Talk Vikes and Other MN Sports Talk Vikes and Other MN Sports

Forums  Register  Login  My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums 

Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ  Ticket List  Log Out

RE: General Vikes Talk

 
Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [The Minnesota Vikings] >> Vikes Talk >> RE: General Vikes Talk Page: <<   < prev  209 210 [211] 212 213   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:09:38 AM   
Tom Sykes

 

Posts: 4587
Joined: 7/27/2007
Status: online
After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

< Message edited by Tom Sykes -- 9/21/2021 10:14:30 AM >
Post #: 5251
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:16:13 AM   
Tom Sykes

 

Posts: 4587
Joined: 7/27/2007
Status: online
I think my new signature for the remainder of the Zimmer era is going to be ...

"If you look at it more closely, it's even worse ..."
Post #: 5252
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:20:24 AM   
TJSweens


Posts: 42408
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ush

Haven’t posted in a while as life just seems to keep getting in the way. I enjoy catching up each week and reading the varying opinions so I’ll throw in mine:

1. I really dislike Cousins and think a lot of the team feels the same way. That being said, I really don’t place any blame on him for the 0-2 start. He is what he is....a very accurate passer with a strong arm who typically needs time to throw. You can tell he has worked to try and be more mobile and even had a couple of big runs the first two games. He is just limited physically. This offense hasn’t been the problem since the middle of last season IMO. They have been productive despite a bad oline and have put us in a position to win the first 2 games this year.

2. I wanted Zimmer to try and get more yards before the potential game winning kick. It might be just my “Vikings mentality” but I fully expected him to miss that kick.

3, I am very interested in how they play this week. Usually this kind of a play (missed kick) kills a team but I like what I’m hearing from Joseph and Theilen and how they are reacting to this. They seem to be rallying together. I think the team feels like they should be in a better position and are going to go and try to prove something this week. I could be totally wrong but just a gut feeling I get. If they get blown out I’ll say Zim has lost the team. I just don’t see it happening.

4. I feel like, for the first time in a long time, we have a punter who can boom one from our own endzone when we need it.

5. Welcome back Danielle. Pay the man!

6. Very disappointed in the run defense so far. I thought we’d be tougher up the gut with Pierce and Tomlinson but I see them getting pushed back a lot. Maybe it’s a matter of rarely playing with 3 LB’s but we seem to give up at least 5 yds every play on the ground.

7. Dantzler needs to just play. Breeland has shown nothing in the preseason and regular season so far. We had some bad luck with Gladney and injuries with Mike Hughes that have really set back our secondary. I don’t know that we have enough on the roster to fix this so our so-called DB guru needs to somehow work some magic with this group. The pass rush can offset some of that and I think we’ll see more pressure with the home field advantage but I fully expect our pass defense to struggle on the road especially.

8. Pleasant surprises so far: KJ Osborn, Dantzler when he played this week, passing offense continuing it’s success without Irv, creativity on offense and punting.

9. Disappointments so far: Tomlinson, Harrison (especially based on contract extension), defense overall, health issues with Barr after missing most of last season, Darrisaw injury as well and losing 2 games we easily should have won.

Good summary … I agree with most …

I'll second that. Ush, please post more often. We miss your insight.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 5253
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:22:12 AM   
Bill Jandro

 

Posts: 17183
Joined: 8/13/2007
Status: online
Breeland needs to take a seat. Zim needs to start Danzler and have Boyd first guy off the bench.

The fact that Breeland is veteran doesn't mean squat. He clearly sux.

_____________________________

Oline...early and often this draft
Post #: 5254
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:28:25 AM   
Karl Juhnke


Posts: 11444
Joined: 7/28/2007
Status: offline
Agree with most, except I do not fault them for settling for a 37 yard attempt and not trying to get closer. Under 40 is good enough for me. Too many bad things can happen running more plays.

_____________________________

Fire Bob Schnelker
Post #: 5255
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:31:55 AM   
Bill Jandro

 

Posts: 17183
Joined: 8/13/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

That is just flat out ugly. Definetly a Zimmer trademark.

_____________________________

Oline...early and often this draft
Post #: 5256
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:42:17 AM   
bohumm

 

Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

Here is a nutshell problem with analytics, which are very useful in context, but can be very dangerous out of context.

First, the Vikings' outcomes on field goals in previous years are completely irrelevant to the next FG they attempt, unless their blocking scheme is both the same as previously and somehow integral. Everything else is different except the uniforms.

Second, regarding the bolded, that is untrue. A hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical season had a 63.5% chance to make the first down. If that hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical game has a 56% chance of making it, they should theoretically go for it. The 2021 Vikings playing in this specific game with this specific OL had a completely different probability, and the best data was the previous play:

(2:00 - 2nd) D.Cook up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (C.Peters, J.Hicks). MIN-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Further, the specific group of personnel that would block the next play has a specific history in short yardage situations and, spoiler alert, it's not good. In fact, particularly with regard to Bradbury and Cleveland, their ability to push forward has been abysmal. Maybe if you go behind Udoh you're better off, but he was blocking on that last play as well.

It also makes a difference in the calculus where you are on the field. Fail and you're giving up a field goal at a minimum.

I think the Vikings should go for it on fourth down more than they do, and in general they should embrace more risk, such as "passing" when it's not expected. But this kind of BS from the analytics department is idiocy, not just in sports, but in the entire rest of our lives from the grocery store to the doctor's office to Wall Street and beyond. Killing us, literally.
Post #: 5257
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:46:36 AM   
TJSweens


Posts: 42408
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

That is just flat out ugly. Definetly a Zimmer trademark.

The last two minutes of the first half was one continuous coaching cluster f***.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 5258
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 10:51:28 AM   
Ricky J


Posts: 16756
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

That is just flat out ugly. Definetly a Zimmer trademark.

The last two minutes of the first half was one continuous coaching cluster f***.

SO ... the new data out that puts Kirk at the bottom of the "last 4 minutes of the halves success rate" can be argued to be on the coaches more than our QB?
Post #: 5259
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 11:00:35 AM   
Ricky J


Posts: 16756
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

Agree with most, except I do not fault them for settling for a 37 yard attempt and not trying to get closer. Under 40 is good enough for me. Too many bad things can happen running more plays.

Which is what a conservative coach (not being negative here) would do ...

We have witnessed Cousins being smoothered before he gets 3 quick steps in with no chance at getting rid of the ball a time or two
Post #: 5260
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 11:20:26 AM   
TJSweens


Posts: 42408
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens
The last two minutes of the first half was one continuous coaching cluster f***.

SO ... the new data out that puts Kirk at the bottom of the "last 4 minutes of the halves success rate" can be argued to be on the coaches more than our QB?

There is lot more to success rate in the last 2 minutes than the QB. If you want to put all the blame on the QB, you have to assume that all other components are equal. You have to assume everybody in the NFL has comparable coaching, line play, skill position players, etc. You also have to assume all last 2 minute scenarios are equal, which they clearly are not. Getting the ball with a full two minutes, and a 3 point deficit is very different than getting the ball with 30 seconds, no time outs and an 8 point deficit.

Yesterday at the end of the game, the coaches made the decision to play for the field goal to win. Cousins moved the Vikings to the 20 yard line and the clock was able to wind down to 2 seconds before calling timeout. The kicker missed a FG of less than 40 yards. Is that failure on Cousins? Last week Cousins moved the offense to where we tied the game and forced OT in the last 2 minutes. In the last two minutes of OT he moved the offense in FG range for the win, except Cook fumbled. Is that failure on Cousins?

The whole argument that rating a QB boils down to the last 2 minutes of a half just doesn't hold up. There are too many variables.

< Message edited by TJSweens -- 9/21/2021 11:21:26 AM >


_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 5261
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 11:53:40 AM   
ronhextall


Posts: 5873
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens
The last two minutes of the first half was one continuous coaching cluster f***.

SO ... the new data out that puts Kirk at the bottom of the "last 4 minutes of the halves success rate" can be argued to be on the coaches more than our QB?

There is lot more to success rate in the last 2 minutes than the QB. If you want to put all the blame on the QB, you have to assume that all other components are equal. You have to assume everybody in the NFL has comparable coaching, line play, skill position players, etc. You also have to assume all last 2 minute scenarios are equal, which they clearly are not. Getting the ball with a full two minutes, and a 3 point deficit is very different than getting the ball with 30 seconds, no time outs and an 8 point deficit.

Yesterday at the end of the game, the coaches made the decision to play for the field goal to win. Cousins moved the Vikings to the 20 yard line and the clock was able to wind down to 2 seconds before calling timeout. The kicker missed a FG of less than 40 yards. Is that failure on Cousins? Last week Cousins moved the offense to where we tied the game and forced OT in the last 2 minutes. In the last two minutes of OT he moved the offense in FG range for the win, except Cook fumbled. Is that failure on Cousins?

The whole argument that rating a QB boils down to the last 2 minutes of a half just doesn't hold up. There are too many variables.


Tom Brady won a Super Bowl with a kick longer than what was missed Sunday.

I don't blame Cousins, he did as much as Zimmer would let him do. If Zimmer is going to be scared to win because of his history what the Vikings have is basically a scared shaking bowl of Jello at the controls.

< Message edited by ronhextall -- 9/21/2021 11:55:28 AM >
Post #: 5262
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 12:13:49 PM   
Brad H


Posts: 21363
Joined: 8/16/2007
From: Parts Unknown
Status: online
At this point, I think it is time to start the "Replace Spielman" chant among the fans. This guy has had 10 years to build the franchise to a championship level and we have gotten nothing but wishes and empty promises.

I know that Zimmer and Cousins get a lot of heat, and for good reason. But Spielman is the guy running the show, and has failed to build a quality franchise. He's overpaid greatly for some and neglected obvious needs...REPEATEDLY!

Our o-line has been a mess for five years. Despite an occasional veteran signing during the off-season, he has whiffed far more often than landed when it comes to offensive linemen.

The kicking game has been a disaster for six years. Whether it is by luck or just bad play, it still has not been addressed adequately. I ask myself, how hard is this? It's not like kickers are paid like franchise running backs or quarterbacks.

His overpaying for Cousins has had a tremendous effect on the ability to build parts of the team with obvious needs. It would be one thing if Cousins were a top-5 or even 10 quarterback, but he isn't. We can go back and forth on that all you want, but the guy just isn't a gamer and shows horrific leadership skills. Now he has given Harrison Smith a four-year extension at the age of 32, worth about $15-million a year. Anybody think Smith is the #2 safety in the league, because that's what he is getting paid to be? Only Jamal Adams makes more.

Spielman has also not held Zimmer accountable. That's his job. At some point, the same voice in the clubhouse gets tired to veterans. The offense has its moments, but the defense is supposed to be his bailiwick and it's a freaking mess. Despite concentrating heavy on defense this off-season, it looks like a bottom-10 defense yet again.

In addition to his underperforming as a talent evaluator and contract negotiator, Spielman has had repeated embarrassing moments as the GM of the team. He opted to keep Adrian Peterson on the club despite being charged with felony child abuse. Even signed him to a 3-year extension with the prospects of opening a new stadium. That's the face of your new franchise when opening a brand new stadium? Now, in face of the worst pandemic in US history, his team has the distinction of being the lowest vaccinated team in the league.

Anybody know what this guy's salary is? Whatever it is, I'll do it for half. I'm putting in my application today. I'll pay people in here to be my assistants.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 9/21/2021 12:43:43 PM >


_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!
Post #: 5263
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 12:23:06 PM   
TJSweens


Posts: 42408
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: offline
I'm all for cleaning house. Questionable draft choices. Questionable strategy of trading down year after year. Prioritizing the wrong players. Bad extensions. Outdated game plans. Bad in game decisions. It's been 10 years of being above average for the most part.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 5264
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 12:33:09 PM   
beo

 

Posts: 1741
Joined: 3/18/2009
Status: offline
The hilariously sad thing about Sunday's game...

Other team trots out their kicker for 37 yarder to win it(or a 62 yarder)... Vikings fans resigned to the fact they have lost the game.

Vikings trot out their kicker for 37 yarder to win it... Vikings fans resigned to the fact they have lost the game.
Post #: 5265
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 12:41:06 PM   
bohumm

 

Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
Status: offline
Obviously the regime has at least this season to show that their approach will work and, who knows, it still may. It's reasonable to think the cheese secondary (holes like Swiss and crumbles like Feta) will improve as they get the scheme down and learn each other, and Darrisaw might be all that so if he assumes LT at some point the line may improve exponentially. But it wasn't just Breeland and Hill who were struggling.

The offense scored 3 points in the second half and rushed for probably about 30 or 40 yards. The OL protection held up in part because Kirk got rid of the ball faster than normal and they ran few slow-developing pass plays (other than the WR screen). In other words, the offense wasn't good or even OK in the second half outside of the last drive.

Let this season play out, and if they don't contend for a Super Bowl, fire everyone. This team was built to play Zimmer ball, and Spiels hired Zim. If they can't do it this year, they likely never will.
Post #: 5266
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 1:09:34 PM   
Ush


Posts: 2251
Joined: 7/17/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: beo

The hilariously sad thing about Sunday's game...

Other team trots out their kicker for 37 yarder to win it(or a 62 yarder)... Vikings fans resigned to the fact they have lost the game.

Vikings trot out their kicker for 37 yarder to win it... Vikings fans resigned to the fact they have lost the game.


God....this is so true it’s depressing
Post #: 5267
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 1:24:51 PM   
Daniel Lee Young


Posts: 10976
Joined: 9/21/2013
Status: offline
I guess I’m along for year 54 of


Skol Vikings..

Bought 2 throwbacks Fran, and Paige

Fran could run around and make plays..

88 was beast mode.

PPE FOREVER.

_____________________________

"Thou shall not bear false witness”
I am WRATH, incarnate.
@RlyeeNicole’sDad
Post #: 5268
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 1:26:32 PM   
Daniel Lee Young


Posts: 10976
Joined: 9/21/2013
Status: offline
Can’t find my Jared Allen and 28 hangs in the closet of shame.

Public shame.

_____________________________

"Thou shall not bear false witness”
I am WRATH, incarnate.
@RlyeeNicole’sDad
Post #: 5269
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 1:40:28 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

Posts: 4587
Joined: 7/27/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

Here is a nutshell problem with analytics, which are very useful in context, but can be very dangerous out of context.

First, the Vikings' outcomes on field goals in previous years are completely irrelevant to the next FG they attempt, unless their blocking scheme is both the same as previously and somehow integral. Everything else is different except the uniforms.

Second, regarding the bolded, that is untrue. A hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical season had a 63.5% chance to make the first down. If that hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical game has a 56% chance of making it, they should theoretically go for it. The 2021 Vikings playing in this specific game with this specific OL had a completely different probability, and the best data was the previous play:

(2:00 - 2nd) D.Cook up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (C.Peters, J.Hicks). MIN-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Further, the specific group of personnel that would block the next play has a specific history in short yardage situations and, spoiler alert, it's not good. In fact, particularly with regard to Bradbury and Cleveland, their ability to push forward has been abysmal. Maybe if you go behind Udoh you're better off, but he was blocking on that last play as well.

It also makes a difference in the calculus where you are on the field. Fail and you're giving up a field goal at a minimum.

I think the Vikings should go for it on fourth down more than they do, and in general they should embrace more risk, such as "passing" when it's not expected. But this kind of BS from the analytics department is idiocy, not just in sports, but in the entire rest of our lives from the grocery store to the doctor's office to Wall Street and beyond. Killing us, literally.

I completely agree that stats are almost always skewed ... no situation is exactly the same / there is no way to duplicate every variable ...

That's why PFF is a joke ... they have no knowledge of the playcall or individual assignments and they are going to rate performance?

However, I think you go too far dismissing our previous kicker history as non-influential or irrelevant to the current kicker situation. The consistency of poor performance is an ongoing trend ... Yes different players and situations but I would flip it that around to common factors that are influencing performance over 7 years.

By pointing to Cook getting dinged and field position, I think you are minimizing the need this past Sunday for taking a greater risk – that you end up saying we need to do in general. Waiting for the perfect situation to take a risk ... is just another way of saying low risk ... which we already are.

Who knows. Maybe Joseph busts through against the Seahawks and has a Daniel Carlson-Paul on the road to Damascus-like turnaround ... we all desperately hope so ... but if the trend continues with Joseph ...

I am going to put my money on Zimmer's ball peen hammer approach to human psychology as a definite common factor. Marked on my analytics spreadsheet under column 'Distractions' / on row marked 'the glowering red face on the sideline'.

< Message edited by Tom Sykes -- 9/21/2021 1:52:10 PM >
Post #: 5270
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 1:48:46 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

Posts: 4587
Joined: 7/27/2007
Status: online
Hopefully, the DL will perform better ... chupacabra-rabbit Kyler Murray had to be good preparation for chicken with his head cut off Wilson.

Griffen will help, hope he makes it back.
Post #: 5271
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 1:52:33 PM   
bohumm

 

Posts: 5705
Joined: 10/28/2007
From: Altadena, CA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

Here is a nutshell problem with analytics, which are very useful in context, but can be very dangerous out of context.

First, the Vikings' outcomes on field goals in previous years are completely irrelevant to the next FG they attempt, unless their blocking scheme is both the same as previously and somehow integral. Everything else is different except the uniforms.

Second, regarding the bolded, that is untrue. A hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical season had a 63.5% chance to make the first down. If that hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical game has a 56% chance of making it, they should theoretically go for it. The 2021 Vikings playing in this specific game with this specific OL had a completely different probability, and the best data was the previous play:

(2:00 - 2nd) D.Cook up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (C.Peters, J.Hicks). MIN-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Further, the specific group of personnel that would block the next play has a specific history in short yardage situations and, spoiler alert, it's not good. In fact, particularly with regard to Bradbury and Cleveland, their ability to push forward has been abysmal. Maybe if you go behind Udoh you're better off, but he was blocking on that last play as well.

It also makes a difference in the calculus where you are on the field. Fail and you're giving up a field goal at a minimum.

I think the Vikings should go for it on fourth down more than they do, and in general they should embrace more risk, such as "passing" when it's not expected. But this kind of BS from the analytics department is idiocy, not just in sports, but in the entire rest of our lives from the grocery store to the doctor's office to Wall Street and beyond. Killing us, literally.

I completely agree that stats are almost always skewed ... no situation is exactly the same / there is no way to duplicate every variable ...

That's why PFF is a joke ... they have no knowledge of the playcall or individual assignments and they are going to rate performance?

However, I think you go too far dismissing our previous kicker history as non-influential or irrelevant to the current kicker situation. The consistency of poor performance is an ongoing trend ... Yes different players and situations but I would flip it that around to common factors that are influencing performance over 7 years.

By pointing to Cook getting dinged and field position, I think you are minimizing the need this past Sunday for taking a greater risk – that you end up saying we need to do. Waiting for the perfect situation to take a risk ... is just another way of saying risk averse ... the result of which are lower returns.

Who knows. Maybe Joseph busts through against the Seahawks and has a Daniel Carlson-Paul on the road to Damascus-like turnaround ... we all desperately hope so ... but if the trend continues with Joseph ...

I am going to put my money on Zimmer's ball peen hammer approach to human psychology as a definite common factor. Marked on my analytics spreadsheet under column 'Distractions' / on row marked 'the glowering red face on the sideline'.

Yeah, in thinking about it, I believe it's possible that Zimmer has already gotten into his head, though he came through last week in the clutch from 50+. I would still argue that all risk is not created equal, and just like last week when virtually everyone roasted the Cincy coach for going for it in what seemed to be a game-turning lapse in judgment, going for it there in that situation at that place on the field with that clock makes less than zero sense to me.
Post #: 5272
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 2:03:58 PM   
Tom Sykes

 

Posts: 4587
Joined: 7/27/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: bohumm

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

After going back to find my source, its even worse than I quoted above:

(since 2014)

"The Vikings rank 28th in field goal percentage (80.9%) under Zimmer. Including the playoffs, Zimmer-coached teams are 15 of 23 (65%) on field goals in the fourth quarter and overtime when they are tied or losing by 1-3 points. That ranks 30th. It’s even worse in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime when the Vikings are tied or losing by 1-3 points. In those situations, they’re 4 of 10, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information."

https://www.espn.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/31368/mike-zimmer-defends-greg-joseph-as-kicking-woes-continue-to-haunt-vikings


More from the blog ...


"Because the Vikings found themselves in a position where they needed a game-winner to beat Arizona, Joseph’s miss will often be remembered as the reason why they lost this game.

But there were other factors. Facing a fourth-and-one at their own 34 with 1:54 left in the first half, the Vikings had a 63.5 chance to get a first down, according to ESPN’s Win Probability. According to those metrics, if you have a 56 percent chance or better to convert, you go for it. The Vikings punted, and Kyler Murray hit Rondale Moore for a 77-yard TD on the next play. In fact, three of the five worst coaching decisions made in Week 2 -- including the top two -- were Zimmer decisions to punt, according to EdjSports, which tracks coaching decisions using a win expectancy model.

Factors also included scoring just three points in the second half -- after a terrific first half -- and the defense yielding 474 yards.

But none of those things is as magnified as the emotion behind a game-deciding missed field goal."

......

Its all good. We're going to smash Seattle this week. Gawd I love coffee.

Here is a nutshell problem with analytics, which are very useful in context, but can be very dangerous out of context.

First, the Vikings' outcomes on field goals in previous years are completely irrelevant to the next FG they attempt, unless their blocking scheme is both the same as previously and somehow integral. Everything else is different except the uniforms.

Second, regarding the bolded, that is untrue. A hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical season had a 63.5% chance to make the first down. If that hypothetical team playing in a hypothetical game has a 56% chance of making it, they should theoretically go for it. The 2021 Vikings playing in this specific game with this specific OL had a completely different probability, and the best data was the previous play:

(2:00 - 2nd) D.Cook up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (C.Peters, J.Hicks). MIN-D.Cook was injured during the play.

Further, the specific group of personnel that would block the next play has a specific history in short yardage situations and, spoiler alert, it's not good. In fact, particularly with regard to Bradbury and Cleveland, their ability to push forward has been abysmal. Maybe if you go behind Udoh you're better off, but he was blocking on that last play as well.

It also makes a difference in the calculus where you are on the field. Fail and you're giving up a field goal at a minimum.

I think the Vikings should go for it on fourth down more than they do, and in general they should embrace more risk, such as "passing" when it's not expected. But this kind of BS from the analytics department is idiocy, not just in sports, but in the entire rest of our lives from the grocery store to the doctor's office to Wall Street and beyond. Killing us, literally.

I completely agree that stats are almost always skewed ... no situation is exactly the same / there is no way to duplicate every variable ...

That's why PFF is a joke ... they have no knowledge of the playcall or individual assignments and they are going to rate performance?

However, I think you go too far dismissing our previous kicker history as non-influential or irrelevant to the current kicker situation. The consistency of poor performance is an ongoing trend ... Yes different players and situations but I would flip it that around to common factors that are influencing performance over 7 years.

By pointing to Cook getting dinged and field position, I think you are minimizing the need this past Sunday for taking a greater risk – that you end up saying we need to do. Waiting for the perfect situation to take a risk ... is just another way of saying risk averse ... the result of which are lower returns.

Who knows. Maybe Joseph busts through against the Seahawks and has a Daniel Carlson-Paul on the road to Damascus-like turnaround ... we all desperately hope so ... but if the trend continues with Joseph ...

I am going to put my money on Zimmer's ball peen hammer approach to human psychology as a definite common factor. Marked on my analytics spreadsheet under column 'Distractions' / on row marked 'the glowering red face on the sideline'.

Yeah, in thinking about it, I believe it's possible that Zimmer has already gotten into his head, though he came through last week in the clutch from 50+. I would still argue that all risk is not created equal, and just like last week when virtually everyone roasted the Cincy coach for going for it in what seemed to be a game-turning lapse in judgment, going for it there in that situation at that place on the field with that clock makes less than zero sense to me.

I can't remember at what point in the game ... but didn't Joseph miss a kick against Cincy that got re-kicked because of a penalty against a Cincy lineman? Was that the reg time ending kick?

Anyway ... I agree that all risk is not created equal ... maybe I'm just more desperate than you are.
Post #: 5273
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 2:04:17 PM   
Daniel Lee Young


Posts: 10976
Joined: 9/21/2013
Status: offline
Joseph… is not how we lost, the FG to win, is never a given on this Franchise.

Gary Anderson.

It’s a situational game, decisions are made on the fly.

I honestly thought we had the win until foot met ball, about 2 second in.. it was .. omg.. again… how typical.

_____________________________

"Thou shall not bear false witness”
I am WRATH, incarnate.
@RlyeeNicole’sDad
Post #: 5274
RE: General Vikes Talk - 9/21/2021 2:04:19 PM   
Steve Lentz


Posts: 35881
Joined: 7/19/2007
From: Omaha
Status: offline
Cousins played very well. He has been a positive factor in both games. Put the team in position to win both games.

_____________________________

" I believe empathy is the most essential quality of civilization"
Post #: 5275
Page:   <<   < prev  209 210 [211] 212 213   next >   >>
All Forums >> [The Minnesota Vikings] >> Vikes Talk >> RE: General Vikes Talk Page: <<   < prev  209 210 [211] 212 213   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts




Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.5.5 Unicode