further, the specific group of personnel that would block the next play has a specific history in short yardage situations and, spoiler alert, it's not good. In fact, particularly with regard to Bradbury and Cleveland, their ability to push forward has been abysmal. Maybe if you go behind Udoh you're better off, but he was blocking on that last play as well.

It also makes a difference in the calculus where you are on the field. Fail and you're giving up a field goal at a minimum.

I think the Vikings should go for it on fourth down more than they do, and in general they should embrace more risk, such as "passing" when it's not expected. But this kind of BS from the analytics department is idiocy, not just in sports, but in the entire rest of our lives from the grocery store to the doctor's office to Wall Street and beyond. Killing us, literally.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

Here is a nutshell problem with analytics, which are very useful in context, but can be very dangerous out of context.

First, the Vikings' outcomes on field goals in previous years are completely irrelevant to the next FG they attempt, unless their blocking scheme is both the same as previously and somehow integral. Everything else is different except the uniforms.

Second, regarding the bolded, that is untrue. A hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical season had a 63.5% chance to make the first down. If that hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical game has a 56% chance of making it, they should theoretically go for it. The 2021 Vikings playing in this specific game with this specific OL had a completely different probability, and the best data was the previous play:

(2:00 - 2nd) D.Cook up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (C.Peters, J.Hicks). MIN-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Further, the specific group of personnel that would block the next play has a specific history in short yardage situations and, spoiler alert, it's not good. In fact, particularly with regard to Bradbury and Cleveland, their ability to push forward has been abysmal. Maybe if you go behind Udoh you're better off, but he was blocking on that last play as well.

It also makes a difference in the calculus where you are on the field. Fail and you're giving up a field goal at a minimum.

I think the Vikings should go for it on fourth down more than they do, and in general they should embrace more risk, such as "passing" when it's not expected. But this kind of BS from the analytics department is idiocy, not just in sports, but in the entire rest of our lives from the grocery store to the doctor's office to Wall Street and beyond. Killing us, literally.

I completely agree that stats are almost always skewed ... no situation is exactly the same / there is no way to duplicate every variable ...

That's why PFF is a joke ... they have no knowledge of the playcall or individual assignments and they are going to rate performance?

However, I think you go too far dismissing our previous kicker history as non-influential or irrelevant to the current kicker situation. The consistency of poor performance is an ongoing trend ... Yes different players and situations but I would flip it that around to common factors that are influencing performance over 7 years.

By pointing to Cook getting dinged and field position, I think you are minimizing the need this past Sunday for taking a greater risk – that you end up saying we need to do. Waiting for the perfect situation to take a risk ... is just another way of saying risk averse ... the result of which are lower returns.

Who knows. Maybe Joseph busts through against the Seahawks and has a Daniel Carlson-Paul on the road to Damascus-like turnaround ... we all desperately hope so ... but if the trend continues with Joseph ...

I am going to put my money on Zimmer's ball peen hammer approach to human psychology as a definite common factor. Marked on my analytics spreadsheet under column 'Distractions' / on row marked 'the glowering red face on the sideline'.

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

Here is a nutshell problem with analytics, which are very useful in context, but can be very dangerous out of context.

First, the Vikings' outcomes on field goals in previous years are completely irrelevant to the next FG they attempt, unless their blocking scheme is both the same as previously and somehow integral. Everything else is different except the uniforms.

Second, regarding the bolded, that is untrue. A hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical season had a 63.5% chance to make the first down. If that hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical game has a 56% chance of making it, they should theoretically go for it. The 2021 Vikings playing in this specific game with this specific OL had a completely different probability, and the best data was the previous play:

(2:00 - 2nd) D.Cook up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (C.Peters, J.Hicks). MIN-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Further, the specific group of personnel that would block the next play has a specific history in short yardage situations and, spoiler alert, it's not good. In fact, particularly with regard to Bradbury and Cleveland, their ability to push forward has been abysmal. Maybe if you go behind Udoh you're better off, but he was blocking on that last play as well.

It also makes a difference in the calculus where you are on the field. Fail and you're giving up a field goal at a minimum.

I think the Vikings should go for it on fourth down more than they do, and in general they should embrace more risk, such as "passing" when it's not expected. But this kind of BS from the analytics department is idiocy, not just in sports, but in the entire rest of our lives from the grocery store to the doctor's office to Wall Street and beyond. Killing us, literally.

I completely agree that stats are almost always skewed ... no situation is exactly the same / there is no way to duplicate every variable ...

That's why PFF is a joke ... they have no knowledge of the playcall or individual assignments and they are going to rate performance?

However, I think you go too far dismissing our previous kicker history as non-influential or irrelevant to the current kicker situation. The consistency of poor performance is an ongoing trend ... Yes different players and situations but I would flip it that around to common factors that are influencing performance over 7 years.

By pointing to Cook getting dinged and field position, I think you are minimizing the need this past Sunday for taking a greater risk – that you end up saying we need to do. Waiting for the perfect situation to take a risk ... is just another way of saying risk averse ... the result of which are lower returns.

Who knows. Maybe Joseph busts through against the Seahawks and has a Daniel Carlson-Paul on the road to Damascus-like turnaround ... we all desperately hope so ... but if the trend continues with Joseph ...

I am going to put my money on Zimmer's ball peen hammer approach to human psychology as a definite common factor. Marked on my analytics spreadsheet under column 'Distractions' / on row marked 'the glowering red face on the sideline'.

Yeah, in thinking about it, I believe it's possible that Zimmer has already gotten into his head, though he came through last week in the clutch from 50+. I would still argue that all risk is not created equal, and just like last week when virtually everyone roasted the Cincy coach for going for it in what seemed to be a game-turning lapse in judgment, going for it there in that situation at that place on the field with that clock makes less than zero sense to me.